Maintenance optimisation of a multi-state series-parallel system considering economic dependence and state-dependent inspection intervals

This paper presents a maintenance optimisation method for a multi-state series-parallel system considering economic dependence and state-dependent inspection intervals. The objective function considered in the paper is the average revenue per unit time calculated based on the semi-regenerative theory and the universal generating function (UGF). A new algorithm using the stochastic ordering is also developed in this paper to reduce the search space of maintenance strategies and to enhance the efficiency of optimisation algorithms. A numerical simulation is presented in the study to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed maintenance strategy and optimisation algorithms. The simulation result reveals that maintenance strategies with opportunistic maintenance and state-dependent inspection intervals are more cost-effective when the influence of economic dependence and inspection cost is significant. The study further demonstrates that the optimisation algorithm proposed in this paper has higher computational efficiency than the commonly employed heuristic algorithms.

One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission : a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

Background: Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. This study explored the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria in the tropical rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China. Methods: Ecological time-series analysis was performed on data collected between 1971 and 1999. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Results: At the time scale of months, the predictors for malaria incidence included: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and fog day frequency. The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence was greater in the cool months than in the hot months. The fog day frequency in October had a positive effect on malaria incidence in May of the following year. At the time scale of years, the annual fog day frequency was the only weather predictor of the annual incidence of malaria. Conclusion: Fog day frequency was for the first time found to be a predictor of malaria incidence in a rain forest area. The one-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission may involve providing water input and maintaining aquatic breeding sites for mosquitoes in vulnerable times when there is little rainfall in the 6-month dry seasons. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of malaria for similar tropical rain forest areas worldwide.

The relationship between unsafe working conditions and workers’ behavior and their impacts on injury severity in the U.S.

Unsafe acts of workers (e.g. misjudgment, inappropriate operation) become the major root causes of construction accidents when they are combined with unsafe working conditions (e.g. working surface conditions, weather) on a construction site. The overarching goal of the research presented in this paper is to explore ways to prevent unsafe acts of workers and reduce the likelihood of construction accidents occurring. The study specifically aims to (1) understand the relationships between human behavior related and working condition related risk factors, (2) identify the significant behavior and condition factors and their impacts on accident types (e.g. struck by/against, caught in/between, falling, shock, inhalation/ingestion/absorption, respiratory failure) and injury severity (e.g. fatality, hospitalized, non-hospitalized), and (3) analyze the fundamental accident-injury relationship on how each accident type contributes to the injury severity. The study reviewed 9,358 accidents which occurred in the U.S. construction industry between 2002 and 2011. The large number of accident samples supported reliable statistical analyses. The analysis identified a total of 17 significant correlations between behavior and condition factors and distinguished key risk factors that highly impacted on the determination of accident types and injury severity. The research outcomes will assist safety managers to control specific unsafe acts of workers by eliminating the associated unsafe working conditions and vice versa. They also can prioritize risk factors and pay more attention to controlling them in order to achieve a safer working environment.

Pore formation during dehydration of polycrystalline gypsum observed and quantified in a time-series synchrotron radiation based X-ray micro-tomography experiment

We conducted an in-situ X-ray micro-computed tomography heating experiment at the Advanced Photon Source (USA) to dehydrate an unconfined 2.3 mm diameter cylinder of Volterra Gypsum. We used a purpose-built X-ray transparent furnace to heat the sample to 388 K for a total of 310 min to acquire a three-dimensional time-series tomography dataset comprising nine time steps. The voxel size of 2.2 μm3 proved sufficient to pinpoint reaction initiation and the organization of drainage architecture in space and time. We observed that dehydration commences across a narrow front, which propagates from the margins to the centre of the sample in more than four hours. The advance of this front can be fitted with a square-root function, implying that the initiation of the reaction in the sample can be described as a diffusion process. Novel parallelized computer codes allow quantifying the geometry of the porosity and the drainage architecture from the very large tomographic datasets (20483 voxels) in unprecedented detail. We determined position, volume, shape and orientation of each resolvable pore and tracked these properties over the duration of the experiment. We found that the pore-size distribution follows a power law. Pores tend to be anisotropic but rarely crack-shaped and have a preferred orientation, likely controlled by a pre-existing fabric in the sample. With on-going dehydration, pores coalesce into a single interconnected pore cluster that is connected to the surface of the sample cylinder and provides an effective drainage pathway. Our observations can be summarized in a model in which gypsum is stabilized by thermal expansion stresses and locally increased pore fluid pressures until the dehydration front approaches to within about 100 μm. Then, the internal stresses are released and dehydration happens efficiently, resulting in new pore space. Pressure release, the production of pores and the advance of the front are coupled in a feedback loop.

Nitrous oxide emissions from subtropical horticultural soils : a time series analysis

Time series regression models were used to examine the influence of environmental factors (soil water content and soil temperature) on the emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) from subtropical soils, by taking into account temporal lagged environmental factors, autoregressive processes, and seasonality for three horticultural crops in a subtropical region of Australia. Fluxes of N2O, soil water content, and soil temperature were determined simultaneously on a weekly basis over a 12-month period in South East Queensland. Annual N2O emissions for soils under mango, pineapple, and custard apple were 1590, 1156, and 2038 g N2O-N/ha, respectively, with most emissions attributed to nitrification. The N2O-N emitted from the pineapple and custard apple crops was equivalent to 0.26 and 2.22%, respectively, of the applied mineral N. The change in soil water content was the key variable for describing N2O emissions at the weekly time-scale, with soil temperature at a lag of 1 month having a significant influence on average N2O emissions (averaged) at the monthly time-scale across the three crops. After accounting for soil temperature and soil water content, both the weekly and monthly time series regression models exhibited significant autocorrelation at lags of 1–2 weeks and 1–2 months, and significant seasonality for weekly N2O emissions for mango crop and for monthly N2O emissions for mango and custard apple crops in this location over this time-frame. Time series regression models can explain a higher percentage of the temporal variation of N2O emission compared with simple regression models using soil temperature and soil water content as drivers. Taking into account seasonal variability and temporal persistence in N2O emissions associated with soil water content and soil temperature may lead to a reduction in the uncertainty surrounding estimates of N2O emissions based on limited sampling effort.

Lynch syndrome-associated breast cancers: clinicopathologic characteristics of a case series from the colon cancer family registry

Purpose: The recognition of breast cancer as a spectrum tumor in Lynch syndrome remains controversial. The aim of this study was to explore features of breast cancers arising in Lynch syndrome families. Experimental Design: This observational study involved 107 cases of breast cancer identified from the Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (Colon CFR) from 90 families in which (a) both breast and colon cancer co-occurred, (b) families met either modified Amsterdam criteria, or had at least one early-onset (<50 years) colorectal cancer, and (c) breast tissue was available within the biospecimen repository for mismatch repair (MMR) testing. Eligibility criteria for enrollment in the Colon CFR are available online. Breast cancers were reviewed by one pathologist. Tumor sections were stained for MLH1, PMS2, MSH2, and MSH6, and underwent microsatellite instability testing. Results: Breast cancer arose in 35 mutation carriers, and of these, 18 (51%) showed immunohistochemical absence of MMR protein corresponding to the MMR gene mutation segregating the family. MMR-deficient breast cancers were more likely to be poorly differentiated (P = 0.005) with a high mitotic index (P = 0.002), steroid hormone receptor–negative (estrogen receptor, P = 0.031; progesterone receptor, P = 0.022), and to have peritumoral lymphocytes (P = 0.015), confluent necrosis (P = 0.002), and growth in solid sheets (P < 0.001) similar to their colorectal counterparts. No difference in age of onset was noted between the MMR-deficient and MMR-intact groups. Conclusions: MMR deficiency was identified in 51% of breast cancers arising in known mutation carriers. Breast cancer therefore may represent a valid tissue option for the detection of MMR deficiency in which spectrum tumors are lacking

Learning hierarchical prototypes of motion time series for interactive systems

Abstract. For interactive systems, recognition, reproduction, and generalization of observed motion data are crucial for successful interaction. In this paper, we present a novel method for analysis of motion data that we refer to as K-OMM-trees. K-OMM-trees combine Ordered Means Models (OMMs) a model-based machine learning approach for time series with an hierarchical analysis technique for very large data sets, the K-tree algorithm. The proposed K-OMM-trees enable unsupervised prototype extraction of motion time series data with hierarchical data representation. After introducing the algorithmic details, we apply the proposed method to a gesture data set that includes substantial inter-class variations. Results from our studies show that K-OMM-trees are able to substantially increase the recognition performance and to learn an inherent data hierarchy with meaningful gesture abstractions.

The fishtown series

Fishtown is a series of mediated animated works which embody artistic conceptions of ambience and explore the interplay between foreground and background. The series draws upon a representation of natural patterns and rhythms in the ambient environment and is produced using a hybrid style of animation process that incorporates motion capture, dynamics and keyframe animation to construct a biomemtic peripheral rhythm. The display of the work is a crucial part of the project, and contributes a considerable amount to the reception of the work. Based on the ambient conceptions defined by Cage, Eno and Bizzocchi, ambient animation should incorporate some form of ambient display. As Eno (1978) states, it should be as ignorable as it is interesting. The ultimate intention is to place the work outside the gallery setting, to provide a more neutral ambient setting for the viewing of the work, and therefore the use of an ambient display is necessary if the work is to be situated in an ambient setting. Craig Walsh is a contemporary artist producing work for large scale projections in ambient settings. Completing Walsh's masterclass in 2011 (Tanawha Arts and Ecology Centre) has been an important factor in arriving at a strategy for the display of the Fishtown series. The most recent work in the Fishtown series was developed during a residency at the Crane Arts studios in Philadelphia USA in August 2012, and is comprised of a screen based animated work, utilizing large scale digital projection. Documentation of this work can be found at the Crane Arts Residency Website: http://cranearts.qcagriffith.com/crane-arts-residency-chris-denaro

Order conditions of stochastic Runge-Kutta methods by B-series

In this paper, general order conditions and a global convergence proof are given for stochastic Runge Kutta methods applied to stochastic ordinary differential equations ( SODEs) of Stratonovich type. This work generalizes the ideas of B-series as applied to deterministic ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to the stochastic case and allows a completely general formalism for constructing high order stochastic methods, either explicit or implicit. Some numerical results will be given to illustrate this theory.

Diurnal temperature range and childhood asthma : a time-series study

BACKGROUND: Hot and cold temperatures have been associated with childhood asthma. However, the relationship between daily temperature variation and childhood asthma is not well understood. This study aimed to examine the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and childhood asthma. METHODS: A Poisson generalized linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the relationship between DTR and emergency department admissions for childhood asthma in Brisbane, from January 1st 2003 to December 31st 2009. RESULTS: There was a statistically significant relationship between DTR and childhood asthma. The DTR effect on childhood asthma increased above a DTR of 10[degree sign]C. The effect of DTR on childhood asthma was the greatest for lag 0--9 days, with a 31% (95% confidence interval: 11% -- 58%) increase of emergency department admissions per 5[degree sign]C increment of DTR. Male children and children aged 5--9 years appeared to be more vulnerable to the DTR effect than others. CONCLUSIONS: Large DTR may trigger childhood asthma. Future measures to control and prevent childhood asthma should include taking temperature variability into account. More protective measures should be taken after a day of DTR above10[degree sign]C.

Licensed to sell : product placement in the James Bond film series

As one of the longest running franchises in cinema history, and with its well-established use of product placements, the James Bond film series provides an ideal framework within which to measure and catalogue the number and types of products used within a particular timeframe. This case study will draw upon extensive content analysis of the James Bond film series in order to chart the evolution of product placement across the franchise's 50 year history.

Shifting global powers and international law : challenges and opportunities [Challenges of Globalisation series]

This book examines the influence of emerging economies on international legal rules, institutions and processes. It describes recent and predicted changes in economic, political and cultural powers, flowing from the growth of emerging economies such as China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Russia, and analyses the influence of these changes on various legal frameworks and norms. Its contributors come from a variety of fields of expertise, including international law, politics, environmental law, human rights, economics and finance. The book begins by providing a broad analysis of the nature of the shifting global dynamic in its historical and contemporary contexts, including analysis of the rise of China as a major economic and political power and the end of the period of United States domination in international affairs. It illustrates the impact of these changes on states’ domestic policies and priorities, as they adapt to a new international dynamic. The authors then offer a range of perspectives on the impact of these changes as they relate to specific regimes and issues, including climate change regulation, collective security, indigenous rights, the rights of women and girls, environmental protection and foreign aid and development. The book provides a fresh and comprehensive analysis of an issue with extensive implications for international law and politics.

Parallel and series configurations of flyback converter for pulsed power applications

Advances in solid-state switches and power electronics techniques have led to the development of compact, efficient and more reliable pulsed power systems. Although, the power rating and operation speed of the new solid-state switches are considerably increased, their low blocking voltage level puts a limits in the pulsed power operation. This paper proposes the advantage of parallel and series configurations of pulsed power modules in obtaining high voltage levels with fast rise time (dv/dt) using only conventional switches. The proposed configuration is based on two flyback modules. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is verified by numerical simulations, and the advantages of each configuration are indicated in comparison with a single module.

Regression and hypothesis tests for multivariate GNSS state time series

A satellite based observation system can continuously or repeatedly generate a user state vector time series that may contain useful information. One typical example is the collection of International GNSS Services (IGS) station daily and weekly combined solutions. Another example is the epoch-by-epoch kinematic position time series of a receiver derived by a GPS real time kinematic (RTK) technique. Although some multivariate analysis techniques have been adopted to assess the noise characteristics of multivariate state time series, statistic testings are limited to univariate time series. After review of frequently used hypotheses test statistics in univariate analysis of GNSS state time series, the paper presents a number of T-squared multivariate analysis statistics for use in the analysis of multivariate GNSS state time series. These T-squared test statistics have taken the correlation between coordinate components into account, which is neglected in univariate analysis. Numerical analysis was conducted with the multi-year time series of an IGS station to schematically demonstrate the results from the multivariate hypothesis testing in comparison with the univariate hypothesis testing results. The results have demonstrated that, in general, the testing for multivariate mean shifts and outliers tends to reject less data samples than the testing for univariate mean shifts and outliers under the same confidence level. It is noted that neither univariate nor multivariate data analysis methods are intended to replace physical analysis. Instead, these should be treated as complementary statistical methods for a prior or posteriori investigations. Physical analysis is necessary subsequently to refine and interpret the results.

Groundwater visualisation system (GVS) : a software framework for integrated display and interrogation of conceptual hydrogeological models, data and time-series animation

Management of groundwater systems requires realistic conceptual hydrogeological models as a framework for numerical simulation modelling, but also for system understanding and communicating this to stakeholders and the broader community. To help overcome these challenges we developed GVS (Groundwater Visualisation System), a stand-alone desktop software package that uses interactive 3D visualisation and animation techniques. The goal was a user-friendly groundwater management tool that could support a range of existing real-world and pre-processed data, both surface and subsurface, including geology and various types of temporal hydrological information. GVS allows these data to be integrated into a single conceptual hydrogeological model. In addition, 3D geological models produced externally using other software packages, can readily be imported into GVS models, as can outputs of simulations (e.g. piezometric surfaces) produced by software such as MODFLOW or FEFLOW. Boreholes can be integrated, showing any down-hole data and properties, including screen information, intersected geology, water level data and water chemistry. Animation is used to display spatial and temporal changes, with time-series data such as rainfall, standing water levels and electrical conductivity, displaying dynamic processes. Time and space variations can be presented using a range of contouring and colour mapping techniques, in addition to interactive plots of time-series parameters. Other types of data, for example, demographics and cultural information, can also be readily incorporated. The GVS software can execute on a standard Windows or Linux-based PC with a minimum of 2 GB RAM, and the model output is easy and inexpensive to distribute, by download or via USB/DVD/CD. Example models are described here for three groundwater systems in Queensland, northeastern Australia: two unconfined alluvial groundwater systems with intensive irrigation, the Lockyer Valley and the upper Condamine Valley, and the Surat Basin, a large sedimentary basin of confined artesian aquifers. This latter example required more detail in the hydrostratigraphy, correlation of formations with drillholes and visualisation of simulation piezometric surfaces. Both alluvial system GVS models were developed during drought conditions to support government strategies to implement groundwater management. The Surat Basin model was industry sponsored research, for coal seam gas groundwater management and community information and consultation. The “virtual” groundwater systems in these 3D GVS models can be interactively interrogated by standard functions, plus production of 2D cross-sections, data selection from the 3D scene, rear end database and plot displays. A unique feature is that GVS allows investigation of time-series data across different display modes, both 2D and 3D. GVS has been used successfully as a tool to enhance community/stakeholder understanding and knowledge of groundwater systems and is of value for training and educational purposes. Projects completed confirm that GVS provides a powerful support to management and decision making, and as a tool for interpretation of groundwater system hydrological processes. A highly effective visualisation output is the production of short videos (e.g. 2–5 min) based on sequences of camera ‘fly-throughs’ and screen images. Further work involves developing support for multi-screen displays and touch-screen technologies, distributed rendering, gestural interaction systems. To highlight the visualisation and animation capability of the GVS software, links to related multimedia hosted online sites are included in the references.