Prediction with measurement errors in finite populations

We address the problem of selecting the best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP) of the latent value (e.g., serum glucose fasting level) of sample subjects with heteroskedastic measurement errors. Using a simple example, we compare the usual mixed model BLUP to a similar predictor based on a mixed model framed in a finite population (FPMM) setup with two sources of variability, the first of which corresponds to simple random sampling and the second, to heteroskedastic measurement errors. Under this last approach, we show that when measurement errors are subject-specific, the BLUP shrinkage constants are based on a pooled measurement error variance as opposed to the individual ones generally considered for the usual mixed model BLUP. In contrast, when the heteroskedastic measurement errors are measurement condition-specific, the FPMM BLUP involves different shrinkage constants. We also show that in this setup, when measurement errors are subject-specific, the usual mixed model predictor is biased but has a smaller mean squared error than the FPMM BLUP which points to some difficulties in the interpretation of such predictors. (C) 2011 Elsevier By. All rights reserved.

Influence Assessment in an Heteroscedastic Errors-in-Variables Model

The main goal of this article is to consider influence assessment in models with error-prone observations and variances of the measurement errors changing across observations. The techniques enable to identify potential influential elements and also to quantify the effects of perturbations in these elements on some results of interest. The approach is illustrated with data from the WHO MONICA Project on cardiovascular disease.

Homology and errors

A recent review of the homology concept in cladistics is critiqued in light of the historical literature. Homology as a notion relevant to the recognition of clades remains equivalent to synapomorphy. Some symplesiomorphies are homologies inasmuch as they represent synapomorphies of more inclusive taxa; others are complementary character states that do not imply any shared evolutionary history among the taxa that exhibit the state. Undirected character-state change (as characters optimized on an unrooted tree) is a necessary but not sufficient test of homology, because the addition of a root may alter parsimonious reconstructions. Primary and secondary homology are defended as realistic representations of discovery procedures in comparative biology, recognizable even in Direct Optimization. The epistemological relationship between homology as evidence and common ancestry as explanation is again emphasized. An alternative definition of homology is proposed. (c) The Willi Hennig Society 2012.

A log-Birnbaum-Saunders regression model with asymmetric errors

This paper introduces a skewed log-Birnbaum-Saunders regression model based on the skewed sinh-normal distribution proposed by Leiva et al. [A skewed sinh-normal distribution and its properties and application to air pollution, Comm. Statist. Theory Methods 39 (2010), pp. 426-443]. Some influence methods, such as the local influence and generalized leverage, are presented. Additionally, we derived the normal curvatures of local influence under some perturbation schemes. An empirical application to a real data set is presented in order to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed model.

Bayesian Analysis for Errors in Variables with Changepoint Models

Changepoint regression models have originally been developed in connection with applications in quality control, where a change from the in-control to the out-of-control state has to be detected based on the avaliable random observations. Up to now various changepoint models have been suggested for differents applications like reliability, econometrics or medicine. In many practical situations the covariate cannot be measured precisely and an alternative model are the errors in variable regression models. In this paper we study the regression model with errors in variables with changepoint from a Bayesian approach. From the simulation study we found that the proposed procedure produces estimates suitable for the changepoint and all other model parameters.

Flow Visualization with Quantified Spatial and Temporal Errors Using Edge Maps

Robust analysis of vector fields has been established as an important tool for deriving insights from the complex systems these fields model. Traditional analysis and visualization techniques rely primarily on computing streamlines through numerical integration. The inherent numerical errors of such approaches are usually ignored, leading to inconsistencies that cause unreliable visualizations and can ultimately prevent in-depth analysis. We propose a new representation for vector fields on surfaces that replaces numerical integration through triangles with maps from the triangle boundaries to themselves. This representation, called edge maps, permits a concise description of flow behaviors and is equivalent to computing all possible streamlines at a user defined error threshold. Independent of this error streamlines computed using edge maps are guaranteed to be consistent up to floating point precision, enabling the stable extraction of features such as the topological skeleton. Furthermore, our representation explicitly stores spatial and temporal errors which we use to produce more informative visualizations. This work describes the construction of edge maps, the error quantification, and a refinement procedure to adhere to a user defined error bound. Finally, we introduce new visualizations using the additional information provided by edge maps to indicate the uncertainty involved in computing streamlines and topological structures.

The 1420 Ma Indiavai Mafic Intrusion (SW Amazonian Craton): Paleomagnetic results and implications for the Columbia supercontinent

The configuration and the timing of assembly and break-up of Columbia are still matter of debate. In order to improve our knowledge about the Mesoproterozoic evolution of Columbia, a paleomagnetic study was carried out on the 1420 Ma Indiavai mafic intrusive rocks that crosscut the polycyclic Proterozoic basement of the SW Amazonian Craton, in southwestern Mato Grosso State (Brazil). Alternating field and thermal demagnetization revealed south/southwest ChRM directions with downward inclinations for sixteen analyzed sites. These directions are probably carried by SD/PSD magnetite with high coercivities and high unblocking temperatures as indicated by additional rock magnetic tests, including thermomagnetic data, hysteresis data and the progressive acquisition of isothermal remanent magnetization. Different stable magnetization components isolated in host rocks from the basement 10 km NW away to the Indiavai intrusion, further support the primary origin of the ChRM. A mean of the site mean directions was calculated at Dm = 209.8 degrees, Im = 50.7 degrees (alpha(95) = 8.0 degrees, K = 22.1), which yielded a paleomagnetic pole located at 249.7 degrees E, 57.0 degrees S (A(95) = 8.6 degrees). The similarity of this pole with the recently published 1420 Ma pole from the Nova Guarita dykes in northern Mato Grosso State suggests a similar tectonic framework for these two sites located 600 km apart, implying the bulk rigidity of the Rondonian-San Ignacio crust at that time. Furthermore these data provide new insights on the tectonic significance of the 1100-1000 Ma Nova Brasilandia belt-a major EW feature that cuts across the basement rocks of this province, which can now be interpreted as intracratonic, in contrast to previous interpretation. From a global perspective, a new Mesoproterozoic paleogeography of Columbia has been proposed based on comparison of these 1420 Ma poles and a 1780 Ma pole from Amazonia with other paleomagnetic poles of similar age from Baltica and Laurentia, a reconstruction in agreement with geological correlations. (C) 2012 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of intrusion combined with anterior retraction on apical root resorption

This study evaluated the influence of intrusion mechanics combined with anterior retraction on root resorption of the maxillary incisors. A sample of 56 patients was divided into two groups: group 1 comprised 28 patients (12 females and 16 males), presenting with an increased overjet and deep overbite (6.48 and 4.78 mm, respectively) treated with reverse curve of Spee intrusion mechanics and group 2 comprised 28 patients (12 females and 16 males) with an increased overjet of 5.67 mm and a normal overbite of 1.12 mm. The initial mean ages for groups 1 and 2 were 13.41 and 13.27 years, respectively. Pre- (T1) and post- (T2) treatment periapical radiographs were used to evaluate root resorption. The groups were compared using the Mann- Whitney U- test. Correlation between root resorption and tooth movement was investigated with Spearman's correlation coefficient. The subjects in group 1 had statistically greater root resorption (P < 0.05) than those in group 2. The initial overbite severity and the amount of correction had significant positive correlations with root resorption (r = 0.324 and r = 0.320, respectively). The combination of anterior retraction with intrusive mechanics causes more root resorption than anterior retraction of the maxillary incisors alone.

CIRCULATION AND SALT INTRUSION IN THE PIACAGUERA CHANNEL, SANTOS (SP)

Analysis of thermohaline properties and currents sampled at an anchor station in the Piacaguera Channel (Santos Estuary) in the austral winter was made in terms of tidal (neap and spring tidal cycles) and non-tidal conditions, with the objective to characterize the stratification, circulation and salt transport due to the fortnightly tidal modulation. Classical methods of observational data analysis of hourly and nearly synoptic observations and analytical simulations of nearly steady-state salinity and longitudinal velocity profiles were used. During the neap tidal cycle the flood (v<0) and ebb (v>0) velocities varied in the range of -0.20 m/s to 0.30 m/s associated with a small salinity variation from surface to bottom (26.4 psu to 30.7 psu). In the spring tidal cycle the velocities increased and varied in the range of -0.40 m/s to 0.45 m/s, but the salinity stratification remained almost unaltered. The steady-state salinity and velocity profiles simulated with an analytical model presented good agreement (Skill near 1.0), in comparison with the observational profiles. During the transitional fortnightly tidal modulation period there was no changes in the channel classification (type 2a - partially mixed and weakly stratified), because the potential energy rate was to low to enhance the halocline erosion. These results, associated with the high water column vertical stability (RiL > 20) and the low estuarine Richardson number (RiE = 1.6), lead to the conclusions: i) the driving mechanism for the estuary circulation and mixing was mainly balanced by the fresh water discharge and the tidal forcing associated with the baroclinic component of the gradient pressure force; ii) there was no changes in the thermohaline and circulation characteristics due to the forthnigtly tidal modulation; and iii) the nearly steady-state of the vertical salinity and velocity profiles were well simulated with a theoretical classical analytical model.

Circulation and salt intrusion in the Piaçaguera Channel, Santos (SP)

Analysis of thermohaline properties and currents sampled at an anchor station in the Piaçaguera Channel (Santos Estuary) in the austral winter was made in terms of tidal (neap and spring tidal cycles) and non-tidal conditions, with the objective to characterize the stratification, circulation and salt transport due to the fortnightly tidal modulation. Classical methods of observational data analysis of hourly and nearly synoptic observations and analytical simulations of nearly steady-state salinity and longitudinal velocity profiles were used. During the neap tidal cycle the flood (v<0) and ebb (v>0) velocities varied in the range of -0.20 m/s to 0.30 m/s associated with a small salinity variation from surface to bottom (26.4 psu to 30.7 psu). In the spring tidal cycle the velocities increased and varied in the range of -0.40 m/s to 0.45 m/s, but the salinity stratification remained almost unaltered. The steady-state salinity and velocity profiles simulated with an analytical model presented good agreement (Skill near 1.0), in comparison with the observational profiles. During the transitional fortnightly tidal modulation period there was no changes in the channel classification (type 2a - partially mixed and weakly stratified), because the potential energy rate was to low to enhance the halocline erosion. These results, associated with the high water column vertical stability (RiL >20) and the low estuarine Richardson number (RiE=1.6), lead to the conclusions: i) the driving mechanism for the estuary circulation and mixing was mainly balanced by the fresh water discharge and the tidal forcing associated with the baroclinic component of the gradient pressure force; ii) there was no changes in the thermohaline and circulation characteristics due to the forthnigtly tidal modulation; and iii) the nearly steady-state of the vertical salinity and velocity profiles were well simulated with a theoretical classical analytical model.