Do prediction markets produce well-calibrated probability forecasts?

This article presents new theoretical and empirical evidence on the forecasting ability of prediction markets. We develop a model that predicts that the time until expiration of a prediction market should negatively affect the accuracy of prices as a forecasting tool in the direction of a ‘favourite/longshot bias’. That is, high-likelihood events are underpriced, and low-likelihood events are over-priced. We confirm this result using a large data set of prediction market transaction prices. Prediction markets are reasonably well calibrated when time to expiration is relatively short, but prices are significantly biased for events farther in the future. When time value of money is considered, the miscalibration can be exploited to earn excess returns only when the trader has a relatively low discount rate.

Social media analytics: an interdisciplinary approach and its implications for information systems

Social Media Analytics is an emerging interdisciplinary research field that aims on combining, extending, and adapting methods for analysis of social media data. On the one hand it can support IS and other research disciplines to answer their research questions and on the other hand it helps to provide architectural designs as well as solution frameworks for new social media-based applications and information systems. The authors suggest that IS should contribute to this field and help to develop and process an interdisciplinary research agenda.

How stable is the well-being of Australian mothers who care for young children with special health care needs?

Ninety-seven percent of children who have special health care needs are cared for by their mothers. These mothers cite that their informal care work can be intrinsically rewarding, however, the role is not without substantial difficulties and consequences. We investigated differences in the health and well-being of mothers whose young children do and do not have special health care needs. Quantitative data are drawn from Growing Up in Australia: The Longitudinal Study of Australian Children. This study employs a matched-case control methodology to compare the experiences of a group of 292 mothers whose children are identified as having long term special health care needs to those mothers whose children are typically developing at two time points; Wave 1 (2004) and Wave 3 (2008). The findings support previous research that mothers of children with special health care needs have poorer general health and mental health than mothers whose children do not have special needs. Mothers of children with special health care needs also perceived life as more difficult. Longitudinally, this study also shows that maternal well-being remains relatively stable during the years when children are transitioning to formal schooling. Implications for policy makers, practitioners and early childhood professionals are discussed.

Understanding the abnormal brain activity in epilepsy as a potential predictor of the onset of an epileptic seizure

The Brain Research Institute (BRI) uses various types of indirect measurements, including EEG and fMRI, to understand and assess brain activity and function. As well as the recovery of generic information about brain function, research also focuses on the utilisation of such data and understanding to study the initiation, dynamics, spread and suppression of epileptic seizures. To assist with the future focussing of this aspect of their research, the BRI asked the MISG 2010 participants to examine how the available EEG and fMRI data and current knowledge about epilepsy should be analysed and interpreted to yield an enhanced understanding about brain activity occurring before, at commencement of, during, and after a seizure. Though the deliberations of the study group were wide ranging in terms of the related matters considered and discussed, considerable progress was made with the following three aspects. (1) The science behind brain activity investigations depends crucially on the quality of the analysis and interpretation of, as well as the recovery of information from, EEG and fMRI measurements. A number of specific methodologies were discussed and formalised, including independent component analysis, principal component analysis, profile monitoring and change point analysis (hidden Markov modelling, time series analysis, discontinuity identification). (2) Even though EEG measurements accurately and very sensitively record the onset of an epileptic event or seizure, they are, from the perspective of understanding the internal initiation and localisation, of limited utility. They only record neuronal activity in the cortical (surface layer) neurons of the brain, which is a direct reflection of the type of electrical activity they have been designed to record. Because fMRI records, through the monitoring of blood flow activity, the location of localised brain activity within the brain, the possibility of combining fMRI measurements with EEG, as a joint inversion activity, was discussed and examined in detail. (3) A major goal for the BRI is to improve understanding about ``when'' (at what time) an epileptic seizure actually commenced before it is identified on an eeg recording, ``where'' the source of this initiation is located in the brain, and ``what'' is the initiator. Because of the general agreement in the literature that, in one way or another, epileptic events and seizures represent abnormal synchronisations of localised and/or global brain activity the modelling of synchronisations was examined in some detail. References C. M. Michel, G. Thut, S. Morand, A. Khateb, A. J. Pegna, R. Grave de Peralta, S. Gonzalez, M. Seeck and T. Landis, Electric source imaging of human brain functions, Brain Res. 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De-Identification of health records using Anonym: Effectiveness and robustness across datasets

Objective Evaluate the effectiveness and robustness of Anonym, a tool for de-identifying free-text health records based on conditional random fields classifiers informed by linguistic and lexical features, as well as features extracted by pattern matching techniques. De-identification of personal health information in electronic health records is essential for the sharing and secondary usage of clinical data. De-identification tools that adapt to different sources of clinical data are attractive as they would require minimal intervention to guarantee high effectiveness. Methods and Materials The effectiveness and robustness of Anonym are evaluated across multiple datasets, including the widely adopted Integrating Biology and the Bedside (i2b2) dataset, used for evaluation in a de-identification challenge. The datasets used here vary in type of health records, source of data, and their quality, with one of the datasets containing optical character recognition errors. Results Anonym identifies and removes up to 96.6% of personal health identifiers (recall) with a precision of up to 98.2% on the i2b2 dataset, outperforming the best system proposed in the i2b2 challenge. The effectiveness of Anonym across datasets is found to depend on the amount of information available for training. Conclusion Findings show that Anonym compares to the best approach from the 2006 i2b2 shared task. It is easy to retrain Anonym with new datasets; if retrained, the system is robust to variations of training size, data type and quality in presence of sufficient training data.

Factors affecting the extraction of absorbed dose information in a 3D polymer gel dosimeter by X ray computed tomography (IAEA-CN-96/122P)

Two sources of uncertainty in the X ray computed tomography imaging of polymer gel dosimeters are investigated in the paper.The first cause is a change in postirradiation density, which is proportional to the computed tomography signal and is associated with a volume change. The second cause of uncertainty is reconstruction noise.A simple technique that increases the residual signal to noise ratio by almost two orders of magnitude is examined.

The importance of social support for students with intellectual disability : an intervention to promote mental health and well-being

Children and adolescents with intellectual disability have higher rates of mental health problems compared with there typically developing peers. Social support has been identified as an important protective factor for psychological well - being. In this paper we discuss the benefits of social support networks, and consider approaches for promoting children’s perceptions of the availability of social support. We describe an evidence-based intervention that has been specially adapted and implemented for students with intellectual disability in school settings. In a randomised controlled trial, the Aussie Optimism Resilience Skills Program was associated with improved perceptions of social support following a 10-week intervention. Educators need to be aware of the increased vulnerability of students with intellectual disability to the development mental health problems and the proactive ways in which they can promote psychological well - being within their classrooms.

Team change climate : a group-level analysis of the relationships among change information and change participation, role stressors, and well-being

We explored whether teams develop shared perceptions regarding the quantity and quality of information and the extent of participation in decision making provided in an environment of continuous change. In addition, we examined whether change climate strength moderated relationships between change climate level and team outcomes. We examined relationships among aggregated change information and change participation and aggregated team outcomes, including two role stressors (i.e., role ambiguity and role overload) and two indicators of well-being (i.e., quality of worklife and distress). Questionnaires were distributed in an Australian law enforcement agency and data were used from 178 teams. Structural equation modelling analyses, controlling for a marker variable, were conducted to examine the main effects of aggregated change information and aggregated change participation on aggregated team outcomes. Results provided support for a model that included method effects due to a marker variable. In this model, change information climate was significantly negatively associated with role ambiguity, role overload, and distress, and significantly positively associated with quality of worklife. Change participation climate was significantly positively associated with quality of worklife. Change climate strength did not moderate relationships among change climate level and team outcomes.

Young and Well CRC: Engaging young people as research partners

This paper presents the outcomes of an international collaboration between researchers and young people in Australia and the United States, using participatory design to engage young people as research partners in the collaborative development of a conceptual framework for the Online WellBeing Center (OWBC), a repository of evidence-based mental health tools focused on mental health promotion and the prevention of mental illness developed as part of Young and Well Cooperative Research Centre. Eighteen participants (nine in Australia and nine in USA) were involved as key partners through a series of participatory design workshops to develop the framework for the OWBC. Key objectives of the collaboration included an increased understanding of: how to recruit young people to be part of an international project team collaborating remotely; how to use new technologies to manage communication and maintain engagement; how to apply principles of participatory research to create a youth informed research project; how to develop an international stakeholder partnership to ensure relevancy in value systems, cultural orientation and project outcomes. Recommendations included guidelines for how others can establish international collaborations that integrate young people as active project participants.

Australia lawyer well-being : workplace demands, resources and the impact of time-billing targets

The purpose of the present study was to examine the types of workplace demands and resources experienced by full-time Australian lawyers, and the prevalence of a range of psychological outcomes. The study further focussed on the impact of time-billing targets on lawyers’ experience of these variables. Participants were 384 full-time Australian lawyers who completed an online questionnaire distributed by their Australian State or Territory Law Society. Analysis revealed that emphasis on profits within the workplace was the highest perceived demand, and the perception of social value in their work was the highest available resource. The results indicated that 37% of participants displayed Moderate to Extremely Severe depressive symptoms, and 35% were a positive screen for hazardous or harmful drinking. A series of three multivariate analyses of variance revealed significant differences between non-billers, low-to-moderate billers and high billers, with high billers experiencing greater demands, fewer resources and poorer psychological outcomes. The practical applications of these results for the legal profession are discussed.

Can the use of quality assurance tools reduce the impact of surgical complications on the well-being of obstetricians and gynaecologists in Australia and New Zealand?

Background While adverse events primarily affect the patient, surgeons involved can also experience considerable distress. Aims The aim of the survey was to assess the impact of complications on the day-to-day life, work and health of Australian and New Zealand obstetricians and gynaecologists and to evaluate existing support systems and coping strategies. Methods A 43-question survey on self-assessment, quality assurance (QA) tools, impact of complications on individuals’ health and relationships, and support available was emailed to fellows, trainees, subspecialists and subspecialty trainees of the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Obstetrics and Gynaecology (RANZCOG). We collected 606 responses from a target population of 2296 (response rate 26.3%). Results When complications occur, sleep was affected of 80%, family and social relationships of 55% and physical health of 48% of respondents. The major sources of support were from colleagues (83%), family (82%) and medical defence organisations (73%), with professional bodies perceived as providing least support. Nearly 80% of respondents felt the need to talk to someone they trust during times of complications. Overall, 100% of respondents used at least one QA tool (62% used two, 26% three and 9% four QA strategies). There were significant differences between respondent groups in use of the QA tools. Conclusions Surgical complications have a significant impact on the well-being of Australian and New Zealand obstetricians and gynaecologists. Existing support comes from colleagues and family, but structured, unbiased support for surgeons from a professional source is urgently warranted.

Validity of accelerometry in ambulatory children and adolescents with cerebral palsy

To evaluate the validity of the ActiGraph accelerometer for the measurement of physical activity intensity in children and adolescents with cerebral palsy (CP) using oxygen uptake (VO 2) as the criterion measure. Thirty children and adolescents with CP (mean age 12.6 ± 2.0 years) wore an ActiGraph 7164 and a Cosmed K4b 2 portable indirect calorimeter during four activities; quiet sitting, comfortable paced walking, brisk paced walking and fast paced walking. VO 2 was converted to METs and activity energy expenditure and classiWed as sedentary, light or moderate-to-vigorous intensity according to the conventions for children. Mean ActiGraph counts min -1 were classiWed as sedentary, light or moderate-to-vigorous (MVPA) intensity using four diVerent sets of cut-points. VO 2 and counts min¡1 increased signiWcantly with increases in walking speed (P < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis indicated that, of the four sets of cut-points evaluated, the Evenson et al. (J Sports Sci 26(14):1557-1565, 2008) cut-points had the highest classiWcation accuracy for sedentary (92%) and MVPA (91%), as well as the second highest classiWcation accuracy for light intensity physical activity (67%). A ROC curve analysis of data from our participants yielded a CP-speciWc cut-point for MVPA that was lower than the Evenson cut-point (2,012 vs. 2,296 counts min¡1), however, the diVerence in classiWcation accuracy was not statistically signiWcant 94% (95% CI = 88.2-97.7%) vs. 91% (95% CI = 83.5-96.5%). In conclusion, among children and adolescents with CP, the ActiGraph is able to diVerentiate between diVerent intensities of walking. The use of the Evenson cut-points will permit the estimation of time spent in MVPA and allows comparisons to be made between activity measured in typically developing adolescents and adolescents with CP. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Why are early maturing girls less active? Links between pubertal development, psychological well-being, and physical activity among girls at ages 11 and 13

Previous research has shown that early maturing girls at age I I have lower subsequent physical activity at age 13 in comparison to later maturing girls. Possible reasons for this association have not been assessed. This study examines girls' psychological response to puberty and their enjoyment of physical activity as intermediary factors linking pubertal maturation and physical activity. Participants included 178 girls who were assessed at age 11, of whom 168 were reassessed at age 13. All participants were non-Hispanic white and resided in the US. Three measures of pubertal development were obtained at age I I including Tanner breast stage, estradiol levels, and mothers' reports of girls' development on the Pubertal Development Scale (PDS). Measures of psychological well-being at ages I I and 13 included depression, global self-worth, perceived athletic competence, maturation fears, and body esteem. At age 13, girls' enjoyment of physical activity was assessed using the Physical Activity Enjoyment Scale and their daily minutes of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were assessed using objective monitoring. Structural Equation Modeling was used to assess direct and indirect pathways between pubertal development at age I I and MVPA at age 13. In addition to a direct effect of pubertal development on MVPA, indirect effects were found for depression, global self-worth and maturity fears controlling for covariates. In each instance, more advanced pubertal development at age I I was associated with lower psychological wellbeing at age 13, which predicted lower enjoyment of physical activity at age 13 and in turn lower MVPA. Results from this study suggest that programs designed to increase physical activity among adolescent girls should address the self-consciousness and discontent that girls' experience with their bodies during puberty, particularly if they mature earlier than their peers, and identify activities or settings that make differences in body shape less conspicuous.

Time pressure and coworker support mediate the curvilinear relationship between age and occupational well-being

As the proportion of older employees in the workforce is growing, researchers have become increasingly interested in the association between age and occupational well-being. The curvilinear nature of relationships between age and job satisfaction and between age and emotional exhaustion is well-established in the literature, with employees in their late 20s to early 40s generally reporting lower levels of occupational well-being than younger and older employees. However, the mechanisms underlying these curvilinear relationships are so far not well understood due to a lack of studies testing mediation effects. Based on an integration of role theory and research from the adult development and career literatures, this study examined time pressure, work–home conflict, and coworker support as mediators of the relationships between age and job satisfaction and between age and emotional exhaustion. Data came from 771 employees between 17 and 74 years of age in the construction industry. Results showed that employees in their late 20s to early 40s had lower job satisfaction and higher emotional exhaustion than younger and older employees. Time pressure and coworker support fully mediated both the U-shaped relationship between age and job satisfaction and the inversely U-shaped relationship between age and emotional exhaustion. These findings suggest that organizational interventions may help increase the relatively low levels of occupational well-being in certain age groups.

An interpretative phenomenological analysis of stress and well-being in Emergency Medical Dispatchers

This study explored the stress and wellbeing of Emergency Medical Dispatchers (EMD) who remotely provide crisis intervention to medical emergencies through telehealth support. Semi-structured interviews with 16 EMDs were conducted and Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis was used to identify themes in the data. These results indicated that despite their physical distance from the crisis scene, EMDs can experience vicarious trauma through acute and cumulative exposure to traumatic incidents and their perceived lack of control which can expound feelings of helplessness. Three superordinate themes of operational stress and trauma, organisational stress, and posttraumatic growth were identified. Practical implications are suggested to enable emergency services organisations to counteract this job related stress and promote more positive mental health outcomes.