On the nature of over-dispersion in motor vehicle crash prediction models

Statistical modeling of traffic crashes has been of interest to researchers for decades. Over the most recent decade many crash models have accounted for extra-variation in crash counts—variation over and above that accounted for by the Poisson density. The extra-variation – or dispersion – is theorized to capture unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites. The majority of studies have assumed fixed dispersion parameters in over-dispersed crash models—tantamount to assuming that unaccounted for variation is proportional to the expected crash count. Miaou and Lord [Miaou, S.P., Lord, D., 2003. Modeling traffic crash-flow relationships for intersections: dispersion parameter, functional form, and Bayes versus empirical Bayes methods. Transport. Res. Rec. 1840, 31–40] challenged the fixed dispersion parameter assumption, and examined various dispersion parameter relationships when modeling urban signalized intersection accidents in Toronto. They suggested that further work is needed to determine the appropriateness of the findings for rural as well as other intersection types, to corroborate their findings, and to explore alternative dispersion functions. This study builds upon the work of Miaou and Lord, with exploration of additional dispersion functions, the use of an independent data set, and presents an opportunity to corroborate their findings. Data from Georgia are used in this study. A Bayesian modeling approach with non-informative priors is adopted, using sampling-based estimation via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and the Gibbs sampler. A total of eight model specifications were developed; four of them employed traffic flows as explanatory factors in mean structure while the remainder of them included geometric factors in addition to major and minor road traffic flows. The models were compared and contrasted using the significance of coefficients, standard deviance, chi-square goodness-of-fit, and deviance information criteria (DIC) statistics. The findings indicate that the modeling of the dispersion parameter, which essentially explains the extra-variance structure, depends greatly on how the mean structure is modeled. In the presence of a well-defined mean function, the extra-variance structure generally becomes insignificant, i.e. the variance structure is a simple function of the mean. It appears that extra-variation is a function of covariates when the mean structure (expected crash count) is poorly specified and suffers from omitted variables. In contrast, when sufficient explanatory variables are used to model the mean (expected crash count), extra-Poisson variation is not significantly related to these variables. If these results are generalizable, they suggest that model specification may be improved by testing extra-variation functions for significance. They also suggest that known influences of expected crash counts are likely to be different than factors that might help to explain unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites

Incorporating weather into regionwide safety planning prediction models

Predicting safety on roadways is standard practice for road safety professionals and has a corresponding extensive literature. The majority of safety prediction models are estimated using roadway segment and intersection (microscale) data, while more recently efforts have been undertaken to predict safety at the planning level (macroscale). Safety prediction models typically include roadway, operations, and exposure variables—factors known to affect safety in fundamental ways. Environmental variables, in particular variables attempting to capture the effect of rain on road safety, are difficult to obtain and have rarely been considered. In the few cases weather variables have been included, historical averages rather than actual weather conditions during which crashes are observed have been used. Without the inclusion of weather related variables researchers have had difficulty explaining regional differences in the safety performance of various entities (e.g. intersections, road segments, highways, etc.) As part of the NCHRP 8-44 research effort, researchers developed PLANSAFE, or planning level safety prediction models. These models make use of socio-economic, demographic, and roadway variables for predicting planning level safety. Accounting for regional differences - similar to the experience for microscale safety models - has been problematic during the development of planning level safety prediction models. More specifically, without weather related variables there is an insufficient set of variables for explaining safety differences across regions and states. Furthermore, omitted variable bias resulting from excluding these important variables may adversely impact the coefficients of included variables, thus contributing to difficulty in model interpretation and accuracy. This paper summarizes the results of an effort to include weather related variables, particularly various measures of rainfall, into accident frequency prediction and the prediction of the frequency of fatal and/or injury degree of severity crash models. The purpose of the study was to determine whether these variables do in fact improve overall goodness of fit of the models, whether these variables may explain some or all of observed regional differences, and identifying the estimated effects of rainfall on safety. The models are based on Traffic Analysis Zone level datasets from Michigan, and Pima and Maricopa Counties in Arizona. Numerous rain-related variables were found to be statistically significant, selected rain related variables improved the overall goodness of fit, and inclusion of these variables reduced the portion of the model explained by the constant in the base models without weather variables. Rain tends to diminish safety, as expected, in fairly complex ways, depending on rain frequency and intensity.

Accident prediction model for railway-highway interfaces

Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade crossings, resulting in 402 accidents, of which about 20% resulted in fatalities. These statistics suggest that efforts to reduce crashes at these locations may significantly reduce crash costs. The objective of this paper is to examine factors associated with railroad crossing crashes. Various statistical models are used to examine the relationships between crossing accidents and features of crossings. The paper also compares accident models developed in the United States and the safety effects of crossing elements obtained using Korea data. Crashes were observed to increase with total traffic volume and average daily train volumes. The proximity of crossings to commercial areas and the distance of the train detector from crossings are associated with larger numbers of accidents, as is the time duration between the activation of warning signals and gates. The unique contributions of the paper are the application of the gamma probability model to deal with underdispersion and the insights obtained regarding railroad crossing related vehicle crashes. Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade crossings, resulting in 402 accidents, of which about 20% resulted in fatalities. These statistics suggest that efforts to reduce crashes at these locations may significantly reduce crash costs. The objective of this paper is to examine factors associated with railroad crossing crashes. Various statistical models are used to examine the relationships between crossing accidents and features of crossings. The paper also compares accident models developed in the United States and the safety effects of crossing elements obtained using Korea data. Crashes were observed to increase with total traffic volume and average daily train volumes. The proximity of crossings to commercial areas and the distance of the train detector from crossings are associated with larger numbers of accidents, as is the time duration between the activation of warning signals and gates. The unique contributions of the paper are the application of the gamma probability model to deal with underdispersion and the insights obtained regarding railroad crossing related vehicle crashes.

Development of accident prediction models for rural highway intersections

A study was done to develop macrolevel crash prediction models that can be used to understand and identify effective countermeasures for improving signalized highway intersections and multilane stop-controlled highway intersections in rural areas. Poisson and negative binomial regression models were fit to intersection crash data from Georgia, California, and Michigan. To assess the suitability of the models, several goodness-of-fit measures were computed. The statistical models were then used to shed light on the relationships between crash occurrence and traffic and geometric features of the rural signalized intersections. The results revealed that traffic flow variables significantly affected the overall safety performance of the intersections regardless of intersection type and that the geometric features of intersections varied across intersection type and also influenced crash type.

Reliability prediction using the non-parametric explicit hazard model : a case study

Survival probability prediction using covariate-based hazard approach is a known statistical methodology in engineering asset health management. We have previously reported the semi-parametric Explicit Hazard Model (EHM) which incorporates three types of information: population characteristics; condition indicators; and operating environment indicators for hazard prediction. This model assumes the baseline hazard has the form of the Weibull distribution. To avoid this assumption, this paper presents the non-parametric EHM which is a distribution-free covariate-based hazard model. In this paper, an application of the non-parametric EHM is demonstrated via a case study. In this case study, survival probabilities of a set of resistance elements using the non-parametric EHM are compared with the Weibull proportional hazard model and traditional Weibull model. The results show that the non-parametric EHM can effectively predict asset life using the condition indicator, operating environment indicator, and failure history.

Intrinsically photosensitive melanopsin retinal ganglion cell contributions to the pupillary light reflex and circadian rhythm

Recently discovered intrinsically photosensitive melanopsin retinal ganglion cells contribute to the maintenance of pupil diameter, recovery and post-illumination components of the pupillary light reflex and provide the primary environmental light input to the suprachiasmatic nucleus for photoentrainment of the circadian rhythm. This review summarises recent progress in understanding intrinsically photosensitive ganglion cell histology and physiological properties in the context of their contribution to the pupillary and circadian functions and introduces a clinical framework for using the pupillary light reflex to evaluate inner retinal (intrinsically photosensitive melanopsin ganglion cell) and outer retinal (rod and cone photoreceptor) function in the detection of retinal eye disease.

Effects of the architecture of tissue engineering scaffolds on cell seeding and culturing

The advance of rapid prototyping techniques has significantly improved control over the pore network architecture of tissue engineering scaffolds. In this work we assessed the influence of scaffold pore architecture on cell seeding and static culturing, by comparing a computer‐designed gyroid architecture fabricated by stereolithography to a random‐pore architecture resulting from salt‐leaching. The scaffold types showed comparable porosity and pore size values, but the gyroid type showed a more than tenfold higher permeability due to the absence of size‐limiting pore interconnections. The higher permeability significantly improved the wetting properties of the hydrophobic scaffolds, and increased the settling speed of cells upon static seeding of immortalised mesenchymal stem cells. After dynamic seeding followed by 5 days of static culture, gyroid scaffolds showed large cell populations in the centre of the scaffold, while salt‐leached scaffolds were covered with a cell‐sheet on the outside and no cells were found in the scaffold centre. It was shown that interconnectivity of the pores and permeability of the scaffold prolongs the time of static culture before overgrowth of cells at the scaffold periphery occurs. Furthermore, novel scaffold designs are proposed to further improve the transport of oxygen and nutrients throughout the scaffolds, and to create tissue engineering grafts with designed, pre‐fabricated vasculature.

Cell invasion with proliferation mechanisms motivated by time-lapse data

Cell invasion involves a population of cells which are motile and proliferative. Traditional discrete models of proliferation involve agents depositing daughter agents on nearest- neighbor lattice sites. Motivated by time-lapse images of cell invasion, we propose and analyze two new discrete proliferation models in the context of an exclusion process with an undirected motility mechanism. These discrete models are related to a family of reaction- diffusion equations and can be used to make predictions over a range of scales appropriate for interpreting experimental data. The new proliferation mechanisms are biologically relevant and mathematically convenient as the continuum-discrete relationship is more robust for the new proliferation mechanisms relative to traditional approaches.

Migration of breast cancer cells : understanding the roles of volume exclusion and cell-to-cell adhesion

We study MCF-7 breast cancer cell movement in a transwell apparatus. Various experimental conditions lead to a variety of monotone and nonmonotone responses which are difficult to interpret. We anticipate that the experimental results could be caused by cell-to-cell adhesion or volume exclusion. Without any modeling, it is impossible to understand the relative roles played by these two mechanisms. A lattice-based exclusion process random-walk model incorporating agent-to-agent adhesion is applied to the experimental system. Our combined experimental and modeling approach shows that a low value of cell-to-cell adhesion strength provides the best explanation of the experimental data suggesting that volume exclusion plays a more important role than cell-to-cell adhesion. This combined experimental and modeling study gives insight into the cell-level details and design of transwell assays.

Solid freeform fabrication of hydrogel structures and cell encapsulation

We aim to fabricate computer-controlled hydrogel structures containing viable encapsulated cells to overcome the low seeding densities which are inherent to most pre-fabricated scaffold systems.

Selective accumulation of virus-specific CD8+ T cells within the peripheral blood stem cell compartment

The absence of cellular immunity is central to the pathogenesis of herpesvirus-mediated diseases after allogeneic hemopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). For both bone marrow (BM)– and granulocyte-colony stimulating factor–mobilized peripheral blood stem cells (PBSCs) HSCT, donor-derived Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and cytomegalovirus (CMV) peptide–specific CD8+ T cells clones undergo early expansion and persist long-term, with additional diversification arising from novel antigen-specific clones from donor-derived progenitors. Whether BM or PBSC is the superior source of antiviral CD8+ T cells is unclear. Given that PBSC has largely replaced BM as a source of stem cells for HSCT, it is unlikely that herpesvirus effector T-cell reconstitution will ever be compared prospectively. PBSC grafts contain 10 to 30 times more T cells than BM and a randomized study found proven viral infections were more frequent in BM than PBSC recipients, suggesting viral-specific T-cell immunity is enhanced in PBSC. Recently Moss showed in lung cancer patients that herpesvirus-specific BM-derived CD8+ T cells have unique homing properties relative to herpesvirus-specific CD8+ T cells present in unmobilized peripheral blood (PB). Immunodominant EBV-lytic peptide–specific CD8+ T cells were enriched in BM but were reduced for CMV peptide–specific CD8+ T cells relative to PB. EBV-latent peptide–specific CD8+ T cells were equivalent, which has relevance in the context of posttransplantation lymphoproliferative disorder for which impaired EBV-latent CD8+ T-cell immunity is a risk-factor. A comparison of herpesvirus-specific cellular immunity in PBSC versus PB has yet to be performed.

Remaining useful life prediction using elliptical basis function network and Markov Chain

This paper presents a novel method for remaining useful life prediction using the Elliptical Basis Function (EBF) network and a Markov chain. The EBF structure is trained by a modified Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in order to take into account the missing covariate set. No explicit extrapolation is needed for internal covariates while a Markov chain is constructed to represent the evolution of external covariates in the study. The estimated external and the unknown internal covariates constitute an incomplete covariate set which are then used and analyzed by the EBF network to provide survival information of the asset. It is shown in the case study that the method slightly underestimates the remaining useful life of an asset which is a desirable result for early maintenance decision and resource planning.

Modelling cell separation during plant organ abscission

A simple mathematical model is presented to describe the cell separation process that plants undertake in order to deliberately shed organs. The focus here is on modelling the production of the enzyme polygalacturonase, which breaks down pectin that provides natural cell-to-cell adhesion in the localised abscission zone. A coupled system of three ordinary differential equations is given for a single cell, and then extended to hold for a layer of cells in the abscission zone. Simple observations are made based on the results of this preliminary model and, furthermore, a number of opportunities for applied mathematicians to make contributions in this subject area are discussed.

A chimeric vitronectin : IGF-I protein supports feeder-cell-free and serum-free culture of human embryonic stem cells

This paper was retracted by the Journal of Stem Cells and Development on February 15, 2013.

Mechanistic investigations into interactions between IGF-I and IGFBPs and their impact on facilitating cell migration on vitronectin

Numerous studies have reported links between insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) and the extra-cellular matrix protein vitronectin (VN). We ourselves have reported that IGF-I binds to VN via IGF-binding proteins (IGFBPs) to stimulate HaCaT and MCF-7 cell migration. Here, we detail the functional evaluation of IGFBP-1, -2, -3, -4 and -6 in the presence and absence of IGF-I and VN. The data presented here, combined with our prior data on IGFBP-5, suggest that IGFBP-3, -4 and -5 are the most effective at stimulating cell migration in combination with IGF-I and VN. In addition, we demonstrate that different regions within IGFBP-3 and -4 are critical for complex formation. Furthermore, we examine whether multi-protein complexes of IGF-I and IGFBPs associated with fibronectin and collagen IV are also able to enhance functional biological responses.