Managing health risks of extreme weather events : need for a systematic approach

The Climate Commission recently outlined the trend of major extreme weather events in different regions of Australia, including heatwaves, floods, droughts, bushfires, cyclones and storms. These events already impose an enormous health and financial burden onto society and are projected to occur more frequently and intensely. Unless we act now, further financial losses and increasing health burdens seem inevitable. We seek to highlight the major areas for interdisciplinary investigation, identify barriers and formulate response strategies.

Effects of cold weather on durability of CFRP strengthened circular hollow steel members

Tubular members have become progressively more popular due to excellent structural properties, aesthetic appearance, corrosion and fire protection capability. However, a large number of such structures are found structurally deficient due to reduction of strength when they expose to severe environmental conditions such as marine environment, cold and hot weather. Hence strengthening and retrofitting of structural members are in high demands. In recent times Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymers (CFRP) composites appears to be an excellent solution to enhance the load carrying capacity and serviceability of steel structures because of its superior physical and mechanical properties. However, the durability of such strengthening system under cold environmental condition has not yet been well documented to guide the engineers. This paper presents the findings of a study conducted to enhance the bond durability of CFRP strengthened steel tubular members by treating steel surface using epoxy based adhesion promoter under cold weather subjected to bending. The experimental program consisted of six number of CFRP strengthened specimens and one bare specimen. The sand blasted surface of the three specimens to be strengthened was pre-treated with MBrace primer and other three were remained untreated and then cured under ambient temperature and cold weather (3oC) for three and six months period of time. The beams were then loaded to failure under four point bending. The structural response of each specimen was predicted in terms of failure mode, failure load and mid-span deflection. The research findings show that the cold weather immersion had an adverse effect on durability of CFRP strengthened structures. Moreover, the epoxy based adhesion promoter was found to enhance the bond durability in elastic range.

A rapid assessment of the effects of extreme weather on two Great Barrier Reef industries

In coastal areas, extreme weather events, such as floods and cyclones, can have debilitating effects on the social and economic viability of marine-based industries. In March 2011, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority implemented an Extreme Weather Response Program, following a period of intense flooding and cyclonic activity between December 2010 and February 2011. In this paper, we discuss the results of a project within the Program, which aimed to: (1) assess the impacts of extreme weather events on regional tourism and commercial fishing industries; and (2) develop and road-test an impact assessment matrix to improve government and industry responses to extreme weather events. Results revealed that extreme weather events both directly and indirectly affected all five of the measured categories, i.e. ecological, personal, social, infrastructure and economic components. The severity of these impacts, combined with their location and the nature of their business, influenced how tourism operators and fishers assessed the impact of the events (low, medium, high or extreme). The impact assessment tool was revised following feedback obtained during stakeholder workshops and may prove useful for managers in responding to potential direct and indirect impacts of future extreme weather events on affected marine industries. © 2013 Planning Institute Australia.

Total energy shaping of a class of underactuated Port-Hamiltonian Systems using a new set of closed-loop potential shape variables

This paper proposes a method for designing set-point regulation controllers for a class of underactuated mechanical systems in Port-Hamiltonian System (PHS) form. A new set of potential shape variables in closed loop is proposed, which can replace the set of open loop shape variables-the configuration variables that appear in the kinetic energy. With this choice, the closed-loop potential energy contains free functions of the new variables. By expressing the regulation objective in terms of these new potential shape variables, the desired equilibrium can be assigned and there is freedom to reshape the potential energy to achieve performance whilst maintaining the PHS form in closed loop. This complements contemporary results in the literature, which preserve the open-loop shape variables. As a case study, we consider a robotic manipulator mounted on a flexible base and compensate for the motion of the base while positioning the end effector with respect to the ground reference. We compare the proposed control strategy with special cases that correspond to other energy shaping strategies previously proposed in the literature.

Accelerometer data reduction : a comparison of four reduction algorithms on select outcome variables

Purpose Accelerometers are recognized as a valid and objective tool to assess free-living physical activity. Despite the widespread use of accelerometers, there is no standardized way to process and summarize data from them, which limits our ability to compare results across studies. This paper a) reviews decision rules researchers have used in the past, b) compares the impact of using different decision rules on a common data set, and c) identifies issues to consider for accelerometer data reduction. Methods The methods sections of studies published in 2003 and 2004 were reviewed to determine what decision rules previous researchers have used to identify wearing period, minimal wear requirement for a valid day, spurious data, number of days used to calculate the outcome variables, and extract bouts of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA). For this study, four data reduction algorithms that employ different decision rules were used to analyze the same data set. Results The review showed that among studies that reported their decision rules, much variability was observed. Overall, the analyses suggested that using different algorithms impacted several important outcome variables. The most stringent algorithm yielded significantly lower wearing time, the lowest activity counts per minute and counts per day, and fewer minutes of MVPA per day. An exploratory sensitivity analysis revealed that the most stringent inclusion criterion had an impact on sample size and wearing time, which in turn affected many outcome variables. Conclusions These findings suggest that the decision rules employed to process accelerometer data have a significant impact on important outcome variables. Until guidelines are developed, it will remain difficult to compare findings across studies

Homogeneous bent functions of degree n in 2n variables do not exist for n>3

We prove that homogeneous bent functions f:GF(2)^2n --> GF(2) of degree n do not exist for n>3. Consequently homogeneous bent functions must have degree 3.

Adverse weather effects on bus ridership

This study focuses on weather effects on daily bus ridership in Brisbane, given bus’ dominance in this city. The weather pattern of Brisbane varies by season according to its sub-tropical climate characteristics. Bus is prone to inclement weather condition as it shares the road system with general traffic. Moreover, bus stops generally offer less or sometimes no protection from adverse weather. Hence, adverse weather conditions such as rain are conjectured to directly impact on daily travel behaviour patterns. There has been limited Australian research on the impact of weather on daily transit ridership. This study investigates the relationship between rainy day and daily bus ridership for the period of 2010 to 2012. Overall, rainfall affects negatively with varying impacts on different transit groups. However, this analysis confirmed a positive relationship between consecutive rainy days (rain continuing for 3 or more days). A possible explanation could be that people may switch their transport mode to bus to avoid high traffic congestion and higher accident potentiality on rainy days. Also, Brisbane’s segregated busway (BRT) corridor works favourably towards this mode choice. Our study findings enhance the fundamental understanding of traveller behaviour, particularly mode choice behaviour under adverse weather conditions.

Durability performance of carbon fibre-reinforced polymer strengthened circular hollow steel members under cold weather

The use of circular hollow steel members has attracted a great deal of attention during past few years because of having excellent structural properties, aesthetic appearance, corrosion and fire protection capability. However, no one can deny the structural deficiency of such structures due to reduction of strength when they are exposed to severe environmental conditions such as marine environment, cold and hot weather. Hence strengthening and retrofitting of structural steel members is now very imperative. This paper presents the findings of a research program that was conducted to study the bond durability of carbon fibre-reinforced polymer (CFRP) strengthened steel tubular members under cold weather and tested under four-point bending. Six number of CFRP-strengthened specimens and one unstrengthened specimen were considered in this program. The three specimens having sand blasted surface to be strengthened was pre-treated with MBrace primer and other three were remained untreated and then cured under ambient temperature at least four weeks and cold weather (3 C) for three and six months period of time. Quasi-static tests were then performed on beams to failure under four-point bending. The structural response of each specimen was predicted in terms of failure load, mid-span deflection, composite beam behaviour and failure mode. The research outcomes show that the cold weather immersion had an adverse effect on durability of CFRP-strengthened steel structures. Moreover, the epoxy based adhesion promoter was found to enhance the bond durability in plastic range. The analytical models presented in this study were found to be in good agreement in terms of predicting ultimate load and deflection. Finally, design factors are proposed to address the short-terms durability performance under cold weather.

A methodological exploration to determine transportation disadvantage variables: the partial least square approach

Determining the key variables of transportation disadvantage remains a great challenge as the variables are commonly selected using ad-hoc techniques. In order to identify the variables, this research develops a transportation disadvantage framework by manipulating the capability approach. Developed framework is statistically analysed using partial least square-based software to determine the framework fitness. The statistical analysis identifies mobility and socioeconomic variables that significantly influence transportation disadvantage. The research reveals the key socioeconomic variables for transportation disadvantage in the case of Brisbane, Australia as household structure, presence of dependent family member, vehicle ownership, and driving licence possession.

Weather variability and influenza A (H7N9) transmission in Shanghai, China: A Bayesian spatial analysis

Abstract Background A novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus was first found in humans in Shanghai, and infected over 433 patients in China. To date, very little is known about the spatiotemporal variability or environmental drivers of the risk of H7N9 infection. This study explored the spatial and temporal variation of H7N9 infection and assessed the effects of temperature and rainfall on H7N9 incidence. Methods A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of the risk of H7N9 infection in Shanghai, by district and fortnight for the period 19th February–14th April 2013. Data on daily laboratory-confirmed H7N9 cases, and weather variability including temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm) were obtained from the Chinese Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention and Chinese Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively, and aggregated by fortnight. Results High spatial variations in the H7N9 risk were mainly observed in the east and centre of Shanghai municipality. H7N9 incidence rate was significantly associated with fortnightly mean temperature (Relative Risk (RR): 1.54; 95% credible interval (CI): 1.22–1.94) and fortnightly mean rainfall (RR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.47–5.56). Conclusion There was a substantial variation in the spatiotemporal distribution of H7N9 infection across different districts in Shanghai. Optimal temperature and rainfall may be one of the driving forces for H7N9.

Copula-based spatial modelling of geometallurgical variables

The most important aspect of modelling a geological variable, such as metal grade, is the spatial correlation. Spatial correlation describes the relationship between realisations of a geological variable sampled at different locations. Any method for spatially modelling such a variable should be capable of accurately estimating the true spatial correlation. Conventional kriged models are the most commonly used in mining for estimating grade or other variables at unsampled locations, and these models use the variogram or covariance function to model the spatial correlations in the process of estimation. However, this usage assumes the relationships of the observations of the variable of interest at nearby locations are only influenced by the vector distance between the locations. This means that these models assume linear spatial correlation of grade. In reality, the relationship with an observation of grade at a nearby location may be influenced by both distance between the locations and the value of the observations (ie non-linear spatial correlation, such as may exist for variables of interest in geometallurgy). Hence this may lead to inaccurate estimation of the ore reserve if a kriged model is used for estimating grade of unsampled locations when nonlinear spatial correlation is present. Copula-based methods, which are widely used in financial and actuarial modelling to quantify the non-linear dependence structures, may offer a solution. This method was introduced by Bárdossy and Li (2008) to geostatistical modelling to quantify the non-linear spatial dependence structure in a groundwater quality measurement network. Their copula-based spatial modelling is applied in this research paper to estimate the grade of 3D blocks. Furthermore, real-world mining data is used to validate this model. These copula-based grade estimates are compared with the results of conventional ordinary and lognormal kriging to present the reliability of this method.

Comparison of kinematic variables obtained by inertial sensors among stroke survivors and healthy older adults in the Functional Reach Test: cross-sectional study

Background Balance dysfunction is one of the most common problems in people who suffer stroke. To parameterize functional tests standardized by inertial sensors have been promoted in applied medicine. The aim of this study was to compare the kinematic variables of the Functional Reach Test (FRT) obtained by two inertial sensors placed on the trunk and lumbar region between stroke survivors (SS) and healthy older adults (HOA) and to analyze the reliability of the kinematic measurements obtained. Methods Cross-sectional study. Five SS and five HOA over 65. A descriptive analysis of the average range as well as all kinematic variables recorded was developed. The intrasubject and intersubject reliability of the measured variables was directly calculated. Results In the same intervals, the angular displacement was greater in the HOA group; however, they were completed at similar times for both groups, and HOA conducted the test at a higher speed and greater acceleration in each of the intervals. The SS values were higher than HOA values in the maximum and minimum acceleration in the trunk and in the lumbar region. Conclusions The SS show less functional reach, a narrower, slower and less accelerated movement during the FRT execution, but with higher peaks of acceleration and speed when they are compared with HOA.

Comparative durability study of CFRP strengthened tubular steel members under cold weather

In strengthening systems, the CFRP (Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymer) materials typically have excellent resistance against environmental conditions; however, the performance of adhesives between CFRP and steel is generally affected by various environmental conditions such as marine environment, cold and hot weather. This paper presents the comparative durability study of CFRP strengthened tubular steel structures by using two different adhesives such as MBrace saturant and Araldite K630 under four-point bending. The program consisted of testing twelve CFRP strengthened specimens having treated with epoxy based adhesion promoter, untreated surface and one unstrengthened specimen and conditioned under cold weather for 3 and 6 months to determine the environmental durability. The beams were then loaded to failure in quasi-static manner under four-point bending. The structural responses of CFRP strengthened tubular steel beams were compared in terms of failure load, stiffness and modes of failure. The research findings show that the cold weather immersion had adversely affected the durability of CFRP strengthened steel members. Design factor is also proposed to address the short-terms durability performance under cold weather.

Correlation between architectural variables and torque in the erector spinae muscle during maximal isometric contraction

This study analysed whether a significant relationship exists between the torque and muscle thickness and pennation angle of the erector spinae muscle during a maximal isometric lumbar extension with the lumbar spine in neutral position. This was a cross-sectional study in which 46 healthy adults performed three repetitions for 5 s of maximal isometric lumbar extension with rests of 90 s. During the lumbar extensions, bilateral ultrasound images of the erector spinae muscle (to measure pennation angle and muscle thickness) and torque were acquired. Reliability test analysis calculating the internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha) of the measure, correlation between pennation angle, muscle thickness and torque extensions were examined. Through a linear regression the contribution of each independent variable (muscle thickness and pennation angle) to the variation of the dependent variable (torque) was calculated. The results of the reliability test were: 0.976–0.979 (pennation angle), 0.980–0.980 (muscle thickness) and 0.994 (torque). The results show that pennation angle and muscle thickness were significantly related to each other with a range between 0.295 and 0.762. In addition, multiple regression analysis showed that the two variables considered in this study explained 68% of the variance in the torque. Pennation angle and muscle thickness have a moderate impact on the variance exerted on the torque during a maximal isometric lumbar extension with the lumbar spine in neutral position.

The modified card sorting test: Test-retest stability and relationships with demographic variables in a healthy older adult sample

Objectives. To investigate the test-retest stability of a standardized version of Nelson's (1976) Modified Card Sorting Test (MCST) and its relationships with demographic variables in a sample of healthy older adults. Design. A standard card order and administration were devised for the MCST and administered to participants at an initial assessment, and again at a second session conducted a minimum of six months later in order to examine its test-retest stability. Participants were also administered the WAIS-R at initial assessment in order to provide a measure of psychometric intelligence. Methods. Thirty-six (24 female, 12 male) healthy older adults aged 52 to 77 years with mean education 12.42 years (SD = 3.53) completed the MCST on two occasions approximately 7.5 months (SD = 1.61) apart. Stability coefficients and test-retest differences were calculated for the range of scores. The effect of gender on MCST performance was examined. Correlations between MCST scores and age, education and WAIS-R IQs were also determined. Results. Stability coefficients ranged from .26 for the percent perseverative errors measure to .49 for the failure to maintain set measure. Several measures were significantly correlated with age, education and WAIS-R IQs, although no effect of gender on MCST performance was found. Conclusions. None of the stability coefficients reached the level required for clinical decision making. The results indicate that participants' age, education, and intelligence need to be considered when interpreting MCST performance. Normative studies of MCST performance as well as further studies with patients with executive dysfunction are needed.