Asset life prediction and maintenance decision-making using a non-linear non-Gaussian state space model

Estimating and predicting degradation processes of engineering assets is crucial for reducing the cost and insuring the productivity of enterprises. Assisted by modern condition monitoring (CM) technologies, most asset degradation processes can be revealed by various degradation indicators extracted from CM data. Maintenance strategies developed using these degradation indicators (i.e. condition-based maintenance) are more cost-effective, because unnecessary maintenance activities are avoided when an asset is still in a decent health state. A practical difficulty in condition-based maintenance (CBM) is that degradation indicators extracted from CM data can only partially reveal asset health states in most situations. Underestimating this uncertainty in relationships between degradation indicators and health states can cause excessive false alarms or failures without pre-alarms. The state space model provides an efficient approach to describe a degradation process using these indicators that can only partially reveal health states. However, existing state space models that describe asset degradation processes largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires that failures and inspections only happen at fixed intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which requires expert knowledge and often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This research proposes a Gamma-based state space model that does not have discrete time, discrete state, linear and Gaussian assumptions to model partially observable degradation processes. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate model parameters and asset remaining useful lives. In addition, this research also develops a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP) to model a degradation process that follows the Gamma-based state space model and is under various maintenance strategies. Optimal maintenance strategies are obtained by solving the POSMDP. Simulation studies through the MATLAB are performed; case studies using the data from an accelerated life test of a gearbox and a liquefied natural gas industry are also conducted. The results show that the proposed Monte Carlo-based EM algorithm can estimate model parameters accurately. The results also show that the proposed Gamma-based state space model have better fitness result than linear and Gaussian state space models when used to process monotonically increasing degradation data in the accelerated life test of a gear box. Furthermore, both simulation studies and case studies show that the prediction algorithm based on the Gamma-based state space model can identify the mean value and confidence interval of asset remaining useful lives accurately. In addition, the simulation study shows that the proposed maintenance strategy optimisation method based on the POSMDP is more flexible than that assumes a predetermined strategy structure and uses the renewal theory. Moreover, the simulation study also shows that the proposed maintenance optimisation method can obtain more cost-effective strategies than a recently published maintenance strategy optimisation method by optimising the next maintenance activity and the waiting time till the next maintenance activity simultaneously.

Prognosis of bearing failure based on health state estimation

This paper proposes a new prognosis model based on the technique for health state estimation of machines for accurate assessment of the remnant life. For the evaluation of health stages of machines, the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier was employed to obtain the probability of each health state. Two case studies involving bearing failures were used to validate the proposed model. Simulated bearing failure data and experimental data from an accelerated bearing test rig were used to train and test the model. The result obtained is very encouraging and shows that the proposed prognostic model produces promising results and has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction.

Defending the sanctity of life principle : a reply to John Keown

This article is a response to Professor Keown’s criticism of my paper “Finding a Way Through the Ethical and Legal Maze: Withdrawal of Medical Treatment and Euthanasia” (2005) 13 (3) Medical Law Review 357. The article takes up and responds to a number of criticisms raised by Keown in an attempt to further the debate concerning the moral and legal status of withdrawing life-sustaining measures, its distinction from euthanasia, and the implications of the lawfulness of withdrawal for the principle of the sanctity of life.

A comparative study of prognostic model for bearing failure

An effective prognostics program will provide ample lead time for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before catastrophic failures occur. This paper presents a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation technique. For comparative study of the proposed model with the proportional hazard model (PHM), experimental bearing failure data from an accelerated bearing test rig were used. The result shows that the proposed prognostic model based on health state probability estimation can provide a more accurate prediction capability than the commonly used PHM in bearing failure case study.

The Second Life of urban planning? Using neogeography tools for community engagement

The majority of the world’s citizens now live in cities. Although urban planning can thus be thought of as a field with significant ramifications on the human condition, many practitioners feel that it has reached the crossroads in thought leadership between traditional practice and a new, more participatory and open approach. Conventional ways to engage people in participatory planning exercises are limited in reach and scope. At the same time, socio-cultural trends and technology innovation offer opportunities to re-think the status quo in urban planning. Neogeography introduces tools and services that allow non-geographers to use advanced geographical information systems. Similarly, is there potential for the emergence of a neo-planning paradigm in which urban planning is carried out through active civic engagement aided by Web 2.0 and new media technologies thus redefining the role of practicing planners? This paper traces a number of evolving links between urban planning, neogeography and information and communication technology. Two significant trends – participation and visualisation – with direct implications for urban planning are discussed. Combining advanced participation and visualisation features, the popular virtual reality environment Second Life is then introduced as a test bed to explore a planning workshop and an integrated software event framework to assist narrative generation. We discuss an approach to harness and analyse narratives using virtual reality logging to make transparent how users understand and interpret proposed urban designs.

The impact of perceived stage of cancer on carers’ anxiety and depression during the patients’ final year of life

Objective: This paper explores the effects of perceived stage of cancer (PSOC) on carers' anxiety and depression during the patients' final year. Methods: A consecutive sample of patients and carers (N=98) were surveyed at regular intervals regarding PSOC, and anxiety and depression using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Means were compared by gender using the Mann-Whitney U-test. The chi-square was used to analyse categorical data. Agreement between carers' and patients' PSOC was estimated using kappa statistics. Correlations between carers' PSOC and their anxiety and depression were calculated using the Spearman's rank correlation. Results: Over time, an increasing proportion of carers reported that the cancer was advanced, culminating at 43% near death. Agreement regarding PSOC was fair (kappa=0.29-0.34) until near death (kappa=0.21). Carers' anxiety increased over the year; depression increased in the final 6 months. Females were more anxious (p=0.049, 6 months; p=0.009, 3 months) than males, and more depressed until 1 month to death. The proportion of carers reporting moderate-severe anxiety almost doubled over the year to 27%, with more females in this category at 6 months (p=0.05). Carers with moderate-severe depression increased from 6 to 15% over the year. Increased PSOC was weakly correlated with increased anxiety and depression. Conclusions: Carers' anxiety exceeded depression in severity during advanced cancer. Females generally experienced greater anxiety and depression. Carers were more realistic than patients regarding the ultimate outcome, which was reflected in their declining mental health, particularly near the end.

The relationship between clinical outcomes and quality of life for residents of aged care facilities

Objectives It is widely assumed improving care in residential facilities will improve quality of life (QoL), but little research has explored this relationship. The Clinical Care Indicators (CCI) Tool was developed to fill an existing gap in quality assessment within Australian residential aged care facilities and it was used to explore potential links between clinical outcomes and QoL. Design and Setting Clinical outcome and QoL data were collected within four residential facilities from the same aged care provider. Subjects Subjects were 82 residents of four facilities. Outcome Measures Clinical outcomes were measured using the CCI Tool and QoL data was obtained using the Australian WHOQOL‑100. Results Independent t‑test analyses were calculated to compare individual CCIs with each domain of the WHOQOL‑100, while Pearson’s product moment coefficients (r) were calculated between the total number of problem indicators and QoL scores. Significant results suggested poorer clinical outcomes adversely affected QoL. Social and spiritual QoL were particularly affected by clinical outcomes and poorer status in hydration, falls and depression were most strongly associated with lower QoL scores. Poorer clinical status as a whole was also significantly correlated with poorer QoL. Conclusions Hydration, falls and depression were most often associated with poorer resident QoL and as such appear to be key areas for clinical management in residential aged care. However, poor clinical outcomes overall also adversely affected QoL, which suggests maintaining optimum clinical status through high quality nursing care, would not only be important for resident health but also for enhancing general life quality.

Creating and sustaining a basis for life-long learning in tertiary dancer training

This paper acknowledges the influences that a generation Y population brings to dance training methodologies and examines this impact in a tertiary context. Over the last 4 years, Queensland University of Technology has been modifying their curriculum for new students transitioning from the private dance studio into the prevocational university environment. An intensive training program was designed to empower the student creating effective entry points for common understandings in the learning and teaching of dance techniques with improved and accelerated learning outcomes. This paper shares these philosophies and practices in training for life-long learning that prepare the young dancer for longevity in the industry.

Discovering, applying and integrating self-knowledge : a grounded theory study of learning in life coaching

Professional coaching is a rapidly expanding field with interdisciplinary roots and broad application. However, despite abundant prescriptive literature, research into the process of coaching, and especially life coaching, is minimal. Similarly, although learning is inherently recognised in the process of coaching, and coaching is increasingly being recognised as a means of enhancing teaching and learning, the process of learning in coaching is little understood, and learning theory makes up only a small part of the evidence-based coaching literature. In this grounded theory study of life coaches and their clients, the process of learning in life coaching across a range of coaching models is examined and explained. The findings demonstrate how learning in life coaching emerged as a process of discovering, applying and integrating self-knowledge, which culminated in the development of self. This process occurred through eight key coaching processes shared between coaches and clients and combined a multitude of learning theory.

Quality of life after total laparoscopic hysterectomy versus total abdominal hysterectomy for stage I endometrial cancer (LACE) : a randomised trial

Background: The two-stage Total Laparoscopic Hysterectomy (TLH) versus Total Abdominal Hysterectomy (TAH) for stage I endometrial cancer (LACE) randomised controlled trial was initiated in 2005. The primary objective of stage 1 was to assess whether TLH results in equivalent or improved QoL up to 6 months after surgery compared to TAH. The primary objective of stage 2 was to test the hypothesis that disease-free survival at 4.5 years is equivalent for TLH and TAH. Results addressing the primary objective of stage 1 of the LACE trial are presented here. Methods: The first 361 LACE participants (TAH n= 142, TLH n=190) were enrolled in the QoL substudy at 19 centres across Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong, and 332 completed the QoL analysis. Randomisation was performed centrally and independently from other study procedures via a computer generated, web-based system (providing concealment of the next assigned treatment) using stratified permuted blocks of 3 and 6, and assigned patients with histologically confirmed stage 1 endometrioid endometrial adenocarcinoma and ECOG performance status <2 to TLH or TAH stratified by histological grade and study centre. No blinding of patients or study personnel was attempted. QoL was measured at baseline, 1 and 4 weeks (early), and 3 and 6 months (late) after surgery using the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-General (FACT-G) questionnaire. The primary endpoint was the difference between the groups in QoL change from baseline at early and late time points (a 5% difference was considered clinically significant). Analysis was performed according to the intention-to-treat principle using generalized estimating equations on differences from baseline for the early and late QoL recovery. The LACE trial is registered with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00096408) and the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (CTRN12606000261516). Patients for both stages of the trial have now been recruited and are being followed up for disease-specific outcomes. Findings: The proportion of missing values at the 5%, 10% 15% and 20% differences in the FACT-G scale was 6% (12/190) in the TLH and 14% (20/142) in the TAH group. There were 8/332 conversions (2.4%, 7 of which were from TLH to TAH). In the early phase of recovery, patients undergoing TLH reported significantly greater improvement of QoL from baseline compared to TAH in all subscales except the emotional and social well-being subscales. Improvements in QoL up to 6 months post-surgery continued to favour TLH except for the emotional and social well-being of the FACT and the visual analogue scale of the EuroQoL five dimensions (EuroQoL-VAS). Length of operating time was significantly longer in the TLH group (138±43 mins), than in the TAH group at (109±34 mins; p=0.001). While the proportion of intraoperative adverse events was similar between the treatment groups (TAH 8/142, 5.6%; TLH 14/190, 7.4%; p=0.55), postoperatively, twice as many patients in the TAH group experienced adverse events of CTC grade 3+ than in the TLH group (33/142, 23.2% and 22/190, 11.6%, respectively; p=0.004). Postoperative serious adverse events occurred more frequently in patients who had a TAH (27/142, 19.0%) than a TLH (15/190, 7.9%) (p=0.002). Interpretation: QoL improvements from baseline during early and later phases of recovery, and the adverse event profile significantly favour TLH compared to TAH for patients treated for Stage I endometrial cancer.

An extended measure of work-life balance culture : development and confirmation of the measure

This paper extends the work of Thompson, Beauvais and Lyness (1999) to develop a more comprehensive measure of work-life balance culture. Thompson et al. developed a survey based on three sub-dimensions which examine work-family culture. We have extended this to incorporate extra dimensions, and to broaden the measure to encompass life aspects beyond the family. Two studies were conducted in order to test and refine the measure. Over 700 participants in the first study completed the survey, and the Confirmatory Factor Analysis results show that the extended measure is robust. Further, a second study with a sample of 629 participants confirmed the general measure, with slight adaptations. The results are discussed in relation to the use of the measure for work-life balance research.

Evidence of disagreement between patient-perceived change and conventional longitudinal evaluation of change in health-related quality of life among older adults

Objective: To identify agreement levels between conventional longitudinal evaluation of change (post–pre) and patient-perceived change (post–then test) in health-related quality of life. Design: A prospective cohort investigation with two assessment points (baseline and six-month follow-up) was implemented. Setting: Community rehabilitation setting. Subjects: Frail older adults accessing community-based rehabilitation services. Intervention: Nil as part of this investigation. Main measures: Conventional longitudinal change in health-related quality of life was considered the difference between standard EQ-5D assessments completed at baseline and follow-up. To evaluate patient-perceived change a ‘then test’ was also completed at the follow-up assessment. This required participants to report (from their current perspective) how they believe their health-related quality of life was at baseline (using the EQ-5D). Patient-perceived change was considered the difference between ‘then test’ and standard follow-up EQ-5D assessments. Results: The mean (SD) age of participants was 78.8 (7.3). Of the 70 participants 62 (89%) of data sets were complete and included in analysis. Agreement between conventional (post–pre) and patient-perceived (post–then test) change was low to moderate (EQ-5D utility intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC)¼0.41, EQ-5D visual analogue scale (VAS) ICC¼0.21). Neither approach inferred greater change than the other (utility P¼0.925, VAS P¼0.506). Mean (95% confidence interval (CI)) conventional change in EQ-5D utility and VAS were 0.140 (0.045,0.236) and 8.8 (3.3,14.3) respectively, while patient-perceived change was 0.147 (0.055,0.238) and 6.4 (1.7,11.1) respectively. Conclusions: Substantial disagreement exists between conventional longitudinal evaluation of change in health-related quality of life and patient-perceived change in health-related quality of life (as measured using a then test) within individuals.

Latent degradation indicators estimation and prediction : a Monte Carlo approach

Asset health inspections can produce two types of indicators: (1) direct indicators (e.g. the thickness of a brake pad, and the crack depth on a gear) which directly relate to a failure mechanism; and (2) indirect indicators (e.g. the indicators extracted from vibration signals and oil analysis data) which can only partially reveal a failure mechanism. While direct indicators enable more precise references to asset health condition, they are often more difficult to obtain than indirect indicators. The state space model provides an efficient approach to estimating direct indicators by using indirect indicators. However, existing state space models to estimate direct indicators largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires fixed inspection intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This paper proposes a state space model without these assumptions. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate the model parameters and the remaining useful life. These algorithms are evaluated for performance using numerical simulations through MATLAB. The result shows that both the parameters and the remaining useful life are estimated accurately. Finally, the new state space model is used to process vibration and crack depth data from an accelerated test of a gearbox. During this application, the new state space model shows a better fitness result than the state space model with linear and Gaussian assumption.