315 resultados para accuracy of estimation


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A novel application of the popular web instruction architecture Blackboard Academic Suite® is described. The method was applied to a large number of students to assess quantitatively the accuracy of each student’s laboratory skills. The method provided immediate feedback to students on their personal skill level, replaced labour-intensive scrutiny of laboratory skills by teaching staff and identified immediately those students requiring further individual assistance in mastering the skill under evaluation. The method can be used for both formative and summative assessment. When used formatively, the assessment can be repeated by the student without penalty until the skill is mastered. When used for summative assessment, the method can save the teacher much time and effort in assessing laboratory skills of vital importance to students in the real world.

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Increased industrialisation has brought to the forefront the susceptibility of concrete columns in both buildings and bridges to vehicle impacts. Accurate vulnerability assessments are crucial in the design process due to possible catastrophic nature of the failures that can cause. This chapter reports on research undertaken to investigate the impact capacity of the columns of low to medium raised building designed according to the Australian standards. Numerical simulation techniques were used in the process and validation was done by using experimental results published in the literature. The investigation thus far has confirmed that vulnerability of typical columns in five story buildings located in urban areas to medium velocity car impacts and hence these columns need to be re-designed or retrofitted. In addition, accuracy of the simplified method presented in EN 1991-1-7 to quantify the impact damage was scrutinised. A simplified concept to assess the damage due to all collisions modes was introduced. The research information will be extended to generate a common data base to assess the vulnerability of columns in urban areas against new generation of vehicles.

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The neutron logging method has been widely used for field measurement of soil moisture content. This non-destructive method permitted the measurement of in-situ soil moisture content at various depths without the need for burying any sensor. Twenty-three sites located around regional Melbourne have been selected for long term monitoring of soil moisture content using neutron probe. Soil samples collected during the installation are used for site characterisation and neutron probe calibration purposes. A linear relationship is obtained between the corrected neutron probe reading and moisture content for both the individual and combined data from seven sites. It is observed that the liner relationship, developed using combined data, can be used for all sites with an average accuracy of about 80%. Monitoring of the variation of soil moisture content with depth in six months for two sites is presented in this paper.

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Impedance cardiography is an application of bioimpedance analysis primarily used in a research setting to determine cardiac output. It is a non invasive technique that measures the change in the impedance of the thorax which is attributed to the ejection of a volume of blood from the heart. The cardiac output is calculated from the measured impedance using the parallel conductor theory and a constant value for the resistivity of blood. However, the resistivity of blood has been shown to be velocity dependent due to changes in the orientation of red blood cells induced by changing shear forces during flow. The overall goal of this thesis was to study the effect that flow deviations have on the electrical impedance of blood, both experimentally and theoretically, and to apply the results to a clinical setting. The resistivity of stationary blood is isotropic as the red blood cells are randomly orientated due to Brownian motion. In the case of blood flowing through rigid tubes, the resistivity is anisotropic due to the biconcave discoidal shape and orientation of the cells. The generation of shear forces across the width of the tube during flow causes the cells to align with the minimal cross sectional area facing the direction of flow. This is in order to minimise the shear stress experienced by the cells. This in turn results in a larger cross sectional area of plasma and a reduction in the resistivity of the blood as the flow increases. Understanding the contribution of this effect on the thoracic impedance change is a vital step in achieving clinical acceptance of impedance cardiography. Published literature investigates the resistivity variations for constant blood flow. In this case, the shear forces are constant and the impedance remains constant during flow at a magnitude which is less than that for stationary blood. The research presented in this thesis, however, investigates the variations in resistivity of blood during pulsataile flow through rigid tubes and the relationship between impedance, velocity and acceleration. Using rigid tubes isolates the impedance change to variations associated with changes in cell orientation only. The implications of red blood cell orientation changes for clinical impedance cardiography were also explored. This was achieved through measurement and analysis of the experimental impedance of pulsatile blood flowing through rigid tubes in a mock circulatory system. A novel theoretical model including cell orientation dynamics was developed for the impedance of pulsatile blood through rigid tubes. The impedance of flowing blood was theoretically calculated using analytical methods for flow through straight tubes and the numerical Lattice Boltzmann method for flow through complex geometries such as aortic valve stenosis. The result of the analytical theoretical model was compared to the experimental impedance measurements through rigid tubes. The impedance calculated for flow through a stenosis using the Lattice Boltzmann method provides results for comparison with impedance cardiography measurements collected as part of a pilot clinical trial to assess the suitability of using bioimpedance techniques to assess the presence of aortic stenosis. The experimental and theoretical impedance of blood was shown to inversely follow the blood velocity during pulsatile flow with a correlation of -0.72 and -0.74 respectively. The results for both the experimental and theoretical investigations demonstrate that the acceleration of the blood is an important factor in determining the impedance, in addition to the velocity. During acceleration, the relationship between impedance and velocity is linear (r2 = 0.98, experimental and r2 = 0.94, theoretical). The relationship between the impedance and velocity during the deceleration phase is characterised by a time decay constant, ô , ranging from 10 to 50 s. The high level of agreement between the experimental and theoretically modelled impedance demonstrates the accuracy of the model developed here. An increase in the haematocrit of the blood resulted in an increase in the magnitude of the impedance change due to changes in the orientation of red blood cells. The time decay constant was shown to decrease linearly with the haematocrit for both experimental and theoretical results, although the slope of this decrease was larger in the experimental case. The radius of the tube influences the experimental and theoretical impedance given the same velocity of flow. However, when the velocity was divided by the radius of the tube (labelled the reduced average velocity) the impedance response was the same for two experimental tubes with equivalent reduced average velocity but with different radii. The temperature of the blood was also shown to affect the impedance with the impedance decreasing as the temperature increased. These results are the first published for the impedance of pulsatile blood. The experimental impedance change measured orthogonal to the direction of flow is in the opposite direction to that measured in the direction of flow. These results indicate that the impedance of blood flowing through rigid cylindrical tubes is axisymmetric along the radius. This has not previously been verified experimentally. Time frequency analysis of the experimental results demonstrated that the measured impedance contains the same frequency components occuring at the same time point in the cycle as the velocity signal contains. This suggests that the impedance contains many of the fluctuations of the velocity signal. Application of a theoretical steady flow model to pulsatile flow presented here has verified that the steady flow model is not adequate in calculating the impedance of pulsatile blood flow. The success of the new theoretical model over the steady flow model demonstrates that the velocity profile is important in determining the impedance of pulsatile blood. The clinical application of the impedance of blood flow through a stenosis was theoretically modelled using the Lattice Boltzman method (LBM) for fluid flow through complex geometeries. The impedance of blood exiting a narrow orifice was calculated for varying degrees of stenosis. Clincial impedance cardiography measurements were also recorded for both aortic valvular stenosis patients (n = 4) and control subjects (n = 4) with structurally normal hearts. This pilot trial was used to corroborate the results of the LBM. Results from both investigations showed that the decay time constant for impedance has potential in the assessment of aortic valve stenosis. In the theoretically modelled case (LBM results), the decay time constant increased with an increase in the degree of stenosis. The clinical results also showed a statistically significant difference in time decay constant between control and test subjects (P = 0.03). The time decay constant calculated for test subjects (ô = 180 - 250 s) is consistently larger than that determined for control subjects (ô = 50 - 130 s). This difference is thought to be due to difference in the orientation response of the cells as blood flows through the stenosis. Such a non-invasive technique using the time decay constant for screening of aortic stenosis provides additional information to that currently given by impedance cardiography techniques and improves the value of the device to practitioners. However, the results still need to be verified in a larger study. While impedance cardiography has not been widely adopted clinically, it is research such as this that will enable future acceptance of the method.

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IEC Technical Committee 57 (TC57) published a series of standards and technical reports for “Communication networks and systems for power utility automation” as the IEC 61850 series. Sampled value (SV) process buses allow for the removal of potentially lethal voltages and damaging currents inside substation control rooms and marshalling kiosks, reduce the amount of cabling required in substations, and facilitate the adoption of non-conventional instrument transformers. IEC 61850-9-2 provides an inter-operable solution to support multi-vendor process bus solutions. A time synchronisation system is required for a SV process bus, however the details are not defined in IEC 61850-9-2. IEEE Std 1588-2008, Precision Time Protocol version 2 (PTPv2), provides the greatest accuracy of network based time transfer systems, with timing errors of less than 100 ns achievable. PTPv2 is proposed by the IEC Smart Grid Strategy Group to synchronise IEC 61850 based substation automation systems. IEC 61850-9-2, PTPv2 and Ethernet are three complementary protocols that together define the future of sampled value digital process connections in substations. The suitability of PTPv2 for use with SV is evaluated, with preliminary results indicating that steady state performance is acceptable (jitter < 300 ns), and that extremely stable grandmaster oscillators are required to ensure SV timing requirements are met when recovering from loss of external synchronisation (such as GPS).

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In this paper, we apply the incremental EM method to Bayesian Network Classifiers to learn and interpret hyperspectral sensor data in robotic planetary missions. Hyperspectral image spectroscopy is an emerging technique for geological investigations from airborne or orbital sensors. Many spacecraft carry spectroscopic equipment as wavelengths outside the visible light in the electromagnetic spectrum give much greater information about an object. The algorithm used is an extension to the standard Expectation Maximisation (EM). The incremental method allows us to learn and interpret the data as they become available. Two Bayesian network classifiers were tested: the Naive Bayes, and the Tree-Augmented-Naive Bayes structures. Our preliminary experiments show that incremental learning with unlabelled data can improve the accuracy of the classifier.

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Three recent papers published in Chemical Engineering Journal studied the solution of a model of diffusion and nonlinear reaction using three different methods. Two of these studies obtained series solutions using specialized mathematical methods, known as the Adomian decomposition method and the homotopy analysis method. Subsequently it was shown that the solution of the same particular model could be written in terms of a transcendental function called Gauss’ hypergeometric function. These three previous approaches focused on one particular reactive transport model. This particular model ignored advective transport and considered one specific reaction term only. Here we generalize these previous approaches and develop an exact analytical solution for a general class of steady state reactive transport models that incorporate (i) combined advective and diffusive transport, and (ii) any sufficiently differentiable reaction term R(C). The new solution is a convergent Maclaurin series. The Maclaurin series solution can be derived without any specialized mathematical methods nor does it necessarily involve the computation of any transcendental function. Applying the Maclaurin series solution to certain case studies shows that the previously published solutions are particular cases of the more general solution outlined here. We also demonstrate the accuracy of the Maclaurin series solution by comparing with numerical solutions for particular cases.

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There has been an increasing interest in objects within the HCI field particularly with a view to designing tangible interfaces. However, little is known about how people make sense of objects and how objects support thinking. This paper presents a study of groups of engineers using physical objects to prototype designs, and articulates the roles that physical objects play in supporting their design thinking and communications. The study finds that design thinking is heavily dependent upon physical objects, that designers are active and opportunistic in seeking out physical props and that the interpretation and use of an object depends heavily on the activity. The paper discusses the trade-offs that designers make between speed and accuracy of models, and specificity and generality in choice of representations. Implications for design of tangible interfaces are discussed.

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The modern society has come to expect the electrical energy on demand, while many of the facilities in power systems are aging beyond repair and maintenance. The risk of failure is increasing with the aging equipments and can pose serious consequences for continuity of electricity supply. As the equipments used in high voltage power networks are very expensive, economically it may not be feasible to purchase and store spares in a warehouse for extended periods of time. On the other hand, there is normally a significant time before receiving equipment once it is ordered. This situation has created a considerable interest in the evaluation and application of probability methods for aging plant and provisions of spares in bulk supply networks, and can be of particular importance for substations. Quantitative adequacy assessment of substation and sub-transmission power systems is generally done using a contingency enumeration approach which includes the evaluation of contingencies, classification of the contingencies based on selected failure criteria. The problem is very complex because of the need to include detailed modelling and operation of substation and sub-transmission equipment using network flow evaluation and to consider multiple levels of component failures. In this thesis a new model associated with aging equipment is developed to combine the standard tools of random failures, as well as specific model for aging failures. This technique is applied in this thesis to include and examine the impact of aging equipments on system reliability of bulk supply loads and consumers in distribution network for defined range of planning years. The power system risk indices depend on many factors such as the actual physical network configuration and operation, aging conditions of the equipment, and the relevant constraints. The impact and importance of equipment reliability on power system risk indices in a network with aging facilities contains valuable information for utilities to better understand network performance and the weak links in the system. In this thesis, algorithms are developed to measure the contribution of individual equipment to the power system risk indices, as part of the novel risk analysis tool. A new cost worth approach was developed in this thesis that can make an early decision in planning for replacement activities concerning non-repairable aging components, in order to maintain a system reliability performance which economically is acceptable. The concepts, techniques and procedures developed in this thesis are illustrated numerically using published test systems. It is believed that the methods and approaches presented, substantially improve the accuracy of risk predictions by explicit consideration of the effect of equipment entering a period of increased risk of a non-repairable failure.

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Recent perceptual-motor studies have revealed variations in learning trajectories of novices. Despite such observation, relatively little attention has been paid to studying individual differences in experienced performers’ perceptual-motor behaviors. The present study examined individual differences for a visual anticipation task. Experienced association football goalkeepers attempted to intercept penalty kicks taken with deceptive and non-deceptive kicking actions. Data revealed that differences in the action capabilities of goalkeepers affected the timing and accuracy of movement response behaviors. Faster goalkeepers tended to wait until later before initiating movement in comparison with slower goalkeepers. The study of affordances in sport environments offers a theoretical framework with which to overcome some of the reported methodological limitations in the visual anticipation literature.

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Air quality and temperatures in classrooms are important factors influencing the student learning process. To improve the thermal comfort of classrooms for Queensland State Schools, Queensland Government initiated the "Cooler Schools Program". One of the key objectives under this program was to develop low energy cooling systems as an alternative to high energy demand conventioanl split system of air conditioning (AC) systems. In order to compare and evaluate the energy performance of different types of air conditioners installed in classrooms, monitoring systems were installed in a state primary school located in the greater outer urban area of Brisbane, Australia. It was found that the installation of monitoring systems could have a significant impact on the accuracy of the data being collected. By comparing the estimated energy efficiency ratio (EER)for four qualified air conditioners included in this study, it was also found that AC6, a hybrid air conditioner newly developed by the Queensland Department of Public Works (DPW), had the best energy performance, although the current data were not able to show the full advantages of the system.

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Hot spot identification (HSID) plays a significant role in improving the safety of transportation networks. Numerous HSID methods have been proposed, developed, and evaluated in the literature. The vast majority of HSID methods reported and evaluated in the literature assume that crash data are complete, reliable, and accurate. Crash under-reporting, however, has long been recognized as a threat to the accuracy and completeness of historical traffic crash records. As a natural continuation of prior studies, the paper evaluates the influence that under-reported crashes exert on HSID methods. To conduct the evaluation, five groups of data gathered from Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) over the course of three years are adjusted to account for fifteen different assumed levels of under-reporting. Three identification methods are evaluated: simple ranking (SR), empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB). Various threshold levels for establishing hotspots are explored. Finally, two evaluation criteria are compared across HSID methods. The results illustrate that the identification bias—the ability to correctly identify at risk sites--under-reporting is influenced by the degree of under-reporting. Comparatively speaking, crash under-reporting has the largest influence on the FB method and the least influence on the SR method. Additionally, the impact is positively related to the percentage of the under-reported PDO crashes and inversely related to the percentage of the under-reported injury crashes. This finding is significant because it reveals that despite PDO crashes being least severe and costly, they have the most significant influence on the accuracy of HSID.

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Different international plant protection organisations advocate different schemes for conducting pest risk assessments. Most of these schemes use structured questionnaire in which experts are asked to score several items using an ordinal scale. The scores are then combined using a range of procedures, such as simple arithmetic mean, weighted averages, multiplication of scores, and cumulative sums. The most useful schemes will correctly identify harmful pests and identify ones that are not. As the quality of a pest risk assessment can depend on the characteristics of the scoring system used by the risk assessors (i.e., on the number of points of the scale and on the method used for combining the component scores), it is important to assess and compare the performance of different scoring systems. In this article, we proposed a new method for assessing scoring systems. Its principle is to simulate virtual data using a stochastic model and, then, to estimate sensitivity and specificity values from these data for different scoring systems. The interest of our approach was illustrated in a case study where several scoring systems were compared. Data for this analysis were generated using a probabilistic model describing the pest introduction process. The generated data were then used to simulate the outcome of scoring systems and to assess the accuracy of the decisions about positive and negative introduction. The results showed that ordinal scales with at most 5 or 6 points were sufficient and that the multiplication-based scoring systems performed better than their sum-based counterparts. The proposed method could be used in the future to assess a great diversity of scoring systems.

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Aim: To explore the lived experience of being a sole mother in Taiwan Background: The number of sole mothers in Taiwan has increased by 55 % in the last decade due to changes in the social and economic status of women (e.g. earlier divorce, the development of national policies for the protection of women, the rise of feminism, and changing work practices which have seen an increase in the number of women in the workforce) (Taiwan Department of Statistics, 2010). Issues confronting sole mothers as part of daily living involve inability to cope with daily life stressors, little social support, experiencing feelings of helplessness and hopelessness, and lack of self-confidence to assume responsibility for the physical and mental health needs of themselves and their children (Cairney, 2007; Loxton, Mooney & Young, 2006; Samuels-Dennis, 2006; Waldron et al., 1996). Although there have been a number of studies conducted concerning what it means to be a sole mother, few Taiwanese studies have been undertaken. In light of the absence of research on this topic from a Taiwanese perspective, this study was undertaken. Design:A descriptive phenomenological approach was used for this study. Methods: In-depth audio-taped interviews were conducted with 15 sole Taiwanese mothers. The audiotapes were later transcribed, translated into English, and then back translated into Chinese to ensure accuracy of participants‘ information. Colaizzi‘s phenomenological approach to analysis with one additional step (eight steps in all) informed the analytical process. Findings: The process of analysis identified six central themes: 1. Enduring the burdensome, 2. Survival means living day-by-day, 3. Living in the shadows of insomnia, depression and suicidal thoughts, 4. Living with rejection and social isolation, 5. Living with uncertainty, and 6. Transcending difficult times through being resilient. Conclusion: For the participants of this study, the lived world of Taiwanese sole mothers was replete with daily difficulties marked by isolation, loneliness, social disapproval and rejection. Feelings of sadness and dejection were their daily companions. However, amid their myriad hardships, the participants found strength and solace in their children and close friends. Rather than succumb to the pressures of being a sole mother, the participants forged new paths spurred on by their own hopes and dreams for a better future. The findings of this study have the potential to make significant contributions to extant knowledge concerning the lived experiences of sole mothers in Taiwan.

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Suburbanisation has been internationally a major phenomenon in the last decades. Suburb-to-suburb routes are nowadays the most widespread road journeys; and this resulted in an increment of distances travelled, particularly on faster suburban highways. The design of highways tends to over-simplify the driving task and this can result in decreased alertness. Driving behaviour is consequently impaired and drivers are then more likely to be involved in road crashes. This is particularly dangerous on highways where the speed limit is high. While effective countermeasures to this decrement in alertness do not currently exist, the development of in-vehicle sensors opens avenues for monitoring driving behaviour in real-time. The aim of this study is to evaluate in real-time the level of alertness of the driver through surrogate measures that can be collected from in-vehicle sensors. Slow EEG activity is used as a reference to evaluate driver's alertness. Data are collected in a driving simulator instrumented with an eye tracking system, a heart rate monitor and an electrodermal activity device (N=25 participants). Four different types of highways (driving scenario of 40 minutes each) are implemented through the variation of the road design (amount of curves and hills) and the roadside environment (amount of buildings and traffic). We show with Neural Networks that reduced alertness can be detected in real-time with an accuracy of 92% using lane positioning, steering wheel movement, head rotation, blink frequency, heart rate variability and skin conductance level. Such results show that it is possible to assess driver's alertness with surrogate measures. Such methodology could be used to warn drivers of their alertness level through the development of an in-vehicle device monitoring in real-time drivers' behaviour on highways, and therefore it could result in improved road safety.