How useful is expert opinion for predicting the distribution of a species within and beyond the region of expertise? A case study using brush-tailed rock-wallabiesPetrogale penicillata

1. Species' distribution modelling relies on adequate data sets to build reliable statistical models with high predictive ability. However, the money spent collecting empirical data might be better spent on management. A less expensive source of species' distribution information is expert opinion. This study evaluates expert knowledge and its source. In particular, we determine whether models built on expert knowledge apply over multiple regions or only within the region where the knowledge was derived. 2. The case study focuses on the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby Petrogale penicillata in eastern Australia. We brought together from two biogeographically different regions substantial and well-designed field data and knowledge from nine experts. We used a novel elicitation tool within a geographical information system to systematically collect expert opinions. The tool utilized an indirect approach to elicitation, asking experts simpler questions about observable rather than abstract quantities, with measures in place to identify uncertainty and offer feedback. Bayesian analysis was used to combine field data and expert knowledge in each region to determine: (i) how expert opinion affected models based on field data and (ii) how similar expert-informed models were within regions and across regions. 3. The elicitation tool effectively captured the experts' opinions and their uncertainties. Experts were comfortable with the map-based elicitation approach used, especially with graphical feedback. Experts tended to predict lower values of species occurrence compared with field data. 4. Across experts, consensus on effect sizes occurred for several habitat variables. Expert opinion generally influenced predictions from field data. However, south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales experts had different opinions on the influence of elevation and geology, with these differences attributable to geological differences between these regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. When formulated as priors in Bayesian analysis, expert opinion is useful for modifying or strengthening patterns exhibited by empirical data sets that are limited in size or scope. Nevertheless, the ability of an expert to extrapolate beyond their region of knowledge may be poor. Hence there is significant merit in obtaining information from local experts when compiling species' distribution models across several regions.

Introduction to the development of the ISPCAN child abuse screening tools

The World Report on Children and Violence, (Pinheiro, 2006) was produced at the request of the UN Secretary General and the UN General Assembly. This report recommended improvement in research on child abuse. ISPCAN representatives took this charge and developed 3 new instruments. We describe this background and introduce three new measures designed to assess the incidence and prevalence of child abuse and neglect.

The accidental mentor : Australian rural nurses developing supportive relationships in the workplace

improved rural nurse retention as an outcome of recognising and developing such supportive relationships in the workplace. Strategies include: performance review and development processes that account for all forms of supportive relationships conducted in the workplace; recognising the importance of developing supportive relationships and allocating time for these; and continuing professional development designed to meet local needs for developing a culture of support in the workplace.

Association of inducible nitric oxide synthase with asthma severity, total serum immunoglobulin E and blood eosinophil levels

Background Nitric oxide is released by immune, epithelial and endothelial cells, and plays an important part in the pathophysiology of asthma. Objective To investigate the association of inducible nitric oxide synthases (iNOS) gene repeat polymorphisms with asthma. Methods 230 families with asthma (842 individuals) were recruited to identify and establish the genetic association of iNOS repeats with asthma and associated phenotypes. Serum nitric oxide levels in selected individuals were measured and correlated with specific genotypes. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the effect of age and sex. Results A total of four repeats—a (CCTTT)n promoter repeat, a novel intron 2 (GT)n repeat (BV680047), an intron 4 (GT)n repeat (AFM311ZB1) and an intron 5 (CA)n repeat (D17S1878)—were identified and genotyped. A significant transmission distortion to the probands with asthma was seen for allele 3 of the AFM311ZB1 gene (p = 0.006). This allele was also found to be significantly associated with percentage blood eosinophils (p<0.001) and asthma severity (p = 0.04). Moreover, it was functionally correlated with high serum nitric oxide levels (p = 0.006). Similarly, the promoter repeat was found to be associated with serum total immunoglobulin (Ig)E (p = 0.028). Individuals carrying allele 4 of this repeat have high serum IgE (p<0.001) and nitric oxide levels (p = 0.03). Conclusion This is the first study to identify the repeat polymorphisms in the iNOS gene that are associated with severity of asthma and eosinophils. The functional relevance of the associated alleles with serum nitric oxide levels was also shown. Therefore, these results could be valuable in elucidating the role of nitric oxide in asthma pathogenesis.

Outsourcing strategies for radical innovations: does industry clockspeed make a difference?

Purpose – To determine whether or not clockspeed is an important variable in outsourcing strategies throughout the development of radical innovations. Design/methodology/approach – An internet-based survey of manufacturing firms from all over the world. Findings – An industry's clockspeed does not play a significant role in the success or failure of a particular outsourcing strategy for a radical innovation. Research limitations/implications – Conclusions from earlier research in this area are not necessarily industry-specific. Practical implications – Lessons learned via previous investigations about the computer industry need not be confined to that sector. Vertical integration may be a more robust outsourcing strategy when developing a radical innovation in industries of all clockspeeds. Originality/value – Previous research efforts in this field focused on a single technology jump, but this approach may have overlooked a potentially important variable: industry clockspeed. Thus, this investigation explores whether clockspeed is an important factor.

Vibrational spectroscopic study of multianion mineral clinotyrolite Ca2Cu9[(As,S)O4]4(OH)10•10(H2O)

The molecular structure of the mixed anion mineral Clinotyrolite Ca2Cu9[(As,S)O4]4(OH)10•10(H2O) has been determined by the combination of Raman and infrared spectroscopy. Characteristic bands associated with arsenate, sulphate and hydroxyl units are identified. Broad bands in the OH stretching region are observed and are resolved into component bands. Estimates of hydrogen bond distances were made using a Libowitzky function and both short and long hydrogen bonds are identified. Two intense Raman bands at 842 and ~796 cm-1 are assigned to the ν1 (AsO4)3- symmetric stretching and ν3 (AsO4)3- antisymmetric stretching modes. The comparatively sharp Raman band at 980 cm-1 is assigned to the ν1 (SO4)2- symmetric stretching mode and a broad Raman spectral profile centred upon 1100 cm-1 is attributed to the ν3 (SO4)2- antisymmetric stretching mode.

Empirical IEEE 802.11p performance evaluation on test tracks

IEEE 802.11p is the new standard for inter-vehicular communications (IVC) using the 5.9 GHz frequency band; it is planned to be widely deployed to enable cooperative systems. 802.11p uses and performance have been studied theoretically and in simulations over the past years. Unfortunately, many of these results have not been confirmed by on-tracks experimentation. In this paper, we describe field trials of 802.11p technology with our test vehicles. Metrics such as maximum range, latency and frame loss are examined.

Human factors at the interface between road and rail systems

Railway level crossings present an arguably unique interface between two transport systems that differ markedly in their performance characteristics, their degrees of regulation and their safety cultures. Railway level crossings also differ dramatically in the importance they represent as safety issues for the two modes. For rail, they are the location of a large proportion of fatalities within the system and are therefore the focus of much safety concern. For the road system, they comprise only a few percent of all fatalities, although the potential for catastrophic outcomes exist. Rail operators and regulators have traditionally required technologies to be failsafe and to demonstrate high levels of reliability. The resultant level of complexity and cost has both limited their extent of application and led to a need to better understand how motorists comprehend and respond to these systems.

Sunlight and other determinants of circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels in black and white participants in a nationwide U.S. study

Circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), a marker for vitamin D status, is associated with bone health and possibly cancers and other diseases; yet, the determinants of 25(OH)D status, particularly ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure, are poorly understood. Determinants of 25(OH)D were analyzed in a subcohort of 1,500 participants of the US Radiologic Technologists (USRT) Study that included whites (n 842), blacks (n 646), and people of other races/ethnicities (n 12). Participants were recruited monthly (20082009) across age, sex, race, and ambient UVR level groups. Questionnaires addressing UVR and other exposures were generally completed within 9 days of blood collection. The relation between potential determinants and 25(OH)D levels was examined through regression analysis in a random two-thirds sample and validated in the remaining one third. In the regression model for the full study population, age, race, body mass index, some seasons, hours outdoors being physically active, and vitamin D supplement use were associated with 25(OH)D levels. In whites, generally, the same factors were explanatory. In blacks, only age and vitamin D supplement use predicted 25(OH)D concentrations. In the full population, determinants accounted for 25 of circulating 25(OH)D variability, with similar correlations for subgroups. Despite detailed data on UVR and other factors near the time of blood collection, the ability to explain 25(OH)D was modest.

Phase III study of matrix metalloproteinase inhibitor prinomastat in non-small-cell lung cancer

Purpose: Matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) degrade extracellular proteins and facilitate tumor growth, invasion, metastasis, and angiogenesis. This trial was undertaken to determine the effect of prinomastat, an inhibitor of selected MMPs, on the survival of patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), when given in combination with gemcitabine-cisplatin chemotherapy. Patients and Methods: Chemotherapy-naive patients were randomly assigned to receive prinomastat 15 mg or placebo twice daily orally continuously, in combination with gemcitabine 1,250 mg/m2 days 1 and 8 plus cisplatin 75 mg/m2 day 1, every 21 days for up to six cycles. The planned sample size was 420 patients. Results: Study results at an interim analysis and lack of efficacy in another phase III trial prompted early closure of this study. There were 362 patients randomized (181 on prinomastat and 181 on placebo). One hundred thirty-four patients had stage IIIB disease with T4 primary tumor, 193 had stage IV disease, and 34 had recurrent disease (one enrolled patient was ineligible with stage IIIA disease). Overall response rates for the two treatment arms were similar (27% for prinomastat v 26% for placebo; P = .81). There was no difference in overall survival or time to progression; for prinomastat versus placebo patients, the median overall survival times were 11.5 versus 10.8 months (P = .82), 1-year survival rates were 43% v 38% (P = .45), and progression-free survival times were 6.1 v 5.5 months (P = .11), respectively. The toxicities of prinomastat were arthralgia, stiffness, and joint swelling. Treatment interruption was required in 38% of prinomastat patients and 12% of placebo patients. Conclusion: Prinomastat does not improve the outcome of chemotherapy in advanced NSCLC. © 2005 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

The inaccuracy of national character stereotypes

Consensual stereotypes of some groups are relatively accurate, whereas others are not. Previous work suggesting that national character stereotypes are inaccurate has been criticized on several grounds. In this article we (a) provide arguments for the validity of assessed national mean trait levels as criteria for evaluating stereotype accuracy and (b) report new data on national character in 26 cultures from descriptions (N= 3323) of the typical male or female adolescent, adult, or old person in each. The average ratings were internally consistent and converged with independent stereotypes of the typical culture member, but were weakly related to objective assessments of personality. We argue that this conclusion is consistent with the broader literature on the inaccuracy of national character stereotypes

Gene silencing as an adaptive defence against viruses

Gene silencing was perceived initially as an unpredictable and inconvenient side effect of introducing transgenes into plants. It now seems that it is the consequence of accidentally triggering the plant's adaptive defence mechanism against viruses and transposable elements. This recently discovered mechanism, although mechanistically different, has a number of parallels with the immune system of mammals.

The ‘Indigenous Australian’ theme in the Australian Curriculum English : necessary or not?

On Friday 10 January 2014 Education Minister Christopher Pyne formally announced a review of the inaugural Australian curriculum. In his three and half minute televised justification, Pyne (2014) identified a number of criticisms of the national curriculum document, including the ‘necessity to have themes’ of ‘Australia’s place in Asia, Indigenous Australia and sustainability’. It is the second of these themes that we consider as ALEA’s Hot Topic for March 2014. We respond to Pyne’s momentary musing of the necessity of the ‘Indigenous Australian’ theme in the Australian Curriculum with a particular focus on the discipline of English. In the nomenclature of the Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority’s Australian Curriculum (ACARA, 2013), we are of course referring to the ‘cross curriculum priority’ of ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander histories and cultures’.

Aberrant fibroblast growth factor receptor signaling in bladder and other cancers

Fibroblast growth factors (FGFs) are potent mitogens, morphogens, and inducers of angiogenesis, and FGF signaling governs the genesis of diverse tissues and organs from the earliest stages. With such fundamental embryonic and homeostatic roles, it follows that aberrant FGF signaling underlies a variety of diseases. Pathological modifications to FGF expression are known to cause salivary gland aplasia and autosomal dominant hypophosphatemic rickets, while mutations in FGF receptors (FGFRs) result in a range of skeletal dysplasias. Anomalous FGF signaling is also associated with cancer development and progression. Examples include the overexpression of FGF2 and FGF6 in prostate cancer, and FGF8 overexpression in breast and prostate cancers. Alterations in FGF signaling regulators also impact tumorigenesis, which is exemplified by the down-regulation of Sprouty 1, a negative regulator of FGF signaling, in prostate cancer. In addition, several FGFRs are mutated in human cancers (including FGFR2 in gastric cancer and FGFR3 in bladder cancer). We recently identified intriguing alterations in the FGF pathway in a novel model of bladder carcinoma that consists of a parental cell line (TSU-Pr1/T24) and two sublines with increasing metastatic potential (TSU-Pr1-B1 and TSU-Pr1-B2), which were derived successively through in vivo cycling. It was found that the increasingly metastatic sublines (TSU-Pr1-B1 and TSU-Pr1-B2) had undergone a mesenchymal to epithelial transition. FGFR2IIIc expression, which is normally expressed in mesenchymal cells, was increased in the epithelial-like TSU-Pr1-B1 and TSU-Pr1-B2 sublines and FGFR2 knock-down was associated with the reversion of cells from an epithelial to a mesenchymal phenotype. These observations suggest that modified FGF pathway signaling should be considered when studying other cancer types.