Modeling electricity price events as point processes

Energy prices are highly volatile and often feature unexpected spikes. It is the aim of this paper to examine whether the occurrence of these extreme price events displays any regularities that can be captured using an econometric model. Here we treat these price events as point processes and apply Hawkes and Poisson autoregressive models to model the dynamics in the intensity of this process.We use load and meteorological information to model the time variation in the intensity of the process. The models are applied to data from the Australian wholesale electricity market, and a forecasting exercise illustrates both the usefulness of these models and their limitations when attempting to forecast the occurrence of extreme price events.

Visualization of predictive distributions for discrete spatial-temporal log Cox processes approximated with MCMC

An important aspect of decision support systems involves applying sophisticated and flexible statistical models to real datasets and communicating these results to decision makers in interpretable ways. An important class of problem is the modelling of incidence such as fire, disease etc. Models of incidence known as point processes or Cox processes are particularly challenging as they are ‘doubly stochastic’ i.e. obtaining the probability mass function of incidents requires two integrals to be evaluated. Existing approaches to the problem either use simple models that obtain predictions using plug-in point estimates and do not distinguish between Cox processes and density estimation but do use sophisticated 3D visualization for interpretation. Alternatively other work employs sophisticated non-parametric Bayesian Cox process models, but do not use visualization to render interpretable complex spatial temporal forecasts. The contribution here is to fill this gap by inferring predictive distributions of Gaussian-log Cox processes and rendering them using state of the art 3D visualization techniques. This requires performing inference on an approximation of the model on a discretized grid of large scale and adapting an existing spatial-diurnal kernel to the log Gaussian Cox process context.

Phenotyping cotton ovule fibre initiation with spatial statistics

Yield in cultivated cotton (Gossypium spp.) is affected by the number and distribution of fibres initiated on the seed surface but, apart from simple statistical summaries, little has been done to assess this phenotype quantitatively. Here we use two types of spatial statistics to describe and quantify differences in patterning of cotton ovule fibre initials (FI). The following five different species of Gossypium were analysed: G. hirsutum L., G. barbadense L., G. arboreum, G. raimondii Ulbrich. and G. trilobum (DC.) Skovsted. Scanning electron micrographs of FIs were taken on the day of anthesis. Cell centres for fibre and epidermal cells were digitised and analysed by spatial statistics methods appropriate for marked point processes and tessellations. Results were consistent with previously published reports of fibre number and spacing. However, it was shown that the spatial distributions of FIs in all of species examined exhibit regularity, and are not completely random as previously implied. The regular arrangement indicates FIs do not appear independently of each other and we surmise there may be some form of mutual inhibition specifying fibre-initial development. It is concluded that genetic control of FIs differs from that of stomata, another well studied plant idioblast. Since spatial statistics show clear species differences in the distribution of FIs within this genus, they provide a useful method for phenotyping cotton. © CSIRO 2007.

Volatility transmission in global financial markets

As financial markets have become increasingly integrated internationally, the topic of volatility transmission across these markets has become more important. This thesis investigates how the volatility patterns of the world's main financial centres differ across foreign exchange, equity, and bond markets.

Unstructured strategic decision-making processes : CRE decision-making in the Italian consulting industry

This thesis aims at developing a better understanding of unstructured strategic decision making processes and the conditions for achieving successful decision outcomes. Specifically it focuses on the processes used to make CRE (Corporate Real Estate) decisions. The starting point for this thesis is that our knowledge of such processes is incomplete. A comprehensive study of the most recent CRE literature together with Behavioural Organization Theory has provided a research framework for the exploration of CRE recommended =best practice‘, and of how organizational variables impact on and shape these practices. To reveal the fundamental differences between CRE decision-making in practice and the prescriptive =best practice‘ advocated in the CRE literature, a study of seven Italian management consulting firms was undertaken addressing the aspects of content and process of decisions. This thesis makes its primary contribution by identifying the importance and difficulty of finding the right balance between problem complexity, process richness and cohesion to ensure a decision-making process that is sufficiently rich and yet quick enough to deliver a prompt outcome. While doing so, this research also provides more empirical evidence to some of the most established theories of decision-making while reinterpreting their mono-dimensional arguments in a multi-dimensional model of successful decision-making.

Similarity metrics within a point of view

In vector space based approaches to natural language processing, similarity is commonly measured by taking the angle between two vectors representing words or documents in a semantic space. This is natural from a mathematical point of view, as the angle between unit vectors is, up to constant scaling, the only unitarily invariant metric on the unit sphere. However, similarity judgement tasks reveal that human subjects fail to produce data which satisfies the symmetry and triangle inequality requirements for a metric space. A possible conclusion, reached in particular by Tversky et al., is that some of the most basic assumptions of geometric models are unwarranted in the case of psychological similarity, a result which would impose strong limits on the validity and applicability vector space based (and hence also quantum inspired) approaches to the modelling of cognitive processes. This paper proposes a resolution to this fundamental criticism of of the applicability of vector space models of cognition. We argue that pairs of words imply a context which in turn induces a point of view, allowing a subject to estimate semantic similarity. Context is here introduced as a point of view vector (POVV) and the expected similarity is derived as a measure over the POVV's. Different pairs of words will invoke different contexts and different POVV's. Hence the triangle inequality ceases to be a valid constraint on the angles. We test the proposal on a few triples of words and outline further research.

An approximate Bayesian computation approach for estimating parameters of complex environmental processes in a cellular automata

Modelling an environmental process involves creating a model structure and parameterising the model with appropriate values to accurately represent the process. Determining accurate parameter values for environmental systems can be challenging. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically make assumptions regarding the form of the Likelihood, and will often ignore any uncertainty around estimated values. This can be problematic, however, particularly in complex problems where Likelihoods may be intractable. In this paper we demonstrate an Approximate Bayesian Computational method for the estimation of parameters of a stochastic CA. We use as an example a CA constructed to simulate a range expansion such as might occur after a biological invasion, making parameter estimates using only count data such as could be gathered from field observations. We demonstrate ABC is a highly useful method for parameter estimation, with accurate estimates of parameters that are important for the management of invasive species such as the intrinsic rate of increase and the point in a landscape where a species has invaded. We also show that the method is capable of estimating the probability of long distance dispersal, a characteristic of biological invasions that is very influential in determining spread rates but has until now proved difficult to estimate accurately.

Wind-energy based path planning for electric unmanned aerial vehicles using Markov Decision Processes

Exploiting wind-energy is one possible way to ex- tend flight duration for Unmanned Arial Vehicles. Wind-energy can also be used to minimise energy consumption for a planned path. In this paper, we consider uncertain time-varying wind fields and plan a path through them. A Gaussian distribution is used to determine uncertainty in the Time-varying wind fields. We use Markov Decision Process to plan a path based upon the uncertainty of Gaussian distribution. Simulation results that compare the direct line of flight between start and target point and our planned path for energy consumption and time of travel are presented. The result is a robust path using the most visited cell while sampling the Gaussian distribution of the wind field in each cell.

Knowledge-Intensive Business Processes: Proceedings of the 1st International Workshop on Knowledge-intensive Business Processes [CEUR Workshop Proceedings, Volume 861]

Nowadays, Workflow Management Systems (WfMSs) and, more generally, Process Management Systems (PMPs) are process-aware Information Systems (PAISs), are widely used to support many human organizational activities, ranging from well-understood, relatively stable and structures processes (supply chain management, postal delivery tracking, etc.) to processes that are more complicated, less structured and may exhibit a high degree of variation (health-care, emergency management, etc.). Every aspect of a business process involves a certain amount of knowledge which may be complex depending on the domain of interest. The adequate representation of this knowledge is determined by the modeling language used. Some processes behave in a way that is well understood, predictable and repeatable: the tasks are clearly delineated and the control flow is straightforward. Recent discussions, however, illustrate the increasing demand for solutions for knowledge-intensive processes, where these characteristics are less applicable. The actors involved in the conduct of a knowledge-intensive process have to deal with a high degree of uncertainty. Tasks may be hard to perform and the order in which they need to be performed may be highly variable. Modeling knowledge-intensive processes can be complex as it may be hard to capture at design-time what knowledge is available at run-time. In realistic environments, for example, actors lack important knowledge at execution time or this knowledge can become obsolete as the process progresses. Even if each actor (at some point) has perfect knowledge of the world, it may not be certain of its beliefs at later points in time, since tasks by other actors may change the world without those changes being perceived. Typically, a knowledge-intensive process cannot be adequately modeled by classical, state of the art process/workflow modeling approaches. In some respect there is a lack of maturity when it comes to capturing the semantic aspects involved, both in terms of reasoning about them. The main focus of the 1st International Workshop on Knowledge-intensive Business processes (KiBP 2012) was investigating how techniques from different fields, such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Knowledge Representation (KR), Business Process Management (BPM), Service Oriented Computing (SOC), etc., can be combined with the aim of improving the modeling and the enactment phases of a knowledge-intensive process. The 1st International Workshop on Knowledge-intensive Business process (KiBP 2012) was held as part of the program of the 2012 Knowledge Representation & Reasoning International Conference (KR 2012) in Rome, Italy, in June 2012. The workshop was hosted by the Dipartimento di Ingegneria Informatica, Automatica e Gestionale Antonio Ruberti of Sapienza Universita di Roma, with financial support of the University, through grant 2010-C26A107CN9 TESTMED, and the EU Commission through the projects FP7-25888 Greener Buildings and FP7-257899 Smart Vortex. This volume contains the 5 papers accepted and presented at the workshop. Each paper was reviewed by three members of the internationally renowned Program Committee. In addition, a further paper was invted for inclusion in the workshop proceedings and for presentation at the workshop. There were two keynote talks, one by Marlon Dumas (Institute of Computer Science, University of Tartu, Estonia) on "Integrated Data and Process Management: Finally?" and the other by Yves Lesperance (Department of Computer Science and Engineering, York University, Canada) on "A Logic-Based Approach to Business Processes Customization" completed the scientific program. We would like to thank all the Program Committee members for the valuable work in selecting the papers, Andrea Marrella for his valuable work as publication and publicity chair of the workshop, and Carola Aiello and the consulting agency Consulta Umbria for the organization of this successful event.

Wind-energy based path planning for unmanned aerial vehicles using Markov decision processes

Exploiting wind-energy is one possible way to extend flight duration for Unmanned Arial Vehicles. Wind-energy can also be used to minimise energy consumption for a planned path. In this paper, we consider uncertain time-varying wind fields and plan a path through them. A Gaussian distribution is used to determine uncertainty in the Time-varying wind fields. We use Markov Decision Process to plan a path based upon the uncertainty of Gaussian distribution. Simulation results that compare the direct line of flight between start and target point and our planned path for energy consumption and time of travel are presented. The result is a robust path using the most visited cell while sampling the Gaussian distribution of the wind field in each cell.

Engagement, persistence, progress and success as theoretically distinct aspects of business creation processes

Starting from the vantage point that explaining success at creating a venture should be the unique contribution—or at least one unique contribution—of entrepreneurship research, we argue that this success construct has not yet been adequately defined an operationalized. We thus offer suggestions for more precise conceptualization and measurement of this central construct. Rather than regarding various success proxies used in prior research as poor operationalizations of success we argue that they represent other important aspects of the venture creation process: engagement, persistence and progress. We hold that in order to attain a better understanding of venture creation these constructs also need to be theoretically defined. Further, their respective drivers need to be theorized and tested separately. We suggest theoretical definitions of each. We then develop and test hypotheses concerning how human capital, venture idea novelty and business planning has different impact on the different assessments of the process represented by engagement, persistence, progress and success. The results largely confirm the stated hypotheses, suggesting that the conceptual and empirical approach we are suggesting is a path towards improved understanding of the central entrepreneurship phenomenon of new venture creation.

Structure analysis on the nanoscale : closed WS2 nanoboxes through a cascade of topo- and epitactic processes

Closed WS2 nanoboxes were formed by topotactic sulfidization of a WO3/WO3 center dot 1/3H(2)O intergrowth precursor. Automated diffraction tomography was used to elucidate the growth mechanism of these unconventional hollow structures. By partial conversion and structural analysis of the products, each of them representing a snapshot of the reaction at a given point in time, the overall reaction can be broken down into a cascade of individual steps and each of them identified with a basic mechanism. During the initial step of sulfidization WO3 center dot 1/3H(2)O transforms into hexagonal WO3 whose surface allows for the epitaxial induction of WS2. The initially formed platelets of WS2 exhibit a preferred orientation with respect to the nanorod surface. In the final step individual layers of WS2 coalesce to form closed shells. In essence, a cascade of several topotactic reactions leads to epitactic induction and formation of closed rectangular hollow boxes made up from hexagonal layers.

Importance of knowledge management processes in a project-based organization : a case study of research enterprise

Knowledge Management (KM) is vital factor to successfully undertake projects. The temporary nature of projects necessitates employing useful KM practices for tackling issues such as knowledge leakiness and rework. The Project Management Office (PMO) is a unit within organizations to facilitate and oversee organizational projects. Project Management Maturity Models (PMMM) shows the development of PMOs from immature to mature levels. The existing PMMMs have focused on discussing Project Management (PM) practices, however, the management of project knowledge is yet to be addressed, at various levels of maturity. This research project was undertaken to investigate the mentioned gap for addressing KM practices at the existing PMMMs. Due to the exploratory and inductive nature of this research, qualitative methods were chosen as the research methodology. In total, three cases selected from different industries: research; mining and government organizations, to provide broad categories for research and research questions were examined using the developed framework. This paper presents the partial findings of undertaken investigation of the research organisation with the lowest level of maturity. The result shows that knowledge creation and capturing are the most important processes, while knowledge transferring and reusing are not as important as the other two processes. In addition, it was revealed that provision of “knowledge about client” and “project management knowledge” are the most important types of knowledge that are required at this level of maturity. In conclusion, the outcomes of this paper shall provide powerful guidance to PMOs at lowest level of maturity from KM point of view.

BP-XACML: An authorisation policy language for business processes

XACML has become the defacto standard for enterprise- wide, policy-based access control. It is a structured, extensible language that can express and enforce complex access control policies. There have been several efforts to extend XACML to support specific authorisation models, such as the OASIS RBAC profile to support Role Based Access Control. A number of proposals for authorisation models that support business processes and workflow systems have also appeared in the literature. However, there is no published work describing an extension to allow XACML to be used as a policy language with these models. This paper analyses the specific requirements of a policy language to express and enforce business process authorisation policies. It then introduces BP-XACML, a new profile that extends the RBAC profile for XACML so it can support business process authorisation policies. In particular, BP-XACML supports the notion of tasks, and constraints at the level of a task instance, which are important requirements in enforcing business process authorisation policies.

Optimal management of the critically Ill: Anaesthesia, monitoring, data capture, and point-of-care technological practices in ovine models of critical care

Animal models of critical illness are vital in biomedical research. They provide possibilities for the investigation of pathophysiological processes that may not otherwise be possible in humans. In order to be clinically applicable, the model should simulate the critical care situation realistically, including anaesthesia, monitoring, sampling, utilising appropriate personnel skill mix, and therapeutic interventions. There are limited data documenting the constitution of ideal technologically advanced large animal critical care practices and all the processes of the animal model. In this paper, we describe the procedure of animal preparation, anaesthesia induction and maintenance, physiologic monitoring, data capture, point-of-care technology, and animal aftercare that has been successfully used to study several novel ovine models of critical illness. The relevant investigations are on respiratory failure due to smoke inhalation, transfusion related acute lung injury, endotoxin-induced proteogenomic alterations, haemorrhagic shock, septic shock, brain death, cerebral microcirculation, and artificial heart studies. We have demonstrated the functionality of monitoring practices during anaesthesia required to provide a platform for undertaking systematic investigations in complex ovine models of critical illness.