845 resultados para Process uncertainty
Resumo:
The central thesis in the article is that the venture creation process is different for innovative versus imitative ventures. This holds up; the pace of the process differs by type of venture as do, in line with theory-based hypotheses, the effects of certain human capital (HC) and social capital (SC) predictors. Importantly, and somewhat unexpectedly, the theoretically derived models using HC, SC, and certain controls are relatively successful explaining progress in the creation process for the minority of innovative ventures, but achieve very limited success for the imitative majority. This may be due to a rationalistic bias in conventional theorizing and suggests that there is need for considerable theoretical development regarding the important phenomenon of new venture creation processes. Another important result is that the building up of instrumental social capital, which we assess comprehensively and as a time variant construct, is important for making progress with both types of ventures, and increasingly, so as the process progresses. This result corroborates with stronger operationalization and more appropriate analysis method what previously published research has only been able to hint at.
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Professional coaching is a rapidly expanding field with interdisciplinary roots and broad application. However, despite abundant prescriptive literature, research into the process of coaching is minimal. Similarly, although learning is inherently recognised in the process of coaching, the process of learning in coaching is little understood and learning theory makes up only a small part of the evidence-based coaching literature. In this grounded theory study of coaches and their clients, the process of learning in coaching across a range of coaching models is examined and discussed. The findings demonstrate how learning in coaching emerged as a process of discovering, applying and integrating new knowledge, which culminated in a process of developing. This process occurred through eight key coaching processes shared between coaches and clients and combined a multitude of learning theories.
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The research presented in this thesis addresses inherent problems in signaturebased intrusion detection systems (IDSs) operating in heterogeneous environments. The research proposes a solution to address the difficulties associated with multistep attack scenario specification and detection for such environments. The research has focused on two distinct problems: the representation of events derived from heterogeneous sources and multi-step attack specification and detection. The first part of the research investigates the application of an event abstraction model to event logs collected from a heterogeneous environment. The event abstraction model comprises a hierarchy of events derived from different log sources such as system audit data, application logs, captured network traffic, and intrusion detection system alerts. Unlike existing event abstraction models where low-level information may be discarded during the abstraction process, the event abstraction model presented in this work preserves all low-level information as well as providing high-level information in the form of abstract events. The event abstraction model presented in this work was designed independently of any particular IDS and thus may be used by any IDS, intrusion forensic tools, or monitoring tools. The second part of the research investigates the use of unification for multi-step attack scenario specification and detection. Multi-step attack scenarios are hard to specify and detect as they often involve the correlation of events from multiple sources which may be affected by time uncertainty. The unification algorithm provides a simple and straightforward scenario matching mechanism by using variable instantiation where variables represent events as defined in the event abstraction model. The third part of the research looks into the solution to address time uncertainty. Clock synchronisation is crucial for detecting multi-step attack scenarios which involve logs from multiple hosts. Issues involving time uncertainty have been largely neglected by intrusion detection research. The system presented in this research introduces two techniques for addressing time uncertainty issues: clock skew compensation and clock drift modelling using linear regression. An off-line IDS prototype for detecting multi-step attacks has been implemented. The prototype comprises two modules: implementation of the abstract event system architecture (AESA) and of the scenario detection module. The scenario detection module implements our signature language developed based on the Python programming language syntax and the unification-based scenario detection engine. The prototype has been evaluated using a publicly available dataset of real attack traffic and event logs and a synthetic dataset. The distinct features of the public dataset are the fact that it contains multi-step attacks which involve multiple hosts with clock skew and clock drift. These features allow us to demonstrate the application and the advantages of the contributions of this research. All instances of multi-step attacks in the dataset have been correctly identified even though there exists a significant clock skew and drift in the dataset. Future work identified by this research would be to develop a refined unification algorithm suitable for processing streams of events to enable an on-line detection. In terms of time uncertainty, identified future work would be to develop mechanisms which allows automatic clock skew and clock drift identification and correction. The immediate application of the research presented in this thesis is the framework of an off-line IDS which processes events from heterogeneous sources using abstraction and which can detect multi-step attack scenarios which may involve time uncertainty.
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Qualitative research methods require transparency to ensure the ‘trustworthiness’ of the data analysis. The intricate processes of organizing, coding and analyzing the data are often rendered invisible in the presentation of the research findings, which requires a ‘leap of faith’ for the reader. Computer assisted data analysis software can be used to make the research process more transparent, without sacrificing rich, interpretive analysis by the researcher. This article describes in detail how one software package was used in a poststructural study to link and code multiple forms of data to four research questions for fine-grained analysis. This description will be useful for researchers seeking to use qualitative data analysis software as an analytic tool.
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The objective of the project “Value Alignment Process for Project Delivery” is to provide a catalyst and tools for reform in the building and construction industry to transform business-as-usual performance into exceptional performance. The outcomes of this project will be beneficial to not only the construction industry, but to the community as a whole because a more sophisticated industry can deliver more effective use of assets, financing, operating and maintenance of facilities to suit the community’s needs. The research project consists of a study into best practice project delivery and the development of a suite of products, resources and services to guide project teams towards the best approach for a specific project. These resources will be focused on promoting the principles that underlie best practice project delivery, rather than on identifying a particular delivery system. The need for such tools and resources becomes more and more acute as the environment within which the construction industry operates becomes more and more complex, and as business and political imperatives shift to encompass or represent diverse stakeholder interests. To this end, this literature review looks at why it is essential to achieve transformation in the Australian construction industry in the context of its importance to the Australian economy. It seeks to investigate the concepts of ‘alignment’ and value’ as they pertain to construction industry processes and relationships. It comprehensively reviews drivers of project excellence and best practice project delivery principles and looks at how clients approach selection of project delivery systems. It critiques existing project delivery strategies and gives an overview of recent best practice initiatives. The literature review represents a milestone against the Project Agreement and forms a foundation document for this research project
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An important aspect of designing any product is validation. Virtual design process (VDP) is an alternative to hardware prototyping in which analysis of designs can be done without manufacturing physical samples. In recent years, VDP have been generated either for animation or filming applications. This paper proposes a virtual reality design process model on one of the applications when used as a validation tool. This technique is used to generate a complete design guideline and validation tool of product design. To support the design process of a product, a virtual environment and VDP method were developed that supports validation and an initial design cycle performed by a designer. The product model car carrier is used as illustration for which virtual design was generated. The loading and unloading sequence of the model for the prototype was generated using automated reasoning techniques and was completed by interactively animating the product in the virtual environment before complete design was built. By using the VDP process critical issues like loading, unloading, Australian Design rules (ADR) and clearance analysis were done. The process would save time, money in physical sampling and to large extent in complete math generation. Since only schematic models are required, it saves time in math modelling and handling of bigger size assemblies due to complexity of the models. This extension of VDP process for design evaluation is unique and was developed, implemented successfully. In this paper a Toll logistics and J Smith and Sons car carrier which is developed under author’s responsibility has been used to illustrate our approach of generating design validation via VDP.
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This document provides a review of international and national practices in investment decision support tools in road asset management. Efforts were concentrated on identifying analytic frameworks, evaluation methodologies and criteria adopted by current tools. Emphasis was also given to how current approaches support Triple Bottom Line decision-making. Benefit Cost Analysis and Multiple Criteria Analysis are principle methodologies in supporting decision-making in Road Asset Management. The complexity of the applications shows significant differences in international practices. There is continuing discussion amongst practitioners and researchers regarding to which one is more appropriate in supporting decision-making. It is suggested that the two approaches should be regarded as complementary instead of competitive means. Multiple Criteria Analysis may be particularly helpful in early stages of project development, say strategic planning. Benefit Cost Analysis is used most widely for project prioritisation and selecting the final project from amongst a set of alternatives. Benefit Cost Analysis approach is useful tool for investment decision-making from an economic perspective. An extension of the approach, which includes social and environmental externalities, is currently used in supporting Triple Bottom Line decision-making in the road sector. However, efforts should be given to several issues in the applications. First of all, there is a need to reach a degree of commonality on considering social and environmental externalities, which may be achieved by aggregating the best practices. At different decision-making level, the detail of consideration of the externalities should be different. It is intended to develop a generic framework to coordinate the range of existing practices. The standard framework will also be helpful in reducing double counting, which appears in some current practices. Cautions should also be given to the methods of determining the value of social and environmental externalities. A number of methods, such as market price, resource costs and Willingness to Pay, are found in the review. The use of unreasonable monetisation methods in some cases has discredited Benefit Cost Analysis in the eyes of decision makers and the public. Some social externalities, such as employment and regional economic impacts, are generally omitted in current practices. This is due to the lack of information and credible models. It may be appropriate to consider these externalities in qualitative forms in a Multiple Criteria Analysis. Consensus has been reached in considering noise and air pollution in international practices. However, Australia practices generally omitted these externalities. Equity is an important consideration in Road Asset Management. The considerations are either between regions, or social groups, such as income, age, gender, disable, etc. In current practice, there is not a well developed quantitative measure for equity issues. More research is needed to target this issue. Although Multiple Criteria Analysis has been used for decades, there is not a generally accepted framework in the choice of modelling methods and various externalities. The result is that different analysts are unlikely to reach consistent conclusions about a policy measure. In current practices, some favour using methods which are able to prioritise alternatives, such as Goal Programming, Goal Achievement Matrix, Analytic Hierarchy Process. The others just present various impacts to decision-makers to characterise the projects. Weighting and scoring system are critical in most Multiple Criteria Analysis. However, the processes of assessing weights and scores were criticised as highly arbitrary and subjective. It is essential that the process should be as transparent as possible. Obtaining weights and scores by consulting local communities is a common practice, but is likely to result in bias towards local interests. Interactive approach has the advantage in helping decision-makers elaborating their preferences. However, computation burden may result in lose of interests of decision-makers during the solution process of a large-scale problem, say a large state road network. Current practices tend to use cardinal or ordinal scales in measure in non-monetised externalities. Distorted valuations can occur where variables measured in physical units, are converted to scales. For example, decibels of noise converts to a scale of -4 to +4 with a linear transformation, the difference between 3 and 4 represents a far greater increase in discomfort to people than the increase from 0 to 1. It is suggested to assign different weights to individual score. Due to overlapped goals, the problem of double counting also appears in some of Multiple Criteria Analysis. The situation can be improved by carefully selecting and defining investment goals and criteria. Other issues, such as the treatment of time effect, incorporating risk and uncertainty, have been given scant attention in current practices. This report suggested establishing a common analytic framework to deal with these issues.
Resumo:
This document provides the findings of an international review of investment decision-making practices in road asset management. Efforts were concentrated on identifying the strategic objectives of agencies in road asset management, establishing and understanding criteria different organisations adopted and ascertaining the exact methodologies used by different countries and international organisations. Road assets are powerful drivers of economic development and social equity. They also have significant impacts on the natural and man-made environment. The traditional definition of asset management is “A systematic process of maintaining, upgrading and operating physical assets cost effectively. It combines engineering principles with sound business practices and economic theory and it provides tools to facilitate a more organised, logical approach to decision-making” (US Dept. of Transportation, 1999). In recent years, the concept has been broadened to cover the complexity of decision making, based on a wider variety of policy considerations as well as social and environmental issues rather than is covered by Benefit-Cost analysis and pure technical considerations. Current international practices are summarised in table 2. It was evident that Engineering-economic analysis methods are well advanced to support decision-making. A range of tools available supports performance predicting of road assets and associated cost/benefit in technical context. The need for considering triple plus one bottom line of social, environmental and economic as well as political factors in decision-making is well understood by road agencies around the world. The techniques used to incorporate these however, are limited. Most countries adopt a scoring method, a goal achievement matrix or information collected from surveys. The greater uncertainty associated with these non-quantitative factors has generally not been taken into consideration. There is a gap between the capacities of the decision-making support systems and the requirements from decision-makers to make more rational and transparent decisions. The challenges faced in developing an integrated decision making framework are both procedural and conceptual. In operational terms, the framework should be easy to be understood and employed. In philosophical terms, the framework should be able to deal with challenging issues, such as uncertainty, time frame, network effects, model changes, while integrating cost and non-cost values into the evaluation. The choice of evaluation techniques depends on the feature of the problem at hand, on the aims of the analysis, and on the underlying information base At different management levels, the complexity in considering social, environmental, economic and political factor in decision-making is different. At higher the strategic planning level, more non-cost factors are involved. The complexity also varies based on the scope of the investment proposals. Road agencies traditionally place less emphasis on evaluation of maintenance works. In some cases, social equity, safety, environmental issues have been used in maintenance project selection. However, there is not a common base for the applications.
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The Study Process Questionnaire (Biggs, 1987) has been widely used in studies investigating learning behaviours in tertiary education. Many of the studies that have used the instrument have investigated the construct validity of the SPQ using a variety of factor analytic methods and techniques in an atheoretical way. Contrary to this method, Burnett and Dart (1997) argued that the hypothesised structure of a scale should be used when assessing the construct validity of an existing instrument. This study investigated the factor structure of the SPQ using a theoretical approach and found strong support for the three approaches to learning structure of the instrument.
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In construction, inter-organisational relationships are of the highest importance. Ethical practice and behaviour is a means for improving inter-organisational relationships by providing a clear understanding of the rights and obligations of all parties, improving productivity, affecting long-term business dealings, and influencing quality, time and costs. Therefore, the ability to build sustainable relationships grounded in ethical practice is important to the construction industry. Establishing ethical standards at the beginning of the procurement process provides an ethical platform for the project life cycle and the relationship between procurers and contractors. Therefore it is important to determine what the ethical issues are in the Australian construction industry from members of the industry themselves; including clients. This “bottom up” approach is not a particularly new concept. Ever since the Gyles Royal Commission in 1992 there has been a considerable effort by government agencies to develop policies to improve the ethical behaviour of the industry.
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This paper deals with the problem of using the data mining models in a real-world situation where the user can not provide all the inputs with which the predictive model is built. A learning system framework, Query Based Learning System (QBLS), is developed for improving the performance of the predictive models in practice where not all inputs are available for querying to the system. The automatic feature selection algorithm called Query Based Feature Selection (QBFS) is developed for selecting features to obtain a balance between the relative minimum subset of features and the relative maximum classification accuracy. Performance of the QBLS system and the QBFS algorithm is successfully demonstrated with a real-world application
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A curriculum for a university-level course called Business Process Modeling is presented in order to provide guidance for the increasing number of institutions who are currently developing such contents. The course caters to undergraduate and post graduate students. Its content is drawn from recent research, industry practice, and established teaching material, and teaches ways of specifying business processes for the analysis and design of process-aware information systems. The teaching approach is a blend of lectures and classroom exercises with innovative case studies, as well as reviews of research material. Students are asked to conceptualize, analyze, and articulate real life process scenarios. Tutorials and cheat sheets assist with the learning experience. Course evaluations from 40 students suggest the adequacy of the teaching approach. Specifically, evaluations show a high degree of satisfaction with course relevance, content presentation, and teaching approach.
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The ability to assess a commercial building for its impact on the environment at the earliest stage of design is a goal which is achievable by integrating several approaches into a single procedure directly from the 3D CAD representation. Such an approach enables building design professionals to make informed decisions on the environmental impact of building and its alternatives during the design development stage instead of at the post-design stage where options become limited. The indicators of interest are those which relate to consumption of resources and energy, contributions to pollution of air, water and soil, and impacts on the health and wellbeing of people in the built environment as a result of constructing and operating buildings. 3D object-oriented CAD files contain a wealth of building information which can be interrogated for details required for analysis of the performance of a design. The quantities of all components in the building can be automatically obtained from the 3D CAD objects and their constituent materials identified to calculate a complete list of the amounts of all building products such as concrete, steel, timber, plastic etc. When this information is combined with a life cycle inventory database, key internationally recognised environmental indicators can be estimated. Such a fully integrated tool known as LCADesign has been created for automated ecoefficiency assessment of commercial buildings direct from 3D CAD. This paper outlines the key features of LCADesign and its application to environmental assessment of commercial buildings.
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This paper proposes a novel relative entropy rate (RER) based approach for multiple HMM (MHMM) approximation of a class of discrete-time uncertain processes. Under different uncertainty assumptions, the model design problem is posed either as a min-max optimisation problem or stochastic minimisation problem on the RER between joint laws describing the state and output processes (rather than the more usual RER between output processes). A suitable filter is proposed for which performance results are established which bound conditional mean estimation performance and show that estimation performance improves as the RER is reduced. These filter consistency and convergence bounds are the first results characterising multiple HMM approximation performance and suggest that joint RER concepts provide a useful model selection criteria. The proposed model design process and MHMM filter are demonstrated on an important image processing dim-target detection problem.
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Collaborative networks have come to form a large part of the public sector’s strategy to address ongoing and often complex social problems. The relational power of networks, with its emphasis on trust, reciprocity and mutuality provides the mechanism to integrate previously dispersed and even competitive entities into a collective venture(Agranoff 2003; Agranoff and McGuire 2003; Mandell 1994; Mandell and Harrington 1999). It is argued that the refocusing of a single body of effort to a collective contributes to reducing duplication and overlap of services, maximizes increasingly scarce resources and contributes to solving intractable or 'wicked’problems (Clarke and Stewart 1997). Given the current proliferation of collaborative networks and the fact that they are likely to continue for some time, concerns with the management and leadership of such arrangements for optimal outcomes are increasingly relevant. This is especially important for public sector managers who are used to working in a top-down, hierarchical manner. While the management of networks (Agranoff and McGuire 2001, 2003), including collaborative or complex networks (Kickert et al. 1997; Koppenjan and Klijn 2004), has been the subject of considerable attention, there has been much less explicit discussion on leadership approaches in this context. It is argued in this chapter that the traditional use of the terms ‘leader’ or ‘leadership’ does not apply to collaborative networks. There are no ‘followers’ in collaborative networks or supervisor-subordinate relations. Instead there are equal, horizontal relationships that are focused on delivering systems change. In this way the emergent organizational forms such as collaborative networks challenge older models of leadership. However despite the questionable relevance of old leadership styles to the contemporary work environment, no clear alternative has come along to take its place.