Modeling crash types: New insights into the effects of covariates on crashes at rural intersections

Many studies focused on the development of crash prediction models have resulted in aggregate crash prediction models to quantify the safety effects of geometric, traffic, and environmental factors on the expected number of total, fatal, injury, and/or property damage crashes at specific locations. Crash prediction models focused on predicting different crash types, however, have rarely been developed. Crash type models are useful for at least three reasons. The first is motivated by the need to identify sites that are high risk with respect to specific crash types but that may not be revealed through crash totals. Second, countermeasures are likely to affect only a subset of all crashes—usually called target crashes—and so examination of crash types will lead to improved ability to identify effective countermeasures. Finally, there is a priori reason to believe that different crash types (e.g., rear-end, angle, etc.) are associated with road geometry, the environment, and traffic variables in different ways and as a result justify the estimation of individual predictive models. The objectives of this paper are to (1) demonstrate that different crash types are associated to predictor variables in different ways (as theorized) and (2) show that estimation of crash type models may lead to greater insights regarding crash occurrence and countermeasure effectiveness. This paper first describes the estimation results of crash prediction models for angle, head-on, rear-end, sideswipe (same direction and opposite direction), and pedestrian-involved crash types. Serving as a basis for comparison, a crash prediction model is estimated for total crashes. Based on 837 motor vehicle crashes collected on two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia, six prediction models are estimated resulting in two Poisson (P) models and four NB (NB) models. The analysis reveals that factors such as the annual average daily traffic, the presence of turning lanes, and the number of driveways have a positive association with each type of crash, whereas median widths and the presence of lighting are negatively associated. For the best fitting models covariates are related to crash types in different ways, suggesting that crash types are associated with different precrash conditions and that modeling total crash frequency may not be helpful for identifying specific countermeasures.

Load frequency control for rural distributed generation

In rural low-voltage networks, distribution lines are usually highly resistive. When many distributed generators are connected to such lines, power sharing among them is difficult when using conventional droop control, as the real and reactive power have strong coupling with each other. A high droop gain can alleviate this problem but may lead the system to instability. To overcome4 this, two droop control methods are proposed for accurate load sharing with frequency droop controller. The first method considers no communication among the distributed generators and regulates the output voltage and frequency, ensuring acceptable load sharing. The droop equations are modified with a transformation matrix based on the line R/X ration for this purpose. The second proposed method, with minimal low bandwidth communication, modifies the reference frequency of the distributed generators based on the active and reactive power flow in the lines connected to the points of common coupling. The performance of these two proposed controllers is compared with that of a controller, which includes an expensive high bandwidth communication system through time-domain simulation of a test system. The magnitude of errors in power sharing between these three droop control schemes are evaluated and tabulated.

Community engagement and groundwater investigation in a rural/peri urban basaltic aquifier system, Tamborine Mountain, South East Queensland

The Tamborine Mt area is a popular residential and tourist area in the Gold Coast hinterland, SE Qld. The 15km2 area occurs on elevated remnant Tertiary Basalts of the Beechmont Group, which comprise a number of mappable flow units originally derived from the Tweed volcanic centre to the south. The older Albert Basalt (Tertiary), which underlies the Beechmont Basalt at the southern end of the investigation area, is thought to be derived from the Focal Peak volcanic centre to the south west. The Basalts contain a locally significant ‘un-declared’ groundwater resource, which is utilised by the Tamborine Mt community for: • domestic purposes to supplement rainwater tank supplies, • commercial scale horticulture and • commercial export off-Mountain for bottled water. There is no reticulated water supply, and all waste water is treated on-site through domestic scale WTPs. Rainforest and other riparian ecosystems that attract residents and tourist dollars to the area, are also reliant on the groundwater that discharges to springs and surface streams on and around the plateau. Issues regarding a lack of compiled groundwater information, groundwater contamination, and groundwater sustainability are being investigated by QUT, utilising funding provided by the Federal Government’s ‘Caring for our Country’ programme through SEQ Catchments Ltd. The objectives of the two year project, which started in April 2009, are to: • Characterise the nature and condition of groundwater / surface water systems in the Tamborine Mountain area in terms of the issues being raised; • Engage and build capacity within the community to source local knowledge, encourage participation, raise awareness and improve understanding of the impacts of land and water use; • Develop a stand-alone 3D Visualisation model for dissemination into the community and use as a communication tool.

Repeat participation in colorectal cancer screening utilizing fecal occult blood testing : a community-based project in a rural setting

Background and Aim: To investigate participation in a second round of colorectal cancer screening using a fecal occult blood test (FOBT) in an Australian rural community, and to assess the demographic characteristics and individual perspectives associated with repeat screening. ---------- Methods: Potential participants from round 1 (50–74 years of age) were sent an intervention package and asked to return a completed FOBT (n = 3406). Doctors of participants testing positive referred to colonoscopy as appropriate. Following screening, 119 participants completed qualitative telephone interviews. Multivariable logistic regression models evaluated the association between round-2 participation and other variables.---------- Results: Round-2 participation was 34.7%; the strongest predictor was participation in round 1. Repeat participants were more likely to be female; inconsistent screeners were more likely to be younger (aged 50–59 years). The proportion of positive FOBT was 12.7%, that of colonoscopy compliance was 98.6%, and the positive predictive value for cancer or adenoma of advanced pathology was 23.9%. Reasons for participation included testing as a precautionary measure or having family history/friends with colorectal cancer; reasons for non-participation included apathy or doctors’ advice against screening.---------- Conclusion: Participation was relatively low and consistent across rounds. Unless suitable strategies are identified to overcome behavioral trends and/or to screen out ineligible participants, little change in overall participation rates can be expected across rounds.

Clients’ understanding of the role of nurse practitioners

Introduction: Nurse Practitioners (NPs) have an emerging role in the Australian healthcare system. However, there remains a dearth of available data about public understanding of the NP role. ---------- Aim: To evaluate clients’ understanding of the role of the NP and their satisfaction with education received, quality of care and NP knowledge and skill. ---------- Method: All authorised NPs working in a designated NP position in Western Australia and those working in three area health services in New South Wales (NSW) were invited to recruit five consecutive clients to complete the self-administered survey. ---------- Results: Thirty two NPs (NP response rate 93%) recruited 129 clients (client response rate 90%). Two thirds of clients (63%) were aware they were consulting an NP. The majority rated the following NP related outcomes as ‘excellent’ or ‘very good’: education provided (89%); quality of care (95%); and knowledge and skill (93%). Less than half reported an understanding that NPs could prescribe medications (40.5%) or interpret X-rays (33.6%). Clients of NPs practising in a rural or remote setting were more likely than those in an urban setting to have previously consulted an NP (p=0.005), and where applicable would to prefer to see a NP rather than a doctor (p=0.022). ---------- Discussion: Successful implementation and expansion of the NP role requires NP visibility in the community. Despite high levels of satisfaction more awareness of the scope of the NP role is required.

Expansion and chondrogenic potential of human articular chondrocytes on macroporous microcarriers

Regenerative medicine techniques are currently being investigated to replace damaged cartilage. Critical to the success of these techniques is the ability to expand the initial population of cells while minimising de-differentiation to allow for hyaline cartilage to form. Three-dimensional culture systems have been shown to enhance the differentiation of chondrocytes in comparison to two-dimensional culture systems. Additionally, bioreactor expansion on microcarriers can provide mechanical stimulation and reduce the amount of cellular manipulation during expansion. The aim of this study was to characterise the expansion of human chondrocytes on microcarriers and to determine their potential to form cartilaginous tissue in vitro. High-grade human articular cartilage was obtained from leg amputations with ethics approval. Chondrocytes were isolated by collagenase digestion and expanded in either monolayers (104 cells/cm2) or on CultiSpher-G microcarriers (104 cells/mg) for three weeks. Following expansion, monolayer cells were passaged and cells on microcarriers were either left intact or the cells were released with trypsin/EDTA. Pellets from these three groups were formed and cultured for three weeks to establish the chondrogenic differentiation potential of monolayer-expanded and microcarrier-expanded chondrocytes. Cell viability, proliferation, glycosaminoglycan (GAG) accumulation, and collagen synthesis were assessed. Histology and immunohistochemistry were also performed. Human chondrocytes remained viable and expanded on microcarriers 10.2±2.6 fold in three weeks. GAG content significantly increased with time, with the majority of GAG found in the medium. Collagen production per nanogram DNA increased marginally during expansion. Histology revealed that chondrocytes were randomly distributed on microcarrier surfaces yet most pores remained cell free. Critically, human chondrocytes expanded on microcarriers maintained their ability to redifferentiate in pellet culture, as demonstrated by Safranin-O and collagen II staining. These data confirm the feasibility of microcarriers for passage-free cultivation of human articular chondrocytes. However, cell expansion needs to be improved, perhaps through growth factor supplementation, for clinical utility. Recent data indicate that cell-laden microcarriers can be used to seed fresh microcarriers, thereby increasing the expansion factor while minimising enzymatic passage.

Adult human articular chondrocytes in a microcarrier-based culture system : expansion and redifferentiation

xpanding human chondrocytes in vitro while maintaining their ability to form cartilage remains a key challenge in cartilage tissue engineering. One promising approach to address this is to use microcarriers as substrates for chondrocyte expansion. While microcarriers have shown beneficial effects for expansion of animal and ectopic human chondrocytes, their utility has not been determined for freshly isolated adult human articular chondrocytes. Thus, we investigated the proliferation and subsequent chondrogenic differentiation of these clinically relevant cells on porous gelatin microcarriers and compared them to those expanded using traditional monolayers. Chondrocytes attached to microcarriers within 2 days and remained viable over 4 weeks of culture in spinner flasks. Cells on microcarriers exhibited a spread morphology and initially proliferated faster than cells in monolayer culture, however, with prolonged expansion they were less proliferative. Cells expanded for 1 month and enzymatically released from microcarriers formed cartilaginous tissue in micromass pellet cultures, which was similar to tissue formed by monolayer-expanded cells. Cells left attached to microcarriers did not exhibit chondrogenic capacity. Culture conditions, such as microcarrier material, oxygen tension, and mechanical stimulation require further investigation to facilitate the efficient expansion of clinically relevant human articular chondrocytes that maintain chondrogenic potential for cartilage regeneration applications.

A novel load transfer scheme for peak load management in rural areas

This paper proposes a novel peak load management scheme for rural areas. The scheme transfers certain customers onto local nonembedded generators during peak load periods to alleviate network under voltage problems. This paper develops and presents this system by way of a case study in Central Queensland, Australia. A methodology is presented for determining the best location for the nonembedded generators as well as the number of generators required to alleviate network problems. A control algorithm to transfer and reconnect customers is developed to ensure that the network voltage profile remains within specification under all plausible load conditions. Finally, simulations are presented to show the performance of the system over a typical maximum daily load profile with large stochastic load variations.

Model-order selection in Zernike polynomial expansion of corneal surfaces using the efficient detection criterion

Corneal-height data are typically measured with videokeratoscopes and modeled using a set of orthogonal Zernike polynomials. We address the estimation of the number of Zernike polynomials, which is formalized as a model-order selection problem in linear regression. Classical information-theoretic criteria tend to overestimate the corneal surface due to the weakness of their penalty functions, while bootstrap-based techniques tend to underestimate the surface or require extensive processing. In this paper, we propose to use the efficient detection criterion (EDC), which has the same general form of information-theoretic-based criteria, as an alternative to estimating the optimal number of Zernike polynomials. We first show, via simulations, that the EDC outperforms a large number of information-theoretic criteria and resampling-based techniques. We then illustrate that using the EDC for real corneas results in models that are in closer agreement with clinical expectations and provides means for distinguishing normal corneal surfaces from astigmatic and keratoconic surfaces.

Risk factors for fatal crashes in rural Australia

This paper presents findings from the rural and remote road safety study, conducted in Queensland, Australia, from March 2004 till June 2007, and compares fatal crashes and non-fatal but serious crashes in respect of their environmental, vehicle and operator factors. During the study period there were 613 non-fatal crashes resulting in 684 hospitalised casualties and 119 fatal crashes resulting in 130 fatalities. Additional information from police sources was available on 103 fatal and 309 non-fatal serious crashes. Over three quarters of both fatal and hospitalised casualties were male and the median age in both groups was 34 years. Fatal crashes were more likely to involve speed, alcohol and violations of road rules and fatal crash victims were 2 and a 1/2 times more likely to be unrestrained inside the vehicle than non-fatal casualties, consistent with current international evidence. After controlling for human factors, vehicle and road conditions made a minimal contribution to the seriousness of the crash outcome. Targeted interventions to prevent fatalities on rural and remote roads should focus on reducing speed and drink driving and promoting seatbelt wearing.

Predicting single-vehicle fatal crashes for two-lane rural highways in Southeastern United States

The rural two-lane highway in the southeastern United States is frequently associated with a disproportionate number of serious and fatal crashes and as such remains a focus of considerable safety research. The Georgia Department of Transportation spearheaded a regional fatal crash analysis to identify various safety performances of two-lane rural highways and to offer guidance for identifying suitable countermeasures with which to mitigate fatal crashes. The fatal crash data used in this study were compiled from Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina. The database, developed for an earlier study, included 557 randomly selected fatal crashes from 1997 or 1998 or both (this varied by state). Each participating state identified the candidate crashes and performed physical or video site visits to construct crash databases with enhance site-specific information. Motivated by the hypothesis that single- and multiple-vehicle crashes arise from fundamentally different circumstances, the research team applied binary logit models to predict the probability that a fatal crash is a single-vehicle run-off-road fatal crash given roadway design characteristics, roadside environment features, and traffic conditions proximal to the crash site. A wide variety of factors appears to influence or be associated with single-vehicle fatal crashes. In a model transferability assessment, the authors determined that lane width, horizontal curvature, and ambient lighting are the only three significant variables that are consistent for single-vehicle run-off-road crashes for all study locations.

Weekly activity-travel behaviour in rural Northern Ireland : differences by context and socio-demographic

Despite a wide variation in access to goods and services between rural areas, common policy interventions are often proposed in Northern Ireland. Questions remain as to the level and form of policy differentiation that is required, if any, both within and between different rural areas. This issue is investigated in this paper through the analysis of activity-travel patterns of individuals living in two rural areas with different levels of area accessibility and area mobility. Three focus groups, 299 questionnaires and 89 activity-travel diaries for 7 days were collected for individuals from these areas. Regression analyses were employed to explore the degree to which different factors influence activity travel behaviour. The results indicate that individuals from rural areas with a higher level of accessibility are more integrated within their local community and as a result, are potentially less at risk of being excluded from society due to immobility. Differences, however, were also found between different groups within an area (e.g. non-car owning individuals who were more reliant on walking, and low-income individuals who made trips of a shorter distance). Based on the study findings and a review of existing policies, this research highlights the need to tailor policy responses to reflect the particular sets of circumstances exhibited in different areas.

Participation index : a measure to identify rural transport disadvantage?

This paper develops a composite participation index (PI) to identify patterns of transport disadvantage in space and time. It is operationalised using 157 weekly activity-travel diaries data collected from three case study areas in rural Northern Ireland. A review of activity space and travel behaviour research found that six dimensional indicators of activity spaces were typically used including the number of unique locations visited, distance travelled, area of activity spaces, frequency of activity participation, types of activity participated in, and duration of participation in order to identify transport disadvantage. A combined measure using six individual indices were developed based on the six dimensional indicators of activity spaces, by taking into account the relativity of the measures for weekdays, weekends, and for a week. Factor analyses were conducted to derive weights of these indices to form the PI measure. Multivariate analysis using general linear models of the different indicators/indices identified new patterns of transport disadvantage. The research found that: indicator based measures and index based measures are complement each other; interactions between different factors generated new patterns of transport disadvantage; and that these patterns vary in space and time. The analysis also indicates that the transport needs of different disadvantaged groups are varied.

Identifying rural disadvantage using a multiday travel diary

This paper identifies transport disadvantage using a 7 day activity-travel diary data from two rural case study areas. A composite participation index (PI) measure was developed for this study based on six indices measuring elements of travel and activity participation. Using the index the paper then goes on to compare these results, with the results obtained from other more traditional indicators used to identify transport disadvantage. These indicators are related to the size of activity space such as unique network distance travelled, number of unique locations visited, activity space area, activity duration, and fullness (shape) of activity spaces. The weaknesses of these indicator based measures are that: firstly, they do not take into account the relativity of the measure between different areas i.e. travel distance in terms of the wider context of available activities within an area; and secondly, these indicators are multi-dimensional and each represents a different qualitative aspect of travel and activity participation. As a result, six individual indices were developed to overcome these problems. These include: participation count index, participation length index, participation area index, participation duration index, participation type index, and participation frequency index. These are then aggregated to assess the relative performance in terms of these different indices and identify the nature of transport disadvantage. GIS was used to visualise individual travel patterns and to derive scores for both the indicator based measures and the index based measures. Factor analysis was conducted to derive weights of the individual indices to form the composite index measure. From this analysis, two intermediate indices were also derived using the underlying factors of the data related to these indices. Using the scores of all these measures, multiple regression analyses were conducted to identify patterns of transport disadvantage.

Mobility, accessibility and activity participation : a comparative assessment of methods to identify rural transport disadvantage

Traditionally, transport disadvantage has been identified using accessibility analysis although the effectiveness of the accessibility planning approach to improving access to goods and services is not known. This paper undertakes a comparative assessment of measures of mobility, accessibility, and participation used to identify transport disadvantage using the concept of activity spaces. A 7 day activity-travel diary data for 89 individuals was collected from two case study areas located in rural Northern Ireland. A spatial analysis was conducted to select the case study areas using criteria derived from the literature. The criteria are related to the levels of area accessibility and area mobility which are known to influence the nature of transport disadvantage. Using the activity-travel diary data individuals weekly as well as day to day variations in activity-travel patterns were visualised. A model was developed using the ArcGIS ModelBuilder tool and was run to derive scores related to individual levels of mobility, accessibility, and participation in activities from the geovisualisation. Using these scores a multiple regression analysis was conducted to identify patterns of transport disadvantage. This study found a positive association between mobility and accessibility, between mobility and participation, and between accessibility and participation in activities. However, area accessibility and area mobility were found to have little impact on individual mobility, accessibility, and participation in activities. Income vis-àvis ´ car-ownership was found to have a significant impact on individual levels of mobility, and accessibility; whereas participation in activities were found to be a function of individual levels of income and their occupational status.