Risk-informed decision-making in the presence of epistemic uncertainty

An important issue in risk analysis is the distinction between epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. In this paper, the use of distinct representation formats for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is advocated, the latter being modelled by sets of possible values. Modern uncertainty theories based on convex sets of probabilities are known to be instrumental for hybrid representations where aleatory and epistemic components of uncertainty remain distinct. Simple uncertainty representation techniques based on fuzzy intervals and p-boxes are used in practice. This paper outlines a risk analysis methodology from elicitation of knowledge about parameters to decision. It proposes an elicitation methodology where the chosen representation format depends on the nature and the amount of available information. Uncertainty propagation methods then blend Monte Carlo simulation and interval analysis techniques. Nevertheless, results provided by these techniques, often in terms of probability intervals, may be too complex to interpret for a decision-maker and we, therefore, propose to compute a unique indicator of the likelihood of risk, called confidence index. It explicitly accounts for the decisionmaker’s attitude in the face of ambiguity. This step takes place at the end of the risk analysis process, when no further collection of evidence is possible that might reduce the ambiguity due to epistemic uncertainty. This last feature stands in contrast with the Bayesian methodology, where epistemic uncertainties on input parameters are modelled by single subjective probabilities at the beginning of the risk analysis process.

Trading Energy ETFs with an Improved Moving Average Strategy

In this paper we employ the recently introduced improved moving average methodology of Papailias and Thomakos (2011) and we apply it in two energy ETFs. We compare it to the standard moving average methodology and the buy and hold strategy. Investors who are interested in energy-related sectors and trade using averages, could benefit by forming their strategies based on this improved moving average methodology as it returns higher profits accompanied by decreased risk (measured in terms of drawdown).

Implementing Evidence-informed Practice: International Perspectives

Pushing the Envelope: Future Directions for Evidence-informed Practice

Chapter explores the complexity of implementing evidence-informed practice within the child welfare system in Ontario, Canada. The paper explores the work of Practice and Research Together (PART; www. partcanada.org)

Promoting Evidence-informed Practice in Child Welfare in Ontario: Progress, Challenges and Future Directions.

Paper explores the findings from a province-wide program evaluation of Practice and Research Together (PART: www. partcanada.org); The paper is a unique evaluation of a knowledge exchange program and provides interesting analysis of how front-line practitioners, supervisors and senior leaders engage, utilize and contribute to evidence-informed practice.

Counselling for sight loss: Using systematic case study research to build a client informed practice model

There is compelling evidence to suggest that acquired sight loss negatively impacts on emotional well-being. Despite increasing recognition of the need to provide emotional support for people with sight loss, we still do not fully understand what counselling interventions help and why they help. The aim of this study was to examine the process and outcome of counselling for a 70-year-old client who had experienced complete, irreversible, post-operative sight loss in order to gain a deeper understanding of client-defined helpful aspects of therapy. A Hermeneutic Single-Case Efficacy Design study was undertaken having received ethical approval from the University's Research Ethics Committee. The client received six sessions of counselling from a vision-impaired counsellor working within a pluralistic framework. Measures were completed by the client at every session, as well as at pre-and post-counselling. All sessions were recorded and transcribed. The client also participated in pre-and post-counselling interviews. Data formed a rich case record that was analysed by a quasi-judicial enquiry team. Results suggested that this was a successful outcome case. Client-defined helpful aspects of therapy were (1) feeling understood; (2) being able to express emotions around the loss of sight; (3) finding a new identity; (4) finding ways to cope with fear, loss, dependency, and other people's perceptions; (5) exploring the possibility of a positive future without sight; (6) making sense of things; and (7) finding ways to become more socially connected. Relevant therapeutic tasks are proposed, and four key aspects of therapy are identified, which may have implications for the development of a practice model.

Momentum Trading in New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Energy Stocks

This paper investigates whether the momentum effect exists in the NYSE energy sector. Momentum is defined as the strategy that buys (sells) these stocks that are best (worst) performers, over a pre-specified past period of time (the 'look-back' period), by constructing equally weighted portfolios. Different momentum strategies are obtained by changing the number of stocks included in these portfolios, as well as the look-back period. Next, their performance is compared against two benchmarks: the equally weighted portfolio consisting of most stocks in the NYSE energy index and the market portfolio, and the S&P500 index. The results indicate that the momentum effect is strongly present in the energy sector, and leads to highly profitable portfolios, improving the risk-reward measures and easily outperforming both benchmarks.

Trading-up on unmet expectations? Evaluating consumers’ expectations in online premium grocery shopping logistics

Geography and retail store location are inherently bound together; this study links food retail changes to systemic logistics changes in an emerging market. Current logistic practices underplay demand-led models and online market evolution in large metropolises such as Istanbul, Rio de Janeiro, and Delhi. The later include raising income and education, access to a wide range of technologies, traffic and transport difficulties, lagging retail provision, changing family structure and roles, as well as changing food culture and taste. The study incorporates demand for premium products defined by Kapferer and Bastien, (2009b) as comprising a broad variety of higher quality and unique or distinctive products and brands including in grocery organic ranges, healthy options, allergy free selections, and international and gourmet/specialty products through an online grocery model (n=356) that integrates a novel view of home delivery (HD) in Istanbul. More importantly from a logistic perspective our model incorporates any products from any online vendors broadening the range beyond listed items found in any traditional online supermarkets. Data collected via phone survey and analysed via structural equation modelling (SEM) suggest that the offer of online premium products significantly affects consumers’ delivery logistics expectations. We discuss logistics operations and business management implications, identifying the emerging geography of logistic models which respond to consumers’ unmet expectations using multiple sourcing and consolidation points.

Empowering Human Services Organizations to Embrace Evidence-informed Practice: International Best Practices

Human service organizations are increasingly using knowledge as a mechanism for implementing change. Knowledge emerging from many sources that may include academic publications, grey literature, and service user and practitioner wisdom contributes toward informing best practice. The question is: how do we harness this knowledge to make practice more effective? This paper synthesizes the lessons learned from eight international organizations that have made a commitment to knowledge mobilization as an important priority in their mission and operation. The paper provides a conceptual model, tools and resources to help human services organizations create strategies for building, enhancing or sustaining their knowledge mobilization efforts. The paper describes a flexible blueprint for human service organizations to leverage knowledge mobilization efforts at all levels of service delivery.