Predicting stock market returns and volatility with investor sentiment : evidence from eight developed countries

We test the predictive ability of investor sentiment on the return and volatility at the aggregate market level in the U.S., four largest European countries and three Asia-Pacific countries. We find that in the U.S., France and Italy periods of high consumer confidence levels are followed by low market returns. In Japan both the level and the change in consumer confidence boost the market return in the next month. Further, shifts in sentiment significantly move conditional volatility in most of the countries, and in Italy such impacts lead to an increase in returns by 4.7% in the next month.

The impacts of exchange rate volatility on vegetable trade flows

Trade flows of commodities are generally affected by the principles of comparative advantage in a free trade. However, trade flows might be enhanced or distorted not only by various government interventions, but also by exchange rate fluctuations among others. This study applies a commodity-specific gravity model to selected vegetable trade flows among Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries to determine the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on the trade flows. Using the data from 1996 to 2002, the results show that, while the exchange rate uncertainty significantly reduces trade in the majority of commodity flows, there is evidence that both short- and long-term volatility have positive effect on trade flows of specific commodities. This study also tests the regional preferential trade agreements such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and the EU, and their different effects on commodities.

Fire performance and design of cold-formed steel wall systems

Traditionally, the fire resistance rating of Light gauge steel frame (LSF) wall systems is based on approximate prescriptive methods developed using limited fire tests. These fire tests are conducted using standard fire time-temperature curve given in ISO 834. However, in recent times fire has become a major disaster in buildings due to the increase in fire loads as a result of modern furniture and lightweight construction, which make use of thermoplastics materials, synthetic foams and fabrics. Therefore a detailed research study into the performance of load bearing LSF wall systems under both standard and realistic design fires on one side was undertaken to develop improved fire design rules. This study included both full scale fire tests and numerical studies of eight different LSF wall systems conducted for both the standard fire curve and the recently developed realistic design fire curves. The use of previous fire design rules developed for LSF walls subjected to non-uniform elevated temperature distributions based on AISI design manual and Eurocode 3 Parts 1.2 and 1.3 was investigated first. New simplified fire design rules based on AS/NZS 4600, North American Specification and Eurocode 3 Part 1.3 were then proposed with suitable allowances for the interaction effects of compression and bending actions. The importance of considering thermal bowing, magnified thermal bowing and neutral axis shift in the fire design was also investigated and their effects were included. A spread sheet based design tool was developed based on the new design rules to predict the failure load ratio versus time and temperature curves for varying LSF wall configurations. The accuracy of the proposed design rules was verified using the fire test and finite element analysis results for various wall configurations, steel grades, thicknesses and load ratios under both standard and realistic design fire conditions. A simplified method was also proposed to predict the fire resistance rating of LSF walls based on two sets of equations developed for the load ratio-hot flange temperature and the time-temperature relationships. This paper presents the details of this study on LSF wall systems under fire conditions and the results.

Design of cold-formed steel columns at elevated temperatures subject to flexural-torsional buckling

Cold-formed steel members are often subject to axial compression loads in a range of applications. These thin-walled members can be subject to various types of buckling modes, including flexural-torsional buckling. Design standards provide guidelines for columns subject to flexural-torsional buckling modes at ambient temperature. However, there are no specific design guidelines for elevated temperature conditions. Hence extensive research efforts have gone into the many investigations addressing the flexural-torsional buckling behaviour of cold-formed steel columns at elevated temperatures.This research has reviewed the accuracy of the current design rules in AS/NZS 4600 and the North American Specification in determining the member capacities of cold-formed steel columns using the results from detailed finite element analyses and an experimental study of lipped channel columns. It was found that the current ambient temperature Australian and American design rules accurately predicted the member capacities of pin ended lipped channel columns undergoing flexural torsional buckling at elevated temperatures by simply using the appropriate elevated temperature mechanical properties. However, for fixed ended columns with warping fixity undergoing flexural-torsional buckling, it was found that the current design rules significantly underestimated the column capacities as they disregard the beneficial effect of warping fixity. This research has therefore proposed improved design rules and verified their accuracy using finite element analysis and test results of cold-formed lipped channel columns made of three cross-sections and five different steel grades and thicknesses. This paper presents the details of this research study and the results.

I’m friends with Louie the Fly, not Mortein : conceptualising the new brand relationships on social media [Reprint]

Social media offers many opportunities for building brand relationships. One method of fostering relationships is to create a social media presence for the company spokes-character. Anecdotal evidence suggests that such a strategy can be very effective, though empirical research is needed. This paper reviews what is known and highlights a concern, based on analysis of the case of Louie the Fly and Mortein, that consumers may interact with characters as if they were separate to their parent brand. Hence positive associations with the character may not translate into positive brand outcomes. Following discussion, a model is proposed for testing.

Editors review of 'Research in early childhood education for sustainability : international perspectives and provocations'

Mounting concerns about climate change and unsustainable development, and their current and future impacts on all of us – but particularly on children - provided the impetus for this book. Then, as researchers in early childhood education (ECE) and/or education for sustainability (EfS), we used these concerns to shape and question our thinking. This first-ever research text in Early Childhood Education for Sustainability (ECEfS) was advanced when the chapter authors, almost all of whom participated in one or both Transnational Dialogues in Research in Early Childhood Education for Sustainability (Stavanger, Norway, 2010, and Brisbane, Australia, 2011) met for the first time - a critical mass of researchers from vastly different parts of the globe - Norway, Sweden, Australia and New Zealand at the inaugural meeting, with participants from Korea, Japan and Singapore attending the second. We came together to debate, discuss and share ideas about research and theory in the emerging field of ECEfS. An agreed-upon outcome of the Dialogues was this text.

The complete genome sequence of Escherichia coli EC958: a high quality reference sequence for the globally disseminated multidrug resistant E. coli O25b:H4-ST131 clone

Escherichia coli ST131 is now recognised as a leading contributor to urinary tract and bloodstream infections in both community and clinical settings. Here we present the complete, annotated genome of E. coli EC958, which was isolated from the urine of a patient presenting with a urinary tract infection in the Northwest region of England and represents the most well characterised ST131 strain. Sequencing was carried out using the Pacific Biosciences platform, which provided sufficient depth and read-length to produce a complete genome without the need for other technologies. The discovery of spurious contigs within the assembly that correspond to site-specific inversions in the tail fibre regions of prophages demonstrates the potential for this technology to reveal dynamic evolutionary mechanisms. E. coli EC958 belongs to the major subgroup of ST131 strains that produce the CTX-M-15 extended spectrum β-lactamase, are fluoroquinolone resistant and encode the fimH30 type 1 fimbrial adhesin. This subgroup includes the Indian strain NA114 and the North American strain JJ1886. A comparison of the genomes of EC958, JJ1886 and NA114 revealed that differences in the arrangement of genomic islands, prophages and other repetitive elements in the NA114 genome are not biologically relevant and are due to misassembly. The availability of a high quality uropathogenic E. coli ST131 genome provides a reference for understanding this multidrug resistant pathogen and will facilitate novel functional, comparative and clinical studies of the E. coli ST131 clonal lineage.

Metabolic response to a mixed meal in obese and lean women from two South African populations

Objective Lower lipid and insulin levels are found during a glucose-tolerance test in obese black than obese white South African women. Therefore, β-cell function and lipid metabolism were compared in these populations during a mixed meal. Research Methods and Procedures Blood concentrations of glucose, free fatty acids (FFAs), insulin, lipograms, and in vivo FFA oxidation were determined at fasting and for 7 hours after oral administration of a mixed emulsion containing glucose-casein-sucrose-lipid and [1-13C] palmitic acid in 8 lean black women (LBW), 10 obese black women (OBW), 9 lean white women (LWW), and 10 obese white women (OWW). Subcutaneous and visceral fat mass was assessed by computerized tomography. Results Visceral fat area was higher in OWW (152.7 ± 17.0 cm2) than OBW (80.0 ± 6.7 cm2; p < 0.01). In OBW, 30-minute insulin levels were higher (604.3 ± 117.6 pM) than OWW (311.0 ± 42.9 pM; p < 0.05). Total triglyceride was higher in OWW (706.7 ± 96.0 mM × 7 hours) than OBW (465.7 ± 48.2 mM × 7 hours; p < 0.05) and correlated with visceral fat area (β = 0.38, p = 0.05). Palmitate oxidation was higher in lean than obese women in both ethnic groups and correlated negatively with fat mass (β = −0.58, p < 0.005). Discussion The higher 30-minute insulin response in OBW may reflect a higher insulinotropic effect of FFAs or glucose. The elevated triglyceride level of OWW may be due to their higher visceral fat mass and possibly reduced clearance by adipose tissue.

Comparison of intraspecific genetic structure among related chironomids (Diptera) from New Zealand and Patagonia : disparity between potential and realized dispersal

Population genetic studies of freshwater invertebrate taxa in New Zealand and South America are currently few despite the geologically and climatically dynamic histories of these regions. The focus of our study was a comparison of the influence on realized dispersal of 2 closely related nonbiting midges (Chironomidae) of population fragmentation on these separated austral land masses. We used a 734-base pair (bp) fragment of cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) to investigate intraspecific genetic structure in Naonella forsythi Boothroyd in New Zealand and Ferringtonia patagonica Edwards in Patagonia. We proposed hypotheses about their potential dispersal and, hence, expected patterns of genetic structure in these 2 species based on published patterns for the closely related Australian taxon Echinocladius martini Cranston. Genetic structure revealed for both N. forsythi and F. patagonica was characterized by several highly divergent (2.0–10.5%) lineages of late Miocene–Pliocene age within each taxon that were not geographically localized. Many were distributed widely. This pattern differed greatly from population structure in E. martini, which was typified by much greater endemicity of divergent genetic lineages. Nevertheless, diversification of lineages in all 3 taxa appeared to be temporally congruent with the onset of late Miocene glaciations in the southern hemisphere that may have driven fragmentation of suitable habitat, promoting isolation of populations and divergence in allopatry. We argue that differences in realized dispersal post-isolation may be the result of differing availability of suitable habitat in interglacial periods.

An Australian perspective on the ALI-III global principles for cooperation in International insolvency cases

In 2012, Professor Ian Fletcher (United Kingdom) and Professor Bob Wessels (The Netherlands) presented a Report to the American Law Institute and the International Insolvency Institute entitled Transnational Insolvency: Global Principles for Cooperation in International Insolvency Cases (“Global Principles”). This followed their appointment as Joint Reporters to investigate whether the essential provisions of the American Law Institute Principles of Cooperation among the North American Free Trade Agreement Countries with their annexed Guidelines Applicable to Court-to-Court Communication in Cross-border Cases may, with certain necessary modifications, be acceptable for use by jurisdictions across the world. This article comments on the Global Principles from the perspective of a jurisdiction which has adopted the UNCITRAL Model Law on Cross-border Insolvency (“Model Law”). In 2008, Australia enacted a standalone statute, the Cross-border Insolvency Act 2008 (Cth) to which is annexed the Model Law. In that process, it made minimal changes to the Model Law text. Against the background of the 2008 Act, related procedural laws as well as Australia’s general insolvency statutes and recent cross-border insolvency jurisprudence, this article comments on the potential relevance of the Transnational Insolvency Report as a point of reference for Australian courts and insolvency administrators when addressing international insolvency cases. By comparing the Global Principles with the Model Law as closely adopted in Australia, this analysis is a resource for other Model Law jurisdictions when considering the potential relevance of the Global Principles for their own international insolvency practice.

Learning Chinese as a heritage language in Australia and beyond : the role of capital

The benefits of learning and retaining heritage languages are well documented in the literature. Chinese heritage language learners’ commitment to their heritage language learning has gained significant research ground in social psychological and post-structural schools, with empirical evidence predominantly emerging from the North American contexts. There is scant sociological examination of similar problems conducted outside North America. The current study aims to make a contribution in this regard. The use of Bourdieu's sociological notion of capital in the Australian context complements the social psychological and post-structural work predominantly produced in the North American contexts. The initial quantitative sub-study analyses the impacts of various resources on the Chinese heritage language proficiency of 230 snowball-sampled Chinese Australian respondents to an online survey. The subsequent qualitative sub-study explores the profits of learning Chinese heritage language through interviews with a subset of the survey sample. Findings indicate that cultural, social, and symbolic capital significantly positively contributes to Chinese Australians’ Chinese heritage language proficiency, which, in return, produces profits in different forms of capital. The study suggests a reciprocal relationship between ‘capital’ and Chinese heritage language proficiency.

Accelerating junior-secondary mathematics

Unfortunately, in Australia there is a prevalence of mathematically underperforming junior-secondary students in low-socioeconomic status schools. This requires targeted intervention to develop the affected students’ requisite understanding in preparation for post-compulsory study and employment and, ultimately, to increase their life chances. To address this, the ongoing action research project presented in this paper is developing a curriculum of accelerated learning, informed by a lineage of cognitivist-based structural sequence theory building activity (e.g., Cooper & Warren, 2011). The project’s conceptual framework features three pillars: the vertically structured sequencing of concepts; pedagogy grounded in students’ reality and culture; and professional learning to support teachers’ implementation of the curriculum (Cooper, Nutchey, & Grant, 2013). Quantitative and qualitative data informs the ongoing refinement of the theory, the curriculum, and the teacher support.

Structuring representations of continuous data through investigations in grade 1

The study of data modelling with elementary students involves the analysis of a developmental process beginning with children’s investigations of meaningful contexts: visualising, structuring, and representing data and displaying data in simple graphs (English, 2012; Lehrer & Schauble, 2005; Makar, Bakker, & Ben-Zvi, 2011). A 3-year longitudinal study investigated young children’s data modelling, integrating mathematical and scientific investigations. One aspect of this study involved a researcher-led teaching experiment with 21 mathematically able Grade 1 students. The study aimed to describe explicit developmental features of students’ representations of continuous data...

Enhancing the auditor's report : to what extent is there support for the IAASB's proposed changes?

This article outlines proposed reforms to auditor reporting currently being considered by the International Auditing and Assurance Standards Board (IAASB), and other key national and transnational standard-setters and regulatory bodies. It adds to recent academic contributions on reforming the auditor’s report by analyzing the 165 stakeholder responses to the IAASB’s 2012 Invitation to Comment: Improving the Auditor’s Report to determine levels of support for the IAASB’s proposed reforms, and the differences, if any, between the views of various respondents based on stakeholder groups (e.g. audit and assurance firms, users, preparers, regulators, etc.) and regional classifications. Guided by insights from communication theory, our results show the levels of stakeholder support for the IAASB’s proposed reforms addressing auditors’ expectations, information and communication gaps are mixed. The strongest overall support was for enhanced auditor reporting on other information attached to, or intended to be read with, the financial statements, and the least supported initiative was including additional information in the auditor’s report about the auditor’s judgements and processes. Whilst overall there is generally consensus across both stakeholder groups and regions concerning the various questions investigated, we highlight where statistically significant differences between groups do exist. Notably, North American respondents were less likely to support a number of the IAASB’s proposed reforms than their counterparts from other regions.

Opsin clines in butterflies suggest novel roles for insect photopigments

Opsins are ancient molecules that enable animal vision by coupling to a vitamin-derived chromophore to form lightsensitive photopigments. The primary drivers of evolutionary diversification in opsins are thought to be visual tasks related to spectral sensitivity and color vision. Typically, only a few opsin amino acid sites affect photopigment spectral sensitivity. We show that opsin genes of the North American butterfly Limenitis arthemis have diversified along a latitudinal cline, consistent with natural selection due to environmental factors. We sequenced single nucleotide(SNP) polymorphisms in the coding regions of the ultraviolet (UVRh), blue (BRh), and long-wavelength (LWRh) opsin genes from ten butterfly populations along the eastern United States and found that a majority of opsin SNPs showed significant clinal variation. Outlier detection and analysis of molecular variance indicated that many SNPs are under balancing selection and show significant population structure. This contrasts with what we found by analysing SNPs in the wingless and EF-1 alpha loci, and from neutral amplified fragment length polymorphisms, which show no evidence of significant locus-specific or genome-wide structure among populations. Using a combination of functional genetic and physiological approaches, including expression in cell culture, transgenic Drosophila, UV-visible spectroscopy, and optophysiology, we show that key BRh opsin SNPs that vary clinally have almost no effect on spectral sensitivity. Our results suggest that opsin diversification in this butterfly is more consistent with natural selection unrelated to spectral tuning. Some of the clinally varying SNPs may instead play a role in regulating opsin gene expression levels or the thermostability of the opsin protein. Lastly, we discuss the possibility that insect opsins might have important, yet-to-be elucidated, adaptive functions in mediating animal responses to abiotic factors, such as temperature or photoperiod.