Hybrid Water Demand Forecasting Model Associating Artificial Neural Network with Fourier Series

This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Solvability near the characteristic set for a special class of complex vector fields

This work deals with the solvability near the characteristic set Sigma = {0} x S-1 of operators of the form L = partial derivative/partial derivative t+(x(n) a(x)+ ix(m) b(x))partial derivative/partial derivative x, b not equivalent to 0 and a(0) not equal 0, defined on Omega(epsilon) = (-epsilon, epsilon) x S-1, epsilon > 0, where a and b are real-valued smooth functions in (-epsilon, epsilon) and m >= 2n. It is shown that given f belonging to a subspace of finite codimension of C-infinity (Omega(epsilon)) there is a solution u is an element of L-infinity of the equation Lu = f in a neighborhood of Sigma; moreover, the L-infinity regularity is sharp.

Comparison between the complete Bayesian method and empirical Bayesian method for ARCH models using Brazilian financial time series

In this work we compared the estimates of the parameters of ARCH models using a complete Bayesian method and an empirical Bayesian method in which we adopted a non-informative prior distribution and informative prior distribution, respectively. We also considered a reparameterization of those models in order to map the space of the parameters into real space. This procedure permits choosing prior normal distributions for the transformed parameters. The posterior summaries were obtained using Monte Carlo Markov chain methods (MCMC). The methodology was evaluated by considering the Telebras series from the Brazilian financial market. The results show that the two methods are able to adjust ARCH models with different numbers of parameters. The empirical Bayesian method provided a more parsimonious model to the data and better adjustment than the complete Bayesian method.

Correlation of photodynamic activity and singlet oxygen quantum yields in two series of hydrophobic monocationic porphyrins

The photodynamic properties of eight hydrophobic monocationic methyl and ruthenium polypyridine complex derivatives of free-base and zinc(II) meso-triphenyl-monopyridylporphyrin series were evaluated and compared using HeLa cells as model. The cream-like polymeric nanocapsule formulations of marine atelocollagen/xanthan gum, prepared by the coacervation method, exhibited high phototoxicity but negligible cytotoxicity in the dark. Interestingly, the formulations of a given series presented similar photodynamic activities but the methylated free-base derivatives were significantly more phototoxic than the respective ruthenated photosensitizers, reflecting the higher photoinduced singlet oxygen quantum yields of those monocationic porphyrin dyes.

Reconnection studies under different types of turbulence driving

We study a model of fast magnetic reconnection in the presence of weak turbulence proposed by Lazarian and Vishniac (1999) using three-dimensional direct numerical simulations. The model has been already successfully tested in Kowal et al. (2009) confirming the dependencies of the reconnection speed V-rec on the turbulence injection power P-inj and the injection scale l(inj) expressed by a constraint V-rec similar to P(inj)(1/2)l(inj)(3/4)and no observed dependency on Ohmic resistivity. In Kowal et al. (2009), in order to drive turbulence, we injected velocity fluctuations in Fourier space with frequencies concentrated around k(inj) = 1/l(inj), as described in Alvelius (1999). In this paper, we extend our previous studies by comparing fast magnetic reconnection under different mechanisms of turbulence injection by introducing a new way of turbulence driving. The new method injects velocity or magnetic eddies with a specified amplitude and scale in random locations directly in real space. We provide exact relations between the eddy parameters and turbulent power and injection scale. We performed simulations with new forcing in order to study turbulent power and injection scale dependencies. The results show no discrepancy between models with two different methods of turbulence driving exposing the same scalings in both cases. This is in agreement with the Lazarian and Vishniac (1999) predictions. In addition, we performed a series of models with varying viscosity nu. Although Lazarian and Vishniac (1999) do not provide any prediction for this dependence, we report a weak relation between the reconnection speed with viscosity, V-rec similar to nu(-1/4).

Intraoperative ultrasonography for presumed brain metastases: a case series study

Brain metastases (BM) are one of the most common intracranial tumors and surgical treatment can improve both the functional outcomes and patient survival, particularly when systemic disease is controlled. Image-guided BM resection using intraoperative exams, such as intraoperative ultrasound (IOUS), can lead to better surgical results. Methods: To evaluate the use of IOUS for BM resection, 20 consecutives patients were operated using IOUS to locate tumors, identify their anatomical relationships and surgical cavity after resection. Technical difficulties, complications, recurrence and survival rates were noted. Results: IOUS proved effective for locating, determining borders and defining the anatomical relationships of BM, as well as to identify incomplete tumor resection. No complications related to IOUS were seen. Conclusion: IOUS is a practical supporting method for the resection of BM, but further studies comparing this method with other intraoperative exams are needed to evaluate its actual contribution and reliability.

Analysis Methodology for Vortex-Induced Motion (VIM) of a Monocolumn Platform Applying the Hilbert-Huang Transform Method

Vortex-induced motion (VIM) is a highly nonlinear dynamic phenomenon. Usual spectral analysis methods, using the Fourier transform, rely on the hypotheses of linear and stationary dynamics. A method to treat nonstationary signals that emerge from nonlinear systems is denoted Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) method. The development of an analysis methodology to study the VIM of a monocolumn production, storage, and offloading system using HHT is presented. The purposes of the present methodology are to improve the statistics analysis of VIM. The results showed to be comparable to results obtained from a traditional analysis (mean of the 10% highest peaks) particularly for the motions in the transverse direction, although the difference between the results from the traditional analysis for the motions in the in-line direction showed a difference of around 25%. The results from the HHT analysis are more reliable than the traditional ones, owing to the larger number of points to calculate the statistics characteristics. These results may be used to design risers and mooring lines, as well as to obtain VIM parameters to calibrate numerical predictions. [DOI: 10.1115/1.4003493]

Fractal descriptors based on Fourier spectrum applied to texture analysis

This work proposes the development and study of a novel technique lot the generation of fractal descriptors used in texture analysis. The novel descriptors are obtained from a multiscale transform applied to the Fourier technique of fractal dimension calculus. The power spectrum of the Fourier transform of the image is plotted against the frequency in a log-log scale and a multiscale transform is applied to this curve. The obtained values are taken as the fractal descriptors of the image. The validation of the proposal is performed by the use of the descriptors for the classification of a dataset of texture images whose real classes are previously known. The classification precision is compared to other fractal descriptors known in the literature. The results confirm the efficiency of the proposed method. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of physiologic complexity in time series using generalized sample entropy and surrogate data analysis

Complexity in time series is an intriguing feature of living dynamical systems, with potential use for identification of system state. Although various methods have been proposed for measuring physiologic complexity, uncorrelated time series are often assigned high values of complexity, errouneously classifying them as a complex physiological signals. Here, we propose and discuss a method for complex system analysis based on generalized statistical formalism and surrogate time series. Sample entropy (SampEn) was rewritten inspired in Tsallis generalized entropy, as function of q parameter (qSampEn). qSDiff curves were calculated, which consist of differences between original and surrogate series qSampEn. We evaluated qSDiff for 125 real heart rate variability (HRV) dynamics, divided into groups of 70 healthy, 44 congestive heart failure (CHF), and 11 atrial fibrillation (AF) subjects, and for simulated series of stochastic and chaotic process. The evaluations showed that, for nonperiodic signals, qSDiff curves have a maximum point (qSDiff(max)) for q not equal 1. Values of q where the maximum point occurs and where qSDiff is zero were also evaluated. Only qSDiff(max) values were capable of distinguish HRV groups (p-values 5.10 x 10(-3); 1.11 x 10(-7), and 5.50 x 10(-7) for healthy vs. CHF, healthy vs. AF, and CHF vs. AF, respectively), consistently with the concept of physiologic complexity, and suggests a potential use for chaotic system analysis. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4758815]

Calibration of a Species-Specific Spectral Vegetation Index for Leaf Area Index (LAI) Monitoring: Example with MODIS Reflectance Time-Series on Eucalyptus Plantations

The leaf area index (LAI) is a key characteristic of forest ecosystems. Estimations of LAI from satellite images generally rely on spectral vegetation indices (SVIs) or radiative transfer model (RTM) inversions. We have developed a new and precise method suitable for practical application, consisting of building a species-specific SVI that is best-suited to both sensor and vegetation characteristics. Such an SVI requires calibration on a large number of representative vegetation conditions. We developed a two-step approach: (1) estimation of LAI on a subset of satellite data through RTM inversion; and (2) the calibration of a vegetation index on these estimated LAI. We applied this methodology to Eucalyptus plantations which have highly variable LAI in time and space. Previous results showed that an RTM inversion of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) near-infrared and red reflectance allowed good retrieval performance (R-2 = 0.80, RMSE = 0.41), but was computationally difficult. Here, the RTM results were used to calibrate a dedicated vegetation index (called "EucVI") which gave similar LAI retrieval results but in a simpler way. The R-2 of the regression between measured and EucVI-simulated LAI values on a validation dataset was 0.68, and the RMSE was 0.49. The additional use of stand age and day of year in the SVI equation slightly increased the performance of the index (R-2 = 0.77 and RMSE = 0.41). This simple index opens the way to an easily applicable retrieval of Eucalyptus LAI from MODIS data, which could be used in an operational way.

Electronic Properties of Water in Liquid Environment. A Sequential QM/MM Study Using the Free Energy Gradient Method

There is a continuous search for theoretical methods that are able to describe the effects of the liquid environment on molecular systems. Different methods emphasize different aspects, and the treatment of both the local and bulk properties is still a great challenge. In this work, the electronic properties of a water molecule in liquid environment is studied by performing a relaxation of the geometry and electronic distribution using the free energy gradient method. This is made using a series of steps in each of which we run a purely molecular mechanical (MM) Monte Carlo Metropolis simulation of liquid water and subsequently perform a quantum mechanical/molecular mechanical (QM/MM) calculation of the ensemble averages of the charge distribution, atomic forces, and second derivatives. The MP2/aug-cc-pV5Z level is used to describe the electronic properties of the QM water. B3LYP with specially designed basis functions are used for the magnetic properties. Very good agreement is found for the local properties of water, such as geometry, vibrational frequencies, dipole moment, dipole polarizability, chemical shift, and spin-spin coupling constants. The very good performance of the free energy method combined with a QM/MM approach along with the possible limitations are briefly discussed.

Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging Data Analysis by Autoregressive Estimator

The autoregressive (AR) estimator, a non-parametric method, is used to analyze functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. The same method has been used, with success, in several other time series data analysis. It uses exclusively the available experimental data points to estimate the most plausible power spectra compatible with the experimental data and there is no need to make any assumption about non-measured points. The time series, obtained from fMRI block paradigm data, is analyzed by the AR method to determine the brain active regions involved in the processing of a given stimulus. This method is considerably more reliable than the fast Fourier transform or the parametric methods. The time series corresponding to each image pixel is analyzed using the AR estimator and the corresponding poles are obtained. The pole distribution gives the shape of power spectra, and the pixels with poles at the stimulation frequency are considered as the active regions. The method was applied in simulated and real data, its superiority is shown by the receiver operating characteristic curves which were obtained using the simulated data.

Structural refinement, growth process, photoluminescence and photocatalytic properties of (Ba1-xPr2x/3)WO4 crystals synthesized by the coprecipitation method

Barium praseodymium tungstate (Ba1-xPr2x/3)WO4 crystals with (x = 0, 0.01, and 0.02) were prepared by the coprecipitation method. These crystals were structurally characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), Rietveld refinements, Fourier-transform Raman (FT-Raman) and Fourier-transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopies. The shape and size of these crystals were observed by field emission scanning electron microcopy (FE-SEM). Their optical properties were investigated by ultraviolet visible (UV-vis) absorption and photoluminescence (PL) measurements. Moreover, we have studied the photocatalytic (PC) activity of crystals for degradation of rhodamine B (RhB) dye. XRD patterns, Rietveld refinements data, FT-Raman and FT-IR spectroscopies indicate that all crystals exhibit a tetragonal structure without deleterious phases. FT-Raman spectra exhibited 13 Raman-active modes in a range from 50 to 1000 cm(-1), while FT-IR spectra have 8 infrared active modes in a range from 200 to 1050 cm(-1). FE-SEM images showed different shapes (bonbon-, spindle-, rice-and flake-like) as well as a reduction in the crystal size with an increase in Pr3+ ions. A possible growth process was proposed for these crystals. UV-vis absorption measurements revealed a decrease in optical band gap values with an increase of Pr3+ into the matrix. An intense green PL emission was noted for (Ba1-xPr2x/3)WO4 crystals (x = 0), while crystals with (x = 0.01 and 0.02) produced a reduction in the wide band PL emission and the narrow band PL emission which is related to f-f transitions from Pr3+ ions. High photocatalytic efficiency was verified for the bonbon-like BaWO4 crystals as a catalyst in the degradation of the RhB dye after 25 min under UV-light. Finally, we discuss possible mechanisms for PL and PC properties of these crystals.

A Validated Chromatographic Method for the Determination of Flavonoids in Copaifera langsdorffii by HPLC

Hydroethanolic extracts of C. langsdorffii leaves have therapeutic potential. This work reports a validated chromatographic method for the quantification of polar compounds in the hydroethanolic extract of C. langsdorffii leaves. A reliable HPLC method was developed using two monolithic columns linked in series (100 x 4.6 mm - C-18), with nonlinear gradient elution, and UV detection set at 257 nm. A procedure for the extraction of flavonols was also developed, which involved the use of 70% aqueous ethanol and the addition of benzophenone as the internal standard. The developed method led to a good detection response as the values for linearity were between 10.3 and 1000 mu g/mL, and those for recovery between 84.2 and 111.1%. The detection limit ranged from 0.02 to 1.70 mu g/mL and the quantitation limit from 0.07 to 5.1 mu g/mL, with a maximum RSD of 5.24%. Five compounds, rutin, quercetin-3-O-alpha-L-rhamnopyranoside, kaempferol-3-O-alpha-L-rhamnopyranoside, quercetin and kaempferol, were quantified. This method could, therefore, be used for the quality control of hydroethanolic extracts of Copaifera leaves and their cosmetic and pharmaceutical products.

Gaussian deconvolution: a useful method for a form-free modeling of scattering data from mono- and multilayered planar systems

A new method for analysis of scattering data from lamellar bilayer systems is presented. The method employs a form-free description of the cross-section structure of the bilayer and the fit is performed directly to the scattering data, introducing also a structure factor when required. The cross-section structure (electron density profile in the case of X-ray scattering) is described by a set of Gaussian functions and the technique is termed Gaussian deconvolution. The coefficients of the Gaussians are optimized using a constrained least-squares routine that induces smoothness of the electron density profile. The optimization is coupled with the point-of-inflection method for determining the optimal weight of the smoothness. With the new approach, it is possible to optimize simultaneously the form factor, structure factor and several other parameters in the model. The applicability of this method is demonstrated by using it in a study of a multilamellar system composed of lecithin bilayers, where the form factor and structure factor are obtained simultaneously, and the obtained results provided new insight into this very well known system.