SN 2012ec: mass of the progenitor from PESSTO follow-up of the photospheric phase

We present the results of a photometric and spectroscopic monitoring campaign of SN 2012ec, which exploded in the spiral galaxy NGC 1084, during the photospheric phase. The photometric light curve exhibits a plateau with luminosity L = 0.9 x 10(42) erg s(-1) and duration similar to 90 d, which is somewhat shorter than standard Type II-P supernovae (SNe). We estimate the nickel mass M(Ni-56) = 0.040 +/- 0.015 M-circle dot from the luminosity at the beginning of the radioactive tail of the light curve. The explosion parameters of SN 2012ec were estimated from the comparison of the bolometric light curve and the observed temperature and velocity evolution of the ejecta with predictions from hydrodynamical models. We derived an envelope mass of 12.6 M-circle dot, an initial progenitor radius of 1.6 x 10(13) cm and an explosion energy of 1.2 foe. These estimates agree with an independent study of the progenitor star identified in pre-explosion images, for which an initial mass of M = 14-22 M-circle dot was determined. We have applied the same analysis to two other Type II-P SNe (SNe 2012aw and 2012A), and carried out a comparison with the properties of SN 2012ec derived in this paper. We find a reasonable agreement between the masses of the progenitors obtained from pre-explosion images and masses derived from hydrodynamical models. We estimate the distance to SN 2012ec with the standardized candle method (SCM) and compare it with other estimates based on other primary and secondary indicators. SNe 2012A, 2012aw and 2012ec all follow the standard relations for the SCM for the use of Type II-P SNe as distance indicators.

Man-up Against Suicide

Male suicide rates are high in Western countries including the US and Canada. Underpinned by men’s resistance to health help-seeking and challenges diagnosing mental illness including male depression, suicide ends the lives of many men amid inflicting pain and grief on the family and friends who are left behind. Fuelled by the discordant relationship between men’s low rates of depression and high rates of suicide we embarked on a unique and novel photovoice study title Man-Up Against Suicide. Specifically, men who have contemplated suicide in the past, and individuals (men and women) who have lost a male partner, family member or friend to suicide were invited to take photographs representing their experiences with men’s suicide with the ultimate goal of messaging ‘at risk’ men that there are alternatives to taking one’s life. Participants subsequently completed semi-structured individual interviews narrating the photographs and providing captions to accompany their selected images. In this presentation we share the preliminary study findings along with some participant photographs and narratives as a means to discussing; 1) men’s experiences of suicidal behaviours and their management strategies; and, 2) how men’s and women’s experiences of losing a male to suicide can de-stigmatize men’s mental illness and raise public awareness about male suicide.

All-Cause Mortality up to and After Coronary Heart Disease and Stroke Events in European Middle-Aged Men The PRIME Study

Background and Purpose-The aim was to investigate prospectively the all-cause mortality risk up to and after coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke events in European middle-aged men.

Methods-The study population comprised 10 424 men 50 to 59 years of age recruited between 1991 and 1994 in France (N=7855) and Northern Ireland (N=2747) within the Prospective Epidemiological Study of Myocardial Infarction. Incident CHD and stroke events and deaths from all causes were prospectively registered during the 10-year follow-up. In Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis, CHD and stroke events during follow-up were used as time-dependent covariates.

Results-A total of 769 CHD and 132 stroke events were adjudicated, and 569 deaths up to and 66 after CHD or stroke occurred during follow-up. After adjustment for study country and cardiovascular risk factors, the hazard ratios of all-cause mortality were 1.58 (95% confidence interval 1.18-2.12) after CHD and 3.13 (95% confidence interval 1.98-4.92) after stroke.

Conclusions-These findings support continuous efforts to promote both primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

Long-Term Follow-Up of a Large Active Surveillance Cohort of Patients With Prostate Cancer

PURPOSE: Active surveillance is increasingly accepted as a treatment option for favorable-risk prostate cancer. Long-term follow-up has been lacking. In this study, we report the long-term outcome of a large active surveillance protocol in men with favorable-risk prostate cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS: In a prospective single-arm cohort study carried out at a single academic health sciences center, 993 men with favorable- or intermediate-risk prostate cancer were managed with an initial expectant approach. Intervention was offered for a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) doubling time of less than 3 years, Gleason score progression, or unequivocal clinical progression. Main outcome measures were overall and disease-specific survival, rate of treatment, and PSA failure rate in the treated patients.

RESULTS: Among the 819 survivors, the median follow-up time from the first biopsy is 6.4 years (range, 0.2 to 19.8 years). One hundred forty-nine (15%) of 993 patients died, and 844 patients are alive (censored rate, 85.0%). There were 15 deaths (1.5%) from prostate cancer. The 10- and 15-year actuarial cause-specific survival rates were 98.1% and 94.3%, respectively. An additional 13 patients (1.3%) developed metastatic disease and are alive with confirmed metastases (n = 9) or have died of other causes (n = 4). At 5, 10, and 15 years, 75.7%, 63.5%, and 55.0% of patients remained untreated and on surveillance. The cumulative hazard ratio for nonprostate-to-prostate cancer mortality was 9.2:1.

CONCLUSION: Active surveillance for favorable-risk prostate cancer is feasible and seems safe in the 15-year time frame. In our cohort, 2.8% of patients have developed metastatic disease, and 1.5% have died of prostate cancer. This mortality rate is consistent with expected mortality in favorable-risk patients managed with initial definitive intervention.

Towards core outcome set (COS) development: a follow-up descriptive survey of outcomes in Cochrane reviews

BACKGROUND: A core outcome set (COS) can address problems of outcome heterogeneity and outcome reporting bias in trials and systematic reviews, including Cochrane reviews, helping to reduce waste. One of the aims of the international Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials (COMET) Initiative is to link the development and use of COS with the outcomes specified and reported in Cochrane reviews, including the outcomes listed in the summary of findings (SoF) tables. As part of this work, an earlier exploratory survey of the outcomes of newly published 2007 and 2011 Cochrane reviews was performed. This survey examined the use of COS, the variety of specified outcomes, and outcome reporting in Cochrane reviews by Cochrane Review Group (CRG). To examine changes over time and to explore outcomes that were repeatedly specified over time in Cochrane reviews by CRG, we conducted a follow-up survey of outcomes in 2013 Cochrane reviews.

METHODS: A descriptive survey of outcomes in Cochrane reviews that were first published in 2013. Outcomes specified in the methods sections and reported in the results section of the Cochrane reviews were examined by CRG. We also explored the uptake of SoF tables, the number of outcomes included in these, and the quality of the evidence for the outcomes.

RESULTS: Across the 50 CRGs, 375 Cochrane reviews that included at least one study specified a total of 3142 outcomes. Of these outcomes, 32 % (1008) were not reported in the results section of these reviews. For 23 % (233) of these non-reported outcomes, we did not find any reason in the text of the review for this non-report. Fifty-seven percent (216/375) of reviews included a SoF table.

CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of specified outcomes that were reported in Cochrane reviews had increased in 2013 (68 %) compared to 2007 (61 %) and 2011 (65 %). Importantly, 2013 Cochrane reviews that did not report specified outcomes were twice as likely to provide an explanation for why the outcome was not reported. There has been an increased uptake of SoF tables in Cochrane reviews. Outcomes that were repeatedly specified in Cochrane reviews by CRG in 2007, 2011, and 2013 may assist COS development.

What’s behind Russia’s military build-up in Syria?

It seems unlikely that Moscow can hope for an outright victory in Syria’s civil war, so some kind of political compromise with the moderate opposition is in the offing. This, however, is at best a long shot given the hostility to Assad in the West and the intensity of the conflict in Syria.

Instead, the immediate priority seems to be to ensure a survival of the Syrian state and military institutions in the areas it can control, what one Russian observer called an “Alawite Israel” – a strip of land from the Mediterranean coast to Damascus, able to at least contain IS with some external support.

The Kremlin has consistently prioritised stability over revolutionary change and sovereign rights over humanitarian intervention. In fact, from the Russian point of view, the Western interventionist agenda of democratisation, which ignored local conditions, has made the situation in the Middle East worse – from Iraq to Libya and Syria.

Participating in a fruit and vegetable intervention trial improves longer term fruit and vegetable consumption and barriers to fruit and vegetable consumption: a follow-up of the ADIT study

BACKGROUND: Fruit and vegetable (FV) based intervention studies can be effective in increasing short term FV consumption. However, the longer term efficacy of such interventions is still unclear. The aim of the current study was to examine the maintenance of change in FV consumption 18-months after cessation of a FV intervention and to examine the effect of participating in a FV intervention on barriers to FV consumption.

METHODS: A follow-up of a randomised controlled FV trial in 83 older adults (habitually consuming ≤2 portions/day) was conducted. At baseline, participants were assigned to continue consuming ≤2 portions FV/day or consume ≥5 portions FV/day for 16-weeks. We assessed FV intake and barriers to FV consumption at baseline, end of intervention and 18-months post-intervention.

RESULTS: At 18-months, mean FV intakes in both groups were greater than baseline. The 5 portions/day group continued to show greater increases in FV consumption at 18-months than the 2 portions/day group (p < 0.01). At 18-months, both groups reported greater liking (p < 0.01) and ease in consuming FV (p = 0.001) while difficulties with consuming FV decreased (p < 0.001). The 2 portions/day group reported greater awareness of FV recommendations at 18-months (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS: Participating in a FV intervention can lead to longer-term positive changes in FV consumption regardless of original group allocation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical Trials.gov NCT00858728 .

Scaling Up Market Anomalies

This paper implements momentum among a host of market anomalies. Our investment universe consists of the 15 top (long-leg) and 15 bottom (short-leg) anomaly portfolios. The proposed active strategy buys (sells short) a subset of the top (bottom) anomaly portfolios based on past one-month return. The evidence shows statistically strong and economically meaningful persistence in anomaly payoffs. Our strategy consistently outperforms a naive benchmark that equal weights anomalies and yields an abnormal monthly return ranging between 1.27% and 1.47%. The persistence is robust to the post-2000 period, and various other considerations, and is stronger following episodes of high investor sentiment.