Comparison of scoring systems for invasive pests using ROC analysis and Monte Carlo simulation

Different international plant protection organisations advocate different schemes for conducting pest risk assessments. Most of these schemes use structured questionnaire in which experts are asked to score several items using an ordinal scale. The scores are then combined using a range of procedures, such as simple arithmetic mean, weighted averages, multiplication of scores, and cumulative sums. The most useful schemes will correctly identify harmful pests and identify ones that are not. As the quality of a pest risk assessment can depend on the characteristics of the scoring system used by the risk assessors (i.e., on the number of points of the scale and on the method used for combining the component scores), it is important to assess and compare the performance of different scoring systems. In this article, we proposed a new method for assessing scoring systems. Its principle is to simulate virtual data using a stochastic model and, then, to estimate sensitivity and specificity values from these data for different scoring systems. The interest of our approach was illustrated in a case study where several scoring systems were compared. Data for this analysis were generated using a probabilistic model describing the pest introduction process. The generated data were then used to simulate the outcome of scoring systems and to assess the accuracy of the decisions about positive and negative introduction. The results showed that ordinal scales with at most 5 or 6 points were sufficient and that the multiplication-based scoring systems performed better than their sum-based counterparts. The proposed method could be used in the future to assess a great diversity of scoring systems.

Investigation of stereotactic radiotherapy dose using dosimetry film and Monte Carlo simulations

This study uses dosimetry film measurements and Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the accuracy of type-a (pencil-beam) dose calculations for predicting the radiation doses delivered during stereotactic radiotherapy treatments of the brain. It is shown that when evaluating doses in a water phantom, the type-a algorithm provides dose predictions which are accurate to within clinically relevant criteria, gamma(3%,3mm), but these predictions are nonetheless subtly different from the results of evaluating doses from the same fields using radiochromic film and Monte Carlo simulations. An analysis of a clinical meningioma treatment suggests that when predicting stereotactic radiotherapy doses to the brain, the inaccuracies of the type-a algorithm can be exacerbated by inadequate evaluation of the effects of nearby bone or air, resulting in dose differences of up to 10% for individual fields. The results of this study indicate the possible advantage of using Monte Carlo calculations, as well as measurements with high-spatial resolution media, to verify type-a predictions of dose delivered in cranial treatments.

Latent degradation indicators estimation and prediction : a Monte Carlo approach

Asset health inspections can produce two types of indicators: (1) direct indicators (e.g. the thickness of a brake pad, and the crack depth on a gear) which directly relate to a failure mechanism; and (2) indirect indicators (e.g. the indicators extracted from vibration signals and oil analysis data) which can only partially reveal a failure mechanism. While direct indicators enable more precise references to asset health condition, they are often more difficult to obtain than indirect indicators. The state space model provides an efficient approach to estimating direct indicators by using indirect indicators. However, existing state space models to estimate direct indicators largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires fixed inspection intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This paper proposes a state space model without these assumptions. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate the model parameters and the remaining useful life. These algorithms are evaluated for performance using numerical simulations through MATLAB. The result shows that both the parameters and the remaining useful life are estimated accurately. Finally, the new state space model is used to process vibration and crack depth data from an accelerated test of a gearbox. During this application, the new state space model shows a better fitness result than the state space model with linear and Gaussian assumption.

Equity in the twenty-first century

Issues of equity and inequity have always been part of employment relations and are a fundamental part of the industrial landscape. For example, in most countries in the nineteenth century and a large part of the twentieth century women and members of ethnic groups (often a minority in the workforce) were barred from certain occupations, industries or work locations, and received less pay than the dominant male ethnic group for the same work. In recent decades attention has been focused on issues of equity between groups, predominantly women and different ethnic groups in the workforce. This has been embodied in industrial legislation, for example in equal pay for women and men, and frequently in specific equity legislation. In this way a whole new area of law and associated workplace practice has developed in many countries. Historically, employment relations and industrial relations research has not examined employment issues disaggregated by gender or ethnic group. Born out of concern with conflict and regulation at the workplace, studies tended to concentrate on white, male, unionized workers in manufacturing and heavy industry (Ackers, 2002, p. 4). The influential systems model crafted by Dunlop (1958) gave rise to The discipline’s preoccupation with the ‘problem of order’ [which] ensures the invisibility of women, not only because women have generally been less successful in mobilizing around their own needs and discontents, but more profoundly because this approach identifies the employment relationship as the ultimate source of power and conflict at work (Forrest, 1993, p. 410). While ‘the system approach does not deliberately exclude gender . . . by reproducing a very narrow research approach and understanding of issues of relevance for the research, gender is in general excluded or looked on as something of peripheral interest’ (Hansen, 2002, p. 198). However, long-lived patterns of gender segregation in occupations and industries, together with discriminatory access to work and social views about women and ethnic groups in the paid workforce, mean that the employment experience of women and ethnic groups is frequently quite different to that of men in the dominant ethnic group. Since the 1980s, research into women and employment has figured in the employment relations literature, but it is often relegated to a separate category in specific articles or book chapters, with women implicitly or explicitly seen as the atypical or exceptional worker (Hansen, 2002; Wajcman, 2000). The same conclusion can be reached for other groups with different labour force patterns and employment outcomes. This chapter proposes that awareness of equity issues is central to employment relations. Like industrial relations legislation and approaches, each country will have a unique set of equity policies and legislation, reflecting their history and culture. Yet while most books on employment and industrial relations deal with issues of equity in a separate chapter (most commonly on equity for women or more recently on ‘diversity’), the reality in the workplace is that all types of legislation and policies which impact on the wages and working conditions interact, and their impact cannot be disentangled one from another. When discussing equity in workplaces in the twenty-first century we are now faced with a plethora of different terms in English. Terms used include discrimination, equity, equal opportunity, affirmative action and diversity with all its variants (workplace diversity, managing diversity, and so on). There is a lack of agreed definitions, particularly when the terms are used outside of a legislative context. This ‘shifting linguistic terrain’ (Kennedy-Dubourdieu, 2006b, p. 3) varies from country to country and changes over time even within the one country. There is frequently a division made between equity and its related concepts and the range of expressions using the term ‘diversity’ (Wilson and Iles, 1999; Thomas and Ely, 1996). These present dilemmas for practitioners and researchers due to the amount and range of ideas prevalent – and the breadth of issues that are covered when we say ‘equity and diversity in employment’. To add to these dilemmas, the literature on equity and diversity has become bifurcated: the literature on workplace diversity/management diversity appears largely in the business literature while that on equity in employment appears frequently in legal and industrial relations journals. Workplaces of the twenty-first century differ from those of the nineteenth and twentieth century not only in the way they deal with individual and group differences but also in the way they interpret what are fair and equitable outcomes for different individuals and groups. These variations are the result of a range of social conditions, legislation and workplace constraints that have influenced the development of employment equity and the management of diversity. Attempts to achieve employment equity have primarily been dealt with through legislative means, and in the last fifty years this legislation has included elements of anti-discrimination, affirmative action, and equal employment opportunity in virtually all OECD countries (Mor Barak, 2005, pp. 17–52). Established on human rights and social justice principles, this legislation is based on the premise that systemic discrimination has and/or continues to exist in the labour force and particular groups of citizens have less advantageous employment outcomes. It is based on group identity, and employment equity programmes in general apply across all workplaces and are mandatory. The more recent notions of diversity in the workplace are based on ideas coming principally from the USA in the 1980s which have spread widely in the Western world since the 1990s. Broadly speaking, diversity ideas focus on individual differences either on their own or in concert with the idea of group differences. The diversity literature is based on a business case: that is diversity is profitable in a variety of ways for business, and generally lacks a social justice or human rights justification (Burgess et al., 2009, pp. 81–2). Managing diversity is represented at the organizational level as a voluntary and local programme. This chapter discusses some major models and theories for equity and diversity. It begins by charting the history of ideas about equity in employment and then briefly discusses what is meant by equality and equity. The chapter then analyses the major debates about the ways in which equity can be achieved. The more recent ideas about diversity are then discussed, including the history of these ideas and the principles which guide this concept. The following section discusses both major frameworks of equity and diversity. The chapter then raises some ways in which insights from the equity and diversity literature can inform employment relations. Finally, the future of equity and diversity ideas is discussed.

A Python package for Bayesian estimation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation provides a solution to the complex integration problems that are faced in the Bayesian analysis of statistical problems. The implementation of MCMC algorithms is, however, code intensive and time consuming. We have developed a Python package, which is called PyMCMC, that aids in the construction of MCMC samplers and helps to substantially reduce the likelihood of coding error, as well as aid in the minimisation of repetitive code. PyMCMC contains classes for Gibbs, Metropolis Hastings, independent Metropolis Hastings, random walk Metropolis Hastings, orientational bias Monte Carlo and slice samplers as well as specific modules for common models such as a module for Bayesian regression analysis. PyMCMC is straightforward to optimise, taking advantage of the Python libraries Numpy and Scipy, as well as being readily extensible with C or Fortran.

A sequential Monte Carlo approach to design for population pharmacokinetics studies

Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo approach that can be used to find optimal designs. Our focus is on the design of phase III clinical trials where the derivation of sampling windows is required, along with the optimal sampling schedule. The search is conducted via a particle filter which traverses a sequence of target distributions artificially constructed via an annealed utility. The algorithm derives a catalogue of highly efficient designs which, not only contain the optimal, but can also be used to derive sampling windows. We demonstrate our approach by designing a hypothetical phase III clinical trial.

Re-conceptualising and re-positioning Australian library and information science education for the 21st century [Final Report 2011]

How can Australian library and information science (LIS) education produce, in a sustainable manner, the diverse supply of graduates with the appropriate attributes to develop and maintain high quality professional practice in the rapidly changing 21st century? This report presents the key findings of a project that has examined this question through research into future directions for LIS education in Australia. Titled Re-conceptualising and re-positioning Australian library and information science education for the twenty-first century, the purpose of the project was to establish a consolidated and holistic picture of the Australian LIS profession, and identify how its future education and training can be mediated in a cohesive and sustainable manner. The project was undertaken with a team of 12 university and vocational LIS educators from 11 institutions around Australia between November 2009 and December 2010. Collectively, these eleven institutions represented the broad spectrum and diversity of LIS education in Australia, and enabled the project to examine education for the information profession in a holistic and synergistic manner. Participating institutions in the project included Queensland University of Technology (Project Leader), Charles Sturt University, Curtin University of Technology, Edith Cowan University, Monash University, RMIT University, University of Canberra, University of South Australia, University of Tasmania, University of Technology Sydney and Victoria University. The inception and need for the project was motivated by a range of factors. From a broad perspective several of these factors relate to concerns raised at national and international levels regarding problems with education for LIS. In addition, the motivation and need for the project also related to some unique challenges that LIS education faces in the Australian tertiary education landscape. Over recent years a range of responses to explore the various issues confronting LIS education in Australia have emerged at local and national levels however this project represented the first significant investment of funding for national research in this area. In this way, the inception of the project offered a unique opportunity and powerful mechanism through which to bring together key stakeholders and inspire discourse concerning future education for the profession. Therefore as the first national project of its kind, its intent has been to provide foundation research that will inform and guide future directions for LIS education and training in Australia. The primary objective of the project was to develop a Framework for the Education of the Information Professions in Australia. The purpose of this framework was to provide evidence based strategic recommendations that would guide Australia’s future education for the information professions. Recognising the three major and equal players in the education process the project was framed around three areas of consideration: LIS students, the LIS workforce and LIS educators. Each area of consideration aligned to a research substudy in the project. The three research substudies were titled Student Considerations, Workforce Planning Considerations and Tertiary Education Considerations. The Students substudy provided a profile of LIS students and an analysis of their choices, experiences and expectations in regard to LIS education and their graduate destinations. The Workforce substudy provided an overview and analysis of the nature of the current LIS workforce, including a focus on employer expectations and employment opportunities and comment on the core and elective skill, knowledge and attitudes of current and future LIS professionals. Finally the Tertiary Education substudy provided a profile of LIS educators and an analysis of their characteristics and experiences including the key issues and challenges. In addition it also explored current national and international trends and priorities impacting on LIS education. The project utilised a Community Based Participatory Research (CBPR) approach. This approach involves all members of the community in all aspects of the project. It recognised the unique strengths and perspectives that community members bring to the process. For this project ‘community’ comprised of all individuals who have a role in, or a vested interest in, LIS education and included LIS educators, professionals, employers, students and professional associations. Individuals from these sub-groups were invited to participate in a range of aspects of the project from design through to implementation and evaluation. A range of research methodologies were used to consider the many different perspectives of LIS education, including employers and recruiters, professional associations, students, graduates and LIS teaching staff. Data collection involved a mixed method approach of questionnaires, focus groups, semi-structured interviews and environmental scans. An array of approaches was selected to ensure that broadest possible access to different facets of the information profession would be achieved. The main findings and observations from each substudy have highlighted a range of challenges for LIS education that need to be addressed. These findings and observations have grounded the development of the Framework for the Education of the Information Professions in Australia. The framework presents eleven recommendations to progress the national approach to LIS education and guide Australia’s future education for the information professions. The framework will be used by the LIS profession, most notably its educators, as strategic directions for the future of LIS education in Australia. Framework for the Education of the Information Professions in Australia: Recommendation 1: It is recommended that a broader and more inclusive vocabulary be adopted that both recognises and celebrates the expanding landscape of the field, for example ‘information profession’, ‘information sector’, ‘information discipline’ and ‘information education’. Recommendation 2: It is recommended that a self-directed body composed of information educators be established to promote, support and lead excellence in teaching and research within the information discipline. Recommendation 3: It is recommended that Australia’s information discipline continue to develop excellence in information research that will raise the discipline’s profile and contribute to its prominence within the national and international arena. Recommendation 4: It is recommended that further research examining the nature and context of Australia’s information education programs be undertaken to ensure a sustainable and relevant future for the discipline. Recommendation 5: It is recommended that further research examining the pathways and qualifications available for entry into the Australian information sector be undertaken to ensure relevance, attractiveness, accessibility and transparency. Recommendation 6: It is recommended that strategies are developed and implemented to ensure the sustainability of the workforce of information educators. Recommendation 7: It is recommended that a national approach to promoting and marketing the information profession and thereby attracting more students to the field is developed. Recommendation 8: It is recommended that Australia’s information discipline continues to support a culture of quality teaching and learning, especially given the need to accommodate a focus on the broader information landscape and more flexible delivery options. Recommendation 9: It is recommended that strategies are developed that will support and encourage collaboration between information education within the higher education and VET sectors. Recommendation 10: It is recommended that strategies and forums are developed that will support the information sector working together to conceptualise and articulate their professional identity and educational needs. Recommendation 11: It is recommended that a research agenda be established that will identify and prioritise areas in which further development or work is needed to continue advancing information education in Australia. The key findings from this project confirm that a number of pressing issues are confronting LIS education in Australia. Left unaddressed these issues will have significant implications for the future of LIS education as well as the broader LIS profession. Consequently creating a sustainable and cohesive future can only be realised through cooperation and collaboration among all stakeholders including those with the capacity to enact radical change in university and vocational institutions. Indeed the impending adoption and implementation of the project’s recommendations will fundamentally determine whether Australian LIS education is assured both for the present day and into the future.

The development of Monte Carlo techniques for the verification of radiotherapy treatments

Radiotherapy is a cancer treatment modality in which a dose of ionising radiation is delivered to a tumour. The accurate calculation of the dose to the patient is very important in the design of an effective therapeutic strategy. This study aimed to systematically examine the accuracy of the radiotherapy dose calculations performed by clinical treatment planning systems by comparison againstMonte Carlo simulations of the treatment delivery. A suite of software tools known as MCDTK (Monte Carlo DICOM ToolKit) was developed for this purpose, and is capable of: • Importing DICOM-format radiotherapy treatment plans and producing Monte Carlo simulation input files (allowing simple simulation of complex treatments), and calibrating the results; • Analysing the predicted doses of and deviations between the Monte Carlo simulation results and treatment planning system calculations in regions of interest (tumours and organs-at-risk) and generating dose-volume histograms, so that conformity with dose prescriptions can be evaluated. The code has been tested against various treatment planning systems, linear acceleratormodels and treatment complexities. Six clinical head and neck cancer treatments were simulated and the results analysed using this software. The deviations were greatest where the treatment volume encompassed tissues on both sides of an air cavity. This was likely due to the method the planning system used to model low density media.

It’s not me, it’s you : a participant observation case study of the self-publishing musician in the 21st century

This thesis explores the business environment for self-publishing musicians at the end of the 20th century and the start of the 21st century from theoretical and empirical standpoints. The exploration begins by asking three research questions: what are the factors affecting the sustainability of an Independent music business; how many of those factors can be directly influenced by an Independent musician in the day-to-day operations of their musical enterprise; and how can those factors be best manipulated to maximise the benefit generated from digital music assets? It answers these questions by considering the nature of value in the music business in light of theories of political economy, then quantitative and qualitative examinations of the nature of participation in the music business, and then auto-ethnographic approaches to the application of two technologically enabled tools available to Independent musicians. By analyzing the results of five different examinations of the topic it answers each research question with reference to four sets of recurring issues that affect the operations of a 21st century music business: the musicians’ personal characteristics, their ability to address their business’s informational needs; their ability to manage the relationships upon which their business depends; and their ability to resolve the remaining technological problems that confront them. It discusses ways in which Independent self-publishing musicians can and cannot deal with these four issues on a day-to-day basis and highlights aspects for which technological solutions do not exist as well as ways in which technology is not as effective as has been claimed. It then presents a self-critique and proposes some directions for further study before concluding by suggesting some common features of 21st century Independent music businesses. This thesis makes three contributions to knowledge. First, it provides a new understanding of the sources of musical value, shows how this explains changes in the music industries over the past 30 years, and provides a framework for predicting future developments in those industries. Second, it shows how the technological discontinuity that has occurred around the start of the 21st century has and has not affected the production and distribution of digital cultural artefacts and thus the attitudes, approaches, and business prospects of Independent musicians. Third, it argues for new understandings of two methods by which self-publishing musicians can grow a business using production methods that are only beginning to be more broadly understood: home studio recording and fan-sourced production. Developed from the perspective of working musicians themselves, this thesis identifies four sets of issues that determine the probable success of musicians’ efforts to adopt new technologies to capture the value of the musicians’ creativity and thereby foster growth that will sustain an Independent music business in the 21st century.