A recommendation system for predicting risks across multiple business process instances

This paper proposes a recommendation system that supports process participants in taking risk-informed decisions, with the goal of reducing risks that may arise during process execution. Risk reduction involves decreasing the likelihood and severity of a process fault from occurring. Given a business process exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process exposed to a risk of reputation loss, we enact this process and whenever a process participant needs to provide input to the process, e.g. by selecting the next task to execute or by filling out a form, we suggest to the participant the action to perform which minimizes the predicted process risk. Risks are predicted by traversing decision trees generated from the logs of past process executions, which consider process data, involved resources, task durations and other information elements like task frequencies. When applied in the context of multiple process instances running concurrently, a second technique is employed that uses integer linear programming to compute the optimal assignment of resources to tasks to be performed, in order to deal with the interplay between risks relative to different instances. The recommendation system has been implemented as a set of components on top of the YAWL BPM system and its effectiveness has been evaluated using a real-life scenario, in collaboration with risk analysts of a large insurance company. The results, based on a simulation of the real-life scenario and its comparison with the event data provided by the company, show that the process instances executed concurrently complete with significantly fewer faults and with lower fault severities, when the recommendations provided by our recommendation system are taken into account.

Interactive processes link the multiple symptoms of fatigue in sport competition

Muscle physiologists often describe fatigue simply as a decline of muscle force and infer this causes an athlete to slow down. In contrast, exercise scientists describe fatigue during sport competition more holistically as an exercise-induced impairment of performance. The aim of this review is to reconcile the different views by evaluating the many performance symptoms/measures and mechanisms of fatigue. We describe how fatigue is assessed with muscle, exercise or competition performance measures. Muscle performance (single muscle test measures) declines due to peripheral fatigue (reduced muscle cell force) and/or central fatigue (reduced motor drive from the CNS). Peak muscle force seldom falls by >30% during sport but is often exacerbated during electrical stimulation and laboratory exercise tasks. Exercise performance (whole-body exercise test measures) reveals impaired physical/technical abilities and subjective fatigue sensations. Exercise intensity is initially sustained by recruitment of new motor units and help from synergistic muscles before it declines. Technique/motor skill execution deviates as exercise proceeds to maintain outcomes before they deteriorate, e.g. reduced accuracy or velocity. The sensation of fatigue incorporates an elevated rating of perceived exertion (RPE) during submaximal tasks, due to a combination of peripheral and higher CNS inputs. Competition performance (sport symptoms) is affected more by decision-making and psychological aspects, since there are opponents and a greater importance on the result. Laboratory based decision making is generally faster or unimpaired. Motivation, self-efficacy and anxiety can change during exercise to modify RPE and, hence, alter physical performance. Symptoms of fatigue during racing, team-game or racquet sports are largely anecdotal, but sometimes assessed with time-motion analysis. Fatigue during brief all-out racing is described biomechanically as a decline of peak velocity, along with altered kinematic components. Longer sport events involve pacing strategies, central and peripheral fatigue contributions and elevated RPE. During match play, the work rate can decline late in a match (or tournament) and/or transiently after intense exercise bursts. Repeated sprint ability, agility and leg strength become slightly impaired. Technique outcomes, such as velocity and accuracy for throwing, passing, hitting and kicking, can deteriorate. Physical and subjective changes are both less severe in real rather than simulated sport activities. Little objective evidence exists to support exercise-induced mental lapses during sport. A model depicting mind-body interactions during sport competition shows that the RPE centre-motor cortex-working muscle sequence drives overall performance levels and, hence, fatigue symptoms. The sporting outputs from this sequence can be modulated by interactions with muscle afferent and circulatory feedback, psychological and decision-making inputs. Importantly, compensatory processes exist at many levels to protect against performance decrements. Small changes of putative fatigue factors can also be protective. We show that individual fatigue factors including diminished carbohydrate availability, elevated serotonin, hypoxia, acidosis, hyperkalaemia, hyperthermia, dehydration and reactive oxygen species, each contribute to several fatigue symptoms. Thus, multiple symptoms of fatigue can occur simultaneously and the underlying mechanisms overlap and interact. Based on this understanding, we reinforce the proposal that fatigue is best described globally as an exercise-induced decline of performance as this is inclusive of all viewpoints.

Piecing together an integrative taxonomic puzzle: microsatellite, wing shape and aedeagus length analyses of Bactrocera dorsalis s.l. (Diptera: Tephritidae) find no evidence of multiple lineages in a proposed contact zone along the Thai/Malay Peninsula

Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) and B. papayae Drew & Hancock represent a closely related sibling species pair for which the biological species limits are unclear; i.e., it is uncertain if they are truely two biological species, or one biological species which has been incorrectly taxonomically split. The geographic ranges of the two taxa are thought to abut or overlap on or around the Isthmus of Kra, a recognised biogeographic barrier located on the narrowest portion of the Thai Peninsula. We collected fresh material of B. dorsalis sensu lato (i.e., B. dorsalis sensu stricto + B. papayae) in a north-south transect down the Thai Peninsula, from areas regarded as being exclusively B. dorsalis s.s., across the Kra Isthmus, and into regions regarded as exclusively B. papayae. We carried out microsatellite analyses and took measurements of male genitalia and wing shape. Both the latter morphological tests have been used previously to separate these two taxa. No significant population structuring was found in the microsatellite analysis and results were consistent with an interpretation of one, predominantly panmictic population. Both morphological datasets showed consistent, clinal variation along the transect, with no evidence for disjunction. No evidence in any tests supported historical vicariance driven by the Isthmus of Kra, and none of the three datasets supported the current taxonomy of two species. Rather, within and across the area of range overlap or abutment between the two species, only continuous morphological and genetic variation was recorded. Recognition that morphological traits previously used to separate these taxa are continuous, and that there is no genetic evidence for population segregation in the region of suspected species overlap, is consistent with a growing body of literature that reports no evidence of biological differentiation between these taxa.

Pseudo-marginal algorithms with multiple CPUs

The emergence of pseudo-marginal algorithms has led to improved computational efficiency for dealing with complex Bayesian models with latent variables. Here an unbiased estimator of the likelihood replaces the true likelihood in order to produce a Bayesian algorithm that remains on the marginal space of the model parameter (with latent variables integrated out), with a target distribution that is still the correct posterior distribution. Very efficient proposal distributions can be developed on the marginal space relative to the joint space of model parameter and latent variables. Thus psuedo-marginal algorithms tend to have substantially better mixing properties. However, for pseudo-marginal approaches to perform well, the likelihood has to be estimated rather precisely. This can be difficult to achieve in complex applications. In this paper we propose to take advantage of multiple central processing units (CPUs), that are readily available on most standard desktop computers. Here the likelihood is estimated independently on the multiple CPUs, with the ultimate estimate of the likelihood being the average of the estimates obtained from the multiple CPUs. The estimate remains unbiased, but the variability is reduced. We compare and contrast two different technologies that allow the implementation of this idea, both of which require a negligible amount of extra programming effort. The superior performance of this idea over the standard approach is demonstrated on simulated data from a stochastic volatility model.

Investigation of the [−/A]8 and C1236T genetic variations within the human toll-like receptor 3 gene for association with multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a serious cause of neurological disability among young adults. The clinical course remains difficult to predict, and the pathogenesis of the disease is still modestly understood. Autoimmunity is thought to be a key aspect of the disease, with autoreactive T cells thought to mediate central nervous system (CNS) inflammation to some extent. Toll-like receptors are known to mediate cellular recognition of pathogens by way of patterns of molecular presentation. Toll-like receptor 3 is coded by the gene TLR3 and is recognized as an important factor in virus recognition and is known to be involved in the expression of neuroprotective mediators. We set out to investigate two variations within the TLR3 gene, an 8 bp insertion-deletion \[-/A](8) and a single base-pair variation C1236T, in subjects with MS and matched healthy controls to determine whether significant differences exist in these markers in an Australian population. We used capillary gel electrophoresis and TaqMan genotyping assay techniques to resolve genotypes for each marker, respectively. Our work found no significant difference between frequencies for TLR3 \[-/A](8) by genotype (chi(2)=1.03, p=0.60) or allele (chi(2)=1.09, p=0.30). Similarly, we found no evidence for the association of TLR3 C1236T by genotype (chi(2)=0.35, p=0.84) or allele frequency (chi(2)=0.31, p=0.58). This work reveals no evidence to suggest that these markers are associated with MS in the tested population. Although the role of TLR3 and the wider toll-like receptor family remain significant in neurological and CNS inflammatory disorders, our current work does not support a role for the two tested variants in this gene with regard to MS susceptibility.

An investigation of the C77G and C772T variations within the human protein tyrosine phosphatase receptor type C gene for association with multiple sclerosis in an Australian population

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a common cause of neurological disability in young adults. The disease generally manifests in early to middle adulthood and causes various neurological deficits. Autoreactive T lymphocytes and their associated antigens have long been presumed important features of MS pathogenesis. The Protein tyrosine phosphatase receptor type C gene (PTPRC) encodes the T-cell receptor CD45. Variations within PTPRC have been previously associated with diseases of autoimmune origin such as type 1 diabetes mellitus and Graves' disease. We set out to investigate two variants within the PTPRC gene, C77G and C772T in subjects with MS and matched healthy controls to determine whether significant differences exist in these markers in an Australian population. We employed high resolution melt analysis (HRM) and restriction length polymorphism (RFLP) techniques to determine genotypic and allelic frequencies. Our study found no significant difference between frequencies for PTPRC C77G by either genotype (Χ2 = 0.65, P = 0.72) or allele (Χ2 = 0.48, P = 0.49). Similarly, we did not find evidence to suggest an association between PTPRC C772T by genotype (Χ2 = 1.06, P = 0.59) or allele (Χ2 = 0.20, P = 0.66). Linkage disequilibrium (LD) analysis showed strong linkage disequilibrium between the two tested markers (D' = 0.9970, SD = 0.0385). This study reveals no evidence to suggest that these markers are associated with MS in the tested Australian Caucasian population. Although the PTPRC gene has a significant role in regulating CD4+ and CD8+ autoreactive T-cells, interferon-beta responsiveness, and potentially other important processes, our study does not support a role for the two tested variants of this gene in MS susceptibility in the Australian population.

Multiple iterations : mapping the trace

This paper explores the concept that individual dancers leave traces in a choreographer’s body of work and similarly, that dancers carry forward residue of embodied choreographies into other working processes. This presentation will be grounded in a study of the multiple iterations of a programme of solo works commissioned in 2008 from choreographers John Jasperse, Jodi Melnick, Liz Roche and Rosemary Butcher and danced by the author. This includes an exploration of the development by John Jasperse of themes from his solo into the pieces PURE (2008) and Truth, Revised Histories, Wishful Thinking and Flat Out Lies (2009); an adaptation of the solo Business of the Bloom by Jodi Melnick in 2008 and a further adaptation of Business of the Bloom by this author in 2012. It will map some of the developments that occurred through a number of further performances over five years of the solo Shared Material on Dying by Liz Roche and the working process of the (uncompleted) solo Episodes of Flight by Rosemary Butcher. The purpose is to reflect back on authorship in dance, an art form in which lineages of influence can often be clearly observed. Normally, once a choreographic work is created and performed, it is archived through video recording, notation and/or reviews. The dancer is no longer called upon to represent the dance piece within the archive and thus her/his lived presence and experiential perspective disappears. The author will draw on the different traces still inhabiting her body as pathways towards understanding how choreographic movement circulates beyond this moment of performance. This will include the interrogation of ownership of choreographic movement, as once it becomes integrated in the body of the dancer, who owns the dance? Furthermore, certain dancers, through their individual physical characteristics and moving identities, can deeply influence the formation of choreographic signatures, a proposition that challenges the sole authorship role of the choreographer in dance production. This paper will be delivered in a presentation format that will bleed into movement demonstrations alongside video footage of the works and auto-ethnographic accounts of dancing experience. A further source of knowledge will be drawn from extracts of interviews with other dancers including Sara Rudner, Rebecca Hilton and Catherine Bennett.

Understanding expectations with multiple controllers in an augmented reality videogame

Player experiences and expectations are connected. The presumptions players have about how they control their gameplay interactions may shape the way they play and perceive videogames. A successfully engaging player experience might rest on the way controllers meet players' expectations. We studied player interaction with novel controllers on the Sony PlayStation Wonderbook, an augmented reality (AR) gaming system. Our goal was to understand player expectations regarding game controllers in AR game design. Based on this preliminary study, we propose several interaction guidelines for hybrid input from both augmented reality and physical game controllers

Predicting white matter integrity from multiple common genetic variants

Several common genetic variants have recently been discovered that appear to influence white matter microstructure, as measured by diffusion tensor imaging (DTI). Each genetic variant explains only a small proportion of the variance in brain microstructure, so we set out to explore their combined effect on the white matter integrity of the corpus callosum. We measured six common candidate single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the COMT, NTRK1, BDNF, ErbB4, CLU, and HFE genes, and investigated their individual and aggregate effects on white matter structure in 395 healthy adult twins and siblings (age: 20-30 years). All subjects were scanned with 4-tesla 94-direction high angular resolution diffusion imaging. When combined using mixed-effects linear regression, a joint model based on five of the candidate SNPs (COMT, NTRK1, ErbB4, CLU, and HFE) explained ∼ 6% of the variance in the average fractional anisotropy (FA) of the corpus callosum. This predictive model had detectable effects on FA at 82% of the corpus callosum voxels, including the genu, body, and splenium. Predicting the brain's fiber microstructure from genotypes may ultimately help in early risk assessment, and eventually, in personalized treatment for neuropsychiatric disorders in which brain integrity and connectivity are affected.

Multiple sulfur isotope analyses support a magmatic model for the volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits of the Teutonic Bore volcanic complex, Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia

We report sensitive high mass resolution ion microprobe, stable isotopes (SHRIMP SI) multiple sulfur isotope analyses (32S, 33S, 34S) to constrain the sources of sulfur in three Archean VMS deposits—Teutonic Bore, Bentley, and Jaguar—from the Teutonic Bore volcanic complex of the Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia, together with sedimentary pyrites from associated black shales and interpillow pyrites. The pyrites from VMS mineralization are dominated by mantle sulfur but include a small amount of slightly negative mass-independent fractionation (MIF) anomalies, whereas sulfur from the pyrites in the sedimentary rocks has pronounced positive MIF, with ∆33S values that lie between 0.19 and 6.20‰ (with one outlier at −1.62‰). The wall rocks to the mineralization include sedimentary rocks that have contributed no detectable positive MIF sulfur to the VMS deposits, which is difficult to reconcile with the leaching model for the formation of these deposits. The sulfur isotope data are best explained by mixing between sulfur derived from a magmatic-hydrothermal fluid and seawater sulfur as represented by the interpillow pyrites. The massive sulfide lens pyrites have a weighted mean ∆33S value of −0.27 ± 0.05‰ (MSWD = 1.6) nearly identical with −0.31 ± 0.08‰ (MSWD = 2.4) for pyrites from the stringer zone, which requires mixing to have occurred below the sea floor. We employed a two-component mixing model to estimate the contribution of seawater sulfur to the total sulfur budget of the two Teutonic Bore volcanic complex VMS deposits. The results are 15 to 18% for both Teutonic Bore and Bentley, much higher than the 3% obtained by Jamieson et al. (2013) for the giant Kidd Creek deposit. Similar calculations, carried out for other Neoarchean VMS deposits give value between 2% and 30%, which are similar to modern hydrothermal VMS deposits. We suggest that multiple sulfur isotope analyses may be used to predict the size of Archean VMS deposits and to provide a vector to ore deposit but further studies are needed to test these suggestions.

Immunochip analysis identifies multiple susceptibility loci for systemic sclerosis

In this study, 1,833 systemic sclerosis (SSc) cases and 3,466 controls were genotyped with the Immunochip array. Classical alleles, amino acid residues, and SNPs across the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region were imputed and tested. These analyses resulted in a model composed of six polymorphic amino acid positions and seven SNPs that explained the observed significant associations in the region. In addition, a replication step comprising 4,017 SSc cases and 5,935 controls was carried out for several selected non-HLA variants, reaching a total of 5,850 cases and 9,401 controls of European ancestry. Following this strategy, we identified and validated three SSc risk loci, including DNASE1L3 at 3p14, the SCHIP1-IL12A locus at 3q25, and ATG5 at 6q21, as well as a suggested association of the TREH-DDX6 locus at 11q23. The associations of several previously reported SSc risk loci were validated and further refined, and the observed peak of association in PXK was related to DNASE1L3. Our study has increased the number of known genetic associations with SSc, provided further insight into the pleiotropic effects of shared autoimmune risk factors, and highlighted the power of dense mapping for detecting previously overlooked susceptibility loci.

Combining transcriptome assemblies from multiple de novo assemblers in the allo-tetraploid plant Nicotiana benthamiana

Background Nicotiana benthamiana is an allo-tetraploid plant, which can be challenging for de novo transcriptome assemblies due to homeologous and duplicated gene copies. Transcripts generated from such genes can be distinct yet highly similar in sequence, with markedly differing expression levels. This can lead to unassembled, partially assembled or mis-assembled contigs. Due to the different properties of de novo assemblers, no one assembler with any one given parameter space can re-assemble all possible transcripts from a transcriptome. Results In an effort to maximise the diversity and completeness of de novo assembled transcripts, we utilised four de novo transcriptome assemblers, TransAbyss, Trinity, SOAPdenovo-Trans, and Oases, using a range of k-mer sizes and different input RNA-seq read counts. We complemented the parameter space biologically by using RNA from 10 plant tissues. We then combined the output of all assemblies into a large super-set of sequences. Using a method from the EvidentialGene pipeline, the combined assembly was reduced from 9.9 million de novo assembled transcripts to about 235,000 of which about 50,000 were classified as primary. Metrics such as average bit-scores, feature response curves and the ability to distinguish paralogous or homeologous transcripts, indicated that the EvidentialGene processed assembly was of high quality. Of 35 RNA silencing gene transcripts, 34 were identified as assembled to full length, whereas in a previous assembly using only one assembler, 9 of these were partially assembled. Conclusions To achieve a high quality transcriptome, it is advantageous to implement and combine the output from as many different de novo assemblers as possible. We have in essence taking the ‘best’ output from each assembler while minimising sequence redundancy. We have also shown that simultaneous assessment of a variety of metrics, not just focused on contig length, is necessary to gauge the quality of assemblies.

Commentary: Chronic SSRI stimulation of astrocytic 5-HT2B receptors change multiple gene expressions/editings and metabolism of glutamate, glucose and glycogen: A potential paradigm shift

Working on the serotonin (5-hydroxytryptamine, 5-HT) 5-HT2B receptor since several years, we have read with high interest the review by Hertz et al. (2015). Previous studies from our group demonstrated that a direct injection in mouse raphe nucleus of the 5-HT2B agonist BW723C86 has the ability to increase extracellular levels of serotonin, which can be blocked by the selective 5-HT2B receptor antagonist RS127445 (Doly et al., 2008, 2009). We also reported that an acute injection of paroxetine 2 mg/kg in mice knocked out for the 5-HT2B receptor gene or in wild type mice injected with RS127445 (0.5 mg/kg) triggers a strong reduction in extracellular accumulation of 5-HT in hippocampus (Diaz et al., 2012). Following these observations, we showed that acute and chronic BW723C86 injection (3 mg/kg) can mimic the fluoxetine (3 mg/kg) and paroxetine (1 mg/kg) behavioral and biochemical antidepressant effects in mice (Diaz and Maroteaux, 2011; Diaz et al., 2012)...

Multiple instance dictionary learning for activity representation

This paper presents an effective feature representation method in the context of activity recognition. Efficient and effective feature representation plays a crucial role not only in activity recognition, but also in a wide range of applications such as motion analysis, tracking, 3D scene understanding etc. In the context of activity recognition, local features are increasingly popular for representing videos because of their simplicity and efficiency. While they achieve state-of-the-art performance with low computational requirements, their performance is still limited for real world applications due to a lack of contextual information and models not being tailored to specific activities. We propose a new activity representation framework to address the shortcomings of the popular, but simple bag-of-words approach. In our framework, first multiple instance SVM (mi-SVM) is used to identify positive features for each action category and the k-means algorithm is used to generate a codebook. Then locality-constrained linear coding is used to encode the features into the generated codebook, followed by spatio-temporal pyramid pooling to convey the spatio-temporal statistics. Finally, an SVM is used to classify the videos. Experiments carried out on two popular datasets with varying complexity demonstrate significant performance improvement over the base-line bag-of-feature method.