Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Cluster analysis of movement patterns in multiarticular actions: A tutorial

The present paper proposes a technical analysis method for extracting information about movement patterning in studies of motor control, based on a cluster analysis of movement kinematics. In a tutorial fashion, data from three different experiments are presented to exemplify and validate the technical method. When applied to three different basketball-shooting techniques, the method clearly distinguished between the different patterns. When applied to a cyclical wrist supination-pronation task, the cluster analysis provided the same results as an analysis using the conventional discrete relative phase measure. Finally, when analyzing throwing performance constrained by distance to target, the method grouped movement patterns together according to throwing distance. In conclusion, the proposed technical method provides a valuable tool to improve understanding of coordination and control in different movement models, including multiarticular actions.

Dynamics of multi-articular coordination in neurobiological systems

Although previous work in nonlinear dynamics on neurobiological coordination and control has provided valuable insights from studies of single joint movements in humans, researchers have shown increasing interest in coordination of multi-articular actions. Multi-articular movement models have provided valuable insights on neurobiological systems conceptualised as degenerate, adaptive complex systems satisfying the constraints of dynamic environments. In this paper, we overview empirical evidence illustrating the dynamics of adaptive movement behavior in a range of multi-articular actions including kicking, throwing, hitting and balancing. We model the emergence of creativity and the diversity of neurobiological action in the meta-stable region of self organising criticality. We examine the influence on multi-articular actions of decaying and emerging constraints in the context of skill acquisition. We demonstrate how, in this context, transitions between preferred movement patterns exemplify the search for and adaptation of attractor states within the perceptual motor workspace as a function of practice. We conclude by showing how empirical analyses of neurobiological coordination and control have been used to establish a nonlinear pedagogical framework for enhancing acquisition of multi-articular actions.

Adaptive and phase transition behavior in performance of discrete multi-articular actions by degenerate neurobiological systems

The identification of attractors is one of the key tasks in studies of neurobiological coordination from a dynamical systems perspective, with a considerable body of literature resulting from this task. However, with regards to typical movement models investigated, the overwhelming majority of actions studied previously belong to the class of continuous, rhythmical movements. In contrast, very few studies have investigated coordination of discrete movements, particularly multi-articular discrete movements. In the present study, we investigated phase transition behavior in a basketball throwing task where participants were instructed to shoot at the basket from different distances. Adopting the ubiquitous scaling paradigm, throwing distance was manipulated as a candidate control parameter. Using a cluster analysis approach, clear phase transitions between different movement patterns were observed in performance of only two of eight participants. The remaining participants used a single movement pattern and varied it according to throwing distance, thereby exhibiting hysteresis effects. Results suggested that, in movement models involving many biomechanical degrees of freedom in degenerate systems, greater movement variation across individuals is available for exploitation. This observation stands in contrast to movement variation typically observed in studies using more constrained bi-manual movement models. This degenerate system behavior provides new insights and poses fresh challenges to the dynamical systems theoretical approach, requiring further research beyond conventional movement models.

A constraints-led perspective to understanding skill acquisition and game play: A basis for integration of motor learning theory and physical education praxis?

Background: In order to design appropriate environments for performance and learning of movement skills, physical educators need a sound theoretical model of the learner and of processes of learning. In physical education, this type of modelling informs the organization of learning environments and effective and efficient use of practice time. An emerging theoretical framework in motor learning, relevant to physical education, advocates a constraints-led perspective for acquisition of movement skills and game play knowledge. This framework shows how physical educators could use task, performer and environmental constraints to channel acquisition of movement skills and decision making behaviours in learners. From this viewpoint, learners generate specific movement solutions to satisfy the unique combination of constraints imposed on them, a process which can be harnessed during physical education lessons. Purpose: In this paper the aim is to provide an overview of the motor learning approach emanating from the constraints-led perspective, and examine how it can substantiate a platform for a new pedagogical framework in physical education: nonlinear pedagogy. We aim to demonstrate that it is only through theoretically valid and objective empirical work of an applied nature that a conceptually sound nonlinear pedagogy model can continue to evolve and support research in physical education. We present some important implications for designing practices in games lessons, showing how a constraints-led perspective on motor learning could assist physical educators in understanding how to structure learning experiences for learners at different stages, with specific focus on understanding the design of games teaching programmes in physical education, using exemplars from Rugby Union and Cricket. Findings: Research evidence from recent studies examining movement models demonstrates that physical education teachers need a strong understanding of sport performance so that task constraints can be manipulated so that information-movement couplings are maintained in a learning environment that is representative of real performance situations. Physical educators should also understand that movement variability may not necessarily be detrimental to learning and could be an important phenomenon prior to the acquisition of a stable and functional movement pattern. We highlight how the nonlinear pedagogical approach is student-centred and empowers individuals to become active learners via a more hands-off approach to learning. Summary: A constraints-based perspective has the potential to provide physical educators with a framework for understanding how performer, task and environmental constraints shape each individual‟s physical education. Understanding the underlying neurobiological processes present in a constraints-led perspective to skill acquisition and game play can raise awareness of physical educators that teaching is a dynamic 'art' interwoven with the 'science' of motor learning theories.

Modelling water droplet movement on a leaf surface

The central aim for the research undertaken in this PhD thesis is the development of a model for simulating water droplet movement on a leaf surface and to compare the model behavior with experimental observations. A series of five papers has been presented to explain systematically the way in which this droplet modelling work has been realised. Knowing the path of the droplet on the leaf surface is important for understanding how a droplet of water, pesticide, or nutrient will be absorbed through the leaf surface. An important aspect of the research is the generation of a leaf surface representation that acts as the foundation of the droplet model. Initially a laser scanner is used to capture the surface characteristics for two types of leaves in the form of a large scattered data set. After the identification of the leaf surface boundary, a set of internal points is chosen over which a triangulation of the surface is constructed. We present a novel hybrid approach for leaf surface fitting on this triangulation that combines Clough-Tocher (CT) and radial basis function (RBF) methods to achieve a surface with a continuously turning normal. The accuracy of the hybrid technique is assessed using numerical experimentation. The hybrid CT-RBF method is shown to give good representations of Frangipani and Anthurium leaves. Such leaf models facilitate an understanding of plant development and permit the modelling of the interaction of plants with their environment. The motion of a droplet traversing this virtual leaf surface is affected by various forces including gravity, friction and resistance between the surface and the droplet. The innovation of our model is the use of thin-film theory in the context of droplet movement to determine the thickness of the droplet as it moves on the surface. Experimental verification shows that the droplet model captures reality quite well and produces realistic droplet motion on the leaf surface. Most importantly, we observed that the simulated droplet motion follows the contours of the surface and spreads as a thin film. In the future, the model may be applied to determine the path of a droplet of pesticide along a leaf surface before it falls from or comes to a standstill on the surface. It will also be used to study the paths of many droplets of water or pesticide moving and colliding on the surface.

Using accelerometer, high sample rate GPS and magnetometer data to develop a cattle movement and behaviour model

The study described in this paper developed a model of animal movement, which explicitly recognised each individual as the central unit of measure. The model was developed by learning from a real dataset that measured and calculated, for individual cows in a herd, their linear and angular positions and directional and angular speeds. Two learning algorithms were implemented: a Hidden Markov model (HMM) and a long-term prediction algorithm. It is shown that a HMM can be used to describe the animal's movement and state transition behaviour within several “stay” areas where cows remained for long periods. Model parameters were estimated for hidden behaviour states such as relocating, foraging and bedding. For cows’ movement between the “stay” areas a long-term prediction algorithm was implemented. By combining these two algorithms it was possible to develop a successful model, which achieved similar results to the animal behaviour data collected. This modelling methodology could easily be applied to interactions of other animal species.

A review of simulation models for railway systems

With the advances in computer hardware and software development techniques in the past 25 years, digital computer simulation of train movement and traction systems has been widely adopted as a standard computer-aided engineering tool [1] during the design and development stages of existing and new railway systems. Simulators of different approaches and scales are used extensively to investigate various kinds of system studies. Simulation is now proven to be the cheapest means to carry out performance predication and system behaviour characterisation. When computers were first used to study railway systems, they were mainly employed to perform repetitive but time-consuming computational tasks, such as matrix manipulations for power network solution and exhaustive searches for optimal braking trajectories. With only simple high-level programming languages available at the time, full advantage of the computing hardware could not be taken. Hence, structured simulations of the whole railway system were not very common. Most applications focused on isolated parts of the railway system. It is more appropriate to regard those applications as primarily mechanised calculations rather than simulations. However, a railway system consists of a number of subsystems, such as train movement, power supply and traction drives, which inevitably contains many complexities and diversities. These subsystems interact frequently with each other while the trains are moving; and they have their special features in different railway systems. To further complicate the simulation requirements, constraints like track geometry, speed restrictions and friction have to be considered, not to mention possible non-linearities and uncertainties in the system. In order to provide a comprehensive and accurate account of system behaviour through simulation, a large amount of data has to be organised systematically to ensure easy access and efficient representation; the interactions and relationships among the subsystems should be defined explicitly. These requirements call for sophisticated and effective simulation models for each component of the system. The software development techniques available nowadays allow the evolution of such simulation models. Not only can the applicability of the simulators be largely enhanced by advanced software design, maintainability and modularity for easy understanding and further development, and portability for various hardware platforms are also encouraged. The objective of this paper is to review the development of a number of approaches to simulation models. Attention is, in particular, given to models for train movement, power supply systems and traction drives. These models have been successfully used to enable various ‘what-if’ issues to be resolved effectively in a wide range of applications, such as speed profiles, energy consumption, run times etc.

Polarized fluid movement and not cell death, creates luminal spaces in adult prostate epithelium

There are two predominant theories for lumen formation in tissue morphogenesis: cavitation driven by cell death, and membrane separation driven by epithelial polarity. To define the mechanism of lumen formation in prostate acini, we examined both theories in several cell lines grown in three-dimensional (3D) Matrigel culture. Lumen formation occurred early in culture and preceded the expression of cell death markers for apoptosis (active caspase 3) and autophagy (LC-3). Active caspase 3 was expressed by very few cells and inhibition of apoptosis did not suppress lumen formation. Despite LC-3 expression in all cells within a spheroid, this was not associated with cell death. However, expression of a prostate-secretory protein coincided with lumen formation and subsequent disruption of polarized fluid movement led to significant inhibition of lumen formation. This work indicates that lumen formation is driven by the polarized movement of fluids and proteins in 3D prostate epithelial models and not by cavitation.

Incorporating spatial correlations into multispecies mean-field models

In biology, we frequently observe different species existing within the same environment. For example, there are many cell types in a tumour, or different animal species may occupy a given habitat. In modelling interactions between such species, we often make use of the mean field approximation, whereby spatial correlations between the locations of individuals are neglected. Whilst this approximation holds in certain situations, this is not always the case, and care must be taken to ensure the mean field approximation is only used in appropriate settings. In circumstances where the mean field approximation is unsuitable we need to include information on the spatial distributions of individuals, which is not a simple task. In this paper we provide a method that overcomes many of the failures of the mean field approximation for an on-lattice volume-excluding birth-death-movement process with multiple species. We explicitly take into account spatial information on the distribution of individuals by including partial differential equation descriptions of lattice site occupancy correlations. We demonstrate how to derive these equations for the multi-species case, and show results specific to a two-species problem. We compare averaged discrete results to both the mean field approximation and our improved method which incorporates spatial correlations. We note that the mean field approximation fails dramatically in some cases, predicting very different behaviour from that seen upon averaging multiple realisations of the discrete system. In contrast, our improved method provides excellent agreement with the averaged discrete behaviour in all cases, thus providing a more reliable modelling framework. Furthermore, our method is tractable as the resulting partial differential equations can be solved efficiently using standard numerical techniques.

Understanding the relationship between interfragmentary movement and callus growth in fracture healing: A novel computational approach

Introduction & Aims Optimising fracture treatments requires a sound understanding of relationships between stability, callus development and healing outcomes. This has been the goal of computational modelling, but discrepancies remain between simulations and experimental results. We compared healing patterns vs fixation stiffness between a novel computational callus growth model and corresponding experimental data. Hypothesis We hypothesised that callus growth is stimulated by diffusible signals, whose production is in turn regulated by mechanical conditions at the fracture site. We proposed that introducing this scheme into computational models would better replicate the observed tissue patterns and the inverse relationship between callus size and fixation stiffness. Method Finite element models of bone healing under stiff and flexible fixation were constructed, based on the parameters of a parallel rat femoral osteotomy study. An iterative procedure was implemented, to simulate the development of callus and its mechanical regulation. Tissue changes were regulated according to published mechano-biological criteria. Predictions of healing patterns were compared between standard models, with a pre-defined domain for callus development, and a novel approach, in which periosteal callus growth is driven by a diffusible signal. Production of this signal was driven by local mechanical conditions. Finally, each model’s predictions were compared to the corresponding histological data. Results Models in which healing progressed within a prescribed callus domain predicted that greater interfragmentary movements would displace early periosteal bone formation further from the fracture. This results from artificially large distortional strains predicted near the fracture edge. While experiments showed increased hard callus size under flexible fixation, this was not reflected in the standard models. Allowing the callus to grow from a thin soft tissue layer, in response to a mechanically stimulated diffusible signal, results in a callus shape and tissue distribution closer to those observed histologically. Importantly, the callus volume increased with increasing interfragmentary movement. Conclusions A novel method to incorporate callus growth into computational models of fracture healing allowed us to successfully capture the relationship between callus size and fixation stability observed in our rat experiments. This approach expands our toolkit for understanding the influence of different fixation strategies on healing outcomes.

Modelling the movement of interacting cell populations: A moment dynamics approach

Mathematical models describing the movement of multiple interacting subpopulations are relevant to many biological and ecological processes. Standard mean-field partial differential equation descriptions of these processes suffer from the limitation that they implicitly neglect to incorporate the impact of spatial correlations and clustering. To overcome this, we derive a moment dynamics description of a discrete stochastic process which describes the spreading of distinct interacting subpopulations. In particular, we motivate our model by mimicking the geometry of two typical cell biology experiments. Comparing the performance of the moment dynamics model with a traditional mean-field model confirms that the moment dynamics approach always outperforms the traditional mean-field approach. To provide more general insight we summarise the performance of the moment dynamics model and the traditional mean-field model over a wide range of parameter regimes. These results help distinguish between those situations where spatial correlation effects are sufficiently strong, such that a moment dynamics model is required, from other situations where spatial correlation effects are sufficiently weak, such that a traditional mean-field model is adequate.