Organization Performance Evaluation Using System Thinking: A Study in Brazilian Chemical Organizations Models

System thinking allows companies to use subjective constructs indicators like recursiveness, cause-effect relationships and autonomy to performance evaluation. Thus, the question that motivates this paper is: Are Brazilian companies searching new performance measurement and evaluation models based on system thinking? The study investigates models looking for system thinking roots in their framework. It was both exploratory and descriptive based on a multiple four case studies strategy in chemical sector. The findings showed organizational models have some characteristics that can be related to system thinking as system control and communication. Complexity and autonomy are deficiently formalized by the companies. All data suggest, inside its context, that system thinking seems to be adequate to organizational performance evaluation but remains distant from the management proceedings.

Secondary production of sandy beach macrofauna: An evaluation of predictive models

During the last three decades, several predictive models have been developed to estimate the somatic production of macroinvertebrates. Although the models have been evaluated for their ability to assess the production of macrobenthos in different marine ecosystems, these approaches have not been applied specifically to sandy beach macrofauna and may not be directly applicable to this transitional environment. Hence, in this study, a broad literature review of sandy beach macrofauna production was conducted and estimates obtained with cohort-based and size-based methods were collected. The performance of nine models in estimating the production of individual populations from the sandy beach environment, evaluated for all taxonomic groups combined and for individual groups separately, was assessed, comparing the production predicted by the models to the estimates obtained from the literature (observed production). Most of the models overestimated population production compared to observed production estimates, whether for all populations combined or more specific taxonomic groups. However, estimates by two models developed by Cusson and Bourget provided best fits to measured production, and thus represent the best alternatives to the cohort-based and size-based methods in this habitat. The consistent performance of one of these Cusson and Bourget models, which was developed for the macrobenthos of sandy substrate habitats (C&B-SS), shows that the performance of a model does not depend on whether it was developed for a specific taxonomic group. Moreover, since some widely used models (e.g., the Robertson model) show very different responses when applied to the macrofauna of different marine environments (e.g., sandy beaches and estuaries), prior evaluation of these models is essential.

Hausdorff Distance evaluation of orthodontic accessories' streaking artifacts in 3D model superimposition

The aim of this study was to determine whether image artifacts caused by orthodontic metal accessories interfere with the accuracy of 3D CBCT model superimposition. A human dry skull was subjected three times to a CBCT scan: at first without orthodontic brackets (T1), then with stainless steel brackets bonded without (T2) and with orthodontic arch wires (T3) inserted into the brackets' slots. The registration of image surfaces and the superimposition of 3D models were performed. Within-subject surface distances between T1-T2, T1-T3 and T2-T3 were computed and calculated for comparison among the three data sets. The minimum and maximum Hausdorff Distance units (HDu) computed between the corresponding data points of the T1 and T2 CBCT 3D surface images were 0.000000 and 0.049280 HDu, respectively, and the mean distance was 0.002497 HDu. The minimum and maximum Hausdorff Distances between T1 and T3 were 0.000000 and 0.047440 HDu, respectively, with a mean distance of 0.002585 HDu. In the comparison between T2 and T3, the minimum, maximum and mean Hausdorff Distances were 0.000000, 0.025616 and 0.000347 HDu, respectively. In the current study, the image artifacts caused by metal orthodontic accessories did not compromise the accuracy of the 3D model superimposition. Color-coded maps of overlaid structures complemented the computed Hausdorff Distances and demonstrated a precise fusion between the data sets.

Perioperative cardiovascular evaluation: heads or tails?

When dealing with surgical patients, a perioperative evaluation is essential to anticipate complications and institute measures to reduce the risks. Several algorithms and exams have been used to identify postoperative cardiovascular events, which account for more than 50% of perioperative mortality. However, they are far from ideal. Some of these algorithms and exams were proposed before important advances in cardiology, at a time when pharmacological risk reduction strategies for surgical patients were not available. New biomarkers and exams, such as C-reactive protein, brain natriuretic peptide, and multislice computed tomography have been used in cardiology and have provided important prognostic information. The ankle-brachial index is another significant marker of atherosclerosis. However, specific information regarding the perioperative context of all these methods is still needed. The objective of this article is to evaluate cardiovascular risk prediction models after noncardiac surgery.

Chemical evaluation and thermal behavior of Brazil nut oil obtained by different extraction processes

Brazil nut richness has been widely studied aiming at finding transformation models that increase its yield, keep its quality, reduce costs, and increase its productivity. The objective of this study is to evaluate the spectroscopic profile and the chemical and thermal behavior of Brazil nut oil obtained by different extraction processes. Lipid soxhlet extractions with petroleum ether and hexane, and using hydraulic pressing and supercritical carbon dioxide (CO2) were performed. The physicochemical analyses showed an acidity index with significant differences between the samples obtained by hydraulic pressing and supercritical CO2. The peroxide index presented significant difference for the oil obtained by hydraulic pressing compared to that obtained by the other extraction processes. The fatty acid profiles showed a relevant presence of the omega series (w-3, w-6, and w-9) with significant differences for the extraction processes evaluated. The results of the thermogravimetric and differential analyses did not indicate changes in mass loss and presented predominantly exothermic behavior. The spectroscopic profiles indicate that the extraction processes do not change the spectral profile of the oils. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effective Properties Evaluation for Smart Composite Materials

The purpose of this article is to present a method which consists in the development of unit cell numerical models for smart composite materials with piezoelectric fibers made of PZT embedded in a non-piezoelectric matrix (epoxy resin). This method evaluates a globally homogeneous medium equivalent to the original composite, using a representative volume element (RVE). The suitable boundary conditions allow the simulation of all modes of the overall deformation arising from any arbitrary combination of mechanical and electrical loading. In the first instance, the unit cell is applied to predict the effective material coefficients of the transversely isotropic piezoelectric composite with circular cross section fibers. The numerical results are compared to other methods reported in the literature and also to results previously published, in order to evaluate the method proposal. In the second step, the method is applied to calculate the equivalent properties for smart composite materials with square cross section fibers. Results of comparison between different combinations of circular and square fiber geometries, observing the influence of the boundary conditions and arrangements are presented.

Identifying regulational alterations in gene regulatory networks by state space representation of vector autoregressive models and variational annealing

Background: In the analysis of effects by cell treatment such as drug dosing, identifying changes on gene network structures between normal and treated cells is a key task. A possible way for identifying the changes is to compare structures of networks estimated from data on normal and treated cells separately. However, this approach usually fails to estimate accurate gene networks due to the limited length of time series data and measurement noise. Thus, approaches that identify changes on regulations by using time series data on both conditions in an efficient manner are demanded. Methods: We propose a new statistical approach that is based on the state space representation of the vector autoregressive model and estimates gene networks on two different conditions in order to identify changes on regulations between the conditions. In the mathematical model of our approach, hidden binary variables are newly introduced to indicate the presence of regulations on each condition. The use of the hidden binary variables enables an efficient data usage; data on both conditions are used for commonly existing regulations, while for condition specific regulations corresponding data are only applied. Also, the similarity of networks on two conditions is automatically considered from the design of the potential function for the hidden binary variables. For the estimation of the hidden binary variables, we derive a new variational annealing method that searches the configuration of the binary variables maximizing the marginal likelihood. Results: For the performance evaluation, we use time series data from two topologically similar synthetic networks, and confirm that our proposed approach estimates commonly existing regulations as well as changes on regulations with higher coverage and precision than other existing approaches in almost all the experimental settings. For a real data application, our proposed approach is applied to time series data from normal Human lung cells and Human lung cells treated by stimulating EGF-receptors and dosing an anticancer drug termed Gefitinib. In the treated lung cells, a cancer cell condition is simulated by the stimulation of EGF-receptors, but the effect would be counteracted due to the selective inhibition of EGF-receptors by Gefitinib. However, gene expression profiles are actually different between the conditions, and the genes related to the identified changes are considered as possible off-targets of Gefitinib. Conclusions: From the synthetically generated time series data, our proposed approach can identify changes on regulations more accurately than existing methods. By applying the proposed approach to the time series data on normal and treated Human lung cells, candidates of off-target genes of Gefitinib are found. According to the published clinical information, one of the genes can be related to a factor of interstitial pneumonia, which is known as a side effect of Gefitinib.

Residence Time Distribution Models Derived from Non-Ideal Laminar Velocity Profiles in Tubes

The theoretical E-curve for the laminar flow of non-Newtonian fluids in circular tubes may not be accurate for real tubular systems with diffusion, mechanical vibration, wall roughness, pipe fittings, curves, coils, or corrugated walls. Deviations from the idealized laminar flow reactor (LFR) cannot be well represented using the axial dispersion or the tanks-in-series models of residence time distribution (RTD). In this work, four RTD models derived from non-ideal velocity profiles in segregated tube flow are proposed. They were used to represent the RTD of three tubular systems working with Newtonian and pseudoplastic fluids. Other RTD models were considered for comparison. The proposed models provided good adjustments, and it was possible to determine the active volumes. It is expected that these models can be useful for the analysis of LFR or for the evaluation of continuous thermal processing of viscous foods.

A General Latent Class Model for Performance Evaluation of Diagnostic Tests in the Absence of a Gold Standard: An Application to Chagas Disease

We propose a new general Bayesian latent class model for evaluation of the performance of multiple diagnostic tests in situations in which no gold standard test exists based on a computationally intensive approach. The modeling represents an interesting and suitable alternative to models with complex structures that involve the general case of several conditionally independent diagnostic tests, covariates, and strata with different disease prevalences. The technique of stratifying the population according to different disease prevalence rates does not add further marked complexity to the modeling, but it makes the model more flexible and interpretable. To illustrate the general model proposed, we evaluate the performance of six diagnostic screening tests for Chagas disease considering some epidemiological variables. Serology at the time of donation (negative, positive, inconclusive) was considered as a factor of stratification in the model. The general model with stratification of the population performed better in comparison with its concurrents without stratification. The group formed by the testing laboratory Biomanguinhos FIOCRUZ-kit (c-ELISA and rec-ELISA) is the best option in the confirmation process by presenting false-negative rate of 0.0002% from the serial scheme. We are 100% sure that the donor is healthy when these two tests have negative results and he is chagasic when they have positive results.

Nutritional risk and anthropometric evaluation in pediatric liver transplantation

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the nutritional status of pediatric patients after orthotopic liver transplantation and the relationship with short-term clinical outcome. METHOD: Anthropometric evaluations of 60 children and adolescents after orthotopic liver transplantation, during the first 24 hours in a tertiary pediatric intensive care unit. Nutritional status was determined from the Z score for the following indices: weight/age, height/age or length/age, weight/height or weight/length, body mass index/age, arm circumference/age and triceps skinfold/age. The severity of liver disease was evaluated using one of the two models which was adequated to the patients' age: 1. Pediatric End-stage Liver Disease, 2. Model for End-Stage Liver Disease. RESULTS: We found 50.0% undernutrition by height/age; 27.3% by weight/age; 11.1% by weight/height or weight/length; 10.0% by body mass index/age; 61.6% by arm circumference/age and 51.0% by triceps skinfold/age. There was no correlation between nutritional status and Pediatric End-stage Liver Disease or mortality. We found a negative correlation between arm circumference/age and length of hospitalization. CONCLUSION: Children with chronic liver diseases experience a significant degree of undernutrition, which makes nutritional support an important aspect of therapy. Despite the difficulties in assessment, anthropometric evaluation of the upper limbs is useful to evaluate nutritional status of children before or after liver transplantation.

Evaluation of Viral Load Thresholds for Predicting New World Health Organization Stage 3 and 4 Events in HIV-Infected Children Receiving Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy

Background: This study evaluated a wide range of viral load (VL) thresholds to identify a cut-point that best predicts new clinical events in children on stable highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Methods: Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to assess the adjusted risk for World Health Organization stage 3 or 4 clinical events (WHO events) as a function of time-varying CD4, VL, and hemoglobin values in a cohort study of Latin American children on HAART >= 6 months. Models were fit using different VL cut-points between 400 and 50,000 copies per milliliter, with model fit evaluated on the basis of the minimum Akaike information criterion value, a standard model fit statistic. Results: Models were based on 67 subjects with WHO events out of 550 subjects on study. The VL cut-points of >2600 and >32,000 copies per milliliter corresponded to the lowest Akaike information criterion values and were associated with the highest hazard ratios (2.0, P = 0.015; and 2.1, P = 0.0058, respectively) for WHO events. Conclusions: In HIV-infected Latin American children on stable HAART, 2 distinct VL thresholds (>2600 and >32,000 copies/mL) were identified for predicting children at significantly increased risk for HIV-related clinical illness, after accounting for CD4 level, hemoglobin level, and other significant factors.

A Combined Study Using Ligand-Based Design, Synthesis, and Pharmacological Evaluation of Analogues of the Acetaminophen Ortho-Regioisomer with Potent Analgesic Activity

A ligand-based drug design study was performed to acetaminophen regioisomers as analgesic candidates employing quantum chemical calculations at the DFT/B3LYP level of theory and the 6-31G* basis set. To do so, many molecular descriptors were used such as highest occupied molecular orbital, ionization potential, HO bond dissociation energies, and spin densities, which might be related to quench reactivity of the tyrosyl radical to give N-acetyl-p-benzosemiquinone-imine through an initial electron withdrawing or hydrogen atom abstraction. Based on this in silico work, the most promising molecule, orthobenzamol, was synthesized and tested. The results expected from the theoretical prediction were confirmed in vivo using mouse models of nociception such as writhing, paw licking, and hot plate tests. All biological results suggested an antinociceptive activity mediated by opioid receptors. Furthermore, at 90 and 120 min, this new compound had an effect that was comparable to morphine, the standard drug for this test. Finally, the pharmacophore model is discussed according to the electronic properties derived from quantum chemistry calculations.

Diagnostic utility of immunohistochemistry in distinguishing trichoepithelioma and basal cell carcinoma: evaluation using tissue microarray samples

Trichoepithelioma is a benign neoplasm that shares both clinical and histological features with basal cell carcinoma. It is important to distinguish these neoplasms because they require different clinical behavior and therapeutic planning. Many studies have addressed the use of immunohistochemistry to improve the differential diagnosis of these tumors. These studies present conflicting results when addressing the same markers, probably owing to the small number of basaloid tumors that comprised their studies, which generally did not exceed 50 cases. We built a tissue microarray with 162 trichoepithelioma and 328 basal cell carcinoma biopsies and tested a panel of immune markers composed of CD34, CD10, epithelial membrane antigen, Bcl-2, cytokeratins 15 and 20 and D2-40. The results were analyzed using multiple linear and logistic regression models. This analysis revealed a model that could differentiate trichoepithelioma from basal cell carcinoma in 36% of the cases. The panel of immunohistochemical markers required to differentiate between these tumors was composed of CD10, cytokeratin 15, cytokeratin 20 and D2-40. The results obtained in this work were generated from a large number of biopsies and resulted in the confirmation of overlapping epithelial and stromal immunohistochemical profiles from these basaloid tumors. The results also corroborate the point of view that trichoepithelioma and basal cell carcinoma tumors represent two different points in the differentiation of a single cell type. Despite the use of panels of immune markers, histopathological criteria associated with clinical data certainly remain the best guideline for the differential diagnosis of trichoepithelioma and basal cell carcinoma. Modern Pathology (2012) 25, 1345-1353; doi: 10.1038/modpathol.2012.96; published online 8 June 2012

PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF RESOURCE-AWARE BUSINESS PROCESSES USING STOCHASTIC AUTOMATA NETWORKS

In this work, we study the performance evaluation of resource-aware business process models. We define a new framework that allows the generation of analytical models for performance evaluation from business process models annotated with resource management information. This framework is composed of a new notation that allows the specification of resource management constraints and a method to convert a business process specification and its resource constraints into Stochastic Automata Networks (SANs). We show that the analysis of the generated SAN model provides several performance indices, such as average throughput of the system, average waiting time, average queues size, and utilization rate of resources. Using the BP2SAN tool - our implementation of the proposed framework - and a SAN solver (such as the PEPS tool) we show through a simple use-case how a business specialist with no skills in stochastic modeling can easily obtain performance indices that, in turn, can help to identify bottlenecks on the model, to perform workload characterization, to define the provisioning of resources, and to study other performance related aspects of the business process.

Evaluation of the efficiencies of helical anchor plates in sand by centrifuge model tests

The uplift capacity of helical anchors normally increases with the number of helical plates. The rate of capacity gain is variable, considering that the disturbance caused by the anchor installation is generally more pronounced in the soil mass above the upper plates than above the lower plates, because the upper soil layers are penetrated more times. The present investigation examines the effect of the number of helices on the performance of helical anchors in sand, based on the results of centrifuge model tests. Uplift loading tests were performed on 12 different types of piles installed in two containers of dry sand prepared with different densities. The measured fractions of the uplift capacity related to each individual helical plate of multi-helix anchors were compared with the fractions predicted by the individual bearing method. The results of this investigation indicate that in double- and triple-helix anchors, the contributions of the second and third plate to the total anchor uplift capacity decreased with the increase of sand relative density and plate diameter. In addition, these experiments demonstrated that the variation of the anchor load-displacement behavior with the number of helices also depends on these parameters.