Sets of probability distributions, independence, and convexity

This paper analyzes concepts of independence and assumptions of convexity in the theory of sets of probability distributions. The starting point is Kyburg and Pittarelli's discussion of "convex Bayesianism" (in particular their proposals concerning E-admissibility, independence, and convexity). The paper offers an organized review of the literature on independence for sets of probability distributions; new results on graphoid properties and on the justification of "strong independence" (using exchangeability) are presented. Finally, the connection between Kyburg and Pittarelli's results and recent developments on the axiomatization of non-binary preferences, and its impact on "complete" independence, are described.

Cannabidiol-treated Rats Exhibited Higher Motor Score After Cryogenic Spinal Cord Injury

Cannabidiol (CBD), a non-psychoactive constituent of cannabis, has been reported to induce neuroprotective effects in several experimental models of brain injury. We aimed at investigating whether this drug could also improve locomotor recovery of rats submitted to spinal cord cryoinjury. Rats were distributed into five experimental groups. Animals were submitted to laminectomy in vertebral segment T10 followed or not by application of liquid nitrogen for 5 s into the spinal cord at the same level to cause cryoinjury. The animals received injections of vehicle or CBD (20 mg/kg) immediately before, 3 h after and daily for 6 days after surgery. The Basso, Beattie, and Bresnahan motor evaluation test was used to assess motor function post-lesion one day before surgery and on the first, third, and seventh postoperative days. The extent of injury was evaluated by hematoxylin-eosin histology and FosB expression. Cryogenic lesion of the spinal cord resulted in a significant motor deficit. Cannabidiol-treated rats exhibited a higher Basso, Beattie, and Bresnahan locomotor score at the end of the first week after spinal cord injury: lesion + vehicle, day 1: zero, day 7: four, and lesion + Cannabidiol 20 mg/kg, day 1: zero, day 7: seven. Moreover, at this moment there was a significant reduction in the extent of tissue injury and FosB expression in the ventral horn of the spinal cord. The present study confirmed that application of liquid nitrogen to the spinal cord induces reproducible and quantifiable spinal cord injury associated with locomotor function impairments. Cannabidiol improved locomotor functional recovery and reduced injury extent, suggesting that it could be useful in the treatment of spinal cord lesions.

Propensity score matching approach to test the association of income inequality and mortality in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background Support for the adverse effect of high income inequality on population health has come from studies that focus on larger areas, such as the US states, while studies at smaller geographical areas (eg, neighbourhoods) have found mixed results. Methods We used propensity score matching to examine the relationship between income inequality and mortality rates across 96 neighbourhoods (distritos) of the municipality of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Results Prior to matching, higher income inequality distritos (Gini >= 0.25) had slightly lower overall mortality rates (2.23 per 10 000, 95% CI -23.92 to 19.46) compared to lower income inequality areas (Gini <0.25). After propensity score matching, higher inequality was associated with a statistically significant higher mortality rate (41.58 per 10 000, 95% CI 8.85 to 73.3). Conclusion In Sao Paulo, the more egalitarian communities are among some of the poorest, with the worst health profiles. Propensity score matching was used to avoid inappropriate comparisons between the health status of unequal (but wealthy) neighbourhoods versus equal (but poor) neighbourhoods. Our methods suggest that, with proper accounting of heterogeneity between areas, income inequality is associated with worse population health in Sao Paulo.

Optic Disc Margin Anatomy in Patients with Glaucoma and Normal Controls with Spectral Domain Optical Coherence Tomography

Objective: To characterize optic nerve head (ONH) anatomy related to the clinical optic disc margin with spectral domain-optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). Design: Cross-sectional study. Participants: Patients with open-angle glaucoma with focal, diffuse, and sclerotic optic disc damage, and age-matched normal controls. Methods: High-resolution radial SD-OCT B-scans centered on the ONH were analyzed at each clock hour. For each scan, the border tissue of Elschnig was classified for obliqueness (internally oblique, externally oblique, or nonoblique) and the presence of Bruch's membrane overhanging the border tissue. Optic disc stereophotographs were co-localized to SD-OCT data with customized software. The frequency with which the disc margin identified in stereophotographs coincided with (1) Bruch's membrane opening (BMO), defined as the innermost edge of Bruch's membrane; (2) Bruch's membrane/border tissue, defined as any aspect of either outside BMO or border tissue; or (3) border tissue, defined as any aspect of border tissue alone, in the B-scans was computed at each clock hour. Main Outcome Measures: The SD-OCT structures coinciding with the disc margin in stereophotographs. Results: There were 30 patients (10 with each type of disc damage) and 10 controls, with a median (range) age of 68.1 (42-86) years and 63.5 (42-77) years, respectively. Although 28 patients (93%) had 2 or more border tissue configurations, the most predominant one was internally oblique, primarily superiorly and nasally, frequently with Bruch's membrane overhang. Externally oblique border tissue was less frequent, observed mostly inferiorly and temporally. In controls, there was predominantly internally oblique configuration around the disc. Although the configurations were not statistically different between patients and controls, they were among the 3 glaucoma groups. At most locations, the SD-OCT structure most frequently identified as the disc margin was some aspect of Bruch's membrane and border tissue external to BMO. Bruch's membrane overhang was regionally present in the majority of patients with glaucoma and controls; however, in most cases it was not visible as the disc margin. Conclusions: The clinically perceived disc margin is most likely not the innermost edge of Bruch's membrane detected by SD-OCT. These findings have important implications for the automated detection of the disc margin and estimates of the neuroretinal rim. Financial Disclosure(s): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found after the references. Ophthalmology 2012;119:738-747 (C) 2012 by the American Academy of Ophthalmology.

Six minute walk test Z score: Correlations with cystic fibrosis severity markers

Background: The six-minute-walk-test (6MWT) has been increasingly used in cystic fibrosis (CF) patients. However, few studies in children have correlated 6MWT with current parameters used to evaluate CF severity. Moreover, no study transformed the values of distance walked from meters into Z scores to avoid bias like age and gender, which are sources of 6MWT variability. Methods: A cross-sectional descriptive study was performed to analyze the correlations (Spearman) among forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), body mass index (BMI), chest radiography (CXR), chest tomography (CT), and 6MWT Z score (Z-6MWT). Clinically stable CF patients, aged 6-21 years, were included. Results: 34 patients, 14F/20M, mean age 12.1 +/- 4.0 years were studied. The mean Z-6MWT was -1.1 +/- 1.106. The following correlations versus Z-6MWT were found: FEV1 (r=0.59, r(2)=0.32, p=0.0002), BMI Z score (r=0.42, r(2)=0.17, p=0.013), CXR (r=0.34, r(2)=0.15, p=0.0472) and CT (r=-0.45, r(2)=0.23, p=0.0073). Conclusions: In conclusion there was a significant, but poor, correlation between the six minute walk test Z score and the cystic fibrosis severity markers currently in use. (C) 2011 European Cystic Fibrosis Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction and probability of neonatal outcome in isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia using multiple ultrasound parameters

Objectives To evaluate the accuracy and probabilities of different fetal ultrasound parameters to predict neonatal outcome in isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH). Methods Between January 2004 and December 2010, we evaluated prospectively 108 fetuses with isolated CDH (82 left-sided and 26 right-sided). The following parameters were evaluated: gestational age at diagnosis, side of the diaphragmatic defect, presence of polyhydramnios, presence of liver herniated into the fetal thorax (liver-up), lung-to-head ratio (LHR) and observed/expected LHR (o/e-LHR), observed/expected contralateral and total fetal lung volume (o/e-ContFLV and o/e-TotFLV) ratios, ultrasonographic fetal lung volume/fetal weight ratio (US-FLW), observed/expected contralateral and main pulmonary artery diameter (o/e-ContPA and o/eMPA) ratios and the contralateral vascularization index (Cont-VI). The outcomes were neonatal death and severe postnatal pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Results Neonatal mortality was 64.8% (70/108). Severe PAH was diagnosed in 68 (63.0%) cases, of which 63 died neonatally (92.6%) (P < 0.001). Gestational age at diagnosis, side of the defect and polyhydramnios were not associated with poor outcome (P > 0.05). LHR, o/eLHR, liver-up, o/e-ContFLV, o/e-TotFLV, US-FLW, o/eContPA, o/e-MPA and Cont-VI were associated with both neonatal death and severe postnatal PAH (P < 0.001). Receiver-operating characteristics curves indicated that measuring total lung volumes (o/e-TotFLV and US-FLW) was more accurate than was considering only the contralateral lung sizes (LHR, o/e-LHR and o/e-ContFLV; P < 0.05), and Cont-VI was the most accurate ultrasound parameter to predict neonatal death and severe PAH (P < 0.001). Conclusions Evaluating total lung volumes is more accurate than is measuring only the contralateral lung size. Evaluating pulmonary vascularization (Cont-VI) is the most accurate predictor of neonatal outcome. Estimating the probability of survival and severe PAH allows classification of cases according to prognosis. Copyright (C) 2011 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The local power of the gradient test

The asymptotic expansion of the distribution of the gradient test statistic is derived for a composite hypothesis under a sequence of Pitman alternative hypotheses converging to the null hypothesis at rate n(-1/2), n being the sample size. Comparisons of the local powers of the gradient, likelihood ratio, Wald and score tests reveal no uniform superiority property. The power performance of all four criteria in one-parameter exponential family is examined.

PCR colorimetric dot-blot assay and clinical pretest probability for diagnosis of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Smear-Negative patients

Abstract Background Smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPTB) accounts for 30% of Pulmonary Tuberculosis (PTB) cases reported annually in developing nations. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) may provide an alternative for the rapid detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB); however little data are available regarding the clinical utility of PCR in SNPTB, in a setting with a high burden of TB/HIV co-infection. Methods To evaluate the performance of the PCR dot-blot in parallel with pretest probability (Clinical Suspicion) in patients suspected of having SNPTB, a prospective study of 213 individuals with clinical and radiological suspicion of SNPTB was carried out from May 2003 to May 2004, in a TB/HIV reference hospital. Respiratory specialists estimated the pretest probability of active disease into high, intermediate, low categories. Expectorated sputum was examined by direct microscopy (Ziehl-Neelsen staining), culture (Lowenstein Jensen) and PCR dot-blot. Gold standard was based on culture positivity combined with the clinical definition of PTB. Results In smear-negative and HIV subjects, active PTB was diagnosed in 28.4% (43/151) and 42.2% (19/45), respectively. In the high, intermediate and low pretest probability categories active PTB was diagnosed in 67.4% (31/46), 24% (6/25), 7.5% (6/80), respectively. PCR had sensitivity of 65% (CI 95%: 50%–78%) and specificity of 83% (CI 95%: 75%–89%). There was no difference in the sensitivity of PCR in relation to HIV status. PCR sensitivity and specificity among non-previously TB treated and those treated in the past were, respectively: 69%, 43%, 85% and 80%. The high pretest probability, when used as a diagnostic test, had sensitivity of 72% (CI 95%:57%–84%) and specificity of 86% (CI 95%:78%–92%). Using the PCR dot-blot in parallel with high pretest probability as a diagnostic test, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were: 90%, 71%, 75%, and 88%, respectively. Among non-previously TB treated and HIV subjects, this approach had sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of 91%, 79%, 81%, 90%, and 90%, 65%, 72%, 88%, respectively. Conclusion PCR dot-blot associated with a high clinical suspicion may provide an important contribution to the diagnosis of SNPTB mainly in patients that have not been previously treated attended at a TB/HIV reference hospital.

Clinical judgment to estimate pretest probability in the diagnosis of Cushing's syndrome under a Bayesian perspective

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the pretest probability of Cushing's syndrome (CS) diagnosis by a Bayesian approach using intuitive clinical judgment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Physicians were requested, in seven endocrinology meetings, to answer three questions: "Based on your personal expertise, after obtaining clinical history and physical examination, without using laboratorial tests, what is your probability of diagnosing Cushing's Syndrome?"; "For how long have you been practicing Endocrinology?"; and "Where do you work?". A Bayesian beta regression, using the WinBugs software was employed. RESULTS: We obtained 294 questionnaires. The mean pretest probability of CS diagnosis was 51.6% (95%CI: 48.7-54.3). The probability was directly related to experience in endocrinology, but not with the place of work. CONCLUSION: Pretest probability of CS diagnosis was estimated using a Bayesian methodology. Although pretest likelihood can be context-dependent, experience based on years of practice may help the practitioner to diagnosis CS. Arq Bras Endocrinol Metab. 2012;56(9):633-7

Nursing Activities Score e demanda de trabalho de enfermagem em terapia intensiva

OBJETIVO: Medir e caracterizar a carga de trabalho de enfermagem em Unidade de Terapia Intensiva (UTI) por meio da aplicação do Nursing Activities Score (NAS). MÉTODOS: Estudo descritivo quantitativo, retrospectivo, realizado em uma das UTIs de um Hospital Filantrópico de Teresina- PI, de setembro a outubro de 2010, com amostra de 66 pacientes. Foram realizadas 285 medidas do escore NAS. RESULTADOS: Quanto à carga de trabalho de enfermagem, foi verificada uma média do escore total do NAS de 68,1% (51,5% e 108,3%), correspondendo à porcentagem de tempo gasto pelo profissional de enfermagem na assistência direta ao paciente nas 24 horas. Houve correlação estatística entre NAS e desfecho clínico (p= 0,001). Já entre NAS e tempo de internação (p= 0,073) e NAS e idade (p=0,952), não houve significância estatística. CONCLUSÃO: Os resultados mostraram que os pacientes apresentaram elevada necessidade de cuidados, refletida pela média elevada do NAS.

Tradução e validação da escala Knee Society Score: KSS para a Língua Portuguesa

OBJETIVO: Traduzir, adaptar culturalmente e validar o "Knee Society Score" (KSS) para a língua portuguesa e verificar suas propriedades de medida, reprodutibilidade e validade. MÉTODO: Avaliados 70 pacientes de ambos os sexos, em estudo clínico transversal, idade entre 55 e 85 anos, osteoartrose primária submetidos a artroplastia total de joelho, com o questionário KSS pelo avaliador 1 (inglês) e após 30 minutos pelo avaliador 2 (português) no pré- operatório e após três e seis meses de pós-operatório. RESULTADOS: O índice alfa de Cronbach e a diagramação de Bland-Altman não detectaram diferença entre as médias das duas avaliações no pré-operatório (p=1,000), com três meses (p=0,991) e seis meses de pós-operatório (p=0,985) na pontuação do joelho e na nota da função do joelho, p=1,000 nos três períodos. CONCLUSÃO: A versão brasileira do Knee Society Score, o Escore da Sociedade do Joelho, mostrou ser um instrumento de fácil compreensão e aplicação; válido e confiável para medir a pontuação e função do joelho de pacientes brasileiros submetidos a ATJ. Nível de Evidências: Estudos diagnósticos - Nivel de Evidência I, Teste de critérios diagnósticos desenvolvidos anteriormente em pacientes consecutivos (com padrão de referência "ouro" aplicado).

Frequency of human platelet antigens in oncohematological patients with thrombocytopenia and the probability of incompatibility to platelet transfusions

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the frequencies of human platelet antigens in oncohematological patients with thrombocytopenia and to analyze the probability of their incompatibility with platelet transfusions. METHODS: Platelet antigen genotyping was performed by sequence-specific primer polymerase chain reaction (SSP-PCR) for the HPA-1a, HPA-1b, HPA-2a, HPA-2b, HPA-3a, HPA-3b, HPA-4a, HPA-4b, HPA-5a, HPA-5b; HPA-15a, HPA-15b alleles in 150 patients of the Hematology Service of the Hospital das Clínicas (FMUSP). RESULTS: The allele frequencies found were: HPA-1a: 0.837; HPA-1b: 0.163; HPA-2a: 0.830; HPA-2b: 0.170; HPA-3a: 0.700; HPA-3b: 0.300; HPA-4a: 1; HPA-4b: 0; HPA-5a: 0.887; HPA-5b: 0.113; HPA-15a: 0.457 and HPA-15b: 0.543. CONCLUSIONS: Data from the present study showed that the A allele is more common in the population than the B allele, except for HPA-15. This suggests that patients homozygous for the B allele are more predisposed to present alloimmunization and refractoriness to platelet transfusions by immune causes. Platelet genotyping could be of great value in the diagnosis of alloimmune thrombocytopenia and to provide compatible platelet concentrates for these patients.

Liver transplant outcome: a comparison between high and low MELD score recipients

OBJECTIVE: To compare low and high MELD scores and investigate whether existing renal dysfunction has an effect on transplant outcome. METHODS: Data was prospectively collected among 237 liver transplants (216 patients) between March 2003 and March 2009. Patients with cirrhotic disease submitted to transplantation were divided into three groups: MELD > 30, MELD < 30, and hepatocellular carcinoma. Renal failure was defined as a ± 25% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate as observed 1 week after the transplant. Median MELD scores were 35, 21, and 13 for groups MELD > 30, MELD < 30, and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively. RESULTS: Recipients with MELD > 30 had more days in Intensive Care Unit, longer hospital stay, and received more blood product transfusions. Moreover, their renal function improved after liver transplant. All other groups presented with impairment of renal function. Mortality was similar in all groups, but renal function was the most important variable associated with morbidity and length of hospital stay. CONCLUSION: High MELD score recipients had an improvement in the glomerular filtration rate after 1 week of liver transplantation.