The Baltic Dry Index: cyclicalities, forecasting and hedging strategies

The cyclical properties of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and their implications for forecasting performance are investigated. We find that changes in the BDI can lead to permanent shocks to trade of major exporting economies. In our forecasting exercise, we show that commodities and trigonometric regression can lead to improved predictions and then use our forecasting results to perform an investment exercise and to show how they can be used for improved risk management in the freight sector.

Branding strategies for high technology products: The effects of consumer and product innovativeness

Choice of an appropriate branding strategy is a critical determinant of new product success. Prior work on fast-moving-consumer-goods (FMCG) prescribes that new products carry new (vs. existing) brand names to appeal to earlier adopters - a critical target for new products. However, such a prescription may not be prudent for high-technology (HT) products, as they often involve considerably more consumer perceived risk than FMCG. By drawing on Dowling and Staelin's (1994) framework of perceived-risk handling, we propose that both earlier and later adopters will favor existing brands to cope with the elevated risk associated with an innovative HT product. Two studies - one conducted in an experimental setting and the other in a field setting - support the proposition that both earlier and later adopters respond more favorably to existing (vs. new) brands on innovative HT products.

Partially Ordered Preferences in Decision Trees: Computing Strategies with Imprecision in Probabilities

Partially ordered preferences generally lead to choices that do not abide by standard expected utility guidelines; often such preferences are revealed by imprecision in probability values. We investigate five criteria for strategy selection in decision trees with imprecision in probabilities: “extensive” Γ-maximin and Γ-maximax, interval dominance, maximality and E-admissibility. We present algorithms that generate strategies for all these criteria; our main contribution is an algorithm for Eadmissibility that runs over admissible strategies rather than over sets of probability distributions.

Potential strategies for the eradication of multi-drug resistant Gram-negative bacterial infections

Antimicrobial resistance is one of the leading threats to society. The increasing burden of multidrug-resistant Gram-negative infection is particularly concerning as such bacteria are demonstrating resistance to nearly all currently licensed therapies. Various strategies have been hypothesized to treat multidrug-resistant Gram-negative infections including: targeting the Gram-negative outer membrane; neutralization of lipopolysaccharide; inhibition of bacterial efflux pumps and prevention of protein folding. Silver and silver nanoparticles, fusogenic liposomes and nanotubes are potential strategies for extending the activity of licensed, Gram-positive selective, antibiotics to Gram-negatives. This may serve as a strategy to fill the current void in pharmaceutical development in the short term. This review outlines the most promising strategies that could be implemented to solve the threat of multidrug-resistant Gram-negative infections