The negative binomial-beta Weibull regression model to predict the cure of prostate cancer

In this article, for the first time, we propose the negative binomial-beta Weibull (BW) regression model for studying the recurrence of prostate cancer and to predict the cure fraction for patients with clinically localized prostate cancer treated by open radical prostatectomy. The cure model considers that a fraction of the survivors are cured of the disease. The survival function for the population of patients can be modeled by a cure parametric model using the BW distribution. We derive an explicit expansion for the moments of the recurrence time distribution for the uncured individuals. The proposed distribution can be used to model survival data when the hazard rate function is increasing, decreasing, unimodal and bathtub shaped. Another advantage is that the proposed model includes as special sub-models some of the well-known cure rate models discussed in the literature. We derive the appropriate matrices for assessing local influence on the parameter estimates under different perturbation schemes. We analyze a real data set for localized prostate cancer patients after open radical prostatectomy.

Positive fluid balance is associated with reduced survival in critically ill patients with cancer

Background There are no studies that describe the impact of the cumulative fluid balance on the outcomes of cancer patients admitted to intensive care units ICUs. The aim of our study was to evaluate the relationship between fluid balance and clinical outcomes in these patients. Method One hundred twenty-two cancer patients were prospectively evaluated for survival during a 30-day period. Univariate (Chi-square, t-test, MannWhitney) and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to identify the admission parameters associated with mortality. Results The mean cumulative fluid balance was significantly higher in non-survivors than in survivors [1675?ml/24?h (4712921) vs. 887?ml/24?h (104557), P?=?0.017]. We used the area under the curve and the intersection of the sensibility and specificity curves to define a cumulative fluid balance value of 1100?ml/24?h. This value was used in the univariate model. In the multivariate model, the following variables were significantly associated with mortality in cancer patients: the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score at admission [Odds ratio (OR) 1.15; 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.051.26), P?=?0.003], the Lung Injury Score at admission [OR 2.23; 95% CI (1.293.87), P?=?0.004] and a positive fluid balance higher than 1100?ml/24?h at ICU [OR 5.14; 95% CI (1.4518.24), P?=?0.011]. Conclusion A cumulative positive fluid balance higher than 1100?ml/24?h was independently associated with mortality in patients with cancer. These findings highlight the importance of improving the evaluation of these patients' volemic state and indicate that defined goals should be used to guide fluid therapy.

The Poisson-exponential regression model under different latent activation schemes

In this paper, a new family of survival distributions is presented. It is derived by considering that the latent number of failure causes follows a Poisson distribution and the time for these causes to be activated follows an exponential distribution. Three different activation schemes are also considered. Moreover, we propose the inclusion of covariates in the model formulation in order to study their effect on the expected value of the number of causes and on the failure rate function. Inferential procedure based on the maximum likelihood method is discussed and evaluated via simulation. The developed methodology is illustrated on a real data set on ovarian cancer.

Role of biopsies in patients with residual rectal cancer following neoadjuvant chemoradiation after downsizing: can they rule out persisting cancer?

Aim The study aimed to determine the value of postchemoradiation biopsies, performed after significant tumour downsizing following neoadjuvant therapy, in predicting complete tumour regression in patients with distal rectal cancer. Method A retrospective comparative study was performed in patients with rectal cancer who achieved an incomplete clinical response after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Patients with significant tumour downsizing (> 30% of the initial tumour size) were compared with controls (< 30% reduction of the initial tumour size). During flexible proctoscopy carried out postchemoradiation, biopsies were performed using 3-mm biopsy forceps. The biopsy results were compared with the histopathological findings of the resected specimen. UICC (Union for International Cancer Control) ypTNM classification, tumour differentiation and regression grade were evaluated. The main outcome measures were sensitivity and specificity, negative and positive predictive values, and accuracy of a simple forceps biopsy for predicting pathological response after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Results Of the 172 patients, 112 were considered to have had an incomplete clinical response and were included in the study. Thirty-nine patients achieved significant tumour downsizing and underwent postchemoradiation biopsies. Overall, 53 biopsies were carried out. Of the 39 patients who achieved significant tumour downsizing, the biopsy result was positive in 25 and negative in 14. Only three of the patients with a negative biopsy result were found to have had a complete pathological response (giving a negative predictive value of 21%). Considering all biopsies performed, only three of 28 negative biopsies were true negatives, giving a negative predictive value of 11%. Conclusion In patients with distal rectal cancer undergoing neoadjuvant chemoradiation, post-treatment biopsies are of limited clinical value in ruling out persisting cancer. A negative biopsy result after a near-complete clinical response should not be considered sufficient for avoiding a radical resection.

Fatigue in colorectal cancer patients: prevalence and associated factors

This study identified the prevalence and prevalence and predictors of fatigue in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. Cross-sectional study with 157 adult CRC outpatients (age 60 +/- 11.7 years; 54% male; cancer stage IV 44.8%). The Piper Fatigue Scale-revised was used to assess fatigue scores. Socio-demographic, clinical, depression, performance status, pain and sleep disturbance data were assessed. Associations between fatigue and these data were analyzed through logistic regression models. Fatigue was reported by 26.8% patients. Logistic regression identified three predictors: depression (OR: 4.2; 95%CI 1.68-10.39), performance status (OR: 3.2; 95%CI 1.37-7.51) and sleep disturbance (OR: 3.2; 95%CI 1.30-8.09). When all predictors were present, the probability of fatigue occurrence was 80%; when none were present, the probability was 8%. The model's specificity and sensitivity were 81.9% and 58.6%, respectively. Through the assessment of depression, performance status and sleep disturbance, the probability of fatigue occurrence can be estimated, and preventive and treatment strategies can be rapidly implemented in clinical practice.

Optimal Timing for Assessment of Tumor Response to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation in Patients With Rectal Cancer: Do All Patients Benefit From Waiting Longer Than 6 Weeks?

Purpose: To estimate the metabolic activity of rectal cancers at 6 and 12 weeks after completion of chemoradiation therapy (CRT) by 2-[fluorine-18] fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose-labeled positron emission tomography/computed tomography ([18 FDG] PET/CT) imaging and correlate with response to CRT. Methods and Materials: Patients with cT2-4N0-2M0 distal rectal adenocarcinoma treated with long-course neoadjuvant CRT (54 Gy, 5-fluouracil-based) were prospectively studied (ClinicalTrials. org identifier NCT00254683). All patients underwent 3 PET/CT studies (at baseline and 6 and 12 weeks fromCRT completion). Clinical assessment was at 12 weeks. Maximal standard uptakevalue (SUVmax) of the primary tumor wasmeasured and recorded at eachPET/CTstudy after 1 h (early) and3 h (late) from 18 FDGinjection. Patientswith an increase in early SUVmax between 6 and 12 weeks were considered " bad" responders and the others as "good" responders. Results: Ninety-one patients were included; 46 patients (51%) were "bad" responders, whereas 45 (49%) patients were " good" responders. " Bad" responders were less likely to develop complete clinical response (6.5% vs. 37.8%, respectively; PZ. 001), less likely to develop significant histological tumor regression (complete or near-complete pathological response; 16% vs. 45%, respectively; PZ. 008) and exhibited greater final tumor dimension (4.3cmvs. 3.3cm; PZ. 03). Decrease between early (1 h) and late (3 h) SUVmax at 6-week PET/CTwas a significant predictor of " good" response (accuracy of 67%). Conclusions: Patients who developed an increase in SUVmax after 6 weeks were less likely to develop significant tumor downstaging. Early-late SUVmax variation at 6-week PET/CT may help identify these patients and allow tailored selection of CRT-surgery intervals for individual patients. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Food restrictions of patients who are undergoing treatment for oral and oropharyngeal cancer

Purpose: Oral squamous cell carcinoma and its treatment are associated with facial disfigurement and functional inabilities that may lead to malnutrition or under nourishment. This study assessed the incidence of food restrictions in patients undergoing treatment for oral and oropharyngeal cancer. Method: We interviewed 120 patients in two hospitals in Sao Paulo, Brazil, using a structured food frequency questionnaire comprising the most commonly consumed foods in Brazil. This questionnaire was applied twice; the first time to inform dietary patterns prior to the diagnosis of cancer and the second time to assess recent modifications of diet that were associated with the disease and its treatment. Hospital files provided information on clinical status. Multivariate Poisson regression models assessed covariates with prognostic value. Results: One third of patients suffered major food restrictions (i.e., they reduced substantially the intake of more than 50% of the most commonly consumed food items before the diagnosis); 39% suffered a less severe condition (they could not eat less than 50% of the most commonly consumed food items before the diagnosis, and they needed changes in food preparation). Larger tumour size (adjusted incidence ratio IR = 1.45), posterior location (IR = 1.33), radiotherapy (IR = 1.84), loss of tongue mobility (IR = 1.36) and loss of teeth (IR = 1.25) in the surgery were associated significantly with the study outcome. Conclusion: This study identified clinical predictors of food restrictions in patients undergoing treatment for oral and oropharyngeal cancer. This knowledge may contribute to improve patient care and management, and to develop interventions aimed at preventing nutritional depletion of these patients. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accuracy of positron emission tomography/computed tomography and clinical assessment in the detection of complete rectal tumor regression after neoadjuvant chemoradiation Long-Term Results of a Prospective Trial (National Clinical Trial 00254683)

BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant chemoradiation (CRT) therapy may result in significant tumor regression in patients with rectal cancer. Patients who develop complete tumor regression have been managed by treatment strategies that are alternatives to standard total mesorectal excision. Therefore, assessment of tumor response with positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) after neoadjuvant treatment may offer relevant information for the selection of patients to receive alternative treatment strategies. METHODS: Patients with clinical T2 (cT2) through cT4NxM0 rectal adenocarcinoma were included prospectively. Neoadjuvant therapy consisted of 54 grays of radiation and 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy. Baseline PET/CT studies were obtained before CRT followed by PET/CT studies at 6 weeks and 12 weeks after the completion of CRT. Clinical assessment was performed at 12 weeks after CRT completion. PET/CT results were compared with clinical and pathologic data. RESULTS: In total, 99 patients were included in the study. Twenty-three patients were complete responders (16 had a complete clinical response, and 7 had a complete pathologic response). The PET/CT response evaluation at 12 weeks indicated that 18 patients had a complete response, and 81 patients had an incomplete response. There were 5 false-negative and 10 false-positive PET/CT results. PET/CT for the detection of residual cancer had 93% sensitivity, 53% specificity, a 73% negative predictive value, an 87% positive predictive value, and 85% accuracy. Clinical assessment alone resulted in an accuracy of 91%. PET/CT information may have detected misdiagnoses made by clinical assessment alone, improving overall accuracy to 96%. CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of tumor response at 12 weeks after CRT completion with PET/CT imaging may provide a useful additional tool with good overall accuracy for the selection of patients who may avoid unnecessary radical resection after achieving a complete clinical response. Cancer 2012;35013511. (C) 2011 American Cancer Society.

Diet and the risk of head and neck cancer: a pooled analysis in the INHANCE consortium

We investigated the association between diet and head and neck cancer (HNC) risk using data from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium. The INHANCE pooled data included 22 case-control studies with 14,520 cases and 22,737 controls. Center-specific quartiles among the controls were used for food groups, and frequencies per week were used for single food items. A dietary pattern score combining high fruit and vegetable intake and low red meat intake was created. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the dietary items on the risk of HNC were estimated with a two-stage random-effects logistic regression model. An inverse association was observed for higher-frequency intake of fruit (4th vs. 1st quartile OR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.43-0.62, p (trend) < 0.01) and vegetables (OR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.49-0.90, p (trend) = 0.01). Intake of red meat (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.13-1.74, p (trend) = 0.13) and processed meat (OR = 1.37, 95% CI = 1.14-1.65, p (trend) < 0.01) was positively associated with HNC risk. Higher dietary pattern scores, reflecting high fruit/vegetable and low red meat intake, were associated with reduced HNC risk (per score increment OR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.84-0.97).

Disparities in female breast cancer mortality rates in Brazil between 1980 and 2009

OBJECTIVE: To describe the temporal trends in female breast cancer mortality rates in Brazil in its macro-regions and states between 1980 and 2009. METHODS: This was an ecological time-series study using data on breast cancer deaths registered in the Mortality Data System (SIM/WHO) and census data on the resident population collected by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE/WHO). Joinpoint regression analyses were used to identify the significant changes in trends and to estimate the annual percentage change (APC) in mortality rates. RESULTS: Female breast cancer mortality rates in Brazil tended to stabilize from 1994 onward (APC = 0.4%). Considering the Brazilian macro-regions, the annual mortality rates decreased in the Southeast, stabilized in the South and increased in the Northeast, North, and Midwest. Only the states of Sao Paulo (APC = -1.9%), Rio Grande do Sul (APC = -0.8%) and Rio de Janeiro (APC = -0.6%) presented a significant decline in mortality rates. The greatest increases were found in Maranhao (APC = 12%), Paraiba (APC = 11.9%), and Piaui (APC = 10.9%). CONCLUSION: Although there has been a trend toward stabilization in female breast cancer mortality rates in Brazil, when the mortality rate of each macro-region and state is analyzed individually, considerable inequalities are found, with rate decline or stabilization in states with higher socioeconomic levels and a substantial increase in those with lower socioeconomic levels.

Why Are Women With Cervical Cancer Not Being Diagnosed in Preinvasive Phase? An Analysis of Risk Factors Using a Hierarchical Model

Objective: To assess the risk factors for delayed diagnosis of uterine cervical lesions. Materials and Methods: This is a case-control study that recruited 178 women at 2 Brazilian hospitals. The cases (n = 74) were composed of women with a late diagnosis of a lesion in the uterine cervix (invasive carcinoma in any stage). The controls (n = 104) were composed of women with cervical lesions diagnosed early on (low-or high-grade intraepithelial lesions). The analysis was performed by means of logistic regression model using a hierarchical model. The socioeconomic and demographic variables were included at level I (distal). Level II (intermediate) included the personal and family antecedents and knowledge about the Papanicolaou test and human papillomavirus. Level III (proximal) encompassed the variables relating to individuals' care for their own health, gynecologic symptoms, and variables relating to access to the health care system. Results: The risk factors for late diagnosis of uterine cervical lesions were age older than 40 years (odds ratio [OR] = 10.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3-48.4), not knowing the difference between the Papanicolaou test and gynecological pelvic examinations (OR, = 2.5; 95% CI, 1.3-4.9), not thinking that the Papanicolaou test was important (odds ratio [OR], 4.2; 95% CI, 1.3-13.4), and abnormal vaginal bleeding (OR, 15.0; 95% CI, 6.5-35.0). Previous treatment for sexually transmissible disease was a protective factor (OR, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.8) for delayed diagnosis. Conclusions: Deficiencies in cervical cancer prevention programs in developing countries are not simply a matter of better provision and coverage of Papanicolaou tests. The misconception about the Papanicolaou test is a serious educational problem, as demonstrated by the present study.

Low Bone Mineral Density in Middle-Aged Breast Cancer Survivors: Prevalence and Associated Factors

Background: The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of low bone mineral density (BMD) and associated factors in middle-aged breast cancer survivors (BCS). Patients and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted with 70 BCS of 45-65 years of age undergoing complete oncology treatment. Logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with low BMD (osteopenia and osteoporosis taken together as a single group). Results: The mean age of participants was 53.2 +/- 5.9 years. BMD was low at the femoral neck in 28.6% of patients and at the lumbar spine in 45.7%. Body mass index <= 30 kg/m(2) (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 3.43; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.0-11.3) and postmenopausal status (OR adjusted 20.42; 95% CI 2.0-201.2) were associated with low BMD at the lumbar spine. Femoral neck measurements, age > 50 years (OR 3.41; 95% CI 1.0-11.6), and time since diagnosis > 50 months (OR adjusted 3.34; 95% CI 1.0-11.3) increased the likelihood of low BMD. Conclusion: These findings show that low BMD is common in middle-aged BCS. Factors were identified that may affect BMD in BCS and should be considered when implementing strategies to minimize bone loss in middle-aged women with breast cancer.

Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality in Barcelona: 1992–2003

Abstract Background The objective of this study was to assess trends in cancer mortality by educational level in Barcelona from 1992 to 2003. Methods The study population comprised Barcelona inhabitants aged 20 years or older. Data on cancer deaths were supplied by the system of information on mortality. Educational level was obtained from the municipal census. Age-standardized rates by educational level were calculated. We also fitted Poisson regression models to estimate the relative index of inequality (RII) and the Slope Index of Inequalities (SII). All were calculated for each sex and period (1992–1994, 1995–1997, 1998–2000, and 2001–2003). Results Cancer mortality was higher in men and women with lower educational level throughout the study period. Less-schooled men had higher mortality by stomach, mouth and pharynx, oesophagus, larynx and lung cancer. In women, there were educational inequalities for cervix uteri, liver and colon cancer. Inequalities of overall and specific types of cancer mortality remained stable in Barcelona; although a slight reduction was observed for some cancers. Conclusion This study has identified those cancer types presenting the greatest inequalities between men and women in recent years and shown that in Barcelona there is a stable trend in inequalities in the burden of cancer.

Prognostic factors for survival in patients with colorectal liver metastases: experience of a single brazilian cancer center

CONTEXT: Liver metastases are a common event in the clinical outcome of patients with colorectal cancer and account for 2/3 of deaths from this disease. There is considerable controversy among the data in the literature regarding the results of surgical treatment and prognostic factors of survival, and no analysis have been done in a large cohort of patients in Brazil. OBJECTIVES: To characterize the results of surgical treatment of patients with colorectal liver metastases, and to establish prognostic factors of survival in a Brazilian population. METHOD: This was a retrospective study of patients undergoing liver resection for colorectal metastases in a tertiary cancer hospital from 1998 to 2009. We analyzed epidemiologic variables and the clinical characteristics of primary tumors, metastatic disease and its treatment, surgical procedures and follow-up, and survival results. Survival analyzes were done by the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test was applied to determine the influence of variables on overall and disease-free survival. All variables associated with survival with P<0.20 in univariate analysis, were included in multivariate analysis using a Cox proportional hazard regression model. RESULTS: During the period analyzed, 209 procedures were performed on 170 patients. Postope-rative mortality in 90 days was 2.9% and 5-year overall survival was 64.9%. Its independent prognostic factors were the presence of extrahepatic disease at diagnosis of liver metastases, bilateral nodules and the occurrence of major complications after liver surgery. The estimated 5-year disease-free survival was 39.1% and its prognostic factors included R1 resection, extrahepatic disease, bilateral nodules, lymph node involvement in the primary tumor and primary tumors located in the rectum. CONCLUSION: Liver resection for colorectal metastases is safe and effective and the analysis of prognostic factors of survival in a large cohort of Brazilian patients showed similar results to those pointed in international series. The occurrence of major postoperative complications appears to be able to compromise overall survival and further investigation in needed in this topic.

Bone mineral density in postmenopausal women with and without breast cancer

OBJECTIVE: The values of bone mineral density (BMD) were compared in postmenopausal women with and without breast cancer. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted, including 51 breast cancer survivors (BCS) and 71 women without breast cancer, who were non-users of hormone therapy, tamoxifen, or aromatase inhibitors. BMD T-scores and measurements in grams per centimeter squared (g/cm²) were obtained at the femoral neck, trochanter, Ward's triangle, and lumbar spine. Osteopenia and osteoporosis were grouped and categorized as abnormal BMD. Unconditional logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the odds ratios (OR) of abnormal BMD values as measures of association, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusting for age, years since menopause, parity, and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: The mean age of the women with and without breast cancer was 54.7 ± 5.8 years and 58.2 ± 4.8 years (p < 0.01), respectively. After adjusting for age, parity and BMI, abnormal BMD at the femoral neck (adjusted OR: 4.8; 95% CI: 1.5-15.4), trochanter (adjusted OR: 4.6; 95% CI: 1.4-15.5), and Ward's triangle (adjusted OR: 4.5; 95% CI: 1.5-12.9) were significantly more frequent in postmenopausal BCS than in women without breast cancer. Postmenopausal BCS had a significantly lower mean BMD at the trochanter (0.719 vs. 0.809 g/cm², p < 0.01) and at the Ward's triangle (0.751 vs. 0.805 g/cm², p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of abnormal BMD was higher in postmenopausal BCS than in postmenopausal women without breast cancer. Bone health requires special vigilance and the adoption of interventions should be instituted early to minimize bone loss in BCS.