Hierarchical models for 2D presence/absence data having ambiguous zeroes: With a biogeographical case study on dingo behaviour

This dissertation is primarily an applied statistical modelling investigation, motivated by a case study comprising real data and real questions. Theoretical questions on modelling and computation of normalization constants arose from pursuit of these data analytic questions. The essence of the thesis can be described as follows. Consider binary data observed on a two-dimensional lattice. A common problem with such data is the ambiguity of zeroes recorded. These may represent zero response given some threshold (presence) or that the threshold has not been triggered (absence). Suppose that the researcher wishes to estimate the effects of covariates on the binary responses, whilst taking into account underlying spatial variation, which is itself of some interest. This situation arises in many contexts and the dingo, cypress and toad case studies described in the motivation chapter are examples of this. Two main approaches to modelling and inference are investigated in this thesis. The first is frequentist and based on generalized linear models, with spatial variation modelled by using a block structure or by smoothing the residuals spatially. The EM algorithm can be used to obtain point estimates, coupled with bootstrapping or asymptotic MLE estimates for standard errors. The second approach is Bayesian and based on a three- or four-tier hierarchical model, comprising a logistic regression with covariates for the data layer, a binary Markov Random field (MRF) for the underlying spatial process, and suitable priors for parameters in these main models. The three-parameter autologistic model is a particular MRF of interest. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprising hybrid Metropolis/Gibbs samplers is suitable for computation in this situation. Model performance can be gauged by MCMC diagnostics. Model choice can be assessed by incorporating another tier in the modelling hierarchy. This requires evaluation of a normalization constant, a notoriously difficult problem. Difficulty with estimating the normalization constant for the MRF can be overcome by using a path integral approach, although this is a highly computationally intensive method. Different methods of estimating ratios of normalization constants (N Cs) are investigated, including importance sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC), dependent Monte Carlo based on MCMC simulations (MCMC), and reverse logistic regression (RLR). I develop an idea present though not fully developed in the literature, and propose the Integrated mean canonical statistic (IMCS) method for estimating log NC ratios for binary MRFs. The IMCS method falls within the framework of the newly identified path sampling methods of Gelman & Meng (1998) and outperforms ISMC, MCMC and RLR. It also does not rely on simplifying assumptions, such as ignoring spatio-temporal dependence in the process. A thorough investigation is made of the application of IMCS to the three-parameter Autologistic model. This work introduces background computations required for the full implementation of the four-tier model in Chapter 7. Two different extensions of the three-tier model to a four-tier version are investigated. The first extension incorporates temporal dependence in the underlying spatio-temporal process. The second extensions allows the successes and failures in the data layer to depend on time. The MCMC computational method is extended to incorporate the extra layer. A major contribution of the thesis is the development of a fully Bayesian approach to inference for these hierarchical models for the first time. Note: The author of this thesis has agreed to make it open access but invites people downloading the thesis to send her an email via the 'Contact Author' function.

Static shunt and series compensations of an SMIB system using flying capacitor multilevel inverter

The flying capacitor multilevel inverter (FCMLI) is a multiple voltage level inverter topology intended for high-power and high-voltage operations at low distortion. It uses capacitors, called flying capacitors, to clamp the voltage across the power semiconductor devices. A method for controlling the FCMLI is proposed which ensures that the flying capacitor voltages remain nearly constant using the preferential charging and discharging of these capacitors. A static synchronous compensator (STATCOM) and a static synchronous series compensator (SSSC) based on five-level flying capacitor inverters are proposed. Control schemes for both the FACTS controllers are developed and verified in terms of voltage control, power flow control, and power oscillation damping when installed in a single-machine infinite bus (SMIB) system. Simulation studies are performed using PSCAD/EMTDC to validate the efficacy of the control scheme and the FCMLI-based flexible alternating current transmission system (FACTS) controllers.

Design of a static thruster for microair vehicle rotorcraft

This paper presents a case study of a design for a complete microair vehicle thruster. Fixed-pitch small-scale rotors, brushless motors, lithium-polymer cells, and embedded control are combined to produce a mechanically simple, high-performance thruster with potentially high reliability. The custom rotor design requires a balance between manufacturing simplicity and rigidity of a blade versus its aerodynamic performance. An iterative steady-state aeroelastic simulator is used for holistic blade design. The aerodynamic load disturbances of the rotor-motor system in normal conditions are experimentally characterized. The motors require fast dynamic response for authoritative vehicle flight control. We detail a dynamic compensator that achieves satisfactory closed-loop response time. The experimental rotor-motor plant displayed satisfactory thrust performance and dynamic response.

The work of nurse practitioners : a national work sampling study

Aim: This paper is a report of a study of variations in the pattern of nurse practitioner work in a range of service fields and geographical locations, across direct patient care, indirect patient care and service-related activities. Background. The nurse practitioner role has been implemented internationally as a service reform model to improve the access and timeliness of health care. There is a substantial body of research into the nurse practitioner role and service outcomes, but scant information on the pattern of nurse practitioner work and how this is influenced by different service models. --------- Methods: We used work sampling methods. Data were collected between July 2008 and January 2009. Observations were recorded from a random sample of 30 nurse practitioners at 10-minute intervals in 2-hour blocks randomly generated to cover two weeks of work time from a sampling frame of six weeks. --------- Results: A total of 12,189 individual observations were conducted with nurse practitioners across Australia. Thirty individual activities were identified as describing nurse practitioner work, and these were distributed across three categories. Direct care accounted for 36.1% of how nurse practitioners spend their time, indirect care accounted for 32.2% and service-related activities made up 31.9%. --------- Conclusion. These findings provide useful baseline data for evaluation of nurse practitioner positions and the service effect of these positions. However, the study also raises questions about the best use of nurse practitioner time and the influences of barriers to and facilitators of this model of service innovation.

A secure framework and related protocols for ubiquitous access to electronic health records using Java sim cards

Ubiquitous access to patient medical records is an important aspect of caring for patient safety. Unavailability of sufficient medical information at the point-ofcare could possibly lead to a fatality. The U.S. Institute of Medicine has reported that between 44,000 and 98,000 people die each year due to medical errors, such as incorrect medication dosages, due to poor legibility in manual records, or delays in consolidating needed information to discern the proper intervention. In this research we propose employing emergent technologies such as Java SIM Cards (JSC), Smart Phones (SP), Next Generation Networks (NGN), Near Field Communications (NFC), Public Key Infrastructure (PKI), and Biometric Identification to develop a secure framework and related protocols for ubiquitous access to Electronic Health Records (EHR). A partial EHR contained within a JSC can be used at the point-of-care in order to help quick diagnosis of a patient’s problems. The full EHR can be accessed from an Electronic Health Records Centre (EHRC) when time and network availability permit. Moreover, this framework and related protocols enable patients to give their explicit consent to a doctor to access their personal medical data, by using their Smart Phone, when the doctor needs to see or update the patient’s medical information during an examination. Also our proposed solution would give the power to patients to modify the Access Control List (ACL) related to their EHRs and view their EHRs through their Smart Phone. Currently, very limited research has been done on using JSCs and similar technologies as a portable repository of EHRs or on the specific security issues that are likely to arise when JSCs are used with ubiquitous access to EHRs. Previous research is concerned with using Medicare cards, a kind of Smart Card, as a repository of medical information at the patient point-of-care. However, this imposes some limitations on the patient’s emergency medical care, including the inability to detect the patient’s location, to call and send information to an emergency room automatically, and to interact with the patient in order to get consent. The aim of our framework and related protocols is to overcome these limitations by taking advantage of the SIM card and the technologies mentioned above. Briefly, our framework and related protocols will offer the full benefits of accessing an up-to-date, precise, and comprehensive medical history of a patient, whilst its mobility will provide ubiquitous access to medical and patient information everywhere it is needed. The objective of our framework and related protocols is to automate interactions between patients, healthcare providers and insurance organisations, increase patient safety, improve quality of care, and reduce the costs.

A secure framework and related protocols for ubiquitous access to electronic health records using Java SIM cards

Ubiquitous access to patient medical records is an important aspect of caring for patient safety. Unavailability of sufficient medical information at the patient point-of-care could possibly lead to a fatality. In this paper we propose employing emergent technologies such as Java SIM Cards (JSC),Smart Phones (SP), Next Generation Networks (NGN), Near Field Communications (NFC), Public Key Infrastructure (PKI), and Biometric Identification to develop a secure framework and related protocols for ubiquitous access to Electronic Health Records (EHRs). A partial EHR contained within a JSC can be used at the patient point-of-care in order to help quick diagnosis of a patient’s problems. The full EHR can be accessed from an Electronic Healthcare Records Centre (EHRC).

Optimal track access rights allocation for agent negotiation in an open railway market

In open railway access markets, a train service provider (TSP) negotiates with an infrastructure provider (IP) for track access rights. This negotiation has been modeled by a multi-agent system (MAS) in which the IP and TSP are represented by separate software agents. One task of the IP agent is to generate feasible (and preferably optimal) track access rights, subject to the constraints submitted by the TSP agent. This paper formulates an IP-TSP transaction and proposes a branch-and-bound algorithm for the IP agent to identify the optimal track access rights. Empirical simulation results show that the model is able to emulate rational agent behaviors. The simulation results also show good consistency between timetables attained from the proposed methods and those derived by the scheduling principles adopted in practice.

Transit users' route-choice modelling in transit assignment : a review

This paper reviews the main studies on transit users’ route choice in thecontext of transit assignment. The studies are categorized into three groups: static transit assignment, within-day dynamic transit assignment, and emerging approaches. The motivations and behavioural assumptions of these approaches are re-examined. The first group includes shortest-path heuristics in all-or-nothing assignment, random utility maximization route-choice models in stochastic assignment, and user equilibrium based assignment. The second group covers within-day dynamics in transit users’ route choice, transit network formulations, and dynamic transit assignment. The third group introduces the emerging studies on behavioural complexities, day-to-day dynamics, and real-time dynamics in transit users’ route choice. Future research directions are also discussed.