A general threshold stress hybrid hazard model for lifetime data

In this paper we propose a hybrid hazard regression model with threshold stress which includes the proportional hazards and the accelerated failure time models as particular cases. To express the behavior of lifetimes the generalized-gamma distribution is assumed and an inverse power law model with a threshold stress is considered. For parameter estimation we develop a sampling-based posterior inference procedure based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. We assume proper but vague priors for the parameters of interest. A simulation study investigates the frequentist properties of the proposed estimators obtained under the assumption of vague priors. Further, some discussions on model selection criteria are given. The methodology is illustrated on simulated and real lifetime data set.

Hybrid Water Demand Forecasting Model Associating Artificial Neural Network with Fourier Series

This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Hybrid Scaffolds Built From PET and Collagen as a Model For Vascular Graft Architecture

A hybrid material with excellent mechanical and biological properties is produced by electrospinning a co-solution of PET and collagen. The fibers are mapped using SEM, confocal Raman microscopy and collagenase digestion assays. Fibers of different compositions and morphologies are intermingled within the same membrane, resulting in a heterogeneous scaffold. The collagen distribution and exposure are found to depend on the PET/collagen ratio. The materials are chemically and mechanically characterized and biologically tested with fibroblasts (3T3-L1) and a HUVEC culture in vitro. All of the hybrid scaffolds show better cell attachment and proliferation than PET. These materials are potential candidates to be used as vascular grafts.

Amerindian anthropology and cultural psychology: Crossing boundaries and meeting otherness` worlds

Addressing integrative possibilities between psychology and anthropology, this paper aims to design conceptual linkages between semiotic-cultural constructivist psychology and the anthropological theory of Amerindian perspectivism. From the psychological view, it is the interdependence between the structural and processual dimensions of the personal culture that makes parallels with Amerindian perspectivism fruitful. This anthropological frame proposes an experiment with native conceptions, which I argue similar to what Baldwin (1906) called sembling. Hence, it can be considered an active imitation of otherness` viewpoint in order to approach indigenous worlds. It is supposed that this procedure leads to the emergence of new symbolic elements configuring the cultural action field of each agency in interaction. It is proposed that ""making-believe`` the Amerindian is convergent with the dialogic-hermeneutic approach of semiotic-cultural constructivism. As a result of the present integrative effort, is designed a meta-model that multiplies the genetic process of concrete symbolic objects.

Regeneration and characterization of somatic hybrids combining sweet orange and mandarin/mandarin hybrid cultivars for citrus scion improvement

Protoplast fusion between sweet orange and mandarin/mandarin hybrids scion cultivars was performed following the model "diploid embryogenic callus protoplast + diploid mesophyll-derived protoplast". Protoplasts were isolated from embryogenic calli of 'Pera' and 'Westin' sweet orange cultivars (Citrus sinensis) and from young leaves of 'Fremont', Nules', and 'Thomas' mandarins (C. reticulata), and 'Nova' tangelo [C. reticulata x (C. paradisi x C. reticulata)]. The regenerated plants were characterized based on their leaf morphology (thickness), ploidy level, and simple sequence repeat (SSR) molecular markers. Plants were successfully generated only when 'Pera' sweet orange was used as the embryogenic parent. Fifteen plants were regenerated being 7 tetraploid and 8 diploid. Based on SSR molecular markers analyses all 7 tetraploid regenerated plants revealed to be allotetraploids (somatic hybrids), including 2 from the combination of 'Pera' sweet orange + 'Fremont' mandarin, 3 'Pera' sweet orange + 'Nules' mandarin, and 2 'Pera' sweet orange + 'Nova' tangelo, and all the diploid regenerated plants showed the 'Pera' sweet orange marker profile. Somatic hybrids were inoculated with Alternaria alternata and no disease symptoms were detected 96 h post-inoculation. This hybrid material has the potential to be used as a tetraploid parent in interploid crosses for citrus scion breeding.

Reference model for implementing an MRP system in a highly diverse component and seasonal lean production environment

Companies are currently choosing to integrate logics and systems to achieve better solutions. These combinations also include companies striving to join the logic of material requirement planning (MRP) system with the systems of lean production. The purpose of this article was to design an MRP as part of the implementation of an enterprise resource planning (ERP) in a company that produces agricultural implements, which has used the lean production system since 1998. This proposal is based on the innovation theory, theory networks, lean production systems, ERP systems and the hybrid production systems, which use both components and MRP systems, as concepts of lean production systems. The analytical approach of innovation networks enables verification of the links and relationships among the companies and departments of the same corporation. The analysis begins with the MRP implementation project carried out in a Brazilian metallurgical company and follows through the operationalisation of the MRP project, until its production stabilisation. The main point is that the MRP system should help the company's operations with regard to its effective agility to respond in time to demand fluctuations, facilitating the creation process and controlling the branch offices in other countries that use components produced in the matrix, hence ensuring more accurate estimates of stockpiles. Consequently, it presents the enterprise knowledge development organisational modelling methodology in order to represent further models (goals, actors and resources, business rules, business process and concepts) that should be included in this MRP implementation process for the new configuration of the production system.

Effect of external fields in Axelrod's model of social dynamics

The study of the effects of spatially uniform fields on the steady-state properties of Axelrod's model has yielded plenty of counterintuitive results. Here, we reexamine the impact of this type of field for a selection of parameters such that the field-free steady state of the model is heterogeneous or multicultural. Analyses of both one- and two-dimensional versions of Axelrod's model indicate that the steady state remains heterogeneous regardless of the value of the field strength. Turning on the field leads to a discontinuous decrease on the number of cultural domains, which we argue is due to the instability of zero-field heterogeneous absorbing configurations. We find, however, that spatially nonuniform fields that implement a consensus rule among the neighborhood of the agents enforce homogenization. Although the overall effects of the fields are essentially the same irrespective of the dimensionality of the model, we argue that the dimensionality has a significant impact on the stability of the field-free homogeneous steady state.

CARBON MARKET AND INSTITUTIONS: OPPORTUNITIES IN THE SEARCH OF A NEW MODEL FOR DEVELOPMENT

Seeking alternatives for the economic system to face the several crises it has gone through lately (electrical power, cultural, financing and technological) brought about a new market involving the Kyoto Protocol signatory countries: the carbon market. The present article aims at assessing the carbon market institutional issue in Brazil by identifying the risks and opportunities inherent to the institutional agent characteristics and to that market rules. The research methodology was bibliographic and based on the analysis of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil (Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios and Bolsa Mercantil de Valores) contents. Its theoretical basis rests on concepts of the institution and the new institutional economy. The results show that in spite of the risks and institutional problems it involves, the carbon market is promising due to the opportunities create by new technologies and energies developed to achieve and sustain the capitalist system new cycle, addressed to produce a clean development.

Cross-cultural adaptation of the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire - Short Form 2006 for Brazil

The objective of this study was to perform a cross-cultural adaptation of the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire - Short Form 2006 for Brazil. The instrument was applied in six hospitals in three regions of Brazil. Content, face, and construct validity was performed. Analysis of the instrument's reliability was performed by verifying the items' internal consistency through Cronbach's alpha. The sample was composed of 1301 professionals working in clinical and surgical wards of six hospitals. Confirmatory analysis showed that the model including 41 items was satisfactory. The Portuguese version presented an alpha of 0.89. The item-total correlations among the domains were moderate to strong, except for the domain Stress Recognition. We concluded that the instrument's version adapted to Portuguese and applied in our sample is valid and reliable.

Decadal Variabilities and Trends in the Southwest Atlantic in a model forced with NCEP Reanalysis from 1960 to 2012

Analysis of the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis show changes in the atmospheric circulation in the Southern hemisphere, with a strengthening and poleward displacement of the westerlies. Because the wind is one of the main sources of the ocean's kinetic energy, a numerical experiment with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) was forced with monthly means of the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis products to investigate the effects of the changes in the wind on the ocean circulation in a geographical domain defined by 98W – 114E; 65S – 60N. The results show good agreement with other models and with available satellite data. In the western sector of the South Atlantic there are several indications of changes such as a poleward displacement of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence and positive trends in temperature and salinity of the southwestern region of the subtropical gyre

O uso da maquete física como ferramenta de leitura do patrimônio cultural

O presente artigo vincula-se às pesquisas do Núcleo de Apoio à Pesquisa em Estudos de Linguagem em Arquitetura e Cidade (N.ELAC), que atua na área de Linguagem e Representação. Diante das diversas formas de representação em arquitetura (desenho, maquete, modelos digitais), nesta pesquisa o modelo tridimensional físico é trazido como ferramenta que proporciona maior facilidade de leitura do projeto e tratado como meio de aproximação da comunidade ao patrimônio arquitetônico, envolvendo, sobretudo, a arquitetura moderna paulista. Como estudo de caso, escolheu-se o Edifício E1, obra de Ernest Mange e Hélio Duarte. Localizado no campus da USP em São Carlos, é considerado patrimônio da cidade, entretanto, encontra-se praticamente enclausurado no interior do campus, dificultando maior contato da comunidade com o edifício. Durante sua execução, foi utilizado apenas o desenho como ferramenta de representação de projeto, não incluindo nenhum tipo de modelo tridimensional (físico ou digital). A partir do levantamento das representações gráficas utilizadas, foi possível fazer uma comparação entre o nível de compreensão do projeto apenas com as peças gráficas dos arquitetos e a partir do modelo físico, produzido pela pesquisadora. Realizou-se um pré-teste em escola pública municipal, que indicou um aumento no interesse desses alunos pelo edifício em questão.

Decadal Variabilities and Trends in the Southwest Atlantic in a model forced with NCEP Reanalysis from 1960 to 2012

Analysis of the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis show changes in the atmospheric circulation in the Southern hemisphere, with a strengthening and poleward displacement of the westerlies. Because the wind is one of the main sources of the ocean's kinetic energy, a numerical experiment with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) was forced with monthly means of the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis products to investigate the effects of the changes in the wind on the ocean circulation in a geographical domain defined by 98W – 114E; 65S – 60N. The results show good agreement with other models and with available satellite data. In the western sector of the South Atlantic there are several indications of changes such as a poleward displacement of the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence and positive trends in temperature and salinity of the southwestern region of the subtropical gyre.