Managing uncertainty to improve the cost performance of complex infrastructure projects

There has been a recent spate of high profile infrastructure cost overruns in Australia and internationally. This is just the tip of a longer-term and more deeply-seated problem with initial budget estimating practice, well recognised in both academic research and industry reviews: the problem of uncertainty. A case study of the Sydney Opera House is used to identify and illustrate the key causal factors and system dynamics of cost overruns. It is conventionally the role of risk management to deal with such uncertainty, but the type and extent of the uncertainty involved in complex projects is shown to render established risk management techniques ineffective. This paper considers a radical advance on current budget estimating practice which involves a particular approach to statistical modelling complemented by explicit training in estimating practice. The statistical modelling approach combines the probability management techniques of Savage, which operate on actual distributions of values rather than flawed representations of distributions, and the data pooling technique of Skitmore, where the size of the reference set is optimised. Estimating training employs particular calibration development methods pioneered by Hubbard, which reduce the bias of experts caused by over-confidence and improve the consistency of subjective decision-making. A new framework for initial budget estimating practice is developed based on the combined statistical and training methods, with each technique being explained and discussed.

Scheduling techniques to optimise sugarcane rail transport systems

In Australia, railway systems play a vital role in transporting the sugarcane crop from farms to mills. In this paper, a novel job shop approach is proposed to create a more efficient integrated harvesting and sugarcane transport scheduling system to reduce the cost of sugarcane transport. There are several benefits that can be attained by treating the train scheduling problem as a job shop problem. Job shop is generic and suitable for all trains scheduling problems. Job shop technique prevents operating two trains on one section at the same time because it considers that the section or the machine is unique. This technique is more promising to find better solutions in reasonable computation times.

A journey access tool to facilitate mobility-related access for people with disabilities in low and middle income countries

People with disabilities (PWD) experience difficulties in accessing the transport system (including both infrastructure and services) to meet their needs for health care, employment and other activities. Our research shows that lack of access to the journeys needed for these purposes is a more significant barrier in low and middle income countries than in high income countries, and results in inadequate health care, rehabilitation and access to education and employment. At the same time, the existing transport system in low and middle income countries presents much higher road crash risks than in high income countries. By combining the principles and methods of Road Safety Audit and disability access, and adapting these Western approaches to a low/middle income country context, we have worked with Handicap International Cambodia to develop a Journey Access Tool (JAT) for use by disabled peoples’ organisations (DPOs), people with a disability and other key stakeholders. A key element of the approach is that it involves the participation of PWD on the journeys that they need to take, and it identifies infrastructure and service improvements that should be prioritised in order to facilitate access to these journeys. The JAT has been piloted in Cambodia with a range of PWD. This presentation will outline the design of the JAT and the results of the pilot studies. The information gained thus far strongly suggests that the JAT is a valuable and cost-effective approach that can be used by DPOs and professionals to identify barriers to access and prioritise the steps needed to address them.

Modeling transport through an environment crowded by a mixture of obstacles of different shapes and sizes

Many biological environments are crowded by macromolecules, organelles and cells which can impede the transport of other cells and molecules. Previous studies have sought to describe these effects using either random walk models or fractional order diffusion equations. Here we examine the transport of both a single agent and a population of agents through an environment containing obstacles of varying size and shape, whose relative densities are drawn from a specified distribution. Our simulation results for a single agent indicate that smaller obstacles are more effective at retarding transport than larger obstacles; these findings are consistent with our simulations of the collective motion of populations of agents. In an attempt to explore whether these kinds of stochastic random walk simulations can be described using a fractional order diffusion equation framework, we calibrate the solution of such a differential equation to our averaged agent density information. Our approach suggests that these kinds of commonly used differential equation models ought to be used with care since we are unable to match the solution of a fractional order diffusion equation to our data in a consistent fashion over a finite time period.

Understanding urban rail travel for improved patronage forecasting

Improved forecasting of urban rail patronage is essential for effective policy development and efficient planning for new rail infrastructure. Past modelling and forecasting of urban rail patronage has been based on legacy modelling approaches and often conducted at the general level of public transport demand, rather than being specific to urban rail. This project canvassed current Australian practice and international best practice to develop and estimate time series and cross-sectional models of rail patronage for Australian mainland state capital cities. This involved the implementation of a large online survey of rail riders and non-riders for each of the state capital cities, thereby resulting in a comprehensive database of respondent socio-economic profiles, travel experience, attitudes to rail and other modes of travel, together with stated preference responses to a wide range of urban travel scenarios. Estimation of the models provided a demonstration of their ability to provide information on the major influences on the urban rail travel decision. Rail fares, congestion and rail service supply all have a strong influence on rail patronage, while a number of less significant factors such as fuel price and access to a motor vehicle are also influential. Of note, too, is the relative homogeneity of rail user profiles across the state capitals. Rail users tended to have higher incomes and education levels. They are also younger and more likely to be in full-time employment than non-rail users. The project analysis reported here represents only a small proportion of what could be accomplished utilising the survey database. More comprehensive investigation was beyond the scope of the project and has been left for future work.

Transport-related fatalities and injuries leading to hospitalisation in pre-school children

Pre-school children grow and develop rapidly with age and their changing capabilities are reflected in the ways in which they are injured. Using coded and textual descriptions of transport-related injuries in children under five years of age from the Queensland Injury Surveillance Unit (QISU) this paper profiles the modes of such injuries by single year of age. The QISU collects information on all injury presentations to emergency department in hospitals throughout Queensland using both coded information and textual description. Almost all transport-related injuries in children under one year are due to motor vehicle crashes but these become proportionately less common thereafter, while injuries while cycling become proportionately more common with age. Slow-speed vehicle runovers peak at age one year but occur at all ages in the range. Bicycle-related fatalities are rare in this age group. If bicycle-related injuries are excluded, the profiles of fatal and non-fatal injuries are broadly similar. Comparison with a Queensland hospital series suggests that these results are broadly representative.

How do construction firms learn on collaborative infrastructure projects?

Construction firms that employ collaborative procurement approaches develop operating routines through joint learning so as to improve infrastructure project performance. This paper reports a study based on a survey sample of 320 construction practitioners which were involved in collaborative infrastructure delivery in Australia. The study developed valid and reliable scales for measuring collaborative learning capability (CLC), and used the scales to evaluate the CLC of contractor and consultant firms within the sample. The evaluation suggests that whilst these firms explore knowledge from both internal and external sources, transform both explicit and tacit knowledge, and apply and internalise new knowledge, they can improve the extent to which these routines are applied to optimise project performance.

Scheduling tools to reduce the cost of cane railway transport

Cane railway systems provide empty bins for harvesters to fill and full bins of cane for the factory to process. These operations need to be conducted in a timely fashion to minimise delays to harvesters and the factory and to minimise the cut-to-crush delay, while also minimising the cost of providing this service. A range of tools has been provided over the years to assist in this process. This paper reviews the objectives of the cane transport system and the tools available to achieve those objectives. The facilities within these tools to assist in the control of costs are highlighted.

Participation in Urban Interaction Design for Civic Engagement

The future of civic engagement is characterised by both technological innovation as well as new technological user practices that are fuelled by trends towards mobile, personal devices; broadband connectivity; open data; urban interfaces; and cloud computing. These technology trends are progressing at a rapid pace, and have led global technology vendors to package and sell the “Smart City” as a centralised service delivery platform predicted to optimise and enhance cities’ key performance indicators – and generate a profitable market. The top-down deployment of these large and proprietary technology platforms have helped sectors such as energy, transport, and healthcare to increase efficiencies. However, an increasing number of scholars and commentators warn of another “IT bubble” emerging. Along with some city leaders, they argue that the top-down approach does not fit the governance dynamics and values of a liberal democracy when applied across sectors. A thorough understanding is required, of the socio-cultural nuances of how people work, live, play across different environments, and how they employ social media and mobile devices to interact with, engage in, and constitute public realms. Although the term “slacktivism” is sometimes used to denote a watered down version of civic engagement and activism that is reduced to clicking a “Like” button and signing online petitions, we believe that we are far from witnessing another Biedermeier period that saw people focus on the domestic and the non-political. There is plenty of evidence to the contrary, such as post-election violence in Kenya in 2008, the Occupy movements in New York, Hong Kong and elsewhere, the Arab Spring, Stuttgart 21, Fukushima, the Taksim Gezi Park in Istanbul, and the Vinegar Movement in Brazil in 2013. These examples of civic action shape the dynamics of governments, and in turn, call for new processes to be incorporated into governance structures. Participatory research into these new processes across the triad of people, place and technology is a significant and timely investment to foster productive, sustainable, and liveable human habitats. With this article, we want to reframe the current debates in academia and priorities in industry and government to allow citizens and civic actors to take their rightful centrepiece place in civic movements. This calls for new participatory approaches for co-inquiry and co-design. It is an evolving process with an explicit agenda to facilitate change, and we propose participatory action research (PAR) as an indispensable component in the journey to develop new governance infrastructures and practices for civic engagement. We do not limit our definition of civic technologies to tools specifically designed to simply enhance government and governance, such as renewing your car registration online or casting your vote electronically on election day. Rather, we are interested in civic media and technologies that foster citizen engagement in the widest sense, and particularly the participatory design of such civic technologies that strive to involve citizens in political debate and action as well as question conventional approaches to political issues. The rationale for this approach is an alternative to smart cities in a “perpetual tomorrow,” based on many weak and strong signals of civic actions revolving around technology seen today. It seeks to emphasise and direct attention to active citizenry over passive consumerism, human actors over human factors, culture over infrastructure, and prosperity over efficiency. First, we will have a look at some fundamental issues arising from applying simplistic smart city visions to the kind of a problem a city poses. We focus on the touch points between “the city” and its civic body, the citizens. In order to provide for meaningful civic engagement, the city must provide appropriate interfaces.