The problem of measurement indeterminacy in complex neurobiological movement systems

In the study of complex neurobiological movement systems, measurement indeterminacy has typically been overcome by imposing artificial modelling constraints to reduce the number of unknowns (e.g., reducing all muscle, bone and ligament forces crossing a joint to a single vector). However, this approach prevents human movement scientists from investigating more fully the role, functionality and ubiquity of coordinative structures or functional motor synergies. Advancements in measurement methods and analysis techniques are required if the contribution of individual component parts or degrees of freedom of these task-specific structural units is to be established, thereby effectively solving the indeterminacy problem by reducing the number of unknowns. A further benefit of establishing more of the unknowns is that human movement scientists will be able to gain greater insight into ubiquitous processes of physical self-organising that underpin the formation of coordinative structures and the confluence of organismic, environmental and task constraints that determine the exact morphology of these special-purpose devices.

Monitoring the Performance of Complex Projects from Multiple Perspectives over Multiple Time Frames

When complex projects go wrong they can go horribly wrong with severe financial consequences. We are undertaking research to develop leading performance indicators for complex projects, metrics to provide early warning of potential difficulties. The assessment of success of complex projects can be made by a range of stakeholders over different time scales, against different levels of project results: the project’s outputs at the end of the project; the project’s outcomes in the months following project completion; and the project’s impact in the years following completion. We aim to identify leading performance indicators, which may include both success criteria and success factors, and which can be measured by the project team during project delivery to forecast success as assessed by key stakeholders in the days, months and years following the project. The hope is the leading performance indicators will act as alarm bells to show if a project is diverting from plan so early corrective action can be taken. It may be that different combinations of the leading performance indicators will be appropriate depending on the nature of project complexity. In this paper we develop a new model of project success, whereby success is assessed by different stakeholders over different time frames against different levels of project results. We then relate this to measurements that can be taken during project delivery. A methodology is described to evaluate the early parts of this model. Its implications and limitations are described. This paper describes work in progress.

Fingerprinting of complex mixtures with the use of high performance liquid chromatography, inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy and chemometrics

The molecular and metal profile fingerprints were obtained from a complex substance, Atractylis chinensis DC—a traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), with the use of the high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy (ICP-AES) techniques. This substance was used in this work as an example of a complex biological material, which has found application as a TCM. Such TCM samples are traditionally processed by the Bran, Cut, Fried and Swill methods, and were collected from five provinces in China. The data matrices obtained from the two types of analysis produced two principal component biplots, which showed that the HPLC fingerprint data were discriminated on the basis of the methods for processing the raw TCM, while the metal analysis grouped according to the geographical origin. When the two data matrices were combined into a one two-way matrix, the resulting biplot showed a clear separation on the basis of the HPLC fingerprints. Importantly, within each different grouping the objects separated according to their geographical origin, and they ranked approximately in the same order in each group. This result suggested that by using such an approach, it is possible to derive improved characterisation of the complex TCM materials on the basis of the two kinds of analytical data. In addition, two supervised pattern recognition methods, K-nearest neighbors (KNNs) method, and linear discriminant analysis (LDA), were successfully applied to the individual data matrices—thus, supporting the PCA approach.

Contracting-out asset maintenance : how arrangements adapt over time

Technological and societal change, along with organisational and market change (driven by contracting-out and privatisation), are “creating a new generation of infrastructures” [1]. While inter-organisational contractual arrangements can improve maintenance efficiency through consistent and repeatable patterns of action - unanticipated difficulties in implementation can reduce the performance of these arrangements. When faced with unsatisfactory performance of contracting-out arrangements, government organisations may choose to adapt and change these arrangements over time, with the aim of improving performance. This paper enhances our understanding of ‘next generation infrastructures’ by examining adaptation of the organisational arrangements for the maintenance of these assets, in a case study spanning 20 years.

Condition-based prognosis of machine health

Modern machines are complex and often required to operate long hours to achieve production targets. The ability to detect symptoms of failure, hence, forecasting the remaining useful life of the machine is vital to prevent catastrophic failures. This is essential to reducing maintenance cost, operation downtime and safety hazard. Recent advances in condition monitoring technologies have given rise to a number of prognosis models that attempt to forecast machinery health based on either condition data or reliability data. In practice, failure condition trending data are seldom kept by industries and data that ended with a suspension are sometimes treated as failure data. This paper presents a novel approach of incorporating historical failure data and suspended condition trending data in the prognostic model. The proposed model consists of a FFNN whose training targets are asset survival probabilities estimated using a variation of Kaplan-Meier estimator and degradation-based failure PDF estimator. The output survival probabilities collectively form an estimated survival curve. The viability of the model was tested using a set of industry vibration data.

Development of lifetime warranty policies and models for estimating costs

In today's fiercely competitive products market, product warranty has started playing an important role. The warranty period offered by the manufacturer/dealer has been progressively increasing since the beginning of the 20th Century. Currently, a large number of products are being sold with long-term warranty policies in the form of extended warranty, warranty for used products, service contracts and lifetime warranty policies. Lifetime warranties are relatively a new concept. The modelling of failures during the warranty period and the costs for such policies are complex since the lifespan in these policies are not defined well and it is often difficult to tell about life measures for the longer period of coverage due to usage pattern/maintenance activities undertaken and uncertainties of costs over the period. This paper focuses on defining lifetime, developing lifetime warranty policies and models for predicting failures and estimating costs for lifetime warranty policies.

On the affinity of Chuaria–Tawuia complex : a multidisciplinary study

In this study, biometric and structural engineering tool have been used to examine a possible relationship within Chuaria–Tawuia complex and micro-FTIR (Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy) analyses to understand the biological affinity of Chuaria circularis Walcott, collected from the Mesoproterozoic Suket Shales of the Vindhyan Supergroup and the Neoproterozoic Halkal Shales of the Bhima Group of peninsular India. Biometric analyses of well preserved carbonized specimens show wide variation in morphology and uni-modal distribution. We believe and demonstrate to a reasonable extent that C. circularis most likely was a part of Tawuia-like cylindrical body of algal origin. Specimens with notch/cleft and overlapping preservation, mostly recorded in the size range of 3–5 mm, are of special interest. Five different models proposed earlier on the life cycle of C. circularis are discussed. A new model, termed as ‘Hybrid model’ based on present multidisciplinary study assessing cylindrical and spherical shapes suggesting variable cell wall strength and algal affinity is proposed. This model discusses and demonstrates varied geometrical morphologies assumed by Chuaria and Tawuia, and also shows the inter-relationship of Chuaria–Tawuia complex. Structural engineering tool (thin walled pressure vessel theory) was applied to investigate the implications of possible geometrical shapes (sphere and cylinder), membrane (cell wall) stresses and ambient pressure environment on morphologically similar C. circularis and Tawuia. The results suggest that membrane stresses developed on the structures similar to Chuaria–Tawuia complex were directly proportional to radius and inversely proportional to the thickness in both cases. In case of hollow cylindrical structure, the membrane stresses in circumferential direction (hoop stress) are twice of the longitudinal direction indicating that rupture or fragmentation in the body of Tawuia would have occurred due to hoop stress. It appears that notches and discontinuities seen in some of the specimens of Chuaria may be related to rupture suggesting their possible location in 3D Chuaria. The micro-FTIR spectra of C. circularis are characterized by both aliphatic and aromatic absorption bands. The aliphaticity is indicated by prominent alkyl group bands between 2800–3000 and 1300–1500 cm−1. The prominent absorption signals at 700–900 cm−1 (peaking at 875 and 860 cm−1) are due to aromatic CH out of plane deformation. A narrow, strong band is centred at 1540 cm−1 which could be COOH band. The presence of strong aliphatic bands in FTIR spectra suggests that the biogeopolymer of C. circularis is of aliphatic nature. The wall chemistry indicates the presence of ‘algaenan’—a biopolymer of algae.

Estimating interactive coefficients for analysing interactive failures

Engineering assets are often complex systems. In a complex system, components often have failure interactions which lead to interactive failures. A system with interactive failures may lead to an increased failure probability. Hence, one may have to take the interactive failures into account when designing and maintaining complex engineering systems. To address this issue, Sun et al have developed an analytical model for the interactive failures. In this model, the degree of interaction between two components is represented by interactive coefficients. To use this model for failure analysis, the related interactive coefficients must be estimated. However, methods for estimating the interactive coefficients have not been reported. To fill this gap, this paper presents five methods to estimate the interactive coefficients including probabilistic method; failure data based analysis method; laboratory experimental method; failure interaction mechanism based method; and expert estimation method. Examples are given to demonstrate the applications of the proposed methods. Comparisons among these methods are also presented.

Failure analysis of engineering systems with preventive maintenance and failure interactions

Optimal operation and maintenance of engineering systems heavily rely on the accurate prediction of their failures. Most engineering systems, especially mechanical systems, are susceptible to failure interactions. These failure interactions can be estimated for repairable engineering systems when determining optimal maintenance strategies for these systems. An extended Split System Approach is developed in this paper. The technique is based on the Split System Approach and a model for interactive failures. The approach was applied to simulated data. The results indicate that failure interactions will increase the hazard of newly repaired components. The intervals of preventive maintenance actions of a system with failure interactions, will become shorter compared with scenarios where failure interactions do not exist.

The structure of the copper(II) complex with 4,5-dichlorophthalic acid: The 1:1 complex 'adduct' salt trans-tetraaqua(2-carboxy-4,5-dichlorobenzoato)(4,5-dichlorobenzene-1,2-dicarboxylic acid)copper(II) 2-carboxy-4,5-dichlorobenzoate

The unusual (1:1) complex ‘adduct’ salt of copper(II) with 4,5-dichlorophthalic acid (H2DCPA), having formula [Cu(H2O)4(C8H3Cl2O4) (C8H4Cl2O4)] . (C8H3Cl2O4) has been synthesized and characterized using single-crystal X-ray diffraction. Crystals are monoclinic, space group P21/c, with Z = 4 in a cell with dimensions a = 20.1376(7), b =12.8408(4) c = 12.1910(4) Å, β = 105.509(4)o. The complex is based on discrete tetragonally distorted octahedral [CuO6] coordination centres with the four water ligands occupying the square planar sites [Cu-O, 1.962(4)-1.987(4) Å] and the monodentate carboxyl-O donors of two DCPA ligand species in the axial sites. The first of these bonds [Cu-O, 2.341(4) Å] is with an oxygen of a HDCPA monoanion, the second with an oxygen of a H2DCPA acid species [Cu-O, 2.418(4) Å]. The un-coordinated ‘adduct’ molecule is a HDCPA counter anion which is strongly hydrogen-bonded to the coordinated H2DCPA ligand [O… O, 2.503(6) Å] while a number of peripheral intra- and intermolecular hydrogen-bonding interactions give a two-dimensional network structure.

Technical note : modelling a complex micro-multileaf collimator using the standard BEAMnrc distribution

Purpose: The component modules in the standard BEAMnrc distribution may appear to be insufficient to model micro-multileaf collimators that have tri-faceted leaf ends and complex leaf profiles. This note indicates, however, that accurate Monte Carlo simulations of radiotherapy beams defined by a complex collimation device can be completed using BEAMnrc's standard VARMLC component module.---------- Methods: That this simple collimator model can produce spatially and dosimetrically accurate micro-collimated fields is illustrated using comparisons with ion chamber and film measurements of the dose deposited by square and irregular fields incident on planar, homogeneous water phantoms.---------- Results: Monte Carlo dose calculations for on- and off-axis fields are shown to produce good agreement with experimental values, even upon close examination of the penumbrae.--------- Conclusions: The use of a VARMLC model of the micro-multileaf collimator, along with a commissioned model of the associated linear accelerator, is therefore recommended as an alternative to the development or use of in-house or third-party component modules for simulating stereotactic radiotherapy and radiosurgery treatments. Simulation parameters for the VARMLC model are provided which should allow other researchers to adapt and use this model to study clinical stereotactic radiotherapy treatments.

Integrated Bayesian network frameworks for modelling complex ecological issues

Ecological problems are typically multi faceted and need to be addressed from a scientific and a management perspective. There is a wealth of modelling and simulation software available, each designed to address a particular aspect of the issue of concern. Choosing the appropriate tool, making sense of the disparate outputs, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing the ecologist and environmental manager. Bayesian Networks provide a statistical modelling framework that enables analysis and integration of information in its own right as well as integration of a variety of models addressing different aspects of a common overall problem. There has been increased interest in the use of BNs to model environmental systems and issues of concern. However, the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilising dynamic and object oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. Such features are particularly appealing in an ecological context, since the underlying facts are often spatial and temporal in nature. This thesis focuses on an integrated BN approach which facilitates OO modelling. Our research devises a new heuristic method, the Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle (IBNDC), for the development of BN models within a multi-field and multi-expert context. Expert elicitation is a popular method used to quantify BNs when data is sparse, but expert knowledge is abundant. The resulting BNs need to be substantiated and validated taking this uncertainty into account. Our research demonstrates the application of the IBNDC approach to support these aspects of BN modelling. The complex nature of environmental issues makes them ideal case studies for the proposed integrated approach to modelling. Moreover, they lend themselves to a series of integrated sub-networks describing different scientific components, combining scientific and management perspectives, or pooling similar contributions developed in different locations by different research groups. In southern Africa the two largest free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations are in Namibia and Botswana, where the majority of cheetahs are located outside protected areas. Consequently, cheetah conservation in these two countries is focussed primarily on the free-ranging populations as well as the mitigation of conflict between humans and cheetahs. In contrast, in neighbouring South Africa, the majority of cheetahs are found in fenced reserves. Nonetheless, conflict between humans and cheetahs remains an issue here. Conservation effort in South Africa is also focussed on managing the geographically isolated cheetah populations as one large meta-population. Relocation is one option among a suite of tools used to resolve human-cheetah conflict in southern Africa. Successfully relocating captured problem cheetahs, and maintaining a viable free-ranging cheetah population, are two environmental issues in cheetah conservation forming the first case study in this thesis. The second case study involves the initiation of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a blue-green algae, in Deception Bay, Australia. L. majuscula is a toxic algal bloom which has severe health, ecological and economic impacts on the community located in the vicinity of this algal bloom. Deception Bay is an important tourist destination with its proximity to Brisbane, Australia’s third largest city. Lyngbya is one of several algae considered to be a Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB). This group of algae includes other widespread blooms such as red tides. The occurrence of Lyngbya blooms is not a local phenomenon, but blooms of this toxic weed occur in coastal waters worldwide. With the increase in frequency and extent of these HAB blooms, it is important to gain a better understanding of the underlying factors contributing to the initiation and sustenance of these blooms. This knowledge will contribute to better management practices and the identification of those management actions which could prevent or diminish the severity of these blooms.