9 resultados para trend following mean reversion

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo


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No Brasil, a mortalidade por homicídios persiste como importante problema de saúde pública, principalmente entre homens adultos jovens. O objetivo do presente estudo foi analisar o risco de morte por homicídios entre homens de 20-39 anos de idade e sua associação com características sociodemográficas dos municípios brasileiros. Foi realizado estudo ecológico, tendo como unidades de análise todos os municípios do País. Foram estudadas as tendências temporais entre 1999-2010 e as associações do desfecho com indicadores dos municípios em análise transversal referente ao quatriênio 2007-2010. Entre os quatriênios 1999-2002 e 2007-2010, houve aumento das taxas medianas de mortalidade por homicídios entre homens de 20-39 anos, de 22,7 para 35,5 por 100 mil habitantes. No quatriênio 2007-2010, os riscos de homicídios foram estatisticamente superiores (p<0,001) nos municípios de maior porte populacional, maior taxa de fecundidade, baixa proporção de alfabetizados, maior desigualdade aferida pela renda 20/40 e maior urbanização. Para a proporção da população de baixa renda e renda média per capita, as associações indicam excessos nas estimativas de risco de homicídios nos municípios com valores intermediários desses indicadores. Os achados podem auxiliar na focalização de políticas públicas.

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Color vision was examined in subjects with long-term occupational exposure to mercury (Hg) vapor. The color vision impairment was assessed by employing a quantitative measure of distortion of individual and group perceptual color spaces. Hg subjects (n = 18; 42.1 +/- 6.5 years old; exposure time = 10.4 +/- 5.0 years; time away from the exposure source = 6.8 +/- 4.6 years) and controls (n = 18; 46.1 +/- 8.4 years old) were examined using two arrangement tests, D-15 and D-15d, in the traditional way, and also in a triadic procedure. From each subject`s `odd-one-out` choices, matrices of inter-cap subjective dissimilarities were derived and processed by non-metric multidimensional scaling (MDS). D-15d results differed significantly between the Hg-group and the control group (p < 0.05), with the impairment predominantly along the tritan axis. 2D perceptual color spaces, individual and group, were reconstructed, with the dimensions interpreted as the red-green (RG) and the blue-yellow (BY) systems. When color configurations from the Hg-group were compared to those of the controls, they presented more fluctuations along both chromatic dimensions, indicating a statistically significant difference along the BY axis. In conclusion, the present findings confirm that color vision impairments persist in subjects that have received long-term occupational exposure to Hg-vapor although, at the time of testing, they were presenting mean urinary concentration within the normal range for non-exposed individuals. Considering the advantages of the triadic procedure in clinical evaluation of acquired color vision deficiencies, further studies should attempt to verify and/or improve its efficacy.

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Follicular estradiol triggers luteolysis in cattle. Therefore, the control of follicle growth and steroidogenesis is expected to modulate luteal function and might be used as an anti-luteolytic strategy to improve embryo survival. Objectives were to evaluate follicular dynamics, plasma concentrations of estradiol and luteal lifespan in Bos indicus and crossbred cows subjected to sequential follicular aspirations. From D13 to D25 of a synchronized cycle (ovulation = D1), Nelore or crossbred, non-pregnant and non-lactating cows were submitted to daily ultrasound-guided aspiration of follicles >6 mm (n = 10) or to sham aspirations (n = 8). Diameter of the largest follicle on the day of luteolysis (7.4 +/- 1.0 vs 9.7 +/- 1.0 mm; mean +/- SEM), number of days in which follicles >6 mm were present (2.3 +/- 0.4 vs 4.6 +/- 0.5 days) and daily mean diameter of the largest follicle between D15 and D19 (6.4 +/- 0.2 vs 8.5 +/- 0.3 mm) were smaller (p <0.01) in the aspirated group compared with the control group, respectively. Aspiration tended to reduce (p< 0.10) plasma estradiol concentrations between D18 and D20 (2.95 +/- 0.54 vs 4.30 +/- 0.55 pg/ml). The luteal lifespan was similar (p > 0.10) between the groups (19.6 +/- 0.4 days), whereas the oestrous cycle was longer (p <0.01) in the aspirated group (31.4 +/- 1.2 vs 21.2 +/- 1.3 days). Hyperechogenic structures were present at the sites of aspiration and were associated with increase in concentration of progesterone between luteolysis and oestrus. It is concluded that follicular aspiration extended the oestrous cycle and decreased the average follicular diameter on the peri-luteolysis period but failed to delay luteolysis.

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BACKGROUND: Only about 15% of donor lungs are considered suitable for transplantation (LTx). Ex vivo lung perfusion (EVLP) has been developed as a method to reassess and repair damaged lungs. We report our experience with EVLP in non-acceptable donor lungs and evaluate its ability to recondition these lungs. METHODS: We studied lungs from 16 brain-dead donors rejected for LTx. After harvesting, the lungs were stored at 4 degrees C for 10 hours and subjected to normothermic EVLP with Steen Solution (Vitro life, Goteborg, Sweden) for 60 minutes. For functional evaluation, the following variables were assessed: partial pressure of arterial oxygen (Pao(2)), pulmonary vascular resistance (PVR), and lung compliance (LC). For histologic assessment, lung biopsy was done before harvest and after EVLP. Tissue samples were examined under light microscopy. To detect and quantify apoptosis, terminal deoxynucleotide transferase-mediated deoxy uridine triphosphate nick-end labeling assay was used. RESULTS: Thirteen lima donors were refused for having impaired lung function. The mean Pao(2) obtained in the organ donor at the referring hospital was 193.7 mm Hg and rose to 489 mm Hg after EVLP. During EVLP, the mean PVR was 652.5 dynes/sec/cm(5) and the mean LC was 48 ml/cm H2O. There was no significant difference between the mean Lung Injury Score before harvest and after EVLP. There was a trend toward a reduction in the median number of apoptotic cells after EVLP. CONCLUSIONS: EVLP improved lung function (oxygenation capacity) of organs considered unsuitable for transplantation. Lung tissue structure did not deteriorate even after 1 hour of normothermic perfusion. J Heart Lung Transplant 2012;31:305-9 (C) 2012 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. All rights reserved.

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The aim of the present study was to determine clinical parameters for the use of Er,Cr:YSGG laser in the treatment of dentine hypersensitivity. Two antagonist areas were determined as control and experimental areas for irradiation in 90 premolar roots. Each surface was conditioned with 24% EDTA (sub-group 1) and 35% phosphoric acid (sub-group 2) and irradiated with the following settings: 1) Er:YAG, 60 mJ, 2 Hz, defocused; groups 2 to 9: irradiation with Er,Cr:YSGG laser, 20 Hz, Z6 tip, 0% of air and water: 2) Er,Cr:YSGG 0.25 W; 3) 0.5 W; 4) 0.75 W; 5) 1.0 W; 6) 1.25 W, 7) 1.50 W, 8) 2 W; 9) 2 W. After irradiation, samples were immersed in methylene blue solution and included in epoxy resin to obtain longitudinal cuts. The images were digitalized and analyzed by computer software. Although the samples irradiated with Er:YAG laser showed less microleakage, sub-group 1 showed differences between the groups, differing statistically from groups 3, 6, and 9. The results of sub-group 2 showed that the mean values of Er:YAG samples showed a negative trend, however, no differences were detected between the groups. For scanning electron microscopy analysis, dentine squares were obtained and prepared to evaluate the superficial morphology. Partial closure of dentinal tubules was observed after irradiation with Er:YAG and Er,Cr:YSGG laser in the 0.25 and 0.50 W protocols. As the energy densities rose, open dentinal tubules, carbonization and cracks were observed. It can be concluded that none of the parameters were capable of eliminating microleakage, however, clinical studies with Er:YAG and Er,Cr:YSGG lasers should be conducted with the lowest protocols in order to determine the most satisfactory setting for dentine hypersensitivity.

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The use of geoid models to estimate the Mean Dynamic Topography was stimulated with the launching of the GRACE satellite system, since its models present unprecedented precision and space-time resolution. In the present study, besides the DNSC08 mean sea level model, the following geoid models were used with the objective of computing the MDTs: EGM96, EIGEN-5C and EGM2008. In the method adopted, geostrophic currents for the South Atlantic were computed based on the MDTs. In this study it was found that the degree and order of the geoid models affect the determination of TDM and currents directly. The presence of noise in the MDT requires the use of efficient filtering techniques, such as the filter based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, which presents significant advantages in relation to conventional filters. Geostrophic currents resulting from geoid models were compared with the HYCOM hydrodynamic numerical model. In conclusion, results show that MDTs and respective geostrophic currents calculated with EIGEN-5C and EGM2008 models are similar to the results of the numerical model, especially regarding the main large scale features such as boundary currents and the retroflection at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence.

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Background: Studies in South-East Asia have suggested that early diagnosis and treatment with artesunate (AS) and mefloquine (MQ) combination therapy may reduce the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and the progression of MQ resistance. Methods: The effectiveness of a fixed-dose combination of AS and MQ (ASMQ) in reducing malaria transmission was tested in isolated communities of the Jurua valley in the Amazon region. Priority municipalities within the Brazilian Legal Amazon area were selected according to pre-specified criteria. Routine national malaria control programmatic procedures were followed. Existing health structures were reinforced and health care workers were trained to treat with ASMQ all confirmed falciparum malaria cases that match inclusion criteria. A local pharmacovigilance structure was implemented. Incidence of malaria and hospitalizations were recorded two years before, during, and after the fixed-dose ASMQ intervention. In total, between July 2006 and December 2008, 23,845 patients received ASMQ. Two statistical modelling approaches were applied to monthly time series of P. falciparum malaria incidence rates, P. falciparum/Plasmodium vivax infection ratio, and malaria hospital admissions rates. All the time series ranged from January 2004 to December 2008, whilst the intervention period span from July 2006 to December 2008. Results: The ASMQ intervention had a highly significant impact on the mean level of each time series, adjusted for trend and season, of 0.34 (95% CI 0.20 - 0.58) for the P. falciparum malaria incidence rates, 0.67 (95% CI 0.50 - 0.89) for the P. falciparum/P. vivax infection ratio, and 0.53 (95% CI 0.41 - 0.69) for the hospital admission rates. There was also a significant change in the seasonal (or monthly) pattern of the time series before and after intervention, with the elimination of the malaria seasonal peak in the rainy months of the years following the introduction of ASMQ. No serious adverse events relating to the use of fixed-dose ASMQ were reported. Conclusions: In the remote region of the Jurua valley, the early detection of malaria by health care workers and treatment with fixed-dose ASMQ was feasible and efficacious, and significantly reduced the incidence and morbidity of P. falciparum malaria.

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The use of geoid models to estimate the Mean Dynamic Topography was stimulated with the launching of the GRACE satellite system, since its models present unprecedented precision and space-time resolution. In the present study, besides the DNSC08 mean sea level model, the following geoid models were used with the objective of computing the MDTs: EGM96, EIGEN-5C and EGM2008. In the method adopted, geostrophic currents for the South Atlantic were computed based on the MDTs. In this study it was found that the degree and order of the geoid models affect the determination of TDM and currents directly. The presence of noise in the MDT requires the use of efficient filtering techniques, such as the filter based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, which presents significant advantages in relation to conventional filters. Geostrophic currents resulting from geoid models were compared with the HYCOM hydrodynamic numerical model. In conclusion, results show that MDTs and respective geostrophic currents calculated with EIGEN-5C and EGM2008 models are similar to the results of the numerical model, especially regarding the main large scale features such as boundary currents and the retroflection at the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence.

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Introduction Vaccination is an effective tool against several infectious agents including influenza. In 2010, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended influenza A H1N1/2009 immunization for high risk groups, including juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) patients and more recently the EULAR task force reinforced the importance of vaccination in immunosuppressed pediatric rheumatologic patients. We have recently shown that Influenza A H1N1/2009 vaccination generated protective antibody production with short-term safety profile among 93 JIA patients, but the possible impact of the vaccine in autoimmune response in JIA have not been studied. Therefore, we aimed to assess the production of some autoantibodies generated following influenza H1N1 vaccination in JIA patients. Objectives To assess the autoimmune response and H1N1 serology following influenza H1N1 vaccination in patients with JIA. Methods Cepa A/California/7/2009 (NYMC X-179A) anti-H1N1 was used to vaccinate JIA patients: 1 dose of immunization was given to all participants and those <9yrs of age received a second booster 3 weeks apart. Sera were analyzed before and 3 weeks following complete vaccination. Serology against H1N1 virus was performed by hemagglutination inhibition antibody assay, rheumatoid factor (RF) by latex fixation test, antinuclear antibodies (ANA) by IIF, IgM and IgG anticardiolipin (aCL) by ELISA.Results Among 98 JIA patients that were vaccinated, 58 sera were available for this study. Mean age of 58 JIA patients was 23.9 ± 9.5 yrs, 38 were females and 20 males with mean disease duration of 14.7 ± 10.1 yrs. JIA subtypes were: 33 (57%) poliarticular, 10 (17%) oligoarticular, 6 (10%) systemic and 9 (16%) other. Sixteen patients were off drugs while 42 (72%) were under different pharmacotherapy: 32 (55%) were on 1 DMARD/IS, 10 (17%) on 2 DMARDs/IS, 19 (33%) antimalarials, 29 (50%) MTX, 8(14%) sulfasalazine, 6 (10%) anti-TNFs, 4 (7%) abatacept; no patient was using prednisone >0.5 mg/kg/d. Seroprotection rates against H1N1 influenza increased from 23 to 83% and seroconversion rates were achieved in 78% JIA. Prior to vaccination, 31(53.4%) JIA patients were ANA+, 6(10.3%) RF+, and 4 (7%) IgM + IgG aCL+. After complete H1N1 vaccination, positivity for ANA remained the same whereas 1 patient became negative for IgG aCL, and another for RF, IgM and IgG aCL. One (1.7%) patient turned low titer IgG aCL+. Conclusion Vaccination of JIA patients against pandemic influenza A (H1N1) generated successful protective antibody production without the induction of autoantibody production, except for 1 patient that became positive for low titer IgG aCL, supporting its safety.