7 resultados para Organizational forecasting

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo


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Information flows are formed naturally or formally induced in organizational settings, passing from the strategic level to operational level, reflecting, and impacting in the processes that make up the organization, including the decision-making process and therefore the action strategies of organization. The management of organizational environments based on information requires careful attention to various kinds of languages used for communication between sectors and employees of the organization, whose goal is to share, disseminate and socialize the information produced in this environment.

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Brazil is the largest sugarcane producer in the world and has a privileged position to attend to national and international market places. To maintain the high production of sugarcane, it is fundamental to improve the forecasting models of crop seasons through the use of alternative technologies, such as remote sensing. Thus, the main purpose of this article is to assess the results of two different statistical forecasting methods applied to an agroclimatic index (the water requirement satisfaction index; WRSI) and the sugarcane spectral response (normalized difference vegetation index; NDVI) registered on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) satellite images. We also evaluated the cross-correlation between these two indexes. According to the results obtained, there are meaningful correlations between NDVI and WRSI with time lags. Additionally, the adjusted model for NDVI presented more accurate results than the forecasting models for WRSI. Finally, the analyses indicate that NDVI is more predictable due to its seasonality and the WRSI values are more variable making it difficult to forecast.

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This article aims to develop and implement a search tool which, through the perception of its respondents, allows assessing how eco-efficient an organization is based on the identification of delivery levels of support competencies to organizational eco-efficiency. A mixed (qualitative and quantitative) exploratory-descriptive research was conducted, from a case study in an 'ISE Company'. A semi-structured interview and pictures of verification were used as data collection instruments. The data were analyzed via documentary analysis and triangulation of information collected. It was inferred that at the 'ISE Company' professionals at the high-level of the organizational hierarchy recognize, in part, the growth of organizational actions that contribute to sustainability, which is not fully consistent with national publications on the subject. The result of the research showed that organizational strategies addressing eco-efficiency are partially aligned with the professional performance of the organization.

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This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

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This study analyzes an accident in which two maintenance workers suffered severe burns while replacing a circuit breaker panel in a steel mill, following model of analysis and prevention of accidents (MAPA) developed with the objective of enlarging the perimeter of interventions and contributing to deconstruction of blame attribution practices. The study was based on materials produced by a health service team in an in-depth analysis of the accident. The analysis shows that decisions related to system modernization were taken without considering their implications in maintenance scheduling and creating conflicts of priorities and of interests between production and safety; and also reveals that the lack of a systemic perspective in safety management was its principal failure. To explain the accident as merely non-fulfillment of idealized formal safety rules feeds practices of blame attribution supported by alibi norms and inhibits possible prevention. In contrast, accident analyses undertaken in worker health surveillance services show potential to reveal origins of these events incubated in the history of the system ignored in practices guided by the traditional paradigm.

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Organizational intelligence can be seen as a function of the viable structure of an organization. With the integration of the Viable System Model and Soft Systems Methodology (systemic approaches of organizational management) focused on the role of the intelligence function, it is possible to elaborate a model of action with a structured methodology to prospect, select, treat and distribute information to the entire organization that improves the efficacy and efficiency of all processes. This combination of methodologies is called Intelligence Systems Methodology (ISM) whose assumptions and dynamics are delimited in this paper. The ISM is composed of two simultaneous activities: the Active Environmental Mapping and the Stimulated Action Cycle. The elaboration of the formal ISM description opens opportunities for applications of the methodology on real situations, offering a new path for this specific issue of systems thinking: the intelligence systems. Knowledge Management Research & Practice (2012) 10, 141-152. doi:10.1057/kmrp.2011.44

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This article analyzes the study of the relationship among knowledge management, the company's market orientation, innovativeness and organizational outcomes. The survey was conducted based on a survey held with executives from 241 companies in Brazil. The evidence found indicates that knowledge management directly contributes to market orientation, but it requires a clearly defined strategic direction to achieve results and innovativeness. It was also concluded that knowledge, as a resource, leverages other resources of the company, while it requires a direction in relation to the organizational goals in order to be effective.