399 resultados para default probability
Resumo:
This paper investigates the effectiveness of virtual product placement as a marketing tool by examining the relationship between brand recall and recognition and virtual product placement. It also aims to address a gap in the existing academic literature by focusing on the impact of product placement on recall and recognition of new brands. The growing importance of product placement is discussed and a review of previous research on product placement and virtual product placement is provided. The research methodology used to study the recall and recognition effects of virtual product placement are described and key findings presented. Finally, implications are discussed and recommendations for future research provided.
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Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) are emerging as valuable tools for investigating complex ecological problems. In a BBN, the important variables in a problem are identified and causal relationships are represented graphically. Underpinning this is the probabilistic framework in which variables can take on a finite range of mutually exclusive states. Associated with each variable is a conditional probability table (CPT), showing the probability of a variable attaining each of its possible states conditioned on all possible combinations of it parents. Whilst the variables (nodes) are connected, the CPT attached to each node can be quantified independently. This allows each variable to be populated with the best data available, including expert opinion, simulation results or observed data. It also allows the information to be easily updated as better data become available ----- ----- This paper reports on the process of developing a BBN to better understand the initial rapid growth phase (initiation) of a marine cyanobacterium, Lyngbya majuscula, in Moreton Bay, Queensland. Anecdotal evidence suggests that Lyngbya blooms in this region have increased in severity and extent over the past decade. Lyngbya has been associated with acute dermatitis and a range of other health problems in humans. Blooms have been linked to ecosystem degradation and have also damaged commercial and recreational fisheries. However, the causes of blooms are as yet poorly understood.
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The high degree of variability and inconsistency in cash flow study usage by property professionals demands improvement in knowledge and processes. Until recently limited research was being undertaken on the use of cash flow studies in property valuations but the growing acceptance of this approach for major investment valuations has resulted in renewed interest in this topic. Studies on valuation variations identify data accuracy, model consistency and bias as major concerns. In cash flow studies there are practical problems with the input data and the consistency of the models. This study will refer to the recent literature and identify the major factors in model inconsistency and data selection. A detailed case study will be used to examine the effects of changes in structure and inputs. The key variable inputs will be identified and proposals developed to improve the selection process for these key variables. The variables will be selected with the aid of sensitivity studies and alternative ways of quantifying the key variables explained. The paper recommends, with reservations, the use of probability profiles of the variables and the incorporation of this data in simulation exercises. The use of Monte Carlo simulation is demonstrated and the factors influencing the structure of the probability distributions of the key variables are outline. This study relates to ongoing research into functional performance of commercial property within an Australian Cooperative Research Centre.
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Aijt-Sahalia (2002) introduced a method to estimate transitional probability densities of di®usion processes by means of Hermite expansions with coe±cients determined by means of Taylor series. This note describes a numerical procedure to ¯nd these coe±cients based on the calculation of moments. One advantage of this procedure is that it can be used e®ectively when the mathematical operations required to ¯nd closed-form expressions for these coe±cients are otherwise infeasible.
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This chapter explores the development of concepts of interactive environments by comparing two major projects that frame the period of this book. The Fun Palace of 1960 and the Generator of 1980 both proposed interactive environments responsive to the needs and behaviour of their users, but the contrast in terms of the available technology and what it enabled could not be more marked. The Fun Palace broke new architectural, organizational and social ground and was arguably the first proposition for cybernetic architecture; the Generator demonstrated how it could be achieved. Both projects are now acknowledged as seminal architectural propositions of the twentieth century, and both were designed by Cedric Price.
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Facing with the difficulty in information propagation and synthesizing from conceptual to embodiment design, this paper introduces a function-oriented, axiom based conceptual modeling scheme. Default logic reasoning is exploited for recognition and reconstitution of conceptual product geometric and topological information. The proposed product modeling system and reasoning approach testify a methodology of "structural variation design", which is verified in the implementation of a GPAL (Green Product All Life-cycle) CAD system. The GPAL system includes major enhancement modules of a mechanism layout sketching method based on fuzzy logic, a knowledge-based function-to-form mapping mechanism and conceptual form reconstitution paradigm based on default geometric reasoning. A mechanical hand design example shows a more than 20 times increase in design efficacy with these enhancement modules in the GPAL system on a general 3D CAD platform.
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The main aim of radiotherapy is to deliver a dose of radiation that is high enough to destroy the tumour cells while at the same time minimising the damage to normal healthy tissues. Clinically, this has been achieved by assigning a prescription dose to the tumour volume and a set of dose constraints on critical structures. Once an optimal treatment plan has been achieved the dosimetry is assessed using the physical parameters of dose and volume. There has been an interest in using radiobiological parameters to evaluate and predict the outcome of a treatment plan in terms of both a tumour control probability (TCP) and a normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). In this study, simple radiobiological models that are available in a commercial treatment planning system were used to compare three dimensional conformal radiotherapy treatments (3D-CRT) and intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) treatments of the prostate. Initially both 3D-CRT and IMRT were planned for 2 Gy/fraction to a total dose of 60 Gy to the prostate. The sensitivity of the TCP and the NTCP to both conventional dose escalation and hypo-fractionation was investigated. The biological responses were calculated using the Källman S-model. The complication free tumour control probability (P+) is generated from the combined NTCP and TCP response values. It has been suggested that the alpha/beta ratio for prostate carcinoma cells may be lower than for most other tumour cell types. The effect of this on the modelled biological response for the different fractionation schedules was also investigated.
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John Frazer's architectural work is inspired by living and generative processes. Both evolutionary and revolutionary, it explores informatin ecologies and the dynamics of the spaces between objects. Fuelled by an interest in the cybernetic work of Gordon Pask and Norbert Wiener, and the possibilities of the computer and the "new science" it has facilitated, Frazer and his team of collaborators have conducted a series of experiments that utilize genetic algorithms, cellular automata, emergent behaviour, complexity and feedback loops to create a truly dynamic architecture. Frazer studied at the Architectural Association (AA) in London from 1963 to 1969, and later became unit master of Diploma Unit 11 there. He was subsequently Director of Computer-Aided Design at the University of Ulter - a post he held while writing An Evolutionary Architecture in 1995 - and a lecturer at the University of Cambridge. In 1983 he co-founded Autographics Software Ltd, which pioneered microprocessor graphics. Frazer was awarded a person chair at the University of Ulster in 1984. In Frazer's hands, architecture becomes machine-readable, formally open-ended and responsive. His work as computer consultant to Cedric Price's Generator Project of 1976 (see P84)led to the development of a series of tools and processes; these have resulted in projects such as the Calbuild Kit (1985) and the Universal Constructor (1990). These subsequent computer-orientated architectural machines are makers of architectural form beyond the full control of the architect-programmer. Frazer makes much reference to the multi-celled relationships found in nature, and their ongoing morphosis in response to continually changing contextual criteria. He defines the elements that describe his evolutionary architectural model thus: "A genetic code script, rules for the development of the code, mapping of the code to a virtual model, the nature of the environment for the development of the model and, most importantly, the criteria for selection. In setting out these parameters for designing evolutionary architectures, Frazer goes beyond the usual notions of architectural beauty and aesthetics. Nevertheless his work is not without an aesthetic: some pieces are a frenzy of mad wire, while others have a modularity that is reminiscent of biological form. Algorithms form the basis of Frazer's designs. These algorithms determine a variety of formal results dependent on the nature of the information they are given. His work, therefore, is always dynamic, always evolving and always different. Designing with algorithms is also critical to other architects featured in this book, such as Marcos Novak (see p150). Frazer has made an unparalleled contribution to defining architectural possibilities for the twenty-first century, and remains an inspiration to architects seeking to create responsive environments. Architects were initially slow to pick up on the opportunities that the computer provides. These opportunities are both representational and spatial: computers can help architects draw buildings and, more importantly, they can help architects create varied spaces, both virtual and actual. Frazer's work was groundbreaking in this respect, and well before its time.
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Reflecting its importance to thc financial success of organisations, interest in consumer loyalty continues unabated. However, there are still many unanswered questions about its conceptualisation and measurement.These questions must he resolved before academics and practitioners can usefully apply the concept. We argue that consumer loyalty is best conceptualised as a multi-dimensional phenomenon. Based on this multi-dimensional view, we develop and test a new measure of consumer loyalty. We hypothesise a threedimensional structure containing affective, temporal and instrumental dimensions, Results from a preliminary test are reported. The results indicate that the construct can be reprcxeuted with two dimensions: affective and temporal loyally. As an additional check on the reliability of our results, we find significant correlations between these two dimensions and a measure of behavioural loyalty.
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Despite advances in gender equity, evidence suggests that the level of business ownership by males continues to be significantly higher than that offemales. Moreover, females, from an early age, have lower entrepreneurial intentions than males. This paper examines previous studies to determine the factors that have been shown to relate to lower entrepreneurial intentions in women, to identify areas where prior research has been inadequate or inconclusive, and to discuss how intentions models might be modified to better explain the lower level of female business start-ups. It was found that the lower level of intentions is related to a range of personal background and attitudinal variables, and these factors are critically examined in this review. It is suggested that future research should focus on role models, networks and life roles in order to better explain female entrepreneurial intentions.
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This study examines consumers' emotional responses to receiving viral mobile marketing communications in comparison to receiving mobile marketing communications where permission has not been given. The study also examines the relationship between these experienced emotions and what action tendencies consumers might consider as a result of these emotions, as well as how they attribute causality for their emotions. Using scenarios in an experimental design, the findings show that there are differences in consumer emotions as a result of the two marketing approaches. The findings also identify relationships between consumers' causal attributions and action tendencies in relation to themselves, the friend sending the viral m-marketing communication and the company involved.
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This paper explores the influence of emotional loyalty on music purchase behaviour. Specifically, it examines whether emotional attachment to an artist's music influences loyalty to that artist, and how emotional loyalty influences a consumer's decision to purchase music. Data collection involved fifteen semi-structured interviews with young (18-30) subjects recruited through non-probability convenience sampling. Findings show that consumers who are emotionally loyal to an artistes) are more inclined to purchase the music rather than download free of charge.
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The use of collaborative assignments for assessment is a risky undertaking for students and course designers. Yet the benefits, in terms of core learning outcomes, competencies, collaborative sense making and student involvement, suggest that the effort is worthwhile. Formal descriptions and rules do little to ameliorate the perception of risk and increased anxiety by students. (Ryan, 2007). BEB100 Introducing Professional Learning is a faculty-wide foundation unit with over 1300 students from 19 disciplines across the Faculty of the Built Environment and Engineering (“BEE”) at the Queensland University of Technology (“QUT”), Brisbane, Australia. Finding order in chaos outlines the approach and justification, assessment criteria, learning resources, teamwork tools, tutorial management, communication strategies, 2007-09 Student Learning Experience Survey results, annual improvements, findings and outcomes.