25 resultados para Discrete Conditional Phase-type model

em Biblioteca Digital da Produção Intelectual da Universidade de São Paulo


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We propose a stage-structured integrodifference model for blowflies' growth and dispersion taking into account the density dependence of fertility and survival rates and the non-overlap of generations. We assume a discrete-time, stage-structured, model. The spatial dynamics is introduced by means of a redistribution kernel. We treat one and two dimensional cases, the latter on the semi-plane, with a reflexive boundary. We analytically show that the upper bound for the invasion front speed is the same as in the one-dimensional case. Using laboratory data for fertility and survival parameters and dispersal data of a single generation from a capture-recapture experiment in South Africa, we obtain an estimate for the velocity of invasion of blowflies of the species Chrysomya albiceps. This model predicts a speed of invasion which was compared to actual observational data for the invasion of the focal species in the Neotropics. Good agreement was found between model and observations.

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In this paper, we propose three novel mathematical models for the two-stage lot-sizing and scheduling problems present in many process industries. The problem shares a continuous or quasi-continuous production feature upstream and a discrete manufacturing feature downstream, which must be synchronized. Different time-based scale representations are discussed. The first formulation encompasses a discrete-time representation. The second one is a hybrid continuous-discrete model. The last formulation is based on a continuous-time model representation. Computational tests with state-of-the-art MIP solver show that the discrete-time representation provides better feasible solutions in short running time. On the other hand, the hybrid model achieves better solutions for longer computational times and was able to prove optimality more often. The continuous-type model is the most flexible of the three for incorporating additional operational requirements, at a cost of having the worst computational performance. Journal of the Operational Research Society (2012) 63, 1613-1630. doi:10.1057/jors.2011.159 published online 7 March 2012

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Warrick and Hussen developed in the nineties of the last century a method to scale Richards' equation (RE) for similar soils. In this paper, new scaled solutions are added to the method of Warrick and Hussen considering a wider range of soils regardless of their dissimilarity. Gardner-Kozeny hydraulic functions are adopted instead of Brooks-Corey functions used originally by Warrick and Hussen. These functions allow to reduce the dependence of the scaled RE on the soil properties. To evaluate the proposed method (PM), the scaled RE was solved numerically using a finite difference method with a fully implicit scheme. Three cases were considered: constant-head infiltration, constant-flux infiltration, and drainage of an initially uniform wet soil. The results for five texturally different soils ranging from sand to clay (adopted from the literature) showed that the scaled solutions were invariant to a satisfactory degree. However, slight deviations were observed mainly for the sandy soil. Moreover, the scaled solutions deviated when the soil profile was initially wet in the infiltration case or when deeply wet in the drainage condition. Based on the PM, a Philip-type model was also developed to approximate RE solutions for the constant-head infiltration. The model showed a good agreement with the scaled RE for the same range of soils and conditions, however only for Gardner-Kozeny soils. Such a procedure reduces numerical calculations and provides additional opportunities for solving the highly nonlinear RE for unsaturated water flow in soils. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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In this contribution, the multiconfigurational second-order perturbation theory method based on a complete active space reference wave function (CASSCF/CASPT2) is applied to study all possible single and double proton/hydrogen transfers between the nucleobases in the adenine-thymine (AT) base pair, analyzing the role of excited states with different nature [localized (LE) and charge transfer (CT)] and considering concerted as well as step-wise mechanisms. According to the findings, once the lowest excited states, localized in adenine, are populated during UV irradiation of the Watson-Crick base pair, the proton transfer in the N-O bridge does not require high energy in order to populate a CT state. The latter state will immediately relax toward a crossing with the ground state, which will funnel the system to either the canonical structure or the imino-enol tautomer. The base pair is also capable of repairing itself easily since the imino-enol species is unstable to thermal conversion.

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The fractioning of lemon essential oil can be performed by liquid-liquid extraction using hydrous ethanol as a solvent. A quaternary mixture composed of limonene, gamma-terpinene, beta-pinene, and citral was used to simulate lemon essential oil. In this paper, we present (liquid + liquid) equilibrium data that were experimentally determined for systems containing essential oil compounds, ethanol, and water at T = 298.2 K. The experimental data were correlated using the NRTL and UNIQUAC models, and the mean deviations between calculated and experimental data were less than 0.0053 in all systems, indicating the accuracy of these molecular models in describing our systems. The results show that as the water content in the solvent phase increased, the values of the distribution coefficients decreased, regardless of the type of compound studied. However, the oxygenated compound always showed the highest distribution coefficient among the components of the essential oil, thus making deterpenation of the lemon essential oil a feasible process. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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We report self-similar properties of periodic structures remarkably organized in the two-parameter space for a two-gene system, described by two-dimensional symmetric map. The map consists of difference equations derived from the chemical reactions for gene expression and regulation. We characterize the system by using Lyapunov exponents and isoperiodic diagrams identifying periodic windows, denominated Arnold tongues and shrimp-shaped structures. Period-adding sequences are observed for both periodic windows. We also identify Fibonacci-type series and Golden ratio for Arnold tongues, and period multiple-of-three windows for shrimps. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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We employ the approach of stochastic dynamics to describe the dissemination of vector-borne diseases such as dengue, and we focus our attention on the characterization of the threshold of the epidemic. The coexistence space comprises two representative spatial structures for both human and mosquito populations. The human population has its evolution described by a process that is similar to the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) dynamics. The population of mosquitoes follows a dynamic of the type of the Susceptible Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model. The coexistence space is a bipartite lattice constituted by two structures representing the human and mosquito populations. We develop a truncation scheme to solve the evolution equations for the densities and the two-site correlations from which we get the threshold of the disease and the reproductive ratio. We present a precise deØnition of the reproductive ratio which reveals the importance of the correlations developed in the early stage of the disease. According to our deØnition, the reproductive rate is directed related to the conditional probability of the occurrence of a susceptible human (mosquito) given the presence in the neighborhood of an infected mosquito (human). The threshold of the epidemic as well as the phase transition between the epidemic and the non-epidemic states are also obtained by performing Monte Carlo simulations. References: [1] David R. de Souza, T^ania Tom∂e, , Suani R. T. Pinho, Florisneide R. Barreto and M∂ario J. de Oliveira, Phys. Rev. E 87, 012709 (2013). [2] D. R. de Souza, T. Tom∂e and R. M. ZiÆ, J. Stat. Mech. P03006 (2011).

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We use an infinite-range Maier-Saupe model, with two sets of local quadrupolar variables and restricted orientations, to investigate the global phase diagram of a coupled system of two nematic subsystems. The free energy and the equations of state are exactly calculated by standard techniques of statistical mechanics. The nematic-isotropic transition temperature of system A increases with both the interaction energy among mesogens of system B, and the two-subsystem coupling J. This enhancement of the nematic phase is manifested in a global phase diagram in terms of the interaction parameters and the temperature T. We make some comments on the connections of these results with experimental findings for a system of diluted ferroelectric nanoparticles embedded in a nematic liquid-crystalline environment.

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A fast method was optimized and validated in order to quantify amphetamine-type stimulants (amphetamine, AMP; methamphetamine, MAMP; fenproporex, FPX; 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine, MDMA; and 3,4-methylenedioxyamphetamine, MDA) in human hair samples. The method was based in an initial procedure of decontamination of hair samples (50 mg) with dichloromethane, followed by alkaline hydrolysis and extraction of the amphetamines using hollow-fiber liquid-phase micro extraction (HF-LPME) in the three-phase mode. Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) was used for identification and quantification of the analytes. The LoQs obtained for all amphetamines (around 0.05 ng/mg) were below the cut-off value (0.2 ng/mg) established by the Society of Hair Testing (SoHT). The method showed to be simple and precise. The intra-day and inter-day precisions were within 10.6% and 11.4%, respectively, with the use of only two deuteratecl internal standards (AMP-d5 and MDMA-d5). By using the weighted least squares linear regression (1/x(2)), the accuracy of the method was satisfied in the lower concentration levels (accuracy values better than 87%). Hair samples collected from six volunteers who reported regular use of amphetamines were submitted to the developed method. Drug detection was observed in all samples of the volunteers. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Crown ethers have the ability of solubilizing inorganic salts in apolar solvents and to promote chemical reactions by phase-transfer catalysis. However, details on how crown ethers catalyze ionic S(N)2 reactions and control selectivity are not well understood. In this work, we have used high level theoretical calculations to shed light on the details of phase-transfer catalysis mechanism of KF reaction with alkyl halides promoted by 18-crown-6. A complete analysis of the of the model reaction between KF(18-crown-6) and ethyl bromide reveals that the calculations can accurately predict the product ratio and the overall kinetics. Our results point out the importance of the K* ion and of the crown ether ring in determining product selectivity. While the K* ion favors the S(N)2 over the E2 anti pathway, the crown ether ring favors the S(N)2 over E2 syn route. The combination effects lead to a predicted 94% for the S(N)2 pathway in excellent agreement with the experimental value of 92%. A detailed analysis of the overall mechanism of the reaction under phase-transfer conditions also reveals that the KBr product generated in the nucleophilic fluorination acts as an inhibitor of the 18-crown-6 catalyst and it is responsible for the observed slow reaction rate. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Intranasal inoculation of equid herpesvirus type-1 (EHV-1) Brazilian strains A4/72 and A9/92 induced an acute and lethal infection in four different inbred mouse strains. Clinical and neurological signs appeared between the 2nd and 3rd day post inoculation (dpi) and included weight loss, ruffled fur, a hunched posture, crouching in corners, nasal and ocular discharges, dyspnoea, dehydration and increased salivation. These signs were followed by increased reactivity to external stimulation, seizures, recumbency and death. The virus was recovered consistently from the brain and viscera of all mice with neurological signs. Histopathological changes consisted of leptomeningitis, focal haemorrhage, ventriculitis, neuronal degeneration and necrosis, neuronophagia, non-suppurative inflammation, multifocal gliosis and perivascular infiltration of polymorphonuclear and mononuclear cells. Immunohistochemical examination demonstrated that EHV-1 strains A4/72 and A9/92 replicated in neurons of the olfactory bulb, the cortex and the hippocampus. In contrast, mice inoculated with the EHV-1 Brazilian strain A3/97 showed neither weight loss nor apparent clinical or neurological signs; however, the virus was recovered consistently from their lungs at 3 dpi. These three EHV-1 strains showed distinct degrees of virulence and tissue tropism in mice. EHV-1 strains A4/72 and A9/92 exhibited a high degree of central nervous system tropism with neuroinvasion and neurovirulence. EHV-1 strain A3/97 was not neurovirulent despite being detected in the brains of infected BALB/c nude mice. These findings indicate that several inbred mouse strains are susceptible to neuropathogenic EHV-1 strains and should be useful models for studying the pathogenesis and mechanisms contributing to EHV-induced myeloencephalopathy in horses. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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We investigate the effects of quenched disorder on first-order quantum phase transitions on the example of the N-color quantum Ashkin-Teller model. By means of a strong-disorder renormalization group, we demonstrate that quenched disorder rounds the first-order quantum phase transition to a continuous one for both weak and strong coupling between the colors. In the strong-coupling case, we find a distinct type of infinite-randomness critical point characterized by additional internal degrees of freedom. We investigate its critical properties in detail and find stronger thermodynamic singularities than in the random transverse field Ising chain. We also discuss the implications for higher spatial dimensions as well as unusual aspects of our renormalization-group scheme. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevB.86.214204

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A non-Markovian one-dimensional random walk model is studied with emphasis on the phase-diagram, showing all the diffusion regimes, along with the exactly determined critical lines. The model, known as the Alzheimer walk, is endowed with memory-controlled diffusion, responsible for the model's long-range correlations, and is characterized by a rich variety of diffusive regimes. The importance of this model is that superdiffusion arises due not to memory per se, but rather also due to loss of memory. The recently reported numerically and analytically estimated values for the Hurst exponent are hereby reviewed. We report the finding of two, previously overlooked, phases, namely, evanescent log-periodic diffusion and log-periodic diffusion with escape, both with Hurst exponent H = 1/2. In the former, the log-periodicity gets damped, whereas in the latter the first moment diverges. These phases further enrich the already intricate phase diagram. The results are discussed in the context of phase transitions, aging phenomena, and symmetry breaking.

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We have performed multicanonical simulations to study the critical behavior of the two-dimensional Ising model with dipole interactions. This study concerns the thermodynamic phase transitions in the range of the interaction delta where the phase characterized by striped configurations of width h = 1 is observed. Controversial results obtained from local update algorithms have been reported for this region, including the claimed existence of a second-order phase transition line that becomes first order above a tricritical point located somewhere between delta = 0.85 and 1. Our analysis relies on the complex partition function zeros obtained with high statistics from multicanonical simulations. Finite size scaling relations for the leading partition function zeros yield critical exponents. that are clearly consistent with a single second-order phase transition line, thus excluding such a tricritical point in that region of the phase diagram. This conclusion is further supported by analysis of the specific heat and susceptibility of the orientational order parameter.

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Cost-effectiveness and budget impact of saxagliptine as additional therapy to metformin for the treatment of diabetes mellitus type 2 in the Brazilian private health system Objectives: To compare costs and clinical benefits of three additional therapies to metformin (MF) for patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2). Methods: A discrete event simulation model seas built to estimate the cost-utility ratio (cost per quality-adjusted life years [QALY)) of saxagliptine as an additional therapy to MF when compared to rosiglitazone or pioglitazone. A budget impact model (BIM) was built to simulate the economic impact of saxagliptine use in the context of the Brazilian private health system. Results: The acquiring medication costs for the hypothetical patient group analyzed in a time frame of three years, were R$ 10,850,185, R$ 14,836,265 and R$ 14,679,099 for saxagliptine, pioglitazone and rosiglitazone, respectively. Saxagliptine showed lower costs and greater effectiveness in both comparisons, with projected savings for the first three years of R$ 3,874 and R$ 3,996, respectively. The BIM estimated cumulative savings of R$ 417,958 with the repayment of saxagliptine in three years from the perspective of a health plan with 1,000,000 covered individuals. Conclusion: From the perspective of private paying source, the projection is that adding saxagliptine with MF save costs when compared with the addition of rosiglitazone or pioglitazone in patients with DM2 that have not reached the HbA1c goal with metformin monotherapy. The BIM of including saxagliptine in the reimbursement lists of health plans indicated significant savings on the three-year horizon.