Bayesian models for spatio-temporal assessment of disease

This thesis has contributed to the advancement of knowledge in disease modelling by addressing interesting and crucial issues relevant to modelling health data over space and time. The research has led to the increased understanding of spatial scales, temporal scales, and spatial smoothing for modelling diseases, in terms of their methodology and applications. This research is of particular significance to researchers seeking to employ statistical modelling techniques over space and time in various disciplines. A broad class of statistical models are employed to assess what impact of spatial and temporal scales have on simulated and real data.

A case study of the Iranian national railway and its absolute capacity expansion using analytical models

Identifying railway capacity is an important task that can identify "in principal" whether the network can handle an intended traffic flow, and whether there is any free capacity left for additional train services. Capacity determination techniques can also be used to identify how best to improve an existing network, and at least cost. In this article an optimization approach has been applied to a case study of the Iran national railway, in order to identify its current capacity and to optimally expand it given a variety of technical conditions. This railway is very important in Iran and will be upgraded extensively in the coming years. Hence the conclusions in this article may help in that endeavor. A sensitivity analysis is recommended to evaluate a wider range of possible scenarios. Hence more useful lower and upper bounds can be provided for the performance of the system

Integrin-linked kinase as a target for ERG-mediated invasive properties in prostate cancer models

Approximately half of prostate cancers (PCa) carry TMPRSS2-ERG translocations; however, the clinical impact of this genomic alteration remains enigmatic. Expression of v-ets erythroblastosis virus E26 oncogene like (avian) gene (ERG) promotes prostatic epithelial dysplasia in transgenic mice and acquisition of epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) characteristics in human prostatic epithelial cells (PrECs). To explore whether ERG-induced EMT in PrECs was associated with therapeutically targetable transformation characteristics, we established stable populations of BPH-1, PNT1B and RWPE-1 immortalized human PrEC lines that constitutively express flag-tagged ERG3 (fERG). All fERG-expressing populations exhibited characteristics of in vitro and in vivo transformation. Microarray analysis revealed >2000 commonly dysregulated genes in the fERG-PrEC lines. Functional analysis revealed evidence that fERG cells underwent EMT and acquired invasive characteristics. The fERG-induced EMT transcript signature was exemplified by suppressed expression of E-cadherin and keratins 5, 8, 14 and 18; elevated expression of N-cadherin, N-cadherin 2 and vimentin, and of the EMT transcriptional regulators Snail, Zeb1 and Zeb2, and lymphoid enhancer-binding factor-1 (LEF-1). In BPH-1 and RWPE-1-fERG cells, fERG expression is correlated with increased expression of integrin-linked kinase (ILK) and its downstream effectors Snail and LEF-1. Interfering RNA suppression of ERG decreased expression of ILK, Snail and LEF-1, whereas small interfering RNA suppression of ILK did not alter fERG expression. Interfering RNA suppression of ERG or ILK impaired fERG-PrEC Matrigel invasion. Treating fERG-BPH-1 cells with the small molecule ILK inhibitor, QLT-0267, resulted in dose-dependent suppression of Snail and LEF-1 expression, Matrigel invasion and reversion of anchorage-independent growth. These results suggest that ILK is a therapeutically targetable mediator of ERG-induced EMT and transformation in PCa.

Young driver distraction : state of the evidence and directions for behavior change programs

Adolescent drivers are over-represented in distraction-related motor vehicle crashes. There are a number of potential reasons for such elevated risk with driving inexperience, high adoption of communication technology, increased peer involvement and tendency to take risks, rendering young drivers particularly vulnerable. Major legislative efforts in Graduated Licensing Systems that include passenger restrictions have shown positive effects. Restrictions on cell phone use are also being introduced however enforcement of such regulations is challenging. This paper argues that such contextual, legislative interventions are an essential prevention strategy however there is an unfilled need to introduce behavior change programs that may target adolescents, parents and friends. A theoretical framework is applied in which risk and protective factors are identified from research within community and jurisdiction contexts. In the literature on distraction social context and normative influences are the key elements used to inform program design for adolescent drivers with parental monitoring informing interventions targeting parents. Following from this assessment of the message content assessment, the design of strategies to deliver the messages are reviewed. In the current literature, school-based programs, simulations and web-delivered programs have been evaluated with supplementary strategies delivered by physicians and parents. Such developments are still at an early stage of development and ultimately will need controlled implementation and evaluation studies. There is of course, no likely single approach to prevent adolescent driver distraction and complementary approaches such as the further development of technological interventions to manage phone use are needed. Implications and Contributions The paper describes the intervention design process alongside key research in young driver distraction including selecting target behavior, audience, theoretically-derived strategies and delivery strategies. Currently graduated driver licensing and technology use and acceptance and parent-adolescent and adolescent-peer interactions are opportunities for further research and exploration.

Bridging experiments, models and simulations : an integrative approach to validation in computational cardiac electrophysiology

Computational models in physiology often integrate functional and structural information from a large range of spatio-temporal scales from the ionic to the whole organ level. Their sophistication raises both expectations and scepticism concerning how computational methods can improve our understanding of living organisms and also how they can reduce, replace and refine animal experiments. A fundamental requirement to fulfil these expectations and achieve the full potential of computational physiology is a clear understanding of what models represent and how they can be validated. The present study aims at informing strategies for validation by elucidating the complex interrelations between experiments, models and simulations in cardiac electrophysiology. We describe the processes, data and knowledge involved in the construction of whole ventricular multiscale models of cardiac electrophysiology. Our analysis reveals that models, simulations, and experiments are intertwined, in an assemblage that is a system itself, namely the model-simulation-experiment (MSE) system. Validation must therefore take into account the complex interplay between models, simulations and experiments. Key points for developing strategies for validation are: 1) understanding sources of bio-variability is crucial to the comparison between simulation and experimental results; 2) robustness of techniques and tools is a pre-requisite to conducting physiological investigations using the MSE system; 3) definition and adoption of standards facilitates interoperability of experiments, models and simulations; 4) physiological validation must be understood as an iterative process that defines the specific aspects of electrophysiology the MSE system targets, and is driven by advancements in experimental and computational methods and the combination of both.

Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing spatial point-based data at a grid level: A comparison of approaches

Spatial data are now prevalent in a wide range of fields including environmental and health science. This has led to the development of a range of approaches for analysing patterns in these data. In this paper, we compare several Bayesian hierarchical models for analysing point-based data based on the discretization of the study region, resulting in grid-based spatial data. The approaches considered include two parametric models and a semiparametric model. We highlight the methodology and computation for each approach. Two simulation studies are undertaken to compare the performance of these models for various structures of simulated point-based data which resemble environmental data. A case study of a real dataset is also conducted to demonstrate a practical application of the modelling approaches. Goodness-of-fit statistics are computed to compare estimates of the intensity functions. The deviance information criterion is also considered as an alternative model evaluation criterion. The results suggest that the adaptive Gaussian Markov random field model performs well for highly sparse point-based data where there are large variations or clustering across the space; whereas the discretized log Gaussian Cox process produces good fit in dense and clustered point-based data. One should generally consider the nature and structure of the point-based data in order to choose the appropriate method in modelling a discretized spatial point-based data.

An evaluation of crowd counting methods, features and regression models

Existing crowd counting algorithms rely on holistic, local or histogram based features to capture crowd properties. Regression is then employed to estimate the crowd size. Insufficient testing across multiple datasets has made it difficult to compare and contrast different methodologies. This paper presents an evaluation across multiple datasets to compare holistic, local and histogram based methods, and to compare various image features and regression models. A K-fold cross validation protocol is followed to evaluate the performance across five public datasets: UCSD, PETS 2009, Fudan, Mall and Grand Central datasets. Image features are categorised into five types: size, shape, edges, keypoints and textures. The regression models evaluated are: Gaussian process regression (GPR), linear regression, K nearest neighbours (KNN) and neural networks (NN). The results demonstrate that local features outperform equivalent holistic and histogram based features; optimal performance is observed using all image features except for textures; and that GPR outperforms linear, KNN and NN regression

Comparison of eight published static finite element models of the intact lumbar spine : predictive power of models improves when combined together

Finite element (FE) model studies have made important contributions to our understanding of functional biomechanics of the lumbar spine. However, if a model is used to answer clinical and biomechanical questions over a certain population, their inherently large inter-subject variability has to be considered. Current FE model studies, however, generally account only for a single distinct spinal geometry with one set of material properties. This raises questions concerning their predictive power, their range of results and on their agreement with in vitro and in vivo values. Eight well-established FE models of the lumbar spine (L1-5) of different research centres around the globe were subjected to pure and combined loading modes and compared to in vitro and in vivo measurements for intervertebral rotations, disc pressures and facet joint forces. Under pure moment loading, the predicted L1-5 rotations of almost all models fell within the reported in vitro ranges, and their median values differed on average by only 2° for flexion-extension, 1° for lateral bending and 5° for axial rotation. Predicted median facet joint forces and disc pressures were also in good agreement with published median in vitro values. However, the ranges of predictions were larger and exceeded those reported in vitro, especially for the facet joint forces. For all combined loading modes, except for flexion, predicted median segmental intervertebral rotations and disc pressures were in good agreement with measured in vivo values. In light of high inter-subject variability, the generalization of results of a single model to a population remains a concern. This study demonstrated that the pooled median of individual model results, similar to a probabilistic approach, can be used as an improved predictive tool in order to estimate the response of the lumbar spine.

Effects of driver familiarity and prolonged or intermittent right-side failure on level crossing safety

This paper investigates the adverse effects of familiarity and human factors issues associated with the reliability of low-cost warning devices at level crossings. The driving simulator study featured a repetitive, low workload, monotonous driving task in which there were no failures of the level crossing (control) or prolonged or intermittent right-side failures (where the device reverts to a safe failure mode). The results of the experiment provided mixed support for the familiarity hypothesis. Four of the 23 participants collided with the train when it first appeared on trial 10 but safety margins increased from the first train to the next presentation of a train (trial 12). Contrary to expectations, the safety margins decreased with repeated right-side failure only for the intermittent condition. The limited head movement data showed that participants in the prolonged failure condition were more likely to turn their head to check for trains in the right-side failure trials than in earlier trials where there was no signal and no train. Few control participants turned their head to check for trains when no signal was presented. This research highlights the need to consider repetitive tasks and workload in experimental design and accident investigation at railway level crossings.

The game of clones and the Australia tax : divergent views about copyright business models and the willingness of Australian consumers to infringe

It is often said that Australia is a world leader in rates of copyright infringement for entertainment goods. In 2012, the hit television show, Game of Thrones, was the most downloaded television show over bitorrent, and estimates suggest that Australians accounted for a plurality of nearly 10% of the 3-4 million downloads each week. The season finale of 2013 was downloaded over a million times within 24 hours of its release, and again Australians were the largest block of illicit downloaders over BitTorrent, despite our relatively small population. This trend has led the former US Ambassador to Australia to implore Australians to stop 'stealing' digital content, and rightsholders to push for increasing sanctions on copyright infringers. The Australian Government is looking to respond by requiring Internet Service Providers to issue warnings and potentially punish consumers who are alleged by industry groups to have infringed copyright. This is the logical next step in deterring infringement, given that the operators of infringing networks (like The Pirate Bay, for example) are out of regulatory reach. This steady ratcheting up of the strength of copyright, however, comes at a significant cost to user privacy and autonomy, and while the decentralisation of enforcement reduces costs, it also reduces the due process safeguards provided by the judicial process. This article presents qualitative evidence that substantiates a common intuition: one of the major reasons that Australians seek out illicit downloads of content like Game of Thrones in such numbers is that it is more difficult to access legitimately in Australia. The geographically segmented way in which copyright is exploited at an international level has given rise to a ‘tyranny of digital distance’, where Australians have less access to copyright goods than consumers in other countries. Compared to consumers in the US and the EU, Australians pay more for digital goods, have less choice in distribution channels, are exposed to substantial delays in access, and are sometimes denied access completely. In this article we focus our analysis on premium film and television offerings, like Game of Thrones, and through semi-structured interviews, explore how choices in distribution impact on the willingness of Australian consumers to seek out infringing copies of copyright material. Game of Thrones provides an excellent case study through which to frame this analysis: it is both one of the least legally accessible television offerings and one of the most downloaded through filesharing networks of recent times. Our analysis shows that at the same time as rightsholder groups, particularly in the film and television industries, are lobbying for stronger laws to counter illicit distribution, the business practices of their member organisations are counter-productively increasing incentives for consumers to infringe. The lack of accessibility and high prices of copyright goods in Australia leads to substantial economic waste. The unmet consumer demand means that Australian consumers are harmed by lower access to information and entertainment goods than consumers in other jurisdictions. The higher rates of infringement that fulfils some of this unmet demand increases enforcement costs for copyright owners and imposes burdens either on our judicial system or on private entities – like ISPs – who may be tasked with enforcing the rights of third parties. Most worryingly, the lack of convenient and cheap legitimate digital distribution channels risks undermining public support for copyright law. Our research shows that consumers blame rightsholders for failing to meet market demand, and this encourages a social norm that infringing copyright, while illegal, is not morally wrongful. The implications are as simple as they are profound: Australia should not take steps to increase the strength of copyright law at this time. The interests of the public and those of rightsholders align better when there is effective competition in distribution channels and consumers can legitimately get access to content. While foreign rightsholders are seeking enhanced protection for their interests, increasing enforcement is likely to increase their ability to engage in lucrative geographical price-discrimination, particularly for premium content. This is only likely to increase the degree to which Australian consumers feel that their interests are not being met and, consequently, to further undermine the legitimacy of copyright law. If consumers are to respect copyright law, increasing sanctions for infringement without enhancing access and competition in legitimate distribution channels could be dangerously counter-productive. We suggest that rightsholders’ best strategy for addressing infringement in Australia at this time is to ensure that Australians can access copyright goods in a timely, affordable, convenient, and fair lawful manner.

From words to models : a bibliometric approach to designing agent-based models in entrepreneurship

Agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS) may fit well with entrepreneurship research and practice because the core concepts and basic premises of entrepreneurship coincide with the characteristics of ABMS. However, it is difficult to find cases where ABMS is applied to entrepreneurship research. To apply ABMS to entrepreneurship and organization studies, designing a conceptual model is important; thus to effectively design a conceptual model, various mixed method approaches are being attempted. As a new mixed method approach to ABMS, this study proposes a bibliometric approach to designing agent based models, which establishes and analyzes a domain corpus. This study presents an example on the venture creation process using the bibliometric approach. This example shows us that the results of the multi-agent simulations on the venturing process based on the bibliometric approach are close to each nation’s surveyed data on the venturing activities. In conclusion, by the bibliometric approach proposed in this study, all the agents and the agents’ behaviors related to a phenomenon can be extracted effectively, and a conceptual model for ABMS can be designed with the agents and their behaviors. This study contributes to the entrepreneurship and organization studies by promoting the application of ABMS.

AR and gamification concepts to reduce driver boredom and risk taking behaviours

Young males are over-represented in road crashes. Part of the problem is their proneness to boredom, a hardwired personality factor that can lead to risky driving. This paper presents a theoretical understanding of boredom in the driving context and demonstrates convincing arguments to investigate the role of boredom further. Specifically, this paper calls for the design of innovative technologies and applications that make safe driving more pleasurable and stimulating for young males, e.g., by applying gamification techniques. We propose two design concepts through the following questions: A. Can the simulation of risky driving reduce actual risky driving? B. Can the replacement of risky driving stimuli with alternative stimuli reduce risky driving? We argue that considering these questions in the future design of automotive user-interfaces and personal ubiquitous computing devices could effectively reduce risky driving behaviours among young males.

Business model adaptation in new ventures: are technology-based firms different?

A firm’s business model (BM) is an important driver of its relative performance. Constructive adaptation to elements of the BM can therefore sustain the position in light of changing conditions. This study takes a configurational approach to understanding drivers of business model adaptation (BMA) in new ventures. We investigate the effect of human capital, social capital, and technological environment on BMA. We find that a universal, direct effects, analysis can provide useful information, but also risks painting a distorted picture. Contingent, two-way interactions add further explanatory power, but configurational models combining elements of all three (internal resource, external activities, environment) are superior.

Extending building information models to specifications and cost planning

This digital poster (which was on display at "The Cube", Queensland University of Technology) demonstrates how specification parameters can be extracted from a product library repository for use in augmenting the information contents of the objects in a local BIM tool (Revit in this instance).

Purposeful program theory: Effective use of theories of change and logic models [Book Review]

The purpose of this book by two Australian authors is to: introduce the audience to the full complement of contextual elements found within program theory; offer practical suggestions to engage with theories of change, theories of action and logic models; and provide substantial evidence for this approach through scholarly literature, practice case studies together with the authors' combined experience of 60 years.