Hybrid Water Demand Forecasting Model Associating Artificial Neural Network with Fourier Series

This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Ground-level ozone prediction using a neural network model based on meteorological variables and applied to the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo

A neural network model to predict ozone concentration in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area was developed, based on average values of meteorological variables in the morning (8:00-12:00 hr) and afternoon (13:00-17: 00 hr) periods. Outputs are the maximum and average ozone concentrations in the afternoon (12:00-17:00 hr). The correlation coefficient between computed and measured values was 0.82 and 0.88 for the maximum and average ozone concentration, respectively. The model presented good performance as a prediction tool for the maximum ozone concentration. For prediction periods from 1 to 5 days 0 to 23% failures (95% confidence) were obtained.

Phenol biodegradation by a microbial consortium: application of artificial neural network (ANN) modelling

In this study, an effective microbial consortium for the biodegradation of phenol was grown under different operational conditions, and the effects of phosphate concentration (1.4 g L-1, 2.8 g L-1, 4.2 g L-1), temperature (25 degrees C, 30 degrees C, 35 degrees C), agitation (150 rpm, 200 rpm, 250 rpm) and pH (6, 7, 8) on phenol degradation were investigated, whereupon an artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed in order to predict degradation. The learning, recall and generalization characteristics of neural networks were studied using data from the phenol degradation system. The efficiency of the model generated by the ANN was then tested and compared with the experimental results obtained. In both cases, the results corroborate the idea that aeration and temperature are crucial to increasing the efficiency of biodegradation.

Stochastic competitive learning in complex networks

Competitive learning is an important machine learning approach which is widely employed in artificial neural networks. In this paper, we present a rigorous definition of a new type of competitive learning scheme realized on large-scale networks. The model consists of several particles walking within the network and competing with each other to occupy as many nodes as possible, while attempting to reject intruder particles. The particle's walking rule is composed of a stochastic combination of random and preferential movements. The model has been applied to solve community detection and data clustering problems. Computer simulations reveal that the proposed technique presents high precision of community and cluster detections, as well as low computational complexity. Moreover, we have developed an efficient method for estimating the most likely number of clusters by using an evaluator index that monitors the information generated by the competition process itself. We hope this paper will provide an alternative way to the study of competitive learning.

The role of clouds in improving the regression model for hourly values of diffuse solar radiation

The study introduces a new regression model developed to estimate the hourly values of diffuse solar radiation at the surface. The model is based on the clearness index and diffuse fraction relationship, and includes the effects of cloud (cloudiness and cloud type), traditional meteorological variables (air temperature, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure observed at the surface) and air pollution (concentration of particulate matter observed at the surface). The new model is capable of predicting hourly values of diffuse solar radiation better than the previously developed ones (R-2 = 0.93 and RMSE = 0.085). A simple version with a large applicability is proposed that takes into consideration cloud effects only (cloudiness and cloud height) and shows a R-2 = 0.92. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of discriminant analysis-based model for prediction of risk of low back disorders due to workplace design in industrial jobs

The occupational exposure limits of different risk factors for development of low back disorders (LBDs) have not yet been established. One of the main problems in setting such guidelines is the limited understanding of how different risk factors for LBDs interact in causing injury, since the nature and mechanism of these disorders are relatively unknown phenomena. Industrial ergonomists' role becomes further complicated because the potential risk factors that may contribute towards the onset of LBDs interact in a complex manner, which makes it difficult to discriminate in detail among the jobs that place workers at high or low risk of LBDs. The purpose of this paper was to develop a comparative study between predictions based on the neural network-based model proposed by Zurada, Karwowski & Marras (1997) and a linear discriminant analysis model, for making predictions about industrial jobs according to their potential risk of low back disorders due to workplace design. The results obtained through applying the discriminant analysis-based model proved that it is as effective as the neural network-based model. Moreover, the discriminant analysis-based model proved to be more advantageous regarding cost and time savings for future data gathering.

Network-based stochastic semisupervised learning

Semisupervised learning is a machine learning approach that is able to employ both labeled and unlabeled samples in the training process. In this paper, we propose a semisupervised data classification model based on a combined random-preferential walk of particles in a network (graph) constructed from the input dataset. The particles of the same class cooperate among themselves, while the particles of different classes compete with each other to propagate class labels to the whole network. A rigorous model definition is provided via a nonlinear stochastic dynamical system and a mathematical analysis of its behavior is carried out. A numerical validation presented in this paper confirms the theoretical predictions. An interesting feature brought by the competitive-cooperative mechanism is that the proposed model can achieve good classification rates while exhibiting low computational complexity order in comparison to other network-based semisupervised algorithms. Computer simulations conducted on synthetic and real-world datasets reveal the effectiveness of the model.

Damage detection in beams by using artificial neural networks and dynamical parameters

In this paper is presented a multilayer perceptron neural network combined with the Nelder-Mead Simplex method to detect damage in multiple support beams. The input parameters are based on natural frequencies and modal flexibility. It was considered that only a number of modes were available and that only vertical degrees of freedom were measured. The reliability of the proposed methodology is assessed from the generation of random damages scenarios and the definition of three types of errors, which can be found during the damage identification process. Results show that the methodology can reliably determine the damage scenarios. However, its application to large beams may be limited by the high computational cost of training the neural network.

STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS: THE TRANSITION FROM NONEQUILIBRIUM TO EQUILIBRIUM IN INTEGRATE-AND-FIRE DYNAMICS

The transient and equilibrium properties of dynamics unfolding in complex systems can depend critically on specific topological features of the underlying interconnections. In this work, we investigate such a relationship with respect to the integrate-and-fire dynamics emanating from a source node and an extended network model that allows control of the small-world feature as well as the length of the long-range connections. A systematic approach to investigate the local and global correlations between structural and dynamical features of the networks was adopted that involved extensive simulations (one and a half million cases) so as to obtain two-dimensional correlation maps. Smooth, but diverse surfaces of correlation values were obtained in all cases. Regarding the global cases, it has been verified that the onset avalanche time (but not its intensity) can be accurately predicted from the structural features within specific regions of the map (i.e. networks with specific structural properties). The analysis at local level revealed that the dynamical features before the avalanches can also be accurately predicted from structural features. This is not possible for the dynamical features after the avalanches take place. This is so because the overall topology of the network predominates over the local topology around the source at the stationary state.

Network-based high level data classification

Traditional supervised data classification considers only physical features (e. g., distance or similarity) of the input data. Here, this type of learning is called low level classification. On the other hand, the human (animal) brain performs both low and high orders of learning and it has facility in identifying patterns according to the semantic meaning of the input data. Data classification that considers not only physical attributes but also the pattern formation is, here, referred to as high level classification. In this paper, we propose a hybrid classification technique that combines both types of learning. The low level term can be implemented by any classification technique, while the high level term is realized by the extraction of features of the underlying network constructed from the input data. Thus, the former classifies the test instances by their physical features or class topologies, while the latter measures the compliance of the test instances to the pattern formation of the data. Our study shows that the proposed technique not only can realize classification according to the pattern formation, but also is able to improve the performance of traditional classification techniques. Furthermore, as the class configuration's complexity increases, such as the mixture among different classes, a larger portion of the high level term is required to get correct classification. This feature confirms that the high level classification has a special importance in complex situations of classification. Finally, we show how the proposed technique can be employed in a real-world application, where it is capable of identifying variations and distortions of handwritten digit images. As a result, it supplies an improvement in the overall pattern recognition rate.

Hierarchical multi-label classification using local neural networks

Hierarchical multi-label classification is a complex classification task where the classes involved in the problem are hierarchically structured and each example may simultaneously belong to more than one class in each hierarchical level. In this paper, we extend our previous works, where we investigated a new local-based classification method that incrementally trains a multi-layer perceptron for each level of the classification hierarchy. Predictions made by a neural network in a given level are used as inputs to the neural network responsible for the prediction in the next level. We compare the proposed method with one state-of-the-art decision-tree induction method and two decision-tree induction methods, using several hierarchical multi-label classification datasets. We perform a thorough experimental analysis, showing that our method obtains competitive results to a robust global method regarding both precision and recall evaluation measures.