A dimensionless number for understanding the evolutionary dynamics of antigenically variable RNA viruses.

Antigenically variable RNA viruses are significant contributors to the burden of infectious disease worldwide. One reason for their ubiquity is their ability to escape herd immunity through rapid antigenic evolution and thereby to reinfect previously infected hosts. However, the ways in which these viruses evolve antigenically are highly diverse. Some have only limited diversity in the long-run, with every emergence of a new antigenic variant coupled with a replacement of the older variant. Other viruses rapidly accumulate antigenic diversity over time. Others still exhibit dynamics that can be considered evolutionary intermediates between these two extremes. Here, we present a theoretical framework that aims to understand these differences in evolutionary patterns by considering a virus's epidemiological dynamics in a given host population. Our framework, based on a dimensionless number, probabilistically anticipates patterns of viral antigenic diversification and thereby quantifies a virus's evolutionary potential. It is therefore similar in spirit to the basic reproduction number, the well-known dimensionless number which quantifies a pathogen's reproductive potential. We further outline how our theoretical framework can be applied to empirical viral systems, using influenza A/H3N2 as a case study. We end with predictions of our framework and work that remains to be done to further integrate viral evolutionary dynamics with disease ecology.

Migration and hedonic valuation: The case of air quality

Conventional hedonic techniques for estimating the value of local amenities rely on the assumption that households move freely among locations. We show that when moving is costly, the variation in housing prices and wages across locations may no longer reflect the value of differences in local amenities. We develop an alternative discrete-choice approach that models the household location decision directly, and we apply it to the case of air quality in US metro areas in 1990 and 2000. Because air pollution is likely to be correlated with unobservable local characteristics such as economic activity, we instrument for air quality using the contribution of distant sources to local pollution-excluding emissions from local sources, which are most likely to be correlated with local conditions. Our model yields an estimated elasticity of willingness to pay with respect to air quality of 0.34-0.42. These estimates imply that the median household would pay $149-$185 (in constant 1982-1984 dollars) for a one-unit reduction in average ambient concentrations of particulate matter. These estimates are three times greater than the marginal willingness to pay estimated by a conventional hedonic model using the same data. Our results are robust to a range of covariates, instrumenting strategies, and functional form assumptions. The findings also confirm the importance of instrumenting for local air pollution. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Polymorphisms in the ACE and ADRB2 genes and risks of aging-associated phenotypes: the case of myocardial infarction.

Multiple functions of the beta2-adrenergic receptor (ADRB2) and angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) genes warrant studies of their associations with aging-related phenotypes. We focus on multimarker analyses and analyses of the effects of compound genotypes of two polymorphisms in the ADRB2 gene, rs1042713 and rs1042714, and 11 polymorphisms of the ACE gene, on the risk of such an aging-associated phenotype as myocardial infarction (MI). We used the data from a genotyped sample of the Framingham Heart Study Offspring (FHSO) cohort (n = 1500) followed for about 36 years with six examinations. The ADRB2 rs1042714 (C-->G) polymorphism and two moderately correlated (r(2) = 0.77) ACE polymorphisms, rs4363 (A-->G) and rs12449782 (A-->G), were significantly associated with risks of MI in this aging cohort in multimarker models. Predominantly linked ACE genotypes exhibited opposite effects on MI risks, e.g., the AA (rs12449782) genotype had a detrimental effect, whereas the predominantly linked AA (rs4363) genotype exhibited a protective effect. This trade-off occurs as a result of the opposite effects of rare compound genotypes of the ACE polymorphisms with a single dose of the AG heterozygote. This genetic trade-off is further augmented by the selective modulating effect of the rs1042714 ADRB2 polymorphism. The associations were not altered by adjustment for common MI risk factors. The results suggest that effects of single specific genetic variants of the ADRB2 and ACE genes on MI can be readily altered by gene-gene or/and gene-environmental interactions, especially in large heterogeneous samples. Multimarker genetic analyses should benefit studies of complex aging-associated phenotypes.

Dynamics of Delta/Notch signaling on endomesoderm segregation in the sea urchin embryo.

Endomesoderm is the common progenitor of endoderm and mesoderm early in the development of many animals. In the sea urchin embryo, the Delta/Notch pathway is necessary for the diversification of this tissue, as are two early transcription factors, Gcm and FoxA, which are expressed in mesoderm and endoderm, respectively. Here, we provide a detailed lineage analysis of the cleavages leading to endomesoderm segregation, and examine the expression patterns and the regulatory relationships of three known regulators of this cell fate dichotomy in the context of the lineages. We observed that endomesoderm segregation first occurs at hatched blastula stage. Prior to this stage, Gcm and FoxA are co-expressed in the same cells, whereas at hatching these genes are detected in two distinct cell populations. Gcm remains expressed in the most vegetal endomesoderm descendant cells, while FoxA is downregulated in those cells and activated in the above neighboring cells. Initially, Delta is expressed exclusively in the micromeres, where it is necessary for the most vegetal endomesoderm cell descendants to express Gcm and become mesoderm. Our experiments show a requirement for a continuous Delta input for more than two cleavages (or about 2.5 hours) before Gcm expression continues in those cells independently of further Delta input. Thus, this study provides new insights into the timing mechanisms and the molecular dynamics of endomesoderm segregation during sea urchin embryogenesis and into the mode of action of the Delta/Notch pathway in mediating mesoderm fate.

Effect of different jump distributions on the dynamics of jump processes

The paper investigates stochastic processes forced by independent and identically distributed jumps occurring according to a Poisson process. The impact of different distributions of the jump amplitudes are analyzed for processes with linear drift. Exact expressions of the probability density functions are derived when jump amplitudes are distributed as exponential, gamma, and mixture of exponential distributions for both natural and reflecting boundary conditions. The mean level-crossing properties are studied in relation to the different jump amplitudes. As an example of application of the previous theoretical derivations, the role of different rainfall-depth distributions on an existing stochastic soil water balance model is analyzed. It is shown how the shape of distribution of daily rainfall depths plays a more relevant role on the soil moisture probability distribution as the rainfall frequency decreases, as predicted by future climatic scenarios. © 2010 The American Physical Society.

Consistency of financial interest disclosures in the biomedical literature: the case of coronary stents.

BACKGROUND: Disclosure of authors' financial interests has been proposed as a strategy for protecting the integrity of the biomedical literature. We examined whether authors' financial interests were disclosed consistently in articles on coronary stents published in 2006. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched PubMed for English-language articles published in 2006 that provided evidence or guidance regarding the use of coronary artery stents. We recorded article characteristics, including information about authors' financial disclosures. The main outcome measures were the prevalence, nature, and consistency of financial disclosures. There were 746 articles, 2985 authors, and 135 journals in the database. Eighty-three percent of the articles did not contain disclosure statements for any author (including declarations of no interests). Only 6% of authors had an article with a disclosure statement. In comparisons between articles by the same author, the types of disagreement were as follows: no disclosure statements vs declarations of no interests (64%); specific disclosures vs no disclosure statements (34%); and specific disclosures vs declarations of no interests (2%). Among the 75 authors who disclosed at least 1 relationship with an organization, there were 2 cases (3%) in which the organization was disclosed in every article the author wrote. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In the rare instances when financial interests were disclosed, they were not disclosed consistently, suggesting that there are problems with transparency in an area of the literature that has important implications for patient care. Our findings suggest that the inconsistencies we observed are due to both the policies of journals and the behavior of some authors.

Man's search for meaning: The case of Legos

We investigate how perceived meaning influences labor supply. In a laboratory setting, we manipulate the perceived meaning of simple, repetitive tasks and find a strong influence on subjects' labor supply. Despite the fact that the wage and the task are identical across the conditions in each experiment, subjects in the less meaningful conditions exhibit reservation wages that are consistently much higher than the subjects in the more meaningful conditions. The result replicates across different types of tasks. Moreover, in the more meaningful conditions, subjects' productivity influences labor supply more strongly. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Information programs for technology adoption: The case of energy-efficiency audits

We analyze technology adoption decisions of manufacturing plants in response to government-sponsored energy audits. Overall, plants adopt about half of the recommended energy-efficiency projects. Using fixed effects logit estimation, we find that adoption rates are higher for projects with shorter paybacks, lower costs, greater annual savings, higher energy prices, and greater energy conservation. Plants are 40% more responsive to initial costs than annual savings, suggesting that subsidies may be more effective at promoting energy-efficient technologies than energy price increases. Adoption decisions imply hurdle rates of 50-100%, which is consistent with the investment criteria small and medium-size firms state they use. © 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic evaluation of a proposed introduction: the case of the greater prairie chicken and the extinct heath hen.

Population introduction is an important tool for ecosystem restoration. However, before introductions should be conducted, it is important to evaluate the genetic, phenotypic and ecological suitability of possible replacement populations. Careful genetic analysis is particularly important if it is suspected that the extirpated population was unique or genetically divergent. On the island of Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, the introduction of greater prairie chickens (Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus) to replace the extinct heath hen (T. cupido cupido) is being considered as part of an ecosystem restoration project. Martha's Vineyard was home to the last remaining heath hen population until its extinction in 1932. We conducted this study to aid in determining the suitability of greater prairie chickens as a possible replacement for the heath hen. We examined mitochondrial control region sequences from extant populations of all prairie grouse species (Tympanuchus) and from museum skin heath hen specimens. Our data suggest that the Martha's Vineyard heath hen population represents a divergent mitochondrial lineage. This result is attributable either to a long period of geographical isolation from other prairie grouse populations or to a population bottleneck resulting from human disturbance. The mtDNA diagnosability of the heath hen contrasts with the network of mtDNA haplotypes of other prairie grouse (T. cupido attwateri, T. pallidicinctus and T. phasianellus), which do not form distinguishable mtDNA groupings. Our findings suggest that the Martha's Vineyard heath hen was more genetically isolated than are current populations of prairie grouse and place the emphasis for future research on examining prairie grouse adaptations to different habitat types to assess ecological exchangeability between heath hens and greater prairie chickens.

Using the institutional grammar tool to understand regulatory compliance: The case of Colorado aquaculture

What is the relationship between the design of regulations and levels of individual compliance? To answer this question, Crawford and Ostrom's institutional grammar tool is used to deconstruct regulations governing the aquaculture industry in Colorado, USA. Compliance with the deconstructed regulatory components is then assessed based on the perceptions of the appropriateness of the regulations, involvement in designing the regulations, and intrinsic and extrinsic motivations. The findings suggest that levels of compliance with regulations vary across and within individuals regarding various aspects of the regulatory components. As expected, the level of compliance is affected by the perceived appropriateness of regulations, participation in designing the regulations, and feelings of guilt and fear of social disapproval. Furthermore, there is a strong degree of interdependence among the written components, as identified by the institutional grammar tool, in affecting compliance levels. The paper contributes to the regulation and compliance literature by illustrating the utility of the institutional grammar tool in understanding regulatory content, applying a new Q-Sort technique for measuring individual levels of compliance, and providing a rare exploration into feelings of guilt and fear outside of the laboratory setting. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Diasporic Agents and Trans-Asian Flows in the Making of Asian Modernity: The Case of Thailand

How do our everyday actions shape and transform the world economy? This volume of original essays argues that current scholarship in international political economy (IPE) is too highly focused on powerful states and large international institutions. The contributors examine specific forms of â everyday' actions to demonstrate how small-scale actors and their decisions can shape the global economy. They analyse a range of seemingly ordinary or subordinate actors, including peasants, working classes and trade unions, lower-middle and middle classes, female migrant labourers and Eastern diasporas, and examine how they have agency in transforming their political and economic environments. This book offers a novel way of thinking about everyday forms of change across a range of topical issues including globalisation, international finance, trade, taxation, consumerism, labour rights and regimes. It will appeal to students and scholars of politics, international relations, political economy and sociology.

Long-term dynamics of death rates of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia and improving air quality.

BACKGROUND: The respiratory tract is a major target of exposure to air pollutants, and respiratory diseases are associated with both short- and long-term exposures. We hypothesized that improved air quality in North Carolina was associated with reduced rates of death from respiratory diseases in local populations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed the trends of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia mortality and changes of the levels of ozone, sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate matters (PM2.5 and PM10) using monthly data measurements from air-monitoring stations in North Carolina in 1993-2010. The log-linear model was used to evaluate associations between air-pollutant levels and age-adjusted death rates (per 100,000 of population) calculated for 5-year age-groups and for standard 2000 North Carolina population. The studied associations were adjusted by age group-specific smoking prevalence and seasonal fluctuations of disease-specific respiratory deaths. RESULTS: Decline in emphysema deaths was associated with decreasing levels of SO2 and CO in the air, decline in asthma deaths-with lower SO2, CO, and PM10 levels, and decline in pneumonia deaths-with lower levels of SO2. Sensitivity analyses were performed to study potential effects of the change from International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 to ICD-10 codes, the effects of air pollutants on mortality during summer and winter, the impact of approach when only the underlying causes of deaths were used, and when mortality and air-quality data were analyzed on the county level. In each case, the results of sensitivity analyses demonstrated stability. The importance of analysis of pneumonia as an underlying cause of death was also highlighted. CONCLUSION: Significant associations were observed between decreasing death rates of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia and decreases in levels of ambient air pollutants in North Carolina.

The spatiotemporal dynamics of autobiographical memory: neural correlates of recall, emotional intensity, and reliving.

We sought to map the time course of autobiographical memory retrieval, including brain regions that mediate phenomenological experiences of reliving and emotional intensity. Participants recalled personal memories to auditory word cues during event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Participants pressed a button when a memory was accessed, maintained and elaborated the memory, and then gave subjective ratings of emotion and reliving. A novel fMRI approach based on timing differences capitalized on the protracted reconstructive process of autobiographical memory to segregate brain areas contributing to initial access and later elaboration and maintenance of episodic memories. The initial period engaged hippocampal, retrosplenial, and medial and right prefrontal activity, whereas the later period recruited visual, precuneus, and left prefrontal activity. Emotional intensity ratings were correlated with activity in several regions, including the amygdala and the hippocampus during the initial period. Reliving ratings were correlated with activity in visual cortex and ventromedial and inferior prefrontal regions during the later period. Frontopolar cortex was the only brain region sensitive to emotional intensity across both periods. Results were confirmed by time-locked averages of the fMRI signal. The findings indicate dynamic recruitment of emotion-, memory-, and sensory-related brain regions during remembering and their dissociable contributions to phenomenological features of the memories.

The impact of host immune status on the within-host and population dynamics of antigenic immune escape.

Antigenically evolving pathogens such as influenza viruses are difficult to control owing to their ability to evade host immunity by producing immune escape variants. Experimental studies have repeatedly demonstrated that viral immune escape variants emerge more often from immunized hosts than from naive hosts. This empirical relationship between host immune status and within-host immune escape is not fully understood theoretically, nor has its impact on antigenic evolution at the population level been evaluated. Here, we show that this relationship can be understood as a trade-off between the probability that a new antigenic variant is produced and the level of viraemia it reaches within a host. Scaling up this intra-host level trade-off to a simple population level model, we obtain a distribution for variant persistence times that is consistent with influenza A/H3N2 antigenic variant data. At the within-host level, our results show that target cell limitation, or a functional equivalent, provides a parsimonious explanation for how host immune status drives the generation of immune escape mutants. At the population level, our analysis also offers an alternative explanation for the observed tempo of antigenic evolution, namely that the production rate of immune escape variants is driven by the accumulation of herd immunity. Overall, our results suggest that disease control strategies should be further assessed by considering the impact that increased immunity--through vaccination--has on the production of new antigenic variants.

In vitro fluid dynamics of the Ahmed glaucoma valve modified with expanded polytetrafluoroethylene.

PURPOSE: Long-term intraocular pressure reduction by glaucoma drainage devices (GDDs) is often limited by the fibrotic capsule that forms around them. Prior work demonstrates that modifying a GDD with a porous membrane promotes a vascularized and more permeable capsule. This work examines the in vitro fluid dynamics of the Ahmed valve after enclosing the outflow tract with a porous membrane of expanded polytetrafluoroethylene (ePTFE). MATERIALS AND METHODS: The control and modified Ahmed implants (termed porous retrofitted implant with modified enclosure or PRIME-Ahmed) were submerged in saline and gelatin and perfused in a system that monitored flow (Q) and pressure (P). Flow rates of 1-50 μl/min were applied and steady state pressure recorded. Resistance was calculated by dividing pressure by flow. RESULTS: Modifying the Ahmed valve implant outflow with expanded ePTFE increased pressure and resistance. Pressure at a flow of 2 μl/min was increased in the PRIME-Ahmed (11.6 ± 1.5 mm Hg) relative to the control implant (6.5 ± 1.2 mm Hg). Resistance at a flow of 2 μl/min was increased in the PRIME-Ahmed (5.8 ± 0.8 mm Hg/μl/min) when compared to the control implant (3.2 ± 0.6 mm Hg/μl/min). CONCLUSIONS: Modifying the outflow tract of the Ahmed valve with a porous membrane adds resistance that decreases with increasing flow. The Ahmed valve implant behaves as a variable resistor. It is partially open at low pressures and provides reduced resistance at physiologic flow rates.