Addressing issues in sparseness, ecological bias and formulation of the adjacency matrix in Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of disease counts

The main objective of this PhD was to further develop Bayesian spatio-temporal models (specifically the Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) class of models), for the analysis of sparse disease outcomes such as birth defects. The motivation for the thesis arose from problems encountered when analyzing a large birth defect registry in New South Wales. The specific components and related research objectives of the thesis were developed from gaps in the literature on current formulations of the CAR model, and health service planning requirements. Data from a large probabilistically-linked database from 1990 to 2004, consisting of fields from two separate registries: the Birth Defect Registry (BDR) and Midwives Data Collection (MDC) were used in the analyses in this thesis. The main objective was split into smaller goals. The first goal was to determine how the specification of the neighbourhood weight matrix will affect the smoothing properties of the CAR model, and this is the focus of chapter 6. Secondly, I hoped to evaluate the usefulness of incorporating a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) component as well as a shared-component model in terms of modeling a sparse outcome, and this is carried out in chapter 7. The third goal was to identify optimal sampling and sample size schemes designed to select individual level data for a hybrid ecological spatial model, and this is done in chapter 8. Finally, I wanted to put together the earlier improvements to the CAR model, and along with demographic projections, provide forecasts for birth defects at the SLA level. Chapter 9 describes how this is done. For the first objective, I examined a series of neighbourhood weight matrices, and showed how smoothing the relative risk estimates according to similarity by an important covariate (i.e. maternal age) helped improve the model’s ability to recover the underlying risk, as compared to the traditional adjacency (specifically the Queen) method of applying weights. Next, to address the sparseness and excess zeros commonly encountered in the analysis of rare outcomes such as birth defects, I compared a few models, including an extension of the usual Poisson model to encompass excess zeros in the data. This was achieved via a mixture model, which also encompassed the shared component model to improve on the estimation of sparse counts through borrowing strength across a shared component (e.g. latent risk factor/s) with the referent outcome (caesarean section was used in this example). Using the Deviance Information Criteria (DIC), I showed how the proposed model performed better than the usual models, but only when both outcomes shared a strong spatial correlation. The next objective involved identifying the optimal sampling and sample size strategy for incorporating individual-level data with areal covariates in a hybrid study design. I performed extensive simulation studies, evaluating thirteen different sampling schemes along with variations in sample size. This was done in the context of an ecological regression model that incorporated spatial correlation in the outcomes, as well as accommodating both individual and areal measures of covariates. Using the Average Mean Squared Error (AMSE), I showed how a simple random sample of 20% of the SLAs, followed by selecting all cases in the SLAs chosen, along with an equal number of controls, provided the lowest AMSE. The final objective involved combining the improved spatio-temporal CAR model with population (i.e. women) forecasts, to provide 30-year annual estimates of birth defects at the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level in New South Wales, Australia. The projections were illustrated using sixteen different SLAs, representing the various areal measures of socio-economic status and remoteness. A sensitivity analysis of the assumptions used in the projection was also undertaken. By the end of the thesis, I will show how challenges in the spatial analysis of rare diseases such as birth defects can be addressed, by specifically formulating the neighbourhood weight matrix to smooth according to a key covariate (i.e. maternal age), incorporating a ZIP component to model excess zeros in outcomes and borrowing strength from a referent outcome (i.e. caesarean counts). An efficient strategy to sample individual-level data and sample size considerations for rare disease will also be presented. Finally, projections in birth defect categories at the SLA level will be made.

ePortfolio use by university students in Australia: Informing excellence in policy and practice

In mid 2007, the Australian Learning and Teaching Council (ALTC), formerly the Carrick Institute for Learning and Teaching in Higher Education, commissioned an intensive research project to examine the use of ePortfolios by university students in Australia. The project was awarded to a consortium of four universities: Queensland University of Technology as lead institution, The University of Melbourne, University of New England and University of Wollongong.---------- The overarching aim of the research project, which was given the working title of the Australian ePortfolio Project, was to examine the current levels of ePortfolio practice in Australian higher education. The principal project goals sought to provide an overview and analysis of the national and international ePortfolio contexts, document the types of ePortfolios used in Australian higher education, examine the relationship with the National Diploma Supplement project funded by the Federal government, identify any significant issues relating to ePortfolio implementation, and offer guidance about future opportunities for ePortfolio development. The research findings revealed that there was a high level of interest in the use of ePortfolios in the context of higher education, particularly in terms of the potential to help students become reflective learners who are conscious of their personal and professional strengths and weaknesses, as well as to make their existing and developing skills more explicit. There were some good examples of early adoption in different institutions, although this tended to be distributed across the sector. The greatest use of ePortfolios was recorded in coursework programs, rather than in research programs, with implementation generally reflecting subject-specific or program-based activity, as opposed to faculty- or university-wide activity. Accordingly, responsibility for implementation frequently rested with the individual teaching unit, although an alternative centralised model of coordination by ICT services, careers and employment or teaching and learning support was beginning to emerge. The project report concludes with a series of recommendations to guide the process, drawing on the need for open dialogue and effective collaboration between the stakeholders across the range of contexts: government policy, international technical standards, academic policy, and learning and teaching research and practice.

ePortfolio use by university students in Australia : Developing a sustainable community of practice

This report documents Stage Two of the Australian ePortfolio Project (AeP2), to specifically explore the current scope of national and international ePortfolio communities of practice in order to identify the factors that have contributed to their success and sustainability. The study has built on Stage One of the Australian ePortfolio Project (Hallam, Harper, McCowan, Hauville, McAllister, & Creagh, 2008), which outlined the broad range of issues and challenges, as well as significant opportunities, that faced the higher education sector in terms of ePortfolio practice, to determine how the emergent community of ePortfolio researchers and practitioners in Australia might be advanced. ---------- The overarching aims of this project were to focus on building the Australian community of practice through an online forum and further symposium activities. Through the research activities the project sought to generate the following major outcomes: develop a forum within the ALTC Exchange to support an ePortfolio community of practice; develop strategies to encourage interest in and engagement with community of practice activities; develop and promote resources to support the diverse stakeholders in ePortfolio practice; collaborate in the establishment of a cross-sector ePortfolio community of practice; host a second Australian ePortfolio Symposium (AeP2) to disseminate the findings from the Australian ePortfolio Project, to explore innovative practice in ePortfolio use in higher education, to articulate policy developments, and to stimulate discussion on international ePortfolio issues; host an associated trade display as a forum for strengthening the higher education sector’s understanding of the features and functionality of ePortfolio platforms; develop resources to support an ePortfolio symposium model that may be adopted for future events. ----------- The project activities encompassed a survey of stakeholders, a program of semi-structured interviews with community managers and a series of case studies depicting successful ePortfolio communities. The survey of ePortfolio practitioners sought to determine the potential value of an ePortfolio CoP, the preferred focus for and the desired features of such a community, as well as the options for the technical and social architecture of an online forum. Through the semi-structured interviews it was possible to examine current examples of CoP activity, to identify the critical success factors and the challenges faced by individual ePortfolio CoPs, so that the attributes of good practice could be presented. The data collected in the interviews contributed to the development of 14 case studies, which have been beneficial in illustrating the diverse nature of CoPs in Australia and overseas.----------- The report presents a rich picture of national and international ePortfolio communities of practice, with an examination of the factors that have contributed to their success and sustainability.

Farm it right : the sustainable farming simulation

Farm It Right is an innovative creative work that simulates sustainable farming techniques using ecological models prepared by academics at Bradford University (School of Life Sciences). This interactive work simulates the farming conditions and options of our ancestors and demonstrates the direct impact their actions had on their environment and on the ’future of their cultures’ (Schmidt 2008). Specifically, the simulation allows users to explore and experiment with the complex relationships between environmental factors and human decision making within the harsh conditions of an early (9th century) Nordic farm. The simulation interface displays both statistical and graphical feedback in response to the users selections regarding animal reproduction rates, shelter provisions, food supplies etc. as well as demonstrating resulting impacts to soil erosion, water supply, animal population sizes etc.---------- 'Farm It Right' is now used at Bradford University (School of Life Sciences) as a dynamic e-Learning resource for incorporating environmental archaeology with sustainable development education, improving the engagement with complex data and the appreciation of human impacts on the environment and the future of their cultures. 'Farm It Right' is also demonstrated as an exemplar case study for interaction design students at Queensland University of Technology.

Up the e-learning curve : ensuring quality online education within an Australian university

The paper describes the implementation of a project within Australian Catholic University designed to launch the Faculties into online education in a manner which ensured quality in all aspects of the teaching-learning experiences of academics and students. Key elements of the strategic approach adopted by the project leaders, including the involvement of a specialist commercial provider of web-based delivery systems as a partner in the project, mechanisms to support the initiative through the first stages, careful choice of the programs offered online, and staff development matched to the emerging needs of those involved in the teaching of courses, are described. Challenges encountered in the implementation process, and the factors which assisted in overcoming these problems are identified. The paper draws upon this experience to raise some important issues relevant to the successful introduction of online education as an integral component of the teaching repertoire of Faculties.

Introduction

This is not a book about the perils of global warming and its impact on children, although climate change provides an impetus. Nor is it a response to environmental issues that shifts responsibilities from adults to children, asking them to fix what we leave behind. Instead, it is a book of positive ideas and actions that shows what early childhood educational communities can do when children, teachers and parents work together to address, arguably, one of the most serious issues of our time. It is about what early childhood education – and specifically, early childhood teacher education – can and must do to play its part in helping societies move towards sustainable living. It is about the emerging field of early childhood education for sustainability (ECEfS).

What is early childhood education for sustainability?

Julie Davis canvasses the literature to explain why sustainability issues are important for young children and why early childhood educators should become engaged with EfS. She outlines the short history of ECEfS in Australasia and internationally, emphasising its marginalised and fragile early phase that is now beginning to coalesce into a robust international movement. She then highlights two recent studies undertaken in child care centres that illustrate the learning and actions that are possible when education for sustainability is incorporated into early childhood curriculum and pedagogy. Julie ends the chapter by identifying the qualities that might characterise early childhood education for sustainability, stressing its requirement to be transformative education that builds the capabilities of young children as agents of change for sustainability. In so doing, she draws together theoretical strands from both early childhood education and EfS, beginning the process of constructing a theoretical framework for ECEfS.

Creating deep and broad change through research and systems approaches in early childhood education for sustainability

The co-authors raise two matters they consider essential for the future development of ECEfS. The first is the need to create deep foundations based in research. At a time of increasing practitioner interest, research in ECEfS is meagre. A robust research community is crucial to support quality in curriculum and pedagogy, and to promote learning and innovation in thinking and practice. The second 'essential' for the expansion and uptake of ECEfS is broad systemic change. All level within the early childhood education system - individual teachers and classrooms, whole centres and schools, professional associations and networks, accreditation and employing authorities, and teacher educators - must work together to create and reinforce the cultural and educational changes required for sustainability. This chapter provides explanations of processes to engender systemic change. It illustrates a systems approach, with reference to a recent study focused on embedding EfS into teacher education. This study emphasises the apparent contradiction that the answer to large-scale reform lies with small-scale reforms that build capacity and make connections.

Students’ perceptions, experiences and beliefs about Facebook in subjects at an Australian university

This paper reports on students’ perceptions, experiences and beliefs about the voluntary use of Facebook in Advertising, Law, Nursing and Creative Industries’ subjects at an Australian University. The researchers conducted in-depth interviews with students and the transcriptions were analysed using the constant comparison method. This resulted in a number of emergent themes, of which six are explored in this paper. The findings suggest that students are quite divergent in their responses to academics using Facebook in their subjects. They do not always see its relevance to the subject and are somewhat ambivalent about how it facilitates peer-to-peer relationships or a better relationship with the lecturer. The study also identifies themes relating to cynicism and intrusion into social spaces.

Coordinated research support services at Queensland University of Technology, Australia

Queensland University of Technology (QUT) is a large multidisciplinary university located in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. QUT is increasing its research focus and is developing its research support services. It has adopted a model of collaboration between the Library, High Performance Computing and Research Support (HPC) and more broadly with Information Technology Services (ITS). Research support services provided by the Library include the provision of information resources and discovery services, bibliographic management software, assistance with publishing (publishing strategies, identifying high impact journals, dealing with publishers and the peer review process), citation analysis and calculating authors’ H Index. Research data management services are being developed by the Library and HPC working in collaboration. The HPC group within ITS supports research computing infrastructure, research development and engagement activities, researcher consultation, high speed computation and data storage systems , 2D/ 3D (immersive) visualisation tools, parallelisation and optimization of research codes, statistics/ data modeling training and support (both qualitative and quantitative) and support for the university’s central Access Grid collaboration facility. Development and engagement activities include participation in research grants and papers, student supervision and internships and the sponsorship, incubation and adoption of new computing technologies for research. ITS also provides other services that support research including ICT training, research infrastructure (networking, data storage, federated access and authorization, virtualization) and corporate systems for research administration. Seminars and workshops are offered to increase awareness and uptake of new and existing services. A series of online surveys on eResearch practices and skills and a number of focus groups was conducted to better inform the development of research support services. Progress towards the provision of research support is described within the context organizational frameworks; resourcing; infrastructure; integration; collaboration; change management; engagement; awareness and skills; new services; and leadership. Challenges to be addressed include the need to redeploy existing operational resources toward new research support services, supporting a rapidly growing research profile across the university, the growing need for the use and support of IT in research programs, finding capacity to address the diverse research support needs across the disciplines, operationalising new research support services following their implementation in project mode, embedding new specialist staff roles, cross-skilling Liaison Librarians, and ensuring continued collaboration between stakeholders.

Exponential asymptotics with multiple stokes lines

When asymptotic series methods are applied in order to solve problems that arise in applied mathematics in the limit that some parameter becomes small, they are unable to demonstrate behaviour that occurs on a scale that is exponentially small compared to the algebraic terms of the asymptotic series. There are many examples of physical systems where behaviour on this scale has important effects and, as such, a range of techniques known as exponential asymptotic techniques were developed that may be used to examinine behaviour on this exponentially small scale. Many problems in applied mathematics may be represented by behaviour within the complex plane, which may subsequently be examined using asymptotic methods. These problems frequently demonstrate behaviour known as Stokes phenomenon, which involves the rapid switches of behaviour on an exponentially small scale in the neighbourhood of some curve known as a Stokes line. Exponential asymptotic techniques have been applied in order to obtain an expression for this exponentially small switching behaviour in the solutions to orginary and partial differential equations. The problem of potential flow over a submerged obstacle has been previously considered in this manner by Chapman & Vanden-Broeck (2006). By representing the problem in the complex plane and applying an exponential asymptotic technique, they were able to detect the switching, and subsequent behaviour, of exponentially small waves on the free surface of the flow in the limit of small Froude number, specifically considering the case of flow over a step with one Stokes line present in the complex plane. We consider an extension of this work to flow configurations with multiple Stokes lines, such as flow over an inclined step, or flow over a bump or trench. The resultant expressions are analysed, and demonstrate interesting implications, such as the presence of exponentially sub-subdominant intermediate waves and the possibility of trapped surface waves for flow over a bump or trench. We then consider the effect of multiple Stokes lines in higher order equations, particu- larly investigating the behaviour of higher-order Stokes lines in the solutions to partial differential equations. These higher-order Stokes lines switch off the ordinary Stokes lines themselves, adding a layer of complexity to the overall Stokes structure of the solution. Specifically, we consider the different approaches taken by Howls et al. (2004) and Chap- man & Mortimer (2005) in applying exponential asymptotic techniques to determine the higher-order Stokes phenomenon behaviour in the solution to a particular partial differ- ential equation.

Life in the 'real world': a profile of Queensland University of Technology Library and Information Science graduates.

A graduate destination survey can provide a snap shot in time of a graduate’s career progression and outcome. This paper will present the results of a Queensland University of Technology study exploring the employment outcomes of students who had completed a library and information science course from the Faculty of Information Technology between 2000 and 2008. Seventy-four graduates completed an online questionnaire administered in July 2009. The study found that 90% of the graduates surveyed were working and living in Queensland, with over three quarters living and working in Brisbane. Nearly 70% were working full-time, while only 1.4% indicating that they were unemployed and looking for work. Over 80% of the graduates identified themselves as working in “librarianship”. This study is the first step in understanding the progression and destination of QUT’s library and information science graduates. It is recommended that this survey becomes an ongoing initiative so that the results can be analysed and compared over time.

Avoiding full extension field arithmetic in pairing computations

The most costly operations encountered in pairing computations are those that take place in the full extension field Fpk . At high levels of security, the complexity of operations in Fpk dominates the complexity of the operations that occur in the lower degree subfields. Consequently, full extension field operations have the greatest effect on the runtime of Miller’s algorithm. Many recent optimizations in the literature have focussed on improving the overall operation count by presenting new explicit formulas that reduce the number of subfield operations encountered throughout an iteration of Miller’s algorithm. Unfortunately, almost all of these improvements tend to suffer for larger embedding degrees where the expensive extension field operations far outweigh the operations in the smaller subfields. In this paper, we propose a new way of carrying out Miller’s algorithm that involves new explicit formulas which reduce the number of full extension field operations that occur in an iteration of the Miller loop, resulting in significant speed ups in most practical situations of between 5 and 30 percent.

Validating the IS-Impact model in Australasian universities

This paper presents a novel study that aims to contribute to understanding the phenomenon of Enterprise Systems (ES) evaluation in Australasian universities. The proposed study addresses known limitations of arguably the most significant dependent variable in the Information System (IS) field - IS Success or IS-Impact. This study adopts the IS-Impact measurement model, reported by Gable et al. (2008), as the primary commencing theory-base and applies research extension strategy described by Berthon et al. (2002); extending both theory and the context. This study employs a longitudinal, multi-method research design, with two interrelated phases – exploratory and confirmatory. The exploratory phase aims to investigate the applicability and sufficiency of the IS-Impact dimensions and measures in the new context. The confirmatory phase will gather quantitative data to statistically validate IS-Impact model as a formative index.

A hidden Markov model and relative entropy rate approach to vision-based dim target detection for UAV sense-and-avoid

Uninhabited aerial vehicles (UAVs) are a cutting-edge technology that is at the forefront of aviation/aerospace research and development worldwide. Many consider their current military and defence applications as just a token of their enormous potential. Unlocking and fully exploiting this potential will see UAVs in a multitude of civilian applications and routinely operating alongside piloted aircraft. The key to realising the full potential of UAVs lies in addressing a host of regulatory, public relation, and technological challenges never encountered be- fore. Aircraft collision avoidance is considered to be one of the most important issues to be addressed, given its safety critical nature. The collision avoidance problem can be roughly organised into three areas: 1) Sense; 2) Detect; and 3) Avoid. Sensing is concerned with obtaining accurate and reliable information about other aircraft in the air; detection involves identifying potential collision threats based on available information; avoidance deals with the formulation and execution of appropriate manoeuvres to maintain safe separation. This thesis tackles the detection aspect of collision avoidance, via the development of a target detection algorithm that is capable of real-time operation onboard a UAV platform. One of the key challenges of the detection problem is the need to provide early warning. This translates to detecting potential threats whilst they are still far away, when their presence is likely to be obscured and hidden by noise. Another important consideration is the choice of sensors to capture target information, which has implications for the design and practical implementation of the detection algorithm. The main contributions of the thesis are: 1) the proposal of a dim target detection algorithm combining image morphology and hidden Markov model (HMM) filtering approaches; 2) the novel use of relative entropy rate (RER) concepts for HMM filter design; 3) the characterisation of algorithm detection performance based on simulated data as well as real in-flight target image data; and 4) the demonstration of the proposed algorithm's capacity for real-time target detection. We also consider the extension of HMM filtering techniques and the application of RER concepts for target heading angle estimation. In this thesis we propose a computer-vision based detection solution, due to the commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) availability of camera hardware and the hardware's relatively low cost, power, and size requirements. The proposed target detection algorithm adopts a two-stage processing paradigm that begins with an image enhancement pre-processing stage followed by a track-before-detect (TBD) temporal processing stage that has been shown to be effective in dim target detection. We compare the performance of two candidate morphological filters for the image pre-processing stage, and propose a multiple hidden Markov model (MHMM) filter for the TBD temporal processing stage. The role of the morphological pre-processing stage is to exploit the spatial features of potential collision threats, while the MHMM filter serves to exploit the temporal characteristics or dynamics. The problem of optimising our proposed MHMM filter has been examined in detail. Our investigation has produced a novel design process for the MHMM filter that exploits information theory and entropy related concepts. The filter design process is posed as a mini-max optimisation problem based on a joint RER cost criterion. We provide proof that this joint RER cost criterion provides a bound on the conditional mean estimate (CME) performance of our MHMM filter, and this in turn establishes a strong theoretical basis connecting our filter design process to filter performance. Through this connection we can intelligently compare and optimise candidate filter models at the design stage, rather than having to resort to time consuming Monte Carlo simulations to gauge the relative performance of candidate designs. Moreover, the underlying entropy concepts are not constrained to any particular model type. This suggests that the RER concepts established here may be generalised to provide a useful design criterion for multiple model filtering approaches outside the class of HMM filters. In this thesis we also evaluate the performance of our proposed target detection algorithm under realistic operation conditions, and give consideration to the practical deployment of the detection algorithm onboard a UAV platform. Two fixed-wing UAVs were engaged to recreate various collision-course scenarios to capture highly realistic vision (from an onboard camera perspective) of the moments leading up to a collision. Based on this collected data, our proposed detection approach was able to detect targets out to distances ranging from about 400m to 900m. These distances, (with some assumptions about closing speeds and aircraft trajectories) translate to an advanced warning ahead of impact that approaches the 12.5 second response time recommended for human pilots. Furthermore, readily available graphic processing unit (GPU) based hardware is exploited for its parallel computing capabilities to demonstrate the practical feasibility of the proposed target detection algorithm. A prototype hardware-in- the-loop system has been found to be capable of achieving data processing rates sufficient for real-time operation. There is also scope for further improvement in performance through code optimisations. Overall, our proposed image-based target detection algorithm offers UAVs a cost-effective real-time target detection capability that is a step forward in ad- dressing the collision avoidance issue that is currently one of the most significant obstacles preventing widespread civilian applications of uninhabited aircraft. We also highlight that the algorithm development process has led to the discovery of a powerful multiple HMM filtering approach and a novel RER-based multiple filter design process. The utility of our multiple HMM filtering approach and RER concepts, however, extend beyond the target detection problem. This is demonstrated by our application of HMM filters and RER concepts to a heading angle estimation problem.