On the nature of over-dispersion in motor vehicle crash prediction models

Statistical modeling of traffic crashes has been of interest to researchers for decades. Over the most recent decade many crash models have accounted for extra-variation in crash counts—variation over and above that accounted for by the Poisson density. The extra-variation – or dispersion – is theorized to capture unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites. The majority of studies have assumed fixed dispersion parameters in over-dispersed crash models—tantamount to assuming that unaccounted for variation is proportional to the expected crash count. Miaou and Lord [Miaou, S.P., Lord, D., 2003. Modeling traffic crash-flow relationships for intersections: dispersion parameter, functional form, and Bayes versus empirical Bayes methods. Transport. Res. Rec. 1840, 31–40] challenged the fixed dispersion parameter assumption, and examined various dispersion parameter relationships when modeling urban signalized intersection accidents in Toronto. They suggested that further work is needed to determine the appropriateness of the findings for rural as well as other intersection types, to corroborate their findings, and to explore alternative dispersion functions. This study builds upon the work of Miaou and Lord, with exploration of additional dispersion functions, the use of an independent data set, and presents an opportunity to corroborate their findings. Data from Georgia are used in this study. A Bayesian modeling approach with non-informative priors is adopted, using sampling-based estimation via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and the Gibbs sampler. A total of eight model specifications were developed; four of them employed traffic flows as explanatory factors in mean structure while the remainder of them included geometric factors in addition to major and minor road traffic flows. The models were compared and contrasted using the significance of coefficients, standard deviance, chi-square goodness-of-fit, and deviance information criteria (DIC) statistics. The findings indicate that the modeling of the dispersion parameter, which essentially explains the extra-variance structure, depends greatly on how the mean structure is modeled. In the presence of a well-defined mean function, the extra-variance structure generally becomes insignificant, i.e. the variance structure is a simple function of the mean. It appears that extra-variation is a function of covariates when the mean structure (expected crash count) is poorly specified and suffers from omitted variables. In contrast, when sufficient explanatory variables are used to model the mean (expected crash count), extra-Poisson variation is not significantly related to these variables. If these results are generalizable, they suggest that model specification may be improved by testing extra-variation functions for significance. They also suggest that known influences of expected crash counts are likely to be different than factors that might help to explain unaccounted for variation in crashes across sites

Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states—perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed—and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros

Derivation of motor vehicle tailpipe particle emission factors suitable for modelling urban fleet emissions and air quality assessments

Background, aim, and scope Urban motor vehicle fleets are a major source of particulate matter pollution, especially of ultrafine particles (diameters < 0.1 µm), and exposure to particulate matter has known serious health effects. A considerable body of literature is available on vehicle particle emission factors derived using a wide range of different measurement methods for different particle sizes, conducted in different parts of the world. Therefore the choice as to which are the most suitable particle emission factors to use in transport modelling and health impact assessments presented as a very difficult task. The aim of this study was to derive a comprehensive set of tailpipe particle emission factors for different vehicle and road type combinations, covering the full size range of particles emitted, which are suitable for modelling urban fleet emissions. Materials and methods A large body of data available in the international literature on particle emission factors for motor vehicles derived from measurement studies was compiled and subjected to advanced statistical analysis, to determine the most suitable emission factors to use in modelling urban fleet emissions. Results This analysis resulted in the development of five statistical models which explained 86%, 93%, 87%, 65% and 47% of the variation in published emission factors for particle number, particle volume, PM1, PM2.5 and PM10 respectively. A sixth model for total particle mass was proposed but no significant explanatory variables were identified in the analysis. From the outputs of these statistical models, the most suitable particle emission factors were selected. This selection was based on examination of the statistical robustness of the statistical model outputs, including consideration of conservative average particle emission factors with the lowest standard errors, narrowest 95% confidence intervals and largest sample sizes, and the explanatory model variables, which were Vehicle Type (all particle metrics), Instrumentation (particle number and PM2.5), Road Type (PM10) and Size Range Measured and Speed Limit on the Road (particle volume). Discussion A multiplicity of factors need to be considered in determining emission factors that are suitable for modelling motor vehicle emissions, and this study derived a set of average emission factors suitable for quantifying motor vehicle tailpipe particle emissions in developed countries. Conclusions The comprehensive set of tailpipe particle emission factors presented in this study for different vehicle and road type combinations enable the full size range of particles generated by fleets to be quantified, including ultrafine particles (measured in terms of particle number). These emission factors have particular application for regions which may have a lack of funding to undertake measurements, or insufficient measurement data upon which to derive emission factors for their region. Recommendations and perspectives In urban areas motor vehicles continue to be a major source of particulate matter pollution and of ultrafine particles. It is critical that in order to manage this major pollution source methods are available to quantify the full size range of particles emitted for traffic modelling and health impact assessments.

Ions in motor vehicle exhaust and their dispersion near busy roads

Measurements in the exhaust plume of a petrol-driven motor car showed that molecular cluster ions of both signs were present in approximately equal amounts. The emission rate increased sharply with engine speed while the charge symmetry remained unchanged. Measurements at the kerbside of nine motorways and five city roads showed that the mean total cluster ion concentration near city roads (603 cm-3) was about one-half of that near motorways (1211 cm-3) and about twice as high as that in the urban background (269 cm-3). Both positive and negative ion concentrations near a motorway showed a significant linear increase with traffic density (R2=0.3 at p<0.05) and correlated well with each other in real time (R2=0.87 at p<0.01). Heavy duty diesel vehicles comprised the main source of ions near busy roads. Measurements were conducted as a function of downwind distance from two motorways carrying around 120-150 vehicles per minute. Total traffic-related cluster ion concentrations decreased rapidly with distance, falling by one-half from the closest approach of 2m to 5m of the kerb. Measured concentrations decreased to background at about 15m from the kerb when the wind speed was 1.3 m s-1, this distance being greater at higher wind speed. The number and net charge concentrations of aerosol particles were also measured. Unlike particles that were carried downwind to distances of a few hundred metres, cluster ions emitted by motor vehicles were not present at more than a few tens of metres from the road.

Sustainable urban infrastructure management : integration of urban computer modelling

Purpose - This paper seeks to examine the complex relationships between urban planning, infrastructure management, sustainable urban development, and to illustrate why there is an urgent need for local governments to develop a robust planning support system which integrates with advance urban computer modelling tools to facilitate better infrastructure management and improve knowledge sharing between the community, urban planners, engineers and decision makers. Design/methodology/approach - The methods used in this paper includes literature review and practical project case observations. Originality/value - This paper provides an insight of how the Brisbane's planning support system established by Brisbane City Council has significantly improved the effectiveness of urban planning, infrastructure management and community engagement through better knowledge management processes. Practical implications - This paper presents a practical framework for setting up a functional planning support system within local government. The integration of the Brisbane Urban Growth model, Virtual Brisbane and the Brisbane Economic Activity Monitoring (BEAM) database have proven initially successful to provide a dynamic platform to assist elected officials, planners and engineers to understand the limitations of the local environment, its urban systems and the planning implications on a city. With the Brisbane's planning support system, planners and decision makers are able to provide better planning outcomes, policy and infrastructure that adequately address the local needs and achieve sustainable spatial forms.

Common mode voltage in a motor drive system with PFC

Common mode voltage generated by a power converter in combination with parasitic capacitive couplings is a potential source of shaft voltage in an AC motor drive system. In this paper, a three-phase motor drive system supplied with a single-phase AC-DC diode rectifier is investigated in order to reduce shaft voltage in a three-phase AC motor drive system. In this topology, the common mode voltage generated by the inverter is influenced by the AC-DC diode rectifier because the placement of the neutral point is changing in different rectifier circuit states. A pulse width modulation technique is presented by a proper placement of the zero vectors to reduce the common mode voltage level, which leads to a cost effective shaft voltage reduction technique without load current distortion, while keeping the switching frequency constant. Analysis and simulations have been presented to investigate the proposed method.

Efficient simulation of unsaturated flow using exponential time integration

We assess the performance of an exponential integrator for advancing stiff, semidiscrete formulations of the unsaturated Richards equation in time. The scheme is of second order and explicit in nature but requires the action of the matrix function φ(A) where φ(z) = [exp(z) - 1]/z on a suitability defined vector v at each time step. When the matrix A is large and sparse, φ(A)v can be approximated by Krylov subspace methods that require only matrix-vector products with A. We prove that despite the use of this approximation the scheme remains second order. Furthermore, we provide a practical variable-stepsize implementation of the integrator by deriving an estimate of the local error that requires only a single additional function evaluation. Numerical experiments performed on two-dimensional test problems demonstrate that this implementation outperforms second-order, variable-stepsize implementations of the backward differentiation formulae.

Expression and connection : the integration of the reflective learning process and the writing process into social network sites

A number of instructors have recently adopted social network sites (SNSs) for learning. However, the learning design of SNSs often remains at a preliminary level similar to a personal log book because it does not properly include reflective learning elements such as individual reflection and collaboration. This article looks at the reflective learning process and the public writing process as a way of improving the quality of reflective learning on SNSs. It proposes a reflective learning model on SNSs based on two key pedagogical concepts for social networking: individual expression and collaborative connection. It is expected that the model would be helpful for instructors in designing a reflective learning process on SNSs in an effective and flexible way.

Re-engineering project planning processes : a best practice model for managing project phase integration issues

Competitive markets are increasingly driving new initiatives for shorter cycle times resulting in increased overlapping of project phases. This, in turn, necessitates improving the interfaces between the different phases to be overlapped (integrated), thus allowing transfer of processes, information and knowledge from one individual or team to another. This transfer between phases, within and between projects, is one of the basic challenges to the philosophy of project management. To make the process transfer more transparent with minimal loss of momentum and project knowledge, this paper draws upon Total Quality Management (TQM) and Business Process Re-engineering (BPR) philosophies to develop a Best Practice Model for managing project phase integration. The paper presents the rationale behind the model development and outlines its two key parts; (1) Strategic Framework and (2) Implementation Plan. Key components of both the Strategic Framework and the Implementation Plan are presented and discussed.

Integrating information literacy into higher education curricula : an IL curricular integration model

This study investigates a way to systematically integrate information literacy (IL) into an undergraduate academic programme and develops a model for integrating information literacy across higher education curricula. Curricular integration of information literacy in this study means weaving information literacy into an academic curriculum. In the associated literature, it is also referred to as the information literacy embedding approach or the intra-curricular approach. The key findings identified from this study are presented in 4 categories: the characteristics of IL integration; the key stakeholders in IL integration; IL curricular design strategies; and the process of IL curricular integration. Three key characteristics of the curricular integration of IL are identified: collaboration and negotiation, contextualisation and ongoing interaction with information. The key stakeholders in the curricular integration of IL are recognised as the librarians, the course coordinators and lecturers, the heads of faculties or departments, and the students. Some strategies for IL curricular design include: the use of IL policies and standards in IL curricular design; the combination of face to face and online teaching as an emerging trend; the use of IL assessment tools which play an important role in IL integration. IL can be integrated into the intended curriculum (what an institution expects its students to learn), the offered curriculum (what the teachers teach) and the received curriculum (what students actually learn). IL integration is a process of negotiation, collaboration and the implementation of the intended curriculum. IL can be integrated at different levels of curricula such as: institutional, faculty, departmental, course and class curriculum levels. Based on these key findings, an IL curricular integration model is developed. The model integrates curriculum, pedagogy and learning theories, IL theories, IL guidelines and the collaboration of multiple partners. The model provides a practical approach to integrating IL into multiple courses across an academic degree. The development of the model was based on the IL integration experiences of various disciplines in three universities and the implementation experience of an engineering programme at another university; thus it may be of interest to other disciplines. The model has the potential to enhance IL teaching and learning, curricular development and to implement graduate attributes in higher education. Sociocultural theories are applied to the research process and IL curricular design of this study. Sociocultural theories describe learning as being embedded within social events and occurring as learners interact with other people, objects, and events in a collaborative environment. Sociocultural theories are applied to explore how academic staff and librarians experience the curricular integration of IL; they also support collaboration in the curricular integration of IL and the development of an IL integration model. This study consists of two phases. Phase I (2007) was the interview phase where both academic staff and librarians at three IL active universities were interviewed. During this phase, attention was paid specifically to the practical process of curricular integration of IL and IL activity design. Phase II, the development phase (2007-2008), was conducted at a fourth university. This phase explores the systematic integration of IL into an engineering degree from Year 1 to Year 4. Learning theories such as sociocultural theories, Bloom’s Taxonomy and IL theories are used in IL curricular development. Based on the findings from both phases, an IL integration model was developed. The findings and the model contribute to IL education, research and curricular development in higher education. The sociocultural approach adopted in this study also extends the application of sociocultural theories to the IL integration process and curricular design in higher education.

Knowledge integration within Japanese firms : the Fujitsu way

The paper analyses knowledge integration processes at Fujitsu from a multi-level and systemic perspective. The focus is on team-building capability, capturing and utilising individual tacit knowledge, and communication networks for integrating dispersed specialist knowledge required in the development of new products and services. The analysis shows how knowledge integration is performed by Fujitsu at different layers of the company.

Maintenance chain integration using Petri-net enabled multiagent system modeling and implementation approach

Engineering asset management (EAM) is a broad discipline and the EAM functions and processes are characterized by its distributed nature. However, engineering asset nowadays mostly relies on self-maintained experiential rule bases and periodic maintenance, which is lacking a collaborative engineering approach. This research proposes a collaborative environment integrated by a service center with domain expertise such as diagnosis, prognosis, and asset operations. The collaborative maintenance chain combines asset operation sites, service center (i.e., maintenance operation coordinator), system provider, first tier collaborators, and maintenance part suppliers. Meanwhile, to realize the automation of communication and negotiation among organizations, multiagent system (MAS) technique is applied to enhance the entire service level. During the MAS design processes, this research combines Prometheus MAS modeling approach with Petri-net modeling methodology and unified modeling language to visualize and rationalize the design processes of MAS. The major contributions of this research include developing a Petri-net enabled Prometheus MAS modeling methodology and constructing a collaborative agent-based maintenance chain framework for integrated EAM.

Property Agents and Motor Dealers Act : strike three

The Tourism, Racing and Fair Trading (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2002 (“the Act”) which was passed on 18 April 2002 contains a number of significant amendments relevant to the operation of the Property Agents and Motor Dealers Act 2000. The main changes relevant to property transactions are: (i) Changes to the process for appointment of a real estate agent and consolidation of the appointment forms; (ii) Additions to the disclosure obligation of agents and property developers; (iii) Simplification of the process for commencing the cooling off period; (iv) Alteration of the common law position concerning when the parties are bound by a contract; (v) Removal of the requirement for a seller’s signature on the warning statement to be witnessed; (vi) Retrospective amendment of s 170 of the Body Corporate and Community Management Act 1997; (vii) Inclusion of a new power to allow inspectors to enter the place of business of a licensee or a marketeer without consent and without a warrant; and (viii) Inclusion of a new power for inspectors to require documents to be produced by marketeers. The majority of the amendments are effective from the date of assent, 24 April 2002, however, some of the amendments do not commence until a date fixed by proclamation. No proclamation has been made at the time of writing (2 May 2002). Where the amendments have not commenced this will be noted in the article. Before providing clients with advice, practitioners should carefully check proclamation details.

Property Agents and Motor Dealers Act : take two

The Property Agents and Motor Dealers Act 2000 commenced on 1 July 2001. Significant changes have now been made to the Act by the Property Agents and Motor Dealers Amendment Act 2001 (“the amending Act”). The amending Act contains two distinct parts. First, ss 11-19 of the amending Act provide for increased disclosure obligations on real estate agents, property developers and lawyers together with an extension of the 5 business day cooling-off period imposed by the original Act to all residential property (other than contracts formed on a sale by auction). These provisions commenced on 29 October 2001. The remaining provisions of the amending Act provide for increased jurisdiction and powers to the Property Agents and Motor Dealers Tribunal (“the Tribunal”) enabling the Tribunal to deal with claims against marketeers. These provisions commenced on the date of assent, 21 September 2001.

Waiver of statutory requirements : Property Agents and Motor Dealers Act 2000 (Qld)

One of the many difficulties associated with the drafting of the Property Agents and Motor Dealers Act 2000 (Qld) (‘the Act’) is the operation of s 365. If the requirements imposed by this section concerning the return of the executed contract are not complied with, the buyer and the seller will not be bound by the relevant contract and the cooling-off period will not commence. In these circumstances, it is clear that a buyer’s offer may be withdrawn. However, the drafting of the Act creates a difficulty in that the ability of the seller to withdraw from the transaction prior to the parties being bound by the contract is not expressly provided by s 365. On one view, if the buyer is able to withdraw an offer at any time before receiving the prescribed contract documentation the seller also should not be bound by the contract until this time, notwithstanding that the seller may have been bound at common law. However, an alternative analysis is that the legislative omission to provide the seller with a right of withdrawal may be deliberate given the statutory focus on buyer protection. If this analysis were correct the seller would be denied the right to withdraw from the transaction after the contract was formed at common law (that is, after the seller had signed and the fact of signing had been communicated to the buyer).