A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality

Background: Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality. Method: Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day’s mean temperature minus the previous day’s mean. Results: In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3 °C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65–74 years. An increase of more than 3 °C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged < 65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3 °C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM. Conclusion : A significant change in temperature of more than 3 °C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.

Ambient temperature and morbidity: A review of epidemiological evidence

OBJECTIVE: This paper reviews the epidemiological evidence on the relationship between ambient temperature and morbidity. It assesses the methodological issues in previous studies, and proposes future research directions. DATA SOURCES AND DATA EXTRACTION: We searched the PubMed database for epidemiological studies on ambient temperature and morbidity of non-communicable diseases published in refereed English journals prior to June 2010. 40 relevant studies were identified. Of these, 24 examined the relationship between ambient temperature and morbidity, 15 investigated the short-term effects of heatwave on morbidity, and 1 assessed both temperature and heatwave effects. DATA SYNTHESIS: Descriptive and time-series studies were the two main research designs used to investigate the temperature–morbidity relationship. Measurements of temperature exposure and health outcomes used in these studies differed widely. The majority of studies reported a significant relationship between ambient temperature and total or cause-specific morbidities. However, there were some inconsistencies in the direction and magnitude of non-linear lag effects. The lag effect of hot temperature on morbidity was shorter (several days) compared to that of cold temperature (up to a few weeks). The temperature–morbidity relationship may be confounded and/or modified by socio-demographic factors and air pollution. CONCLUSIONS: There is a significant short-term effect of ambient temperature on total and cause-specific morbidities. However, further research is needed to determine an appropriate temperature measure, consider a diverse range of morbidities, and to use consistent methodology to make different studies more comparable.

FGFR2 as a molecular target in endometrial cancer

Although molecularly targeted therapies have been effective in some cancer types, no targeted therapy is approved for use in endometrial cancer. The recent identification of activating mutations in fibroblast growth factor receptor 2 (FGFR2) in endometrial tumors has generated a new avenue for the development of targeted therapeutic agents. The majority of the mutations identified are identical to germline mutations in FGFR2 and FGFR3 that cause craniosynostosis and hypochondroplasia syndromes and result in both ligand-independent and ligand-dependent receptor activation. Mutations that predominantly occur in the endometrioid subtype of endometrial cancer, are mutually exclusive with KRAS mutation, but occur in the presence of PTEN abrogation. In vitro studies have shown that endometrial cancer cell lines with activating FGFR2 mutations are selectively sensitive to a pan-FGFR inhibitor, PD173074. Several agents with activity against FGFRs are currently in clinical trials. Investigation of these agents in endometrial cancer patients with activating FGFR2 mutations is warranted.

Targeting mutant fibroblast growth factor receptors in cancer

Fibroblast growth factor receptors (FGFRs) play diverse roles in the control of cell proliferation, cell differentiation, angiogenesis and development. Activating the mutations of FGFRs in the germline has long been known to cause a variety of skeletal developmental disorders, but it is only recently that a similar spectrum of somatic FGFR mutations has been associated with human cancers. Many of these somatic mutations are gain-of-function and oncogenic and create dependencies in tumor cell lines harboring such mutations. A combination of knockdown studies and pharmaceutical inhibition in preclinical models has further substantiated genomically altered FGFR as a therapeutic target in cancer, and the oncology community is responding with clinical trials evaluating multikinase inhibitors with anti-FGFR activity and a new generation of specific pan-FGFR inhibitors.

Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly : a meta-analysis and systematic review of epidemiological evidence

The impact of climate change on the health of vulnerable groups such as the elderly has been of increasing concern. However, to date there has been no meta-analysis of current literature relating to the effects of temperature fluctuations upon mortality amongst the elderly. We synthesised risk estimates of the overall impact of daily mean temperature on elderly mortality across different continents. A comprehensive literature search was conducted using MEDLINE and PubMed to identify papers published up to December 2010. Selection criteria including suitable temperature indicators, endpoints, study-designs and identification of threshold were used. A two-stage Bayesian hierarchical model was performed to summarise the percent increase in mortality with a 1°C temperature increase (or decrease) with 95% confidence intervals in hot (or cold) days, with lagged effects also measured. Fifteen studies met the eligibility criteria and almost 13 million elderly deaths were included in this meta-analysis. In total, there was a 2-5% increase for a 1°C increment during hot temperature intervals, and a 1-2 % increase in all-cause mortality for a 1°C decrease during cold temperature intervals. Lags of up to 9 days in exposure to cold temperature intervals were substantially associated with all-cause mortality, but no substantial lagged effects were observed for hot intervals. Thus, both hot and cold temperatures substantially increased mortality among the elderly, but the magnitude of heat-related effects seemed to be larger than that of cold effects within a global context.

The effect of various temperature indicators on different mortality categories in a subtropical city of Brisbane, Australia.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between temperature and mortality has been explored for decades and many temperature indicators have been applied separately. However, few data are available to show how the effects of different temperature indicators on different mortality categories, particularly in a typical subtropical climate. OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations between various temperature indicators and different mortality categories in Brisbane, Australia during 1996-2004. METHODS: We applied two methods to assess the threshold and temperature indicator for each age and death groups: mean temperature and the threshold assessed from all cause mortality was used for all mortality categories; the specific temperature indicator and the threshold for each mortality category were identified separately according to the minimisation of AIC. We conducted polynomial distributed lag non-linear model to identify effect estimates in mortality with one degree of temperature increase (or decrease) above (or below) the threshold on current days and lagged effects using both methods. RESULTS: Akaike's Information Criterion was minimized when mean temperature was used for all non-external deaths and deaths from 75 to 84 years; when minimum temperature was used for deaths from 0 to 64 years, 65-74 years, ≥ 85 years, and from the respiratory diseases; when maximum temperature was used for deaths from cardiovascular diseases. The effect estimates using certain temperature indicators were similar as mean temperature both for current day and lag effects. CONCLUSION: Different age groups and death categories were sensitive to different temperature indicators. However, the effect estimates from certain temperature indicators did not significantly differ from those of mean temperature.

An analytical and experimental study of the vibration response of a clamped ribbed plate

An analytical solution is presented in this paper for the vibration response of a ribbed plate clamped on all its boundary edges by employing a travelling wave solution. A clamped ribbed plate test rig is also assembled in this study for the experimental investigation of the ribbed plate response and to provide verification results to the analytical solution. The dynamic characteristics and mode shapes of the ribbed plate are measured and compared to those obtained from the analytical solution and from finite element analysis (FEA). General good agreements are found between the results. Discrepancies between the computational and experimental results at low and high frequencies are also discussed. Explanations are offered in the study to disclose the mechanism causing the discrepancies. The dependency of the dynamic response of the ribbed plate on the distance between the excitation force and the rib is also investigated experimentally. It confirms the findings disclosed in a previous analytical study [T. R. Lin and J. Pan, A closed form solution for the dynamic response of finite ribbed plates. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America 119 (2006) 917-925] that the vibration response of a clamped ribbed plate due to a point force excitation is controlled by the plate stiffness when the source is more than a quarter plate bending wavelength away from the rib and from the plate boundary. The response is largely affected by the rib stiffness when the source location is less than a quarter bending wavelength away from the rib.

Design of sustainable transport : opportunities

The need to find an alternative to our current transport situation is widely accepted. In most cities of the world, traffic congestion is commonplace and air pollution is normal. Road fatalities are a regular and almost accepted event. And (in most developed nations) as an indirect consequence of our transport choices, obesity is increasing at an alarming rate. The car is undeniably a major contributor to this situation. Additionally the very structure of our cities has evolved to the point that it can be creditably claimed that the city belongs to the car and not to humans. There are however alternatives. There is a plethora of experimental vehicles in all shapes and configurations. And yet, the car is still king. The question is, how do we pick a winner? What are the aspects of the car that make it so appealing? Are these aspects able to be translated into a more sustainable version? What do we need to incorporate in our designs of new vehicles to make them more appealing to the consumers? In this paper I explore these questions and propose a list of design criteria for more sustainable transport options.

Integrating electrical vehicles to demand side response scheme in Queensland Australia

Depleting fossil fuel resources and increased accumulation of greenhouse gas emissions are increasingly making electrical vehicles (EV) attractive option for the transportation sector. However uncontrolled random charging and discharging of EVs may aggravate the problems of an already stressed system during the peak demand and cause voltage problems during low demand. This paper develops a demand side response scheme for properly integrating EVs in the Electrical Network. The scheme enacted upon information on electricity market conditions regularly released by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) on the internet. The scheme adopts Internet relays and solid state switches to cycle charging and discharging of EVs. Due to the pending time-of-use and real-price programs, financial benefits will represent driving incentives to consumers to implement the scheme. A wide-scale dissemination of the scheme is expected to mitigate excessive peaks on the electrical network with all associated technical, economic and social benefits.

An integrated approach for precise road reconstruction from aerial imagery and LiDAR data

Accurate and detailed road models play an important role in a number of geospatial applications, such as infrastructure planning, traffic monitoring, and driver assistance systems. In this thesis, an integrated approach for the automatic extraction of precise road features from high resolution aerial images and LiDAR point clouds is presented. A framework of road information modeling has been proposed, for rural and urban scenarios respectively, and an integrated system has been developed to deal with road feature extraction using image and LiDAR analysis. For road extraction in rural regions, a hierarchical image analysis is first performed to maximize the exploitation of road characteristics in different resolutions. The rough locations and directions of roads are provided by the road centerlines detected in low resolution images, both of which can be further employed to facilitate the road information generation in high resolution images. The histogram thresholding method is then chosen to classify road details in high resolution images, where color space transformation is used for data preparation. After the road surface detection, anisotropic Gaussian and Gabor filters are employed to enhance road pavement markings while constraining other ground objects, such as vegetation and houses. Afterwards, pavement markings are obtained from the filtered image using the Otsu's clustering method. The final road model is generated by superimposing the lane markings on the road surfaces, where the digital terrain model (DTM) produced by LiDAR data can also be combined to obtain the 3D road model. As the extraction of roads in urban areas is greatly affected by buildings, shadows, vehicles, and parking lots, we combine high resolution aerial images and dense LiDAR data to fully exploit the precise spectral and horizontal spatial resolution of aerial images and the accurate vertical information provided by airborne LiDAR. Objectoriented image analysis methods are employed to process the feature classiffcation and road detection in aerial images. In this process, we first utilize an adaptive mean shift (MS) segmentation algorithm to segment the original images into meaningful object-oriented clusters. Then the support vector machine (SVM) algorithm is further applied on the MS segmented image to extract road objects. Road surface detected in LiDAR intensity images is taken as a mask to remove the effects of shadows and trees. In addition, normalized DSM (nDSM) obtained from LiDAR is employed to filter out other above-ground objects, such as buildings and vehicles. The proposed road extraction approaches are tested using rural and urban datasets respectively. The rural road extraction method is performed using pan-sharpened aerial images of the Bruce Highway, Gympie, Queensland. The road extraction algorithm for urban regions is tested using the datasets of Bundaberg, which combine aerial imagery and LiDAR data. Quantitative evaluation of the extracted road information for both datasets has been carried out. The experiments and the evaluation results using Gympie datasets show that more than 96% of the road surfaces and over 90% of the lane markings are accurately reconstructed, and the false alarm rates for road surfaces and lane markings are below 3% and 2% respectively. For the urban test sites of Bundaberg, more than 93% of the road surface is correctly reconstructed, and the mis-detection rate is below 10%.

An analysis of tax expenditure versus direct expenditure

Each financial year concessions, benefits and incentives are delivered to taxpayers via the tax system. These concessions, benefits and incentives, referred to as tax expenditure, differ from direct expenditure because of the recurring fiscal impact without regular scrutiny through the federal budget process. There are approximately 270 different tax expenditures existing within the current tax regime with total measured tax expenditures in the 2005-06 financial year estimated to be around $42.1 billion, increasing to $52.7 billion by 2009-10. Each year, new tax expenditures are introduced, while existing tax expenditures are modified and deleted. In recognition of some of the problems associated with tax expenditure, a Tax Expenditure Statement, as required by the Charter of Budget Honesty Act 1988, is produced annually by the Australian Federal Treasury. The Statement details the various expenditures and measures in the form of concessions, benefits and incentives provided to taxpayers by the Australian Government and calculates the tax expenditure in terms of revenue forgone. A similar approach to reporting tax expenditure, with such a report being a legal requirement, is followed by most OECD countries. The current Tax Expenditure Statement lists 270 tax expenditures and where it is able to, reports on the estimated pecuniary value of those expenditures. Apart from the annual Tax Expenditure Statement, there is very little other scrutiny of Australia’s Federal tax expenditure program. While there has been various academic analysis of tax expenditure in Australia, when compared to the North American literature, it is suggested that the Australian literature is still in its infancy. In fact, one academic author who has contributed to tax expenditure analysis recently noted that there is ‘remarkably little secondary literature which deals at any length with tax expenditures in the Australian context.’ Given this perceived gap in the secondary literature, this paper examines fundamental concept of tax expenditure and considers the role it plays in to the current tax regime as a whole, along with the effects of the introduction of new tax expenditures. In doing so, tax expenditure is contrasted with direct expenditure. An analysis of tax expenditure versus direct expenditure is already a sophisticated and comprehensive body of work stemming from the US over the last three decades. As such, the title of this paper is rather misleading. However, given the lack of analysis in Australia, it is appropriate that this paper undertakes a consideration of tax expenditure versus direct expenditure in an Australian context. Given this proposition, rather than purport to undertake a comprehensive analysis of tax expenditure which has already been done, this paper discusses the substantive considerations of any such analysis to enable further investigation into the tax expenditure regime both as a whole and into individual tax expenditure initiatives. While none of the propositions in this paper are new in a ‘tax expenditure analysis’ sense, this debate is a relatively new contribution to the Australian literature on the tax policy. Before the issues relating to tax expenditure can be determined, it is necessary to consider what is meant by ‘tax expenditure’. As such, part two if this paper defines ‘tax expenditure’. Part three determines the framework in which tax expenditure can be analysed. It is suggested that an analysis of tax expenditure must be evaluated within the framework of the design criteria of an income tax system with the key features of equity, efficiency, and simplicity. Tax expenditure analysis can then be applied to deviations from the ideal tax base. Once it is established what is meant by tax expenditure and the framework for evaluation is determined, it is possible to establish the substantive issues to be evaluated. This paper suggests that there are four broad areas worthy of investigation; economic efficiency, administrative efficiency, whether tax expenditure initiatives achieve their policy intent, and the impact on stakeholders. Given these areas of investigation, part four of this paper considers the issues relating to the economic efficiency of the tax expenditure regime, in particular, the effect on resource allocation, incentives for taxpayer behaviour and distortions created by tax expenditures. Part five examines the notion of administrative efficiency in light of the fact that most tax expenditures could simply be delivered as direct expenditures. Part six explores the notion of policy intent and considers the two questions that need to be asked; whether any tax expenditure initiative reaches its target group and whether the financial incentives are appropriate. Part seven examines the impact on stakeholders. Finally, part eight considers the future of tax expenditure analysis in Australia.

Building the profession together : towards holistic library and information science education

How can a holistic approach to library and information science education encompassing vocational and university sectors that meets the future information workforce requirements be achieved? This paper will outline a twelve month national project that considered this very question. Funded by the Australian Learning and Teaching Council (ALTC).