Best practices in prediction for decision-making : lessons from the atmospheric and earth sciences

Predictions that result from scientific research hold great appeal for decision-makers who are grappling with complex and controversial environmental issues, by promising to enhance their ability to determine a need for and outcomes of alternative decisions. A problem exists in that decision-makers and scientists in the public and private sectors solicit, produce, and use such predictions with little understanding of their accuracy or utility, and often without systematic evaluation or mechanisms of accountability. In order to contribute to a more effective role for ecological science in support of decision-making, this paper discusses three ``best practices'' for quantitative ecosystem modeling and prediction gleaned from research on modeling, prediction, and decision-making in the atmospheric and earth sciences. The lessons are distilled from a series of case studies and placed into the specific context of examples from ecological science.

Analysis and prediction of the critical current density across [001]-tilt YBa2Cu3O7- grain boundaries of arbitrary misorientation angles

A qualitative analysis of the expected dilatation strain field in the vicinity of an array of grain-boundary (GB) dislocations is presented. The analysis provides a basis for the prediction of the critical current densities (jc) across low-angle YBa2Cu3O7- (YBCO) GBs as a function of their energy. The introduction of the GB energy allows the extension of the analysis to high-angle GBs using established models which predict the GB energy as a function of misorientation angle. The results are compared to published data for jc across [001]-tilt YBCO GBs for the full range of misorientations, showing a good fit. Since the GB energy is directly related to the GB structure, the analysis may allow a generalization of the scaling behavior of jc with the GB energy. © 1995 The American Physical Society.

Prevalence of upper-body symptoms following breast cancer and its relationship with upper-body function and lymphoedema

This investigation describes the prevalence of upper-body symptoms in a population-based sample of women with breast cancer (BC) and examines their relationships with upper-body function (UBF) and lymphoedema, as two clinically important sequelae. Australian women (n=287) with unilateral BC were assessed at three-monthly intervals, from six to 18 months post-surgery (PS). Participants reported the presence and intensity of upper-body symptoms on the treated side. Objective and self-reported UBF and lymphoedema (bioimpedance spectroscopy) were also assessed. Approximately 50% of women reported at least one moderate-to-extreme symptom at 6- and at 18-months PS. There was a significant relationship between symptoms and function (p<0.01), whereby perceived and objective function declined with increasing number of symptoms present. Those with lymphoedema were more likely to report multiple symptoms and presence of symptoms at baseline increased risk of lymphoedema (ORs>1.3, p=0.02). Although, presence of symptoms explained only 5.5% of the variation in the odds of lymphoedema. Upper-body symptoms are common and persistent following breast cancer and are associated with clinical ramifications, including reduced UBF and increased risk of developing lymphoedema. However, using the presence of symptoms as a diagnostic indicator of lymphoedema is limited.

Physical function and health-related quality of life of older adults undergoing hospital rehabilitation : how strong is the association?

The purpose of this research is to report preliminary empirical evidence regarding the association between common physical performance measures and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of hospitalized older adults recovering from illness and injury. Frequently, these patients do not return to premorbid levels of independence and physical ability. Rehabilitation for this population often focuses on improving physical functioning and mobility with the intention of maximizing their HRQoL for discharge and thereafter. For this reason, longitudinal use of physical performance measures as an indicator of improvement in physical functioning (and thus HRQoL) is common. Although this is a logical approach, there have been mixed results from previous investigations into the association between common measures of physical function and HRQoL amongst other adult patient populations.1,2 There has been no previous investigation reporting the association between HRQoL and a variety of common physical performance measures in hospitalized older adults.

Chlamydial infection of immune cells : altered function and implications for disease

Chlamydia trachomatis is an obligate intracellular bacterial pathogen that infects the genital and ocular mucosa of humans, causing infections that can lead to pelvic inflammatory disease, infertility, and blinding trachoma. C. pneumoniae is a respiratory pathogen that is the cause of 12–15% of community-acquired pneumonia. Both chlamydial species were believed to be restricted to the epithelia of the genital, ocular, and respiratory mucosa; however, increasing evidence suggests that both these pathogens can be isolated from peripheral blood of both healthy individuals and patients with inflammatory conditions such as coronary artery disease and asthma. Chlamydia can also be isolated from brain tissues of patients with degenerative neurological disorders such as Alzheimer’s disease and multiple sclerosis, and also from certain lymphomas. An increasing number of in vitro studies suggest that some chlamydial species can infect immune cells, at least at low levels. These infections may alter immune cell function in a way that promotes chlamydial persistence in the host and contributes to the progression of several chronic inflammatory diseases. In this paper, we review the evidence for the growth of Chlamydia in immune cells, particularly monocytes/macrophages and dendritic cells, and describe how infection may affect the function of these cells.

Latent degradation indicators estimation and prediction : a Monte Carlo approach

Asset health inspections can produce two types of indicators: (1) direct indicators (e.g. the thickness of a brake pad, and the crack depth on a gear) which directly relate to a failure mechanism; and (2) indirect indicators (e.g. the indicators extracted from vibration signals and oil analysis data) which can only partially reveal a failure mechanism. While direct indicators enable more precise references to asset health condition, they are often more difficult to obtain than indirect indicators. The state space model provides an efficient approach to estimating direct indicators by using indirect indicators. However, existing state space models to estimate direct indicators largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires fixed inspection intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This paper proposes a state space model without these assumptions. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate the model parameters and the remaining useful life. These algorithms are evaluated for performance using numerical simulations through MATLAB. The result shows that both the parameters and the remaining useful life are estimated accurately. Finally, the new state space model is used to process vibration and crack depth data from an accelerated test of a gearbox. During this application, the new state space model shows a better fitness result than the state space model with linear and Gaussian assumption.

Associations between young children's emotion attributions and prediction of outcome in differing social situations

Associations between young children's attributions of emotion at different points in a story, and with regard to their own prediction about the story's outcome, were investigated using two hypothetical scenarios of social and emotional challenge (social entry and negative event). First grade children (N = 250) showed an understanding that emotions are tied to situational cues by varying the emotions they attributed both between and within scenarios. Furthermore, emotions attributed to the main protagonist at the beginning of the scenarios were differentially associated with children's prediction of a positive or negative outcome and with the valence of the emotion attributed at the end of the scenario. Gender differences in responses to some items were also found. © 2010 The British Psychological Society.