735 resultados para Bayesian framework
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Focus groups are a popular qualitative research method for information systems researchers. However, compared with the abundance of research articles and handbooks on planning and conducting focus groups, surprisingly, there is little research on how to analyse focus group data. Moreover, those few articles that specifically address focus group analysis are all in fields other than information systems, and offer little specific guidance for information systems researchers. Further, even the studies that exist in other fields do not provide a systematic and integrated procedure to analyse both focus group ‘content’ and ‘interaction’ data. As the focus group is a valuable method to answer the research questions of many IS studies (in the business, government and society contexts), we believe that more attention should be paid to this method in the IS research. This paper offers a systematic and integrated procedure for qualitative focus group data analysis in information systems research.
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Industrial control systems (ICS) have been moving from dedicated communications to switched and routed corporate networks, making it probable that these devices are being exposed to the Internet. Many ICS have been designed with poor or little security features, making them vulnerable to potential attack. Recently, several tools have been developed that can scan the internet, including ZMap, Masscan and Shodan. However, little in-depth analysis has been done to compare these Internet-wide scanning techniques, and few Internet-wide scans have been conducted targeting ICS and protocols. In this paper we present a Taxonomy of Internet-wide scanning with a comparison of three popular network scanning tools, and a framework for conducting Internet-wide scans.
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This thesis introduces a method of applying Bayesian Networks to combine information from a range of data sources for effective decision support systems. It develops a set of techniques in development, validation, visualisation, and application of Complex Systems models, with a working demonstration in an Australian airport environment. The methods presented here have provided a modelling approach that produces highly flexible, informative and applicable interpretations of a system's behaviour under uncertain conditions. These end-to-end techniques are applied to the development of model based dashboards to support operators and decision makers in the multi-stakeholder airport environment. They provide highly flexible and informative interpretations and confidence in these interpretations of a system's behaviour under uncertain conditions.
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This thesis is an analyzing creative processes that can be fostered through computer gaming. Outcomes from the research build on our knowledge of how computer games foster creative thinking. The research proposes guidelines that build upon our understanding of the relationship between the creative processes that players undertake during a game and the components of the game that allow these processes to occur. These guidelines may be used in the game design process to better facilitate creative gameplay activity. A significant research contribution is the ability to create games that facilitate creative thinking through engaging interactions with technology.
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Wound healing and tumour growth involve collective cell spreading, which is driven by individual motility and proliferation events within a population of cells. Mathematical models are often used to interpret experimental data and to estimate the parameters so that predictions can be made. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically assume that these parameters are constants and often ignore any uncertainty in the estimated values. We use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to estimate the cell diffusivity, D, and the cell proliferation rate, λ, from a discrete model of collective cell spreading, and we quantify the uncertainty associated with these estimates using Bayesian inference. We use a detailed experimental data set describing the collective cell spreading of 3T3 fibroblast cells. The ABC analysis is conducted for different combinations of initial cell densities and experimental times in two separate scenarios: (i) where collective cell spreading is driven by cell motility alone, and (ii) where collective cell spreading is driven by combined cell motility and cell proliferation. We find that D can be estimated precisely, with a small coefficient of variation (CV) of 2–6%. Our results indicate that D appears to depend on the experimental time, which is a feature that has been previously overlooked. Assuming that the values of D are the same in both experimental scenarios, we use the information about D from the first experimental scenario to obtain reasonably precise estimates of λ, with a CV between 4 and 12%. Our estimates of D and λ are consistent with previously reported values; however, our method is based on a straightforward measurement of the position of the leading edge whereas previous approaches have involved expensive cell counting techniques. Additional insights gained using a fully Bayesian approach justify the computational cost, especially since it allows us to accommodate information from different experiments in a principled way.
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Background Improving hand hygiene among health care workers (HCWs) is the single most effective intervention to reduce health care associated infections in hospitals. Understanding the cognitive determinants of hand hygiene decisions for HCWs with the greatest patient contact (nurses) is essential to improve compliance. The aim of this study was to explore hospital-based nurses’ beliefs associated with performing hand hygiene guided by the World Health Organization’s (WHO) 5 critical moments. Using the belief-base framework of the Theory of Planned Behaviour, we examined attitudinal, normative, and control beliefs underpinning nurses’ decisions to perform hand hygiene according to the recently implemented national guidelines. Methods Thematic content analysis of qualitative data from focus group discussions with hospital-based registered nurses from 5 wards across 3 hospitals in Queensland, Australia. Results Important advantages (protection of patient and self), disadvantages (time, hand damage), referents (supportive: patients, colleagues; unsupportive: some doctors), barriers (being too busy, emergency situations), and facilitators (accessibility of sinks/products, training, reminders) were identified. There was some equivocation regarding the relative importance of hand washing following contact with patient surroundings. Conclusions The belief base of the theory of planned behaviour provided a useful framework to explore systematically the underlying beliefs of nurses’ hand hygiene decisions according to the 5 critical moments, allowing comparisons with previous belief studies. A commitment to improve nurses’ hand hygiene practice across the 5 moments should focus on individual strategies to combat distraction from other duties, peer-based initiatives to foster a sense of shared responsibility, and management-driven solutions to tackle staffing and resource issues. Hand hygiene following touching a patient’s surroundings continues to be reported as the most neglected opportunity for compliance.
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Understanding the dynamics of disease spread is of crucial importance, in contexts such as estimating load on medical services to risk assessment and intervention policies against large-scale epidemic outbreaks. However, most of the information is available after the spread itself, and preemptive assessment is far from trivial. Here, we investigate the use of agent-based simulations to model such outbreaks in a stylised urban environment. For most diseases, infection of a new individual may occur from casual contact in crowds as well as from repeated interactions with social partners such as work colleagues or family members. Our model therefore accounts for these two phenomena.Presented in this paper is the initial framework for such a model, detailing implementation of geographical features and generation of social structures. Preliminary results are a promising step towards large-scale simulations and evaluation of potential intervention policies.
Career counseling : joint contributions of contextual action theory and the systems theory framework
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The influence of constructivism and the ongoing drive for convergence, both of career theories and between theory and practice, have been key drivers in the career development literature for two decades (Patton, International Handbook of Career Guidance, 2008). Both contextual action theory and systems theory are derived from the root metaphor of contextualism, which has been proffered as a worldview to assist scientists and practitioners in organizing day-to-day experiential data. This chapter identifies the theoretical contributions of the Systems Theory Framework (STF) (Patton and McMahon, Career development and systems theory: A new development, 1999, Career psychology in South Africa, 2006) and Contextual Action Theory (Young and Valach, The future of career, 2000, Journal of Vocational Behavior 64:499–514, 2004; Young et al., Career choice and development, 1996, Career choice and development, 2002), each of which has advanced thinking in theory integration and in the integration between theory and practice in the career development and counseling field. Young et al. (Career development in childhood and adolescence, 2007) noted the connections between the Patton and McMahon systems theory approach and the contextual action theory approach and these connections will be highlighted in terms of the application of these theoretical developments to practice in career counseling, with a particular focus on the commonalities between the two approaches and what counselors can learn from each of them. In particular, this chapter will discuss common conceptual understandings and practice dimensions.
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Bone-anchored prostheses are increasingly acknowledged as viable alternative method of attachment of artificial limb compared to socket-suspended prostheses. To date, a few osseointegration fixations are commercially available. Several devices are at different stages of development particularly in Europe and the US. Clearly, the current momentum experienced worldwide is creating a need for a standardized evaluation framework to assess the benefits and safety of each procedure.
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Abstract Background A novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus was first found in humans in Shanghai, and infected over 433 patients in China. To date, very little is known about the spatiotemporal variability or environmental drivers of the risk of H7N9 infection. This study explored the spatial and temporal variation of H7N9 infection and assessed the effects of temperature and rainfall on H7N9 incidence. Methods A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of the risk of H7N9 infection in Shanghai, by district and fortnight for the period 19th February–14th April 2013. Data on daily laboratory-confirmed H7N9 cases, and weather variability including temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm) were obtained from the Chinese Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention and Chinese Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively, and aggregated by fortnight. Results High spatial variations in the H7N9 risk were mainly observed in the east and centre of Shanghai municipality. H7N9 incidence rate was significantly associated with fortnightly mean temperature (Relative Risk (RR): 1.54; 95% credible interval (CI): 1.22–1.94) and fortnightly mean rainfall (RR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.47–5.56). Conclusion There was a substantial variation in the spatiotemporal distribution of H7N9 infection across different districts in Shanghai. Optimal temperature and rainfall may be one of the driving forces for H7N9.
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This thesis in software engineering presents a novel automated framework to identify similar operations utilized by multiple algorithms for solving related computing problems. It provides a new effective solution to perform multi-application based algorithm analysis, employing fundamentally light-weight static analysis techniques compared to the state-of-art approaches. Significant performance improvements are achieved across the objective algorithms through enhancing the efficiency of the identified similar operations, targeting discrete application domains.
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This thesis is a framework to formalise contractors process for bidding decision making through categorising the factors effecting the decision to bid into five categories. It opens the door to introduce a strategic planning system for pre-contract and business development activities which cost the contractors up to 5% of the project cost which is considered as high risk investment and would have impact on submitted bid price and the project delivery quality.
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The evolutionary advantage of humans is in our unique ability to process stories – we have highly evolved ‘narrative organs.’ Through storytelling, vicarious knowledge, even guarded knowledge, is used to help our species to survive. We learn, regardless of whether the story being told is ‘truth’ or ‘fiction.’ This article discusses how humans place themselves in stories, as both observer and participant, to create a ‘neural balance’ or sweet spot that allows them to be immersed in a story without being entirely threatened by it – and how this involvement in story is the formation of empathy – an empathy that is integral to forging a future humanity. It is through empathy, we argue, that stories have the power to save us.
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Online interactions are becoming commonplace for a multitude of educational purposes. Each context presents a unique and dynamic mix of variables that combine to shape the practice and the identities of those involved. In this article, sociocultural theories of learning and sociocultural theories of technology are explored as a way to view and to map the complex interactions that can occur. The case of synchronous online moderation meetings are used as an example of the combination of variables that can impact on the development of shared understandings of a practice. Online moderation can involve teachers from geographically diverse areas discussing and negotiating their judgement decisions. These discussions represent an intersection of a national curriculum, standards-referenced assessment, moderation protocols, site-specific practices and understandings, and individual teachers’ knowledges and histories. It is suggested that the proposed theoretical combination addresses some of the limitations of each of the theories when investigating such a dynamic context. As higher education moves into increasing use of online modes of communication and a higher level of accountability the relevance of this discussion to higher education is evident.
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Integrating renewable energy into public space is becoming more common as a climate change solution. However, this approach is often guided by the environmental pillar of sustainability, with less focus on the economic and social pillars. The purpose of this paper is to examine this issue in the speculative renewable energy propositions for Freshkills Park in New York City submitted for the 2012 Land Art Generator Initiative (LAGI) competition. This paper first proposes an optimal electricity distribution (OED) framework in and around public spaces based on relevant ecology and energy theory (Odum’s fourth and fifth law of thermodynamics). This framework addresses social engagement related to public interaction, and economic engagement related to the estimated quantity of electricity produced, in conjunction with environmental engagement related to the embodied energy required to construct the renewable energy infrastructure. Next, the study uses the OED framework to analyse the top twenty-five projects submitted for the LAGI 2012 competition. The findings reveal an electricity distribution imbalance and suggest a lack of in-depth understanding about sustainable electricity distribution within public space design. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research.