Follow the leader if you can, hedge if you must

Follow-the-Leader (FTL) is an intuitive sequential prediction strategy that guarantees constant regret in the stochastic setting, but has poor performance for worst-case data. Other hedging strategies have better worst-case guarantees but may perform much worse than FTL if the data are not maximally adversarial. We introduce the FlipFlop algorithm, which is the first method that provably combines the best of both worlds. As a stepping stone for our analysis, we develop AdaHedge, which is a new way of dynamically tuning the learning rate in Hedge without using the doubling trick. AdaHedge refines a method by Cesa-Bianchi, Mansour, and Stoltz (2007), yielding improved worst-case guarantees. By interleaving AdaHedge and FTL, FlipFlop achieves regret within a constant factor of the FTL regret, without sacrificing AdaHedge’s worst-case guarantees. AdaHedge and FlipFlop do not need to know the range of the losses in advance; moreover, unlike earlier methods, both have the intuitive property that the issued weights are invariant under rescaling and translation of the losses. The losses are also allowed to be negative, in which case they may be interpreted as gains.

The role of periosteum : a neglected aspect of osteoporosis

Most current studies on the pathogenesis of osteoporosis emphasize the bone metabolic activities occurring on endosteal surfaces, whereas the periosteal aspect is somewhat neglected. In terms of bone physiology, periosteum plays a determining role in de novo cortical bone formation and cortical bone expansion through periosteum is the most efficient way of increasing bone strength against fractures. Despite the important role of periosteum in the pathogenesis and treatment of osteoporosis, little is known about the structural and cellular features of periosteum in osteoporosis. This chapter will focus on the major changes occurring in the periosteum of osteoporosis and possible implications of these changes in the pathogenesis of osteoporosis. The changes identified in the periosteum of osteoporosis are mainly located in the metaphyseal compartment, which include: (a) much thicker and more cellular cambial layer; (b) increased number of TRAP (tartrate resistant acid phosphatase), VEGF (vascular endothelial growth factor) cells and the degree of vascularization; and (c) enhanced expression of sympathetic nerve fibers. The structural and cellular changes of osteoporotic periosteum indicate that periosteum plays an important role in the cortical bone resorption in metaphyseal areas and this pathological process may be regulated by the sympathetic nervous system.

Freedom of information implications of information sharing networks for critical infrastructure protection

Protection of “critical infrastructure” has become a major issue for govern- ments worldwide. Yet in Australia, as in many other countries, including the United States, an estimated 90% of critical infrastructure is privately owned or operated commercially – in other words, critical infrastructure protection is not the exclusive domain of government. As a result, information sharing between government and the private sector has become a vitally important component of effective risk management. However, establishing effective arrangements of this kind between the public and private sector needs to take account of existing regimes of access and public disclosure which relate to government-held documents; in particular, that which is established by freedom of information (FOI) legislation. This article examines the extent to which the current Commonwealth FOI regime is likely to act as an impediment to the private sector operators of critical infrastructure participat- ing in government-operated information sharing arrangements. By examining developments in other jurisdictions, principally the United States, the article considers whether amendments to the current Australian FOI regime are necessary to ensure effective participation, consistent with the underlying object and purpose of FOI.

Structural and cellular features in metaphyseal and diaphyseal periosteum of osteoporotic rats

Despite the important physiological role of periosteum in the pathogenesis and treatment of osteoporosis, little is known about the structural and cellular characteristics of periosteum in osteoporosis. To study the structural and cellular differences in both diaphyseal and metaphyseal periosteum of osteoporotic rats, samples from the right femur of osteoporotic and normal female Lewis rats were collected and tissue sections were stained with hematoxylin and eosin, antibodies or staining kit against tartrate resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), von Willebrand (vWF), tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) and calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP). The results showed that the osteoporotic rats had much thicker and more cellular cambial layer of metaphyseal periosteum compared with other periosteal areas and normal rats (P\0.001). The number of TRAP? osteoclasts in bone resorption pits, VEGF? cells and the degree of vascularization were found to be greater in the cambial layer of metaphyseal periosteum of osteoporotic rats (P\0.05), while no significant difference was detected in the number of ALP? cells between the two groups. Sympathetic nerve fibers identified by TH staining were predominantly located in the cambial layer of metaphyseal periosteum of osteoporotic rats. No obvious difference in the expression of CGRP between the two groups was found. In conclusion, periosteum may play an important role in the cortical bone resorption in osteoporotic rats and this pathological process may be regulated by the sympathetic nervous system.

Physiological investigation of periosteum structure and its application in periosteum tissue engineering

Although many different materials, techniques and methods, including artificial or engineered bone substitutes, have been used to repair various bone defects, the restoration of critical-sized bone defects caused by trauma, surgery or congenital malformation is still a great challenge to orthopedic surgeons. One important fact that has been neglected in the pursuit of resolutions for large bone defect healing is that most physiological bone defect healing needs the periosteum and stripping off the periosteum may result in non-union or non-healed bone defects. Periosteum plays very important roles not only in bone development but also in bone defect healing. The purpose of this project was to construct a functional periosteum in vitro using a single stem cell source and then test its ability to aid the repair of critical-sized bone defect in animal models. This project was designed with three separate but closely-linked parts which in the end led to four independent papers. The first part of this study investigated the structural and cellular features in periostea from diaphyseal and metaphyseal bone surfaces in rats of different ages or with osteoporosis. Histological and immunohistological methods were used in this part of the study. Results revealed that the structure and cell populations in periosteum are both age-related and site-specific. The diaphyseal periosteum showed age-related degeneration, whereas the metaphyseal periosteum is more destructive in older aged rats. The periosteum from osteoporotic bones differs from normal bones both in terms of structure and cell populations. This is especially evident in the cambial layer of the metaphyseal area. Bone resorption appears to be more active in the periosteum from osteoporotic bones, whereas bone formation activity is comparable between the osteoporotic and normal bone. The dysregulation of bone resorption and formation in the periosteum may also be the effect of the interaction between various neural pathways and the cell populations residing within it. One of the most important aspects in periosteum engineering is how to introduce new blood vessels into the engineered periosteum to help form vascularized bone tissues in bone defect areas. The second part of this study was designed to investigate the possibility of differentiating bone marrow stromal cells (BMSCs) into the endothelial cells and using them to construct vascularized periosteum. The endothelial cell differentiation of BMSCs was induced in pro-angiogenic media under both normoxia and CoCl2 (hypoxia-mimicking agent)-induced hypoxia conditions. The VEGF/PEDF expression pattern, endothelial cell specific marker expression, in vitro and in vivo vascularization ability of BMSCs cultured in different situations were assessed. Results revealed that BMSCs most likely cannot be differentiated into endothelial cells through the application of pro-angiogenic growth factors or by culturing under CoCl2-induced hypoxic conditions. However, they may be involved in angiogenesis as regulators under both normoxia and hypoxia conditions. Two major angiogenesis-related growth factors, VEGF (pro-angiogenic) and PEDF (anti-angiogenic) were found to have altered their expressions in accordance with the extracellular environment. BMSCs treated with the hypoxia-mimicking agent CoCl2 expressed more VEGF and less PEDF and enhanced the vascularization of subcutaneous implants in vivo. Based on the findings of the second part, the CoCl2 pre-treated BMSCs were used to construct periosteum, and the in vivo vascularization and osteogenesis of the constructed periosteum were assessed in the third part of this project. The findings of the third part revealed that BMSCs pre-treated with CoCl2 could enhance both ectopic and orthotopic osteogenesis of BMSCs-derived osteoblasts and vascularization at the early osteogenic stage, and the endothelial cells (HUVECs), which were used as positive control, were only capable of promoting osteogenesis after four-weeks. The subcutaneous area of the mouse is most likely inappropriate for assessing new bone formation on collagen scaffolds. This study demonstrated the potential application of CoCl2 pre-treated BMSCs in the tissue engineering not only for periosteum but also bone or other vascularized tissues. In summary, the structure and cell populations in periosteum are age-related, site-specific and closely linked with bone health status. BMSCs as a stem cell source for periosteum engineering are not endothelial cell progenitors but regulators, and CoCl2-treated BMSCs expressed more VEGF and less PEDF. These CoCl2-treated BMSCs enhanced both vascularization and osteogenesis in constructed periosteum transplanted in vivo.

Principles of investments

"Emphasises asset allocation while presenting the practical applications of investment theory. The authors concentrate on the intuition and insights that will be useful to students throughout their careers as new ideas and challenges emerge from the financial marketplace. It provides a good foundation to understand the basic types of securities and financial markets as well as how trading in those markets is conducted. The Portfolio Management section is discussed towards the end of the course and supported by a web-based portfolio simulation with a hypothetical $100,000 brokerage account to buy and sell stocks and mutual funds. Students get a chance to use real data found in the Wall Street Survivor simulation in conjunction with the chapters on investments. This site is powered by StockTrak, the leading provider of investment simulation services to the academic community. Principles of Investments includes increased attention to changes in market structure and trading technology. The theory is supported by a wide range of exercises, worksheets and problems."--publisher website Contents: Investments: background and issues -- Asset classes and financial markets -- Securities markets -- Managed funds and investment management -- Risk and return: past and prologue -- Efficient diversification -- Capital asset pricing and arbitrage pricing theory -- The efficient market hypothesis -- Bond prices and yields -- Managing bond portfolios -- Equity valuation -- Macroeconomic and industry analysis -- Financial statement analysis -- Investors and the investment process -- Hedge funds -- Portfolio performance evaluation.

Cohabitation, marriage, and divorce in a model of match quality

The objective of this research is to further our understanding of how and why individuals enter and leave coresidential relationships. We develop and estimate an economic model of nonmarital cohabitation, marriage, and divorce that is consistent with current data on the formation and dissolution of relationships. Jovanovic's (Journal of Political Economy 87 (1979), 972-90) theoretical matching model is extended to help explain household formation and dissolution behavior. Implications of the model reveal what factors influence the decision to start a relationship, what form this relationship will take, and the relative stability of the various types of unions. The structural parameters of the model are estimated using longitudinal data from a sample of female high school seniors from the United States. New numerical methods are developed to reduce computational costs associated with estimation. The empirical results have interesting interpretations given the structural model. They show that a significant cause of cohabitation is the need to learn about potential partners and to hedge against future bad shocks. The estimated parameters are used to conduct several comparative dynamic experiments. For example, we show that policy experiments changing the cost of divorce have little effect on relationship choices.

Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies, food, and gold

This paper employs a VAR-GARCH model to investigate the return links and volatility transmission between the S&P 500 and commodity price indices for energy, food, gold and beverages over the turbulent period from 2000 to 2011. Understanding the price behavior of commodity prices and the volatility transmission mechanism between these markets and the stock exchanges are crucial for each participant, including governments, traders, portfolio managers, consumers, and producers. For return and volatility spillover, the results show significant transmission among the S&P 500 and commodity markets. The past shocks and volatility of the S&P 500 strongly influenced the oil and gold markets. This study finds that the highest conditional correlations are between the S&P 500 and gold index and the S&P 500 and WTI index. We also analyze the optimal weights and hedge ratios for commodities/S&P 500 portfolio holdings using the estimates for each index. Overall, our findings illustrate several important implications for portfolio hedgers for making optimal portfolio allocations, engaging in risk management and forecasting future volatility in equity and commodity markets. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Financial Reserves : A Necessary Condition for Not-for-Profit Sustainability?

Should not-for-profit (NFP) organisations hold reserves to hedge uncertainty and protect mission delivery? This chapter outlines the nature and contxt of NFP reserves. many would accept that actors within NFP organisations have a broad accountability to ensure sustinability where an appropriate mission exists, and that sustinability is assisted or ensured through the purposeful accumulation of reserves. This chapter examins current relevant literature on reserves, reviews various approaches to reserves accumulation across jurisdictions and reports what is known about practice. We highlight the tension faced by NFP organisations, balancing mission spending against the need to hedge uncertainty. We investigate the role of reserves, and how an appropriate level is determined to ensure a NFP board's accountability for organisational sustinability. This issue is particularly significant in the period following the global financial crisis, and while practitioner interest is evident, there has been little academic attention paid to the topic of NFP reserves, and 'very few [articles] have even forcused on related topics' (Calabrese, 2011, p. 282).

Open problem: Shifting experts on easy data

A number of online algorithms have been developed that have small additional loss (regret) compared to the best “shifting expert”. In this model, there is a set of experts and the comparator is the best partition of the trial sequence into a small number of segments, where the expert of smallest loss is chosen in each segment. The regret is typically defined for worst-case data / loss sequences. There has been a recent surge of interest in online algorithms that combine good worst-case guarantees with much improved performance on easy data. A practically relevant class of easy data is the case when the loss of each expert is iid and the best and second best experts have a gap between their mean loss. In the full information setting, the FlipFlop algorithm by De Rooij et al. (2014) combines the best of the iid optimal Follow-The-Leader (FL) and the worst-case-safe Hedge algorithms, whereas in the bandit information case SAO by Bubeck and Slivkins (2012) competes with the iid optimal UCB and the worst-case-safe EXP3. We ask the same question for the shifting expert problem. First, we ask what are the simple and efficient algorithms for the shifting experts problem when the loss sequence in each segment is iid with respect to a fixed but unknown distribution. Second, we ask how to efficiently unite the performance of such algorithms on easy data with worst-case robustness. A particular intriguing open problem is the case when the comparator shifts within a small subset of experts from a large set under the assumption that the losses in each segment are iid.

Recruiting/hiring of older workers

This chapter reviews five key components of the recruitment process with regard to an aging workforce. First, targeted recruitment entails that organizations understand the needs, preferences, and strengths of older workers. Second, the recruitment message should communicate job and organizational characteristics that are attractive to older jobseekers. Third, the recruitment source should be consistent with the mediayse and job-search behaviors of older jobseekers. Fourth, the characteristics and behaviors of recruiters play an essential role in the recruitment of older applicants. Finally, organizations need to convey an attractive image of themselves as employers for older workers. Throughout the chapter, best practices are contrasted with available research evidence, and directions for future research are outlined.

Leading Digital Transformation: Building Technology and Information Governance Capability in Boards of Directors and the C-Suite

Information and technology and its use in organisation transformation presents unprecedented opportunities and risks. Increasingly, the Governance of Enterprise Information and Technology (GEIT) competency in the board room and executive is needed. Whether your organization is small or large, public, private or not for profit or whether your industry is not considered high-tech, IT is impacting your sector – no exceptions. But there is a skill shortage in boards: GEIT capability is concerningly low. This capability is urgently needed across the board, including those directors who come from finance, legal, marketing, operations and HR backgrounds. Digital disruption also affects all occupations. Putting in place a vision will help ensure emergency responses will meet technology-related duty of care responsibilities. When GEIT-related forward thinking and planning is carried out at the same time that you put your business strategy and plan in place, your organization has a significantly increased chance of not only surviving, but thriving into the future. Those organizations that don’t build GEIT capability risk joining the growing list of once-leading firms left behind in the digital ‘cloud of smoke’. Those organizations that do will be better placed to reap the benefits and hedge against the risks of a digital world. This chapter provides actionable, research-based considerations and processes for boards to use, to build awareness, knowledge and skills in governing technology-related organization strategy, risk and value creation.