Integrating science through Bayesian Belief Networks : case study of Lyngbya in Moreton Bay

Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are emerging as valuable tools for investigating complex ecological problems. In a BBN, the important variables in a problem are identified and causal relationships are represented graphically. Underpinning this is the probabilistic framework in which variables can take on a finite range of mutually exclusive states. Associated with each variable is a conditional probability table (CPT), showing the probability of a variable attaining each of its possible states conditioned on all possible combinations of it parents. Whilst the variables (nodes) are connected, the CPT attached to each node can be quantified independently. This allows each variable to be populated with the best data available, including expert opinion, simulation results or observed data. It also allows the information to be easily updated as better data become available ----- ----- This paper reports on the process of developing a BBN to better understand the initial rapid growth phase (initiation) of a marine cyanobacterium, Lyngbya majuscula, in Moreton Bay, Queensland. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Lyngbya blooms in this region have increased in severity and extent over the past decade. Lyngbya has been associated with acute dermatitis and a range of other health problems in humans. Blooms have been linked to ecosystem degradation and have also damaged commercial and recreational fisheries. However, the causes of blooms are as yet poorly understood.

Testing a framework for the quality of process models: A case study

Process modeling can be regarded as the currently most popular form of conceptual modeling. Research evidence illustrates how process modeling is applied across the different information system life cycle phases for a range of different applications, such as configuration of Enterprise Systems, workflow management, or software development. However, a detailed discussion of critical factors of the quality of process models is still missing. This paper proposes a framework consisting of six quality factors, which is derived from a comprehensive literature review. It then presents in a case study, a utility provider, who had designed various business process models for the selection of an Enterprise System. The paper summarizes potential means of conducting a successful process modeling initiative and evaluates the described modeling approach within the Guidelines of Modeling (GoM) framework. An outlook shows the potential lessons learnt, and concludes with insights to the next phases of this study.