A general threshold stress hybrid hazard model for lifetime data

In this paper we propose a hybrid hazard regression model with threshold stress which includes the proportional hazards and the accelerated failure time models as particular cases. To express the behavior of lifetimes the generalized-gamma distribution is assumed and an inverse power law model with a threshold stress is considered. For parameter estimation we develop a sampling-based posterior inference procedure based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. We assume proper but vague priors for the parameters of interest. A simulation study investigates the frequentist properties of the proposed estimators obtained under the assumption of vague priors. Further, some discussions on model selection criteria are given. The methodology is illustrated on simulated and real lifetime data set.

Survival Analysis of Patients with Heart Failure: Implications of Time-Varying Regression Effects in Modeling Mortality

Background: Several models have been designed to predict survival of patients with heart failure. These, while available and widely used for both stratifying and deciding upon different treatment options on the individual level, have several limitations. Specifically, some clinical variables that may influence prognosis may have an influence that change over time. Statistical models that include such characteristic may help in evaluating prognosis. The aim of the present study was to analyze and quantify the impact of modeling heart failure survival allowing for covariates with time-varying effects known to be independent predictors of overall mortality in this clinical setting. Methodology: Survival data from an inception cohort of five hundred patients diagnosed with heart failure functional class III and IV between 2002 and 2004 and followed-up to 2006 were analyzed by using the proportional hazards Cox model and variations of the Cox's model and also of the Aalen's additive model. Principal Findings: One-hundred and eighty eight (188) patients died during follow-up. For patients under study, age, serum sodium, hemoglobin, serum creatinine, and left ventricular ejection fraction were significantly associated with mortality. Evidence of time-varying effect was suggested for the last three. Both high hemoglobin and high LV ejection fraction were associated with a reduced risk of dying with a stronger initial effect. High creatinine, associated with an increased risk of dying, also presented an initial stronger effect. The impact of age and sodium were constant over time. Conclusions: The current study points to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects in heart failure models. The analysis performed suggests that variations of Cox and Aalen models constitute a valuable tool for identifying these variables. The implementation of covariates with time-varying effects into heart failure prognostication models may reduce bias and increase the specificity of such models.

Effluent volume and dialysis dose in CRRT: time for reappraisal

The results of several studies assessing dialysis dose have dampened the enthusiasm of clinicians for considering dialysis dose as a modifiable factor influencing outcomes in patients with acute kidney injury. Powerful evidence from two large, multicenter trials indicates that increasing the dialysis dose, measured as hourly effluent volume, has no benefit in continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT). However, some important operational characteristics that affect delivered dose were not evaluated. Effluent volume does not correspond to the actual delivered dose, as a decline in filter efficacy reduces solute removal during therapy. We believe that providing accurate parameters of delivered dose could improve the delivery of a prescribed dose and refine the assessment of the effect of dose on outcomes in critically ill patients treated with CRRT.

Tragedy on grade crossing: driver failure or systemic fragility?

In 2010, an accident occurred in Americana-SP, Brazil, involving two trains and one bus on a Grade Crossing, when 10 people died and 17 were injured including workers. This paper aims to analyze the accident using the Model of Analysis and Prevention of Work Accidents (MAPA). The method provides observation of work, interviews and analysis of documents to understand precedents of the event in the following stages: to understand the usual work from the involved people, the changes occurred in the system, the operation of barriers, managerial and organizational aspects. By the end, measures are suggested to avoid new occurrences. The accident took place at night in a site with insufficient lighting. The working conditions of bus drivers, train operators and watchmen are inadequate. There were only symbolic barriers (visual and acoustic signals) triggered manually by watchman upon train operator radio communication. The fragility of the barrier system associated to poor lighting and short time to trigger the signaling seem to play a critical role in the event. Contrary to the official report which resulted in guilt of the bus driver, the conclusion of the paper emphasizes the fragility of the safety system and the need of level crossing reproject.

Bivariate gamma-geometric law and its induced Levy process

In this article we introduce a three-parameter extension of the bivariate exponential-geometric (BEG) law (Kozubowski and Panorska, 2005) [4]. We refer to this new distribution as the bivariate gamma-geometric (BGG) law. A bivariate random vector (X, N) follows the BGG law if N has geometric distribution and X may be represented (in law) as a sum of N independent and identically distributed gamma variables, where these variables are independent of N. Statistical properties such as moment generation and characteristic functions, moments and a variance-covariance matrix are provided. The marginal and conditional laws are also studied. We show that BBG distribution is infinitely divisible, just as the BEG model is. Further, we provide alternative representations for the BGG distribution and show that it enjoys a geometric stability property. Maximum likelihood estimation and inference are discussed and a reparametrization is proposed in order to obtain orthogonality of the parameters. We present an application to a real data set where our model provides a better fit than the BEG model. Our bivariate distribution induces a bivariate Levy process with correlated gamma and negative binomial processes, which extends the bivariate Levy motion proposed by Kozubowski et al. (2008) [6]. The marginals of our Levy motion are a mixture of gamma and negative binomial processes and we named it BMixGNB motion. Basic properties such as stochastic self-similarity and the covariance matrix of the process are presented. The bivariate distribution at fixed time of our BMixGNB process is also studied and some results are derived, including a discussion about maximum likelihood estimation and inference. (C) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pilates in Heart Failure Patients: A Randomized Controlled Pilot Trial

Background: Conventional cardiac rehabilitation program consist of 15 min of warm-up, 30 min of aerobic exercise and followed by 15 min calisthenics exercise. The Pilates method has been increasingly applied for its therapeutic benefits, however little scientific evidence supports or rebukes its use as a treatment in patients with heart failure (HF). Purpose: Investigate the effects of Pilates on exercise capacity variables in HF. Methods: Sixteen pts with HF, left ventricular ejection fraction 27 +/- 14%, NYHA class III were randomly assigned to conventional cardiac rehabilitation program (n = 8) or mat Pilates training (n = 8) for 16 weeks of 30 min of aerobic exercise followed by 20 min of the specific program. Results: At 16 weeks, pts in the mat Pilates group and conventional group showed significantly increase on exercise time 11.9 +/- 2.5 to 17.8 +/- 4 and 11.7 +/- 3.9 to 14.2 +/- 4 min, respectively. However, only the Pilates group increased significantly the ventilation (from 56 +/- 20 to 69 +/- 17 L/min, P= 0.02), peak VO2 (from 20.9 +/- 6 to 24.8 +/- 6 mL/kg/min, P= 0.01), and O-2 pulse (from 11.9 +/- 2 to 13.8 +/- 3 mL/bpm, P= 0.003). The Pilates group showed significantly increase in peak VO2 when compared with conventional group (24.8 +/- 6 vs. 18.3 +/- 4, P= 0.02). Conclusions: The result suggests that the Pilates method may be a beneficial adjunctive treatment that enhances functional capacity in patients with HF who are already receiving standard medical therapy.

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in severe hypoxemia: time for reappraisal?

in 2009, during the influenza A (H1N1) epidemic, there were many reported cases of pulmonary infection with severe hypoxemia that was refractory to the ventilatory strategies and rescue therapies commonly used to treat patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome. Many of those cases were treated with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), which renewed international interest in the technique. The Extracorporeal Support Study Group was created in order to practice ECMO and to employ it in the treatment of patients with severe hypoxemia. In this article, we discuss the indications for using ECMO and report the case of a patient with refractory hypoxemia who was successfully treated with ECMO.

Exercise training prevents oxidative stress and ubiquitin-proteasome system overactivity and reverse skeletal muscle atrophy in heart failure

Background: Heart failure (HF) is known to lead to skeletal muscle atrophy and dysfunction. However, intracellular mechanisms underlying HF-induced myopathy are not fully understood. We hypothesized that HF would increase oxidative stress and ubiquitin-proteasome system (UPS) activation in skeletal muscle of sympathetic hyperactivity mouse model. We also tested the hypothesis that aerobic exercise training (AET) would reestablish UPS activation in mice and human HF. Methods/Principal Findings: Time-course evaluation of plantaris muscle cross-sectional area, lipid hydroperoxidation, protein carbonylation and chymotrypsin-like proteasome activity was performed in a mouse model of sympathetic hyperactivity-induced HF. At the 7th month of age, HF mice displayed skeletal muscle atrophy, increased oxidative stress and UPS overactivation. Moderate-intensity AET restored lipid hydroperoxides and carbonylated protein levels paralleled by reduced E3 ligases mRNA levels, and reestablished chymotrypsin-like proteasome activity and plantaris trophicity. In human HF (patients randomized to sedentary or moderate-intensity AET protocol), skeletal muscle chymotrypsin-like proteasome activity was also increased and AET restored it to healthy control subjects' levels. Conclusions: Collectively, our data provide evidence that AET effectively counteracts redox imbalance and UPS overactivation, preventing skeletal myopathy and exercise intolerance in sympathetic hyperactivity-induced HF in mice. Of particular interest, AET attenuates skeletal muscle proteasome activity paralleled by improved aerobic capacity in HF patients, which is not achieved by drug treatment itself. Altogether these findings strengthen the clinical relevance of AET in the treatment of HF.

Evaluation of physiologic complexity in time series using generalized sample entropy and surrogate data analysis

Complexity in time series is an intriguing feature of living dynamical systems, with potential use for identification of system state. Although various methods have been proposed for measuring physiologic complexity, uncorrelated time series are often assigned high values of complexity, errouneously classifying them as a complex physiological signals. Here, we propose and discuss a method for complex system analysis based on generalized statistical formalism and surrogate time series. Sample entropy (SampEn) was rewritten inspired in Tsallis generalized entropy, as function of q parameter (qSampEn). qSDiff curves were calculated, which consist of differences between original and surrogate series qSampEn. We evaluated qSDiff for 125 real heart rate variability (HRV) dynamics, divided into groups of 70 healthy, 44 congestive heart failure (CHF), and 11 atrial fibrillation (AF) subjects, and for simulated series of stochastic and chaotic process. The evaluations showed that, for nonperiodic signals, qSDiff curves have a maximum point (qSDiff(max)) for q not equal 1. Values of q where the maximum point occurs and where qSDiff is zero were also evaluated. Only qSDiff(max) values were capable of distinguish HRV groups (p-values 5.10 x 10(-3); 1.11 x 10(-7), and 5.50 x 10(-7) for healthy vs. CHF, healthy vs. AF, and CHF vs. AF, respectively), consistently with the concept of physiologic complexity, and suggests a potential use for chaotic system analysis. (C) 2012 American Institute of Physics. [http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4758815]

Postmortem diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction in patients with acute respiratory failure - demographics, etiologic and pulmonary histologic analysis

OBJECTIVES: Acute respiratory failure is present in 5% of patients with acute myocardial infarction and is responsible for 20% to 30% of the fatal post-acute myocardial infarction. The role of inflammation associated with pulmonary edema as a cause of acute respiratory failure post-acute myocardial infarction remains to be determined. We aimed to describe the demographics, etiologic data and histological pulmonary findings obtained through autopsies of patients who died during the period from 1990 to 2008 due to acute respiratory failure with no diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction during life. METHODS: This study considers 4,223 autopsies of patients who died of acute respiratory failure that was not preceded by any particular diagnosis while they were alive. The diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction was given in 218 (4.63%) patients. The age, sex and major associated diseases were recorded for each patient. Pulmonary histopathology was categorized as follows: diffuse alveolar damage, pulmonary edema, alveolar hemorrhage and lymphoplasmacytic interstitial pneumonia. The odds ratio of acute myocardial infarction associated with specific histopathology was determined by logistic regression. RESULTS: In total, 147 men were included in the study. The mean age at the time of death was 64 years. Pulmonary histopathology revealed pulmonary edema as well as the presence of diffuse alveolar damage in 72.9% of patients. Bacterial bronchopneumonia was present in 11.9% of patients, systemic arterial hypertension in 10.1% and dilated cardiomyopathy in 6.9%. A multivariate analysis demonstrated a significant positive association between acute myocardial infarction with diffuse alveolar damage and pulmonary edema. CONCLUSIONS: For the first time, we demonstrated that in autopsies of patients with acute respiratory failure as the cause of death, 5% were diagnosed with acute myocardial infarction. Pulmonary histology revealed a significant inflammatory response, which has not previously been reported.

HIV-1 Proviral DNA Loads (as Determined by Quantitative PCR) in Patients Subjected to Structured Treatment Interruption after Antiretroviral Therapy Failure

The impact of Structured Treatment Interruption (STI) in peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) proviral reservoirs in 41 highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART)-treated viremic individuals at baseline and 12 weeks after STI was determined using quantitative PCR (qPCR). Viral load increased 0.7 log(10) and CD4 decreased 97.5 cells/mm(3) after 12 weeks. A total of 28 of the 41 individuals showed an increased proviral load, 19 with a statistically significant increase above 10%. An increase in active viral replication is an important factor in the replenishment of the proviral reservoir even for short time periods.

Time course of hydrogen peroxide-thioredoxin balance and its influence on the intracellular signalling in myocardial infarction

We investigated the myocardial thioredoxin-1 and hydrogen peroxide concentrations and their association with some prosurvival and pro-apoptotic proteins, during the transition from myocardial infarction (MI) to heart failure in rats. Male Wistar rats were divided into the following six groups: three sham-operated groups and three MI groups, each at at 2, 7 and 28 days postsurgery. Cardiac function was analysed by echocardiography; the concentration of H2O2 and the ratio of reduced to oxidized glutathione were measured spectrophotometrically, while the myocardial immunocontent of thioredoxin-1, angiotensin II, angiotensin II type 1 and type 2 receptors, p-JNK/JNK, p-ERK/ERK, p-Akt/Akt, p-mTOR/mTOR and p-GSK3 beta/GSK3 beta was evaluated by Western blot. Our results show that thioredoxin-1 appears to make an important contribution to the reduced H2O2 concentration. It was associated with lower JNK expression in the early period post-MI (2 days). However, thioredoxin-1 decreased, while reninangiotensin system markers and levels of H2O2 increased, over 28 days post-MI, in parallel with some signalling proteins involved in maladaptative cardiac remodelling and ventricular dysfunction. These findings provide insight into the time course profile of endogenous antioxidant adaptation to ischaemic injury, which may be useful for the design of therapeutical strategies targeting oxidative stress post-MI.

Probabilistic failure modelling of reinforced concrete structures subjected to chloride penetration

Structural durability is an important criterion that must be evaluated for every type of structure. Concerning reinforced concrete members, chloride diffusion process is widely used to evaluate durability, especially when these structures are constructed in aggressive atmospheres. The chloride ingress triggers the corrosion of reinforcements; therefore, by modelling this phenomenon, the corrosion process can be better evaluated as well as the structural durability. The corrosion begins when a threshold level of chloride concentration is reached at the steel bars of reinforcements. Despite the robustness of several models proposed in literature, deterministic approaches fail to predict accurately the corrosion time initiation due the inherent randomness observed in this process. In this regard, structural durability can be more realistically represented using probabilistic approaches. This paper addresses the analyses of probabilistic corrosion time initiation in reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride penetration. The chloride penetration is modelled using the Fick's diffusion law. This law simulates the chloride diffusion process considering time-dependent effects. The probability of failure is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation and the first order reliability method, with a direct coupling approach. Some examples are considered in order to study these phenomena. Moreover, a simplified method is proposed to determine optimal values for concrete cover.

Factors associated with failure of clinical screening among blood donors who have altered serological results in the Centro Regional de Hemoterapia de Ribeirão Preto

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the frequency of positive results for hepatitis B and C, HIV and syphilis in blood donations at the Centro Regional de Hemoterapia de Ribeirão Preto, to describe donors with positive results according to some demographic and socioeconomic variables, to identify risk factors associated to these donors and the reasons that they were not detected during clinical screening. METHODS: A descriptive study was performed between July 1st 2005 and July 31st 2006 by interviewing 106 donors after medical consultations where they were informed of positive results for hepatitis B, hepatitis C, HIV or syphilis. RESULTS: There was a predominance of first-time donors, males, under 50-year olds, married individuals, from Ribeirão Preto, with elementary education, low economic status and of people who donated at the request of friends or relatives. Hepatitis C was the most frequently detected infection (56.6%), followed by hepatitis B (20.7%), HIV (12.3%) and syphilis(10.4%). About 40% of donors had omitted risk factors for different reasons: because they trusted the results of serological tests, did not feel comfortable about talking of risk factors or did not consider them relevant. Other justifications were the duration of the interview, the interviewer was unskilled, embarrassment and doubts about confidentiality. CONCLUSION: The results indicate the need for changes in the approach to clinical screening and a review of methods to attract and guide potential donors.

Postmortem diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction in patients with acute respiratory failure: demographics, etiologic and pulmonary histologic analysis

OBJECTIVES: Acute respiratory failure is present in 5% of patients with acute myocardial infarction and is responsible for 20% to 30% of the fatal post-acute myocardial infarction. The role of inflammation associated with pulmonary edema as a cause of acute respiratory failure post-acute myocardial infarction remains to be determined. We aimed to describe the demographics, etiologic data and histological pulmonary findings obtained through autopsies of patients who died during the period from 1990 to 2008 due to acute respiratory failure with no diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction during life. METHODS: This study considers 4,223 autopsies of patients who died of acute respiratory failure that was not preceded by any particular diagnosis while they were alive. The diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction was given in 218 (4.63%) patients. The age, sex and major associated diseases were recorded for each patient. Pulmonary histopathology was categorized as follows: diffuse alveolar damage, pulmonary edema, alveolar hemorrhage and lymphoplasmacytic interstitial pneumonia. The odds ratio of acute myocardial infarction associated with specific histopathology was determined by logistic regression. RESULTS: In total, 147 men were included in the study. The mean age at the time of death was 64 years. Pulmonary histopathology revealed pulmonary edema as well as the presence of diffuse alveolar damage in 72.9% of patients. Bacterial bronchopneumonia was present in 11.9% of patients, systemic arterial hypertension in 10.1% and dilated cardiomyopathy in 6.9%. A multivariate analysis demonstrated a significant positive association between acute myocardial infarction with diffuse alveolar damage and pulmonary edema. CONCLUSIONS: For the first time, we demonstrated that in autopsies of patients with acute respiratory failure as the cause of death, 5% were diagnosed with acute myocardial infarction. Pulmonary histology revealed a significant inflammatory response, which has not previously been reported.