Comparison between the complete Bayesian method and empirical Bayesian method for ARCH models using Brazilian financial time series

In this work we compared the estimates of the parameters of ARCH models using a complete Bayesian method and an empirical Bayesian method in which we adopted a non-informative prior distribution and informative prior distribution, respectively. We also considered a reparameterization of those models in order to map the space of the parameters into real space. This procedure permits choosing prior normal distributions for the transformed parameters. The posterior summaries were obtained using Monte Carlo Markov chain methods (MCMC). The methodology was evaluated by considering the Telebras series from the Brazilian financial market. The results show that the two methods are able to adjust ARCH models with different numbers of parameters. The empirical Bayesian method provided a more parsimonious model to the data and better adjustment than the complete Bayesian method.

Guidelines for the Brazilian ceramic sector strategic development, based on a comparison with the Italian market

Based on a structured literature review, the ceramic tiles sector of Italy (benchmark) and Brazil (2nd world producer and consumer) are compared, under four strategic factors: normative, market, technology and strategic management, in order to identify critical risks for a national strategic sector. The document aims to propose guidelines for a strategic re-planning of the Brazilian ceramic tiles sector, making the Brazilian producers aware of the national market fragility (in spite of its recent remarkable evolution) and helping the policy makers to reflect on the need of reviewing the strategic planning methods and practice, of designing new targeted programs (based on coherence between operation and business strategies), of providing improved management to strengthen the sector against unfair competition by low-cost producers, enhancing the necessary infrastructure in technology, work, marketing and quality management. The analysis is limited to the single-firing production technology. The wide-coverage strategic analysis of the Brazilian ceramic tiles sector, very little studied until now in a scientific way, emphasizes the importance of applying research methodology and may be valuable to both scholars and practitioners. Additionally, it highlights the need of investments in innovation (product design and production technology) and the fundamental role of the sector organization, identifying different dimensions. It is possible to conclude that the recent Brazilian production growth is not due to a natural strengthening because of the hit of the sector and of correct enterprises strategy, but it seems the result of a temporary and favorable economic contingency.

Reliability, Validity and Classification Accuracy of the South Oaks Gambling Screen in a Brazilian Sample

The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability, validity and classification accuracy of the South Oaks Gambling Screen (SOGS) in a sample of the Brazilian population. Participants in this study were drawn from three sources: 71 men and women from the general population interviewed at a metropolitan train station; 116 men and women encountered at a bingo venue; and 54 men and women undergoing treatment for gambling. The SOGS and a DSM-IV-based instrument were applied by trained researchers. The internal consistency of the SOGS was 0.75 according to the Cronbach`s alpha model, and construct validity was good. A significant difference among groups was demonstrated by ANOVA (F ((2.238)) = 221.3, P < 0.001). The SOGS items and DSM-IV symptoms were highly correlated (r = 0.854, P < 0.01). The SOGS also presented satisfactory psychometric properties: sensitivity (100), specificity (74.7), positive predictive rate (60.7), negative predictive rate (100) and misclassification rate (0.18). However, a cut-off score of eight improved classification accuracy and reduced the rate of false positives: sensitivity (95.4), specificity (89.8), positive predictive rate (78.5), negative predictive rate (98) and misclassification rate (0.09). Thus, the SOGS was found to be reliable and valid in the Brazilian population.

Cross-cultural adaptation and assessment of the reliability and validity of the Core Outcome Measures Index (COMI) for the Brazilian-Portuguese language

The use of patient-orientated questionnaires is of utmost importance in assessing the outcome of spine surgery. Standardisation, using a common set of outcome measures, is essential to aid comparisons across studies/in registries. The Core Outcome Measures Index (COMI) is a short, multidimensional outcome instrument validated for patients with spinal disorders. This study aimed to produce a Brazilian-Portuguese version of the COMI. A cross-cultural adaptation of the COMI into Brazilian-Portuguese was carried out using established guidelines. 104 outpatients with chronic LBP (> 3 months) were recruited from a Public Health Spine Medical Care Centre. They completed a questionnaire booklet containing the newly translated COMI, and other validated symptom-specific questionnaires: Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) and Roland Morris disability scale (RM), and a pain visual analogue scale. All patients completed a second questionnaire within 7-10 days to assess reproducibility. The COMI summary score displayed minimal floor and ceiling effects. On re-test, the responses for each individual domain of the COMI were within 1 category in 98% patients for the domain 'function', 96% for 'symptom-specific well-being', 97% for 'general quality of life', 99% for 'social disability' and 100% for 'work disability'. The intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC2,1) for COMI pain and COMI summary scores were 0.91-0.96, which compared favourably with the corresponding values for the RM (ICC, 0.99) and ODI (ICC, 0.98). The standard error of measurement for the COMI was 0.6, giving a "minimum detectable change" (MDC95%) of approximately 1.7 points i.e., the minimum change to be considered "real change" beyond measurement error. The COMI scores correlated as hypothesised (Rho, 0.4-0.8) with the other symptom-specific questionnaires. The reproducibility of the Brazilian-Portuguese version of the COMI was comparable to that of other language versions. The COMI scores correlated in the expected manner with existing but longer symptom-specific questionnaires suggesting good convergent validity for the COMI. The Brazilian-Portuguese COMI represents a valuable tool for Brazilian study-centres in future multicentre clinical studies and surgical registries.

The Brazilian National Health Agency and the Mental Health Policy in the Context of the Private Health System: developments and challenges

This work analyses the mental health policy-making activity of the Brazilian National Health Agency (ANS), responsible for controlling health insurance companies. Three points are discussed: a) the framework of an economic and private health assistance regulatory activity, b) the ANS and its regulation activity and c) the rules produced by ANS in the mental health care field. It was concluded that, despite advances like the legal obligation to ensure medical treatment to all the diseases listed in ICD-10, the inclusion of suicidal patient damage and self-inflicted damage care, care provided by a multiprofessional team, the increase in the number of sessions with a psychologist, with an occupational therapist and of psychotherapy sessions, and mental health day hospitals included as part of the services offered, the authors identified specific regulatory gaps in this area. Some issues that ANS has to solve so that it can really play its institutional role of defending the public interest in the private health system are: the regulation of co-participation and franchise mechanisms, the increasing co-participation as a limitation of psychiatric hospitalization, and the limited number of crisis intervention psychotherapy sessions.

SPATIO-TEMPORAL AND FUNCTIONAL STRUCTURE OF THE AMPHIPOD COMMUNITIES OFF SANTOS, SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC

The amphipod fauna was employed to investigate a bottom environmental gradient in the continental shelf adjacent to Santos Bay. The constant flow of less saline water from the estuarine complex of the Santos and Sao Vicente rivers besides the seasonal intrusion of the cold saline South Atlantic Central Water (SACW) bring a highly dynamic water regime to the area. Density, distribution, diversity and functional structure of the communities were studied on a depth gradient from 10 to 100 m on two cruises in contrasting seasons, winter 2005 and summer 2006. Twenty-one sediment samples were taken with a 0.09m(2) box corer. Temperature and salinity were measured at each station and an additional surface sediment sample was obtained with the box corer for granulometric and chemical analyses. Sixty species were collected on each survey and higher density values were found in summer. A priori one-way Analysis of Similarities (ANOSIM) indicated the existence of three different groups of amphipods related to the depth gradient: the Coastal group, the Mixed Zone group and the Deep Zone group. The Coastal Zone in both cruises was inhabited by a community presenting low diversity and density, besides high dominance of the infaunal tube-dweller Ampelisca paria; the area around 30 m presented the highest values of all the ecological indicators and the species showed several life styles; the outer area, situated between 50 and 100 m depth in the SACW domain, presented a community characterized by lower diversity and high biomass and density values. A season-depth ANOSIM showed the influence of depth and season for the Coastal and Mixed Zone groups whereas no seasonal difference was obtained for the Deep Zone group. The synergistic effect of the SACW and depth in the first place, followed by physical changes in substrate, seem to be the main factors controlling the fauna's distribution. In addition, the estuarine waters from Santos Bay apparently had no effect on the establishment of the environmental gradient observed on the adjacent shelf. Diversity, distribution, functional groups and trophic conditions of superficial sediments are discussed in the light of the main oceanographic processes present on the southern Brazilian shelf.

Evolution of Precambrian life in the Brazilian geological record

Precambrian rocks comprise nearly one-quarter of the surface of Brazil and range from Paleoarchean (ca. 3.6 Ga) to the latest Ediacaran (0.542 Ga) in age. Except for controversial phosphatized 'embryo-like' microfossils like those from the lower Ediacaran Doushantuo Formation, China and complex rangeomorphs, Brazilian research has revealed all major categories of Precambrian life forms described elsewhere - microbialites, biomarkers, silicified microfossils, palynomorphs, vase-shaped microfossils, macroalgae, metazoans, vendobionts and ichnofossils - but the paleobiological significance of this record has been little explored. At least four occurrences of these fossils offer promise for increased understanding of the following aspects of Precambrian biospheric evolution: (i) the relationship of microbialites in 2.1-2.4 Ga old carbonates of the Minas Supergroup in the Quadrilatero Ferrifero, Minas Gerais (the oldest Brazilian fossils) to the development of the early oxygenic atmosphere and penecontemporaneous global tectonic and climatic events; (ii) the evolutionary and biostratigraphic significance of Mesoproterozoic to Ediacaran organic-walled microfossils in central-western Brazil; (iii) diversity and paleoecological significance of vase-shaped heterotrophic protistan microfossils in the Urucum Formation (Jacadigo Group) and possibly the Bocaina Formation (Corumba Group), of Mato Grosso do Sul; and (iv) insights into the record of skeletogenesis and paleoecology of latest Ediacaran metazoans as represented by the abundant organic carapaces of Corumbella and calcareous shells of the index fossil Cloudina, of the Corumba Group, Mato Grosso do Sul. Analysis of the Brazilian Precambrian fossil record thus holds great potential for augmenting paleobiological knowledge of this crucial period on Earth and for developing more robust hypotheses regarding possible origins and evolutionary pathways of biospheres on other planets. Received 26 February 2012, accepted 17 May 2012, first published online 18 June 2012

Seasonal Distribution of Airborne Trace Elements and Water-Soluble Ions in Sao Paulo Megacity, Brazil

This study deals with the seasonal distribution of Al, Ca, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Na, Pb and Zn and water soluble ions (Cl-, PO43-, NO3-, SO42-, HCOO-, CH3COO-, oxalate, succinate, Na+, NH4+, K+, Mg2+ and Ca2+) found in PM10 samples (particulate matter less than 10 mu m in diameter) Sao Paulo City, Brazil, (April 2003-May 2004). Higher atmospheric levels were found for SO42-, NO3-, Cl- and PO43- while the main organic anions were oxalate and formate. Atmospheric levels for elements were: Fe > Al > Ca > K > Na > Mg > Zn > Cu > Pb. Some sources were predominant for some species: (i) fuel burning and/or biomass burning (NO3-, HCOO-, C2O42-, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, Fe, Pb, Zn, Al, Ca, K and Mg), (ii) gas-to-particle conversion (SO42- and NH4+) and (iii) sea salt spray (Cl-, Na+ and Na).

Translation and Cross-cultural Adaptation of the Lower Extremity Functional Scale Into a Brazilian Portuguese Version and Validation on Patients With Knee Injuries

STUDY DESIGN: Clinical measurement. OBJECTIVE: To translate and culturally adapt the Lower Extremity Functional Scale (LEFS) into a Brazilian Portuguese version, and to test the construct and content validity and reliability of this version in patients with knee injuries. BACKGROUND: There is no Brazilian Portuguese version of an instrument to assess the function of the lower extremity after orthopaedic injury. METHODS: The translation of the original English version of the LEFS into a Brazilian Portuguese version was accomplished using standard guidelines and tested in 31 patients with knee injuries. Subsequently, 87 patients with a variety of knee disorders completed the Brazilian Portuguese LEES, the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey, the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index, and the International Knee Documentation Committee Subjective Knee Evaluation Form and a visual analog scale for pain. All patients were retested within 2 days to determine reliability of these measures. Validation was assessed by determining the level of association between the Brazilian Portuguese LEFS and the other outcome measures. Reliability was documented by calculating internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and standard error of measurement. RESULTS: The Brazilian Portuguese LEES had a high level of association with the physical component of the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey (r = 0.82), the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (r = 0.87), the International Knee Documentation Committee Subjective Knee Evaluation Form (r = 0.82), and the pain visual analog scale (r = -0.60) (all, P<.05). The Brazilian Portuguese LEES had a low level of association with the mental component of the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey (r = 0.38, P<.05). The internal consistency (Cronbach alpha = .952) and test-retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.957) of the Brazilian Portuguese version of the LEES were high. The standard error of measurement was low (3.6) and the agreement was considered high, demonstrated by the small differences between test and retest and the narrow limit of agreement, as observed in Bland-Altman and survival-agreement plots. CONCLUSION: The translation of the LEFS into a Brazilian Portuguese version was successful in preserving the semantic and measurement properties of the original version and was shown to be valid and reliable in a Brazilian population with knee injuries. J Ort hop Sports Phys Ther 2012;42(11):932-939, Epub 9 October 2012. doi:10.2519/jospt.2012.4101

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact of saxagliptine as additional therapy to metformin for the treatment of diabetes mellitus type 2 in the Brazilian private health system

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact of saxagliptine as additional therapy to metformin for the treatment of diabetes mellitus type 2 in the Brazilian private health system Objectives: To compare costs and clinical benefits of three additional therapies to metformin (MF) for patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2). Methods: A discrete event simulation model seas built to estimate the cost-utility ratio (cost per quality-adjusted life years [QALY)) of saxagliptine as an additional therapy to MF when compared to rosiglitazone or pioglitazone. A budget impact model (BIM) was built to simulate the economic impact of saxagliptine use in the context of the Brazilian private health system. Results: The acquiring medication costs for the hypothetical patient group analyzed in a time frame of three years, were R$ 10,850,185, R$ 14,836,265 and R$ 14,679,099 for saxagliptine, pioglitazone and rosiglitazone, respectively. Saxagliptine showed lower costs and greater effectiveness in both comparisons, with projected savings for the first three years of R$ 3,874 and R$ 3,996, respectively. The BIM estimated cumulative savings of R$ 417,958 with the repayment of saxagliptine in three years from the perspective of a health plan with 1,000,000 covered individuals. Conclusion: From the perspective of private paying source, the projection is that adding saxagliptine with MF save costs when compared with the addition of rosiglitazone or pioglitazone in patients with DM2 that have not reached the HbA1c goal with metformin monotherapy. The BIM of including saxagliptine in the reimbursement lists of health plans indicated significant savings on the three-year horizon.

Centre of excellence for women artistic gymnastics: The Brazilian coaches' perspective

During the period of 2001 and 2008, the Brazilian Gymnastics Confederation implemented the gymnasts training boarding center system at the Curitiba Training Center (TC). Using the former Soviet Union model of sports boarding schools, the Brazilian gymnasts started to train together under the supervision of a technical team led by a renowned foreign coach. This article aims to discuss the context of the TC and the system of centralized preparation of the Brazilian women artistic gymnastics (WAG) showing the point of view of the coaches. We conducted a field survey and we interviewed 34 coaches of 29 sport institutions. Among the positive aspects, the coaches reported about the better infrastructure available to the gymnasts. The negative aspects refer to the problems regarding rigorous training, the polarization and the consequent monopolization of athletes showing lack of adaptation of the Soviet model to the WAG characteristics developed in Brazil.

No evidence of selenosis from a selenium-rich diet in the Brazilian Amazon

Selenium (Se) is an essential element and a well-known anti-oxidant. In the Lower Tapajos River region of the Brazilian Amazon, biomarkers of Se range from normal to very high. The local traditional diet includes important Se sources such as Brazil nuts, chicken, game meat and certain fish species. Some studies have reported alterations in keratin structure, gastrointestinal problems and paresthesia in populations with high Se intake. The objective of the present study was to evaluate cutaneous and garlic odor of the breath signs and sentinel symptoms of Se toxicity (selenosis) in relation to Se status in communities along the Tapajos River. Participants (N = 448), aged 15-87 years, were recruited from 12 communities. Se concentrations were measured in blood (B-Se) and plasma (P-Se) by ICP-MS. A nurse performed an examination of the hair, nails, skin and breath for signs of Se toxicity. Interview-administered questionnaires were used to collect information on socio-demographics, medical history and possible symptoms of Se toxicity. In this population, the median levels of B-Se and P-Se were 228.4 mu g/L (range 103.3-1500.2 mu g/L) and 134.8 mu g/L (range 53.6-913.2 mu g/L) respectively. Although B-Se and P-Se surpassed concentrations considered toxic (B-Se: 1000 mu g/L (U.S. EPA, 2002)), no dermal or breath signs or symptoms of Se toxicity were associated with the biomarkers of Se status. In the present study population, where Se intake is mostly from traditional diet, there is no evidence of selenosis. These findings support the need to re-assess Se toxicity considering factors such as the chemical form of Se exposure, route of exposure (inhaled versus ingested), co-exposures to toxic elements such as mercury. Considering the current food transition towards a western diet in the Amazon, further studies should address the possible association between high Se status and cardiometabolic health in this study population. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of Anti-Neospora caninum and Anti-Toxoplasma gondii Antibodies in Dogs From Two Different Indigenous Communities in the Brazilian Amazon Region

Prevalence of Toxoplasma gondii and Neospora caninum antibodies in sera of 325 dogs in 11 villages inhabited by the Tapirape and Karaja ethnic groups in the south of the Brazilian Amazon was determined by the use of an indirect fluorescence antibody test. Antibodies (cutoff 1:16) to T. gondii were found in 169 (52%) and to N. caninum (cutoff 1:50) in 32 (9.8%) of 325 dogs. Seropositivity for both parasitic infections was widely prevalent in dogs from these villages and was higher in older dogs, indicating post-natal transmission.

Responsiveness to change for the Brazilian Scale of Oral Health Outcomes for 5-year-old children (SOHO-5)

Abstract Background The responsiveness of oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL) instruments has become relevant, given the increasing tendency to use OHRQoL measures as outcomes in clinical trials and evaluations studies. The purpose of this study was to assess the responsiveness of the Brazilian Scale of Oral Health Outcomes for 5-year-old children (SOHO-5) to dental treatment. Methods One hundred and fifty-four children and their parents completed the child self- and parental’ reports of the SOHO-5 prior to treatment and 7 to 14 days after the completion of treatment. The post-treatment questionnaire also included a global transition judgment that assessed subject’s perceptions of change in their oral health following treatment. Change scores were calculated by subtracting post-treatment SOHO-5 scores from pre-treatment scores. Longitudinal construct validity was assessed by using one-way analysis of variance to examine the association between change scores and the global transition judgments. Measures of responsiveness included standardized effect sizes (ES) and standardized response mean (SRM). Results The improvement of children’s oral health after treatment are reflected in mean pre- and post-treatment SOHO-5 scores that declined from 2.67 to 0.61 (p < 0.001) for the child-self reports, and 4.04 to 0.71 (p < 0.001) for the parental reports. Mean change scores showed a gradient in the expected direction across categories of the global transition judgment, and there were significant differences in the pre- and post-treatment scores of those who reported improving a little (p < 0.05) and those who reported improving a lot (p < 0.001). For both versions, the ES and SRM based on change scores mean for total scores and for categories of global transitions judgments were moderate to large. Conclusions The Brazilian SOHO-5 is responsive to change and can be used as an outcome indicator in future clinical trials. Both the parental and the child versions presented satisfactory results.

Common bile duct stones: analysis of the videolaparoscopic surgical treatment

CONTEXT: About 9% of the Brazilian population has gallstones and the incidence increases significantly with aging. The choledocholithiasis is found around 15% of these patients, and a third to half of these cases presented as asymptomatic. Once the lithiasis in the common bile duct is characterized through intraoperative cholangiography, the laparoscopic surgical exploration can be done through the transcystic way or directly through choledochotomy. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the results and outcomes of the laparoscopic treatment of common bile duct lithiasis. METHODS: Seventy consecutive patients were evaluated. They prospectively underwent the treatment of the lithiasis in the common bile duct and the exploration ways were compared according to the following parameters: criteria on their indication, success in the clearance, surgical complications. It was verified that about ½ of the choledocholithiasis carriers did not show any expression of predictive factors (clinical antecedents of jaundice and/or acute pancreatitis, compatible sonographic data and the pertaining lab tests). The laparoscopic exploration through the transcystic way is favored when there are no criteria for the practice of primary choledochotomy, which are: lithiasis in the proximal bile duct, large (over 8 mm) or numerous calculi (multiple calculosis). RESULTS: The transcystic way was employed in about 50% of the casuistic and the choledochotomy in about 30%. A high success rate (around 80%) was achieved in the clearance of the common bile duct stones through laparoscopic exploration. The transcystic way, performed without fluoroscopy or choledochoscopy, attained a low rate of success (around 45%), being 10% of those by transpapilar pushing of calculi less than 3 mm. The exploration through choledochotomy, either primary or secondary, if the latter was performed after the transcystic route failure, showed high success rate (around 95%). When the indication to choledochotomy was primary, the necessity for choledochoscopy through choledochotomy to help in the removal of the calculi was 55%. However, when choledochotomy was performed secondarily, in situations where the common bile duct diameter was larger than 6 mm, the use of choledochoscopy with the same purpose involved about 20% of the cases. There was no mortality in this series. CONCLUSION: The laparoscopic exploration of the common bile duct was related to a low rate of morbidity. Therefore, the use of laparoscopy for the treatment of the lithiasis in the common bile duct depends on the criteria for the choice of the best access, making it a safe procedure with very good results.