A comparison of alternative bankruptcy prediction models

Early models of bankruptcy prediction employed financial ratios drawn from pre-bankruptcy financial statements and performed well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Since then there has been an ongoing effort in the literature to develop models with even greater predictive performance. A significant innovation in the literature was the introduction into bankruptcy prediction models of capital market data such as excess stock returns and stock return volatility, along with the application of the Black–Scholes–Merton option-pricing model. In this note, we test five key bankruptcy models from the literature using an upto- date data set and find that they each contain unique information regarding the probability of bankruptcy but that their performance varies over time. We build a new model comprising key variables from each of the five models and add a new variable that proxies for the degree of diversification within the firm. The degree of diversification is shown to be negatively associated with the risk of bankruptcy. This more general model outperforms the existing models in a variety of in-sample and out-of-sample tests.

The global division of labour and the division in global labour

Since the 1980s the locus of manufacturing and some services have moved to countries of the Global South. Liberalization of trade and investment has added two billion people to world labour supply and brought workers everywhere into intense competition with each other. Under orthodox neoliberal and neoclassical approaches free trade and open investment should benefit all countries and lead to convergence. However considerable differences in wages and working hours exist between workers of the Global North and those of the Global South. The organising question for the thesis is why workers in different countries but the same industries get different wages. Empirical evidence reviewed in the thesis shows that productivity does not explain these wage differences and that workers in some parts of the South are more productive than workers in the North. Part of the thesis examines the usefulness of explanations drawn from Marxist, institutionalist and global commodity chain approaches. There is a long established argument in Marxist and neo-Marxist writings that differences between North and South result from imperialism and the exercise of power. This is the starting point to review ways of understanding divisions between workers as the outcome of a global class structure. In turn, a fault line is postulated between productive and unproductive labour that largely replicates the division between the Global North and the Global South. Workers and their organizations need shared actions if they are to resist global competition and wage disparities. Solidarity has been the clarion of progressive movements from the Internationals of the early C19th through to the current Global Unions and International Confederation of Trade Unions (ICTU). The thesis examines how nationalism and particular interests have undermined solidarity and reviews the major implications for current efforts to establish and advance a global labour position.

Cellulosic ethanol from sugarcane bagasse in Australia : exploring industry feasibility through systems analysis, techno-economic assessment and pilot plant development

Overcoming many of the constraints to early stage investment in biofuels production from sugarcane bagasse in Australia requires an understanding of the complex technical, economic and systemic challenges associated with the transition of established sugar industry structures from single product agri-businesses to new diversified multi-product biorefineries. While positive investment decisions in new infrastructure requires technically feasible solutions and the attainment of project economic investment thresholds, many other systemic factors will influence the investment decision. These factors include the interrelationships between feedstock availability and energy use, competing product alternatives, technology acceptance and perceptions of project uncertainty and risk. This thesis explores the feasibility of a new cellulosic ethanol industry in Australia based on the large sugarcane fibre (bagasse) resource available. The research explores industry feasibility from multiple angles including the challenges of integrating ethanol production into an established sugarcane processing system, scoping the economic drivers and key variables relating to bioethanol projects and considering the impact of emerging technologies in improving industry feasibility. The opportunities available from pilot scale technology demonstration are also addressed. Systems analysis techniques are used to explore the interrelationships between the existing sugarcane industry and the developing cellulosic biofuels industry. This analysis has resulted in the development of a conceptual framework for a bagassebased cellulosic ethanol industry in Australia and uses this framework to assess the uncertainty in key project factors and investment risk. The analysis showed that the fundamental issue affecting investment in a cellulosic ethanol industry from sugarcane in Australia is the uncertainty in the future price of ethanol and government support that reduces the risks associated with early stage investment is likely to be necessary to promote commercialisation of this novel technology. Comprehensive techno-economic models have been developed and used to assess the potential quantum of ethanol production from sugarcane in Australia, to assess the feasibility of a soda-based biorefinery at the Racecourse Sugar Mill in Mackay, Queensland and to assess the feasibility of reducing the cost of production of fermentable sugars from the in-planta expression of cellulases in sugarcane in Australia. These assessments show that ethanol from sugarcane in Australia has the potential to make a significant contribution to reducing Australia’s transportation fuel requirements from fossil fuels and that economically viable projects exist depending upon assumptions relating to product price, ethanol taxation arrangements and greenhouse gas emission reduction incentives. The conceptual design and development of a novel pilot scale cellulosic ethanol research and development facility is also reported in this thesis. The establishment of this facility enables the technical and economic feasibility of new technologies to be assessed in a multi-partner, collaborative environment. As a key outcome of this work, this study has delivered a facility that will enable novel cellulosic ethanol technologies to be assessed in a low investment risk environment, reducing the potential risks associated with early stage investment in commercial projects and hence promoting more rapid technology uptake. While the study has focussed on an exploration of the feasibility of a commercial cellulosic ethanol industry from sugarcane in Australia, many of the same key issues will be of relevance to other sugarcane industries throughout the world seeking diversification of revenue through the implementation of novel cellulosic ethanol technologies.

A first stage test of Dunning's framework on multinational contracting into Australia : reviewing secondary data.

In response to the need to leverage private finance and the lack of competition in some parts of the Australian public sector infrastructure market, especially in the very large economic infrastructure sector procured using Pubic Private Partnerships, the Australian Federal government has demonstrated its desire to attract new sources of in-bound foreign direct investment (FDI). This paper aims to report on progress towards an investigation into the determinants of multinational contractors’ willingness to bid for Australian public sector major infrastructure projects. This research deploys Dunning’s eclectic theory for the first time in terms of in-bound FDI by multinational contractors into Australia. Elsewhere, the authors have developed Dunning’s principal hypothesis to suit the context of this research and to address a weakness arising in this hypothesis that is based on a nominal approach to the factors in Dunning's eclectic framework and which fails to speak to the relative explanatory power of these factors. In this paper, a first stage test of the authors' development of Dunning's hypothesis is presented by way of an initial review of secondary data vis-à-vis the selected sector (roads and bridges) in Australia (as the host location) and with respect to four selected home countries (China; Japan; Spain; and US). In doing so, the next stage in the research method concerning sampling and case studies is also further developed and described in this paper. In conclusion, the extent to which the initial review of secondary data suggests the relative importance of the factors in the eclectic framework is considered. It is noted that more robust conclusions are expected following the future planned stages of the research including primary data from the case studies and a global survey of the world’s largest contractors and which is briefly previewed. Finally, and beyond theoretical contributions expected from the overall approach taken to developing and testing Dunning’s framework, other expected contributions concerning research method and practical implications are mentioned.

SOA for business networks - service delivery framework

The next generation of SOA needs to scale for flexible service consumption, beyond organizational boundaries and current B2B applications, into communities, eco-systems, and business networks. In the wider and, ultimately, global settings, new capabilities are needed so that business partners can efficiently and reliably enable, adapt, and expose services where they can be discovered, ordered, consumed, metered, and paid for, through new applications and opportunities, driven by third parties in the global "village". This trend is already underway, in different ways, through various early adopter market segments. For the small medium enterprises segment, Google, Intuit-Microsoft, and others have launched appstores, through which an open-ended array of hosted applications are sourced from the development community and procured as maketplace commondities. In the corporate sector, the marketplace model and business network hubs are being put in place on top of connectivity and network orchestration investments for capitalizing services as tradable assets, seen in banking/finance (e.g. American Express Intelligent Marketplace), logistics (e.g., the E2open hub), and the public sector (e.g., UK DirectGov whole-of-government citizen services delivery).

Managing an ageing third sector workforce: international and local perspectives

Australia, like all developed and most developing countries, is facing major contextual changes, one of which is an ageing population, largely through declining fertility and increasing longevity (WHO 2002). This will impact on most aspects of global, national, local, community, family and individual interactions and decision-making, including for the nonprofit sector. The sector should be aware that population ageing is increasingly being addressed in public finance and policy agendas within Australia (see, for example, Intergenerational Report 2002-3), as well as by governments in countries such as the United Kingdom, United States and New Zealand, and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and European Economic Policy Committee (EEPC).

Corporate governance and misappropriation

This study examines the occurrence of misappropriation-type fraud within Australian listed firms and the relation between the incidence of this type of fraud and a firm's governance strength. We measure governance strength using factors relating to traditional corporate governance, such as board composition, CEO duality, and audit committee composition, as well as factors relating to information technology governance. In our study, we use actual dollar amount of fraud reported by listed companies responding to the 2004 KPMG Fraud Survey as one of three different misappropriation measures and publicly available firm-specific data to measure the other variables in the model. Our study found that where the chief executive officer (CEO) also holds the position of chairperson of the board of directors, the likelihood of fraud increases. We also find that the greater the number of independent directors on the audit committee, the lower the level of fraud. Taken together, these results are particularly encouraging as they provide support for regulatory bodies such as the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) and the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC), which place considerable emphasis on the importance of establishing good corporate governance practices. The study provides empirical evidence that employing good corporate governance reduces the risk of the misappropriation of assets.

The Creative Industries, Culture and Policy

The rise of creative industries requires new thinking in communication, media and cultural studies, media and cultural policy, and the arts and information sectors. The Creative Industries, Culture and Policy sets the agenda for these debates, providing a richer understanding of the dynamics of cultural markets, creative labor, finance and risk, and how culture is distributed, marketed and creatively reused through new media technologies. This book: develops a global perspective on the creative industries and creative economy draws insights from media and cultural studies, innovation economics, cultural policy studies, and economic and cultural geography explores what it means for policy-makers when culture and creativity move from the margins to the center of economic dynamics makes extensive use of case studies in ways that are relevant not only to researchers and policy-makers, but also to the generation of students who will increasingly be establishing a ‘portfolio career’ in the creative industries. International in coverage, The Creative Industries traces the historical and contemporary ideas that make the cultural economy more relevant that it has ever been. It is essential reading for students and academics in media, communication and cultural studies. Table of Contents - Introduction - Origins of Creative Industries Policy - International Models of Creative Industries Policy - From Culture Industries to Cultural Economy - Products, Services, Production and Creative Work - Consumption, Markets, Technology and Cultural Trade - Globalization, Cities and Creative Spaces - Creative Industries and Public Policy - Conclusion

Defining food literacy, its components, development and relationship to food intake : A case study of young people and disadvantage

This report documents the results of a qualitative study of young people experiencing disadvantage who are responsible for feeding themselves. The purpose of the study was to explore the knowledge, skills and behaviours they use in their day to day eating. The results of this study were considered alongside those of an earlier study of Australian food experts in order to develop a definition of food literacy, identify its components and propose a model for its relationship with diet quality and chronic disease. This young people's study also examined how young people's relationship with food developed and its relationship with the social determinants of health. This report will help practitioners working in food literacy better target their practice and investment.

Making space for knowledge generation and place for knowledge communities : an analysis of the Australian practice

In the era of global knowledge economy, urban regions—seeking to increase their competitive edge, become destinations for talent and investment, and provide prosperity and quality of life to their inhabitants—have little chance achieving their development goals without forming effective knowledge-based urban development strategies. This paper aims to shed light on the planning and development processes of the knowledge-based urban development phenomenon with respect to the construction of knowledge community precincts aimed at making space for knowledge generation and place for knowledge communities. Following to a thorough review of the literature on knowledge-based urban development and strategic asset-based planning, the paper undertakes policy and best practice analyses to learn from the planning and development processes of internationally renowned knowledge community precincts—from Copenhagen, Eindhoven and Singapore. In the light of the analyses findings, this paper scrutinises major Australian knowledge community precinct initiatives—from Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane—to better understand the dynamics of national practices, and benchmark them against the international best practice cases. The paper concludes with a discussion on the study findings and recommendations for successfully establishing space and place for both knowledge economy and society in Australian cities.

Challenges for rural and remote road safety

The growing national and international awareness of the increased representation of serious injuries and fatalities in rural and remote areas is the focus of this paper. Australia was one of the earliest countries to try to address this issue with a targeted national action plan in 1996. This was an important document but the most recent national plan fails to dedicate attention to developing countermeasures for the particular problems of improving road safety in these regions. The findings of a major program of research in Northern Queensland are discussed to stimulate interest and research into potential countermeasures. Specifically, the need to monitor clusters of crashes as a focus for intervention and local ownership is advocated. Taking action towards a national reduction of speed limits on rural roads and investment in proactive research based trials of drink driving countermeasures such as courtesy buses is strongly advocated.

The analytical solution and numerical solution of the fractional diffusion-wave equation with damping

Fractional partial differential equations have been applied to many problems in physics, finance, and engineering. Numerical methods and error estimates of these equations are currently a very active area of research. In this paper we consider a fractional diffusionwave equation with damping. We derive the analytical solution for the equation using the method of separation of variables. An implicit difference approximation is constructed. Stability and convergence are proved by the energy method. Finally, two numerical examples are presented to show the effectiveness of this approximation.