Pedestrian Crashes in Ethiopia: Identification of contributing factors through modelling of exposure and road environment variables

Pedestrian safety is a critical issue in Ethiopia. Reports show that 50 to 60% of traffic fatality victims in the country are pedestrians. The primary aim of this research was to examine the possible causes of and contributing factors to crashes with pedestrians in Ethiopia, and improve pedestrian safety by recommending possible countermeasures. The secondary aim was to develop appropriate pedestrian crash models for two-way two-lane rural roads and roundabouts in the capital city of Ethiopia. This research uses quantitative methods throughout the process of the investigation. The research has applied various statistical methods. The results of this research support the idea that geometric and operational features have significant influence on pedestrian safety and crashes. Accordingly, policies and strategies are needed to safeguard pedestrians in Ethiopia.

Modelling ciphersuite and version negotiation in the TLS protocol

Real-world cryptographic protocols such as the widely used Transport Layer Security (TLS) protocol support many different combinations of cryptographic algorithms (called ciphersuites) and simultaneously support different versions. Recent advances in provable security have shown that most modern TLS ciphersuites are secure authenticated and confidential channel establishment (ACCE) protocols, but these analyses generally focus on single ciphersuites in isolation. In this paper we extend the ACCE model to cover protocols with many different sub-protocols, capturing both multiple ciphersuites and multiple versions, and define a security notion for secure negotiation of the optimal sub-protocol. We give a generic theorem that shows how secure negotiation follows, with some additional conditions, from the authentication property of secure ACCE protocols. Using this framework, we analyse the security of ciphersuite and three variants of version negotiation in TLS, including a recently proposed mechanism for detecting fallback attacks.

Mentors and modelling primary science teaching practices

Introduction There are concerns about the science performance of Australian primary school students (Good rum, Hackling & Rennie, 2001), which requires a “major set of initiatives that focus on teacher beliefs and practices in the teaching and learning of science” (Sharpley, Tytler & Conley, 2000, p. 1). The science education community is calling for a “new approach” to science education in American schools, with an approach where a “mentor models, then coaches, then scaffolds, and then gradually fades scaffolding” (Barab & Hay, 2001, pp. 74, 90). The mentor, as modeller of practice, appears to be a key factor for enhancing science teaching, which may assist towards implementing science education reform

Modelling of Electric Fields

South Africa has an electrical transmission grid of over 25 000 km of overhead power lines with voltages of 132 kV to 765 kV. The grid has been largely designed and built by the power utility, Eskom. This book embodies the planning philosophies, design principles and construction practices of Eskom. It is the culmination of decades of thought, study, research and the practical experience of many overhead power line engineers and researchers. The book covers the main aspects of overhead power line design and construction, from electrical first principles, system planning, insulation co-ordination (including live line working), mechanical design through to environmental impact management and power line communications. The content emphasises the need for close interaction between all technical disciplines involved and the importance of optimising designs for economy and performance. Additional challenges in South Africa are the relatively high altitude of the interior plateau (1 000 m to 1 700 m above sea level), severe lightning in some areas and long transmission distances. The book explains how these factors are accommodated in modern designs. Other advanced work covered includes the use and understanding of polymeric insulators, the judicious reduction of phase-to-phase spacings and the adoption of guyed structures.

Numerical modelling and design of unlined cold-formed steel wall frames

Cold-formed steel wall frame systems using lipped or unlipped C-sections and gypsum plasterboard lining are commonly utilised in the construction of both the load bearing and non-load bearing walls in the residential, commercial and industrial buildings. However, the structural behaviour of unlined and lined stud wall frames is not well understood and adequate design rules are not available. A detailed research program was therefore undertaken to investigate the behaviour of stud wall frame systems. As the first step in this research, the problem relating to the degree of end fixity of stud was investigated. The studs are usually connected to the top and bottom tracks and the degree of end fixity provided by these tracks is not adequately addressed by the design codes. A finite element model of unlined frames was therefore developed, and validated using full scale experimental results. It was then used in a detailed parametric study to develop appropriate design rules for unlined wall frames. This study has shown that by using appropriate effective length factors, the ultimate load and failure modes of the unlined studs can be accurately predicted using the provisions of Australian or American cold-formed steel structures design codes. This paper presents the details of the finite element analyses, the results and recommended design rules for unlined wall frames.

Groundwater balance research to improve the accuracy of drawdown predictions in the Surat Basin, Queensland

Groundwater modelling studies rely on an accurate determination of inputs and outputs that make up the water balance. Often there is large uncertainty associated with estimates of recharge and unmetered groundwater use. This can translate to equivalent uncertainty in the forecasting of sustainable yields, impacts of extraction, and susceptibility of groundwater dependent ecosystems. In the case of Coal Seam Gas, it is important to characterise the temporal and special distribution of depressurisation in the reservoir and how this may or may not extend to the adjacent aquifers. A regional groundwater flow model has been developed by the Queensland Government to predict drawdown impacts due to Coal Seam Gas activities in the Surat basin. This groundwater model is undergoing continued refinement and there is currently scope to address some of the key areas of uncertainty including better quantification of groundwater recharge and unmetered groundwater extractions. Research is currently underway to improve the accuracy of estimates of both of these components of the groundwater balance in order to reduce uncertainty in predicted groundwater drawdowns due to CSG activities.

QoE modelling for VP9 and H.265 videos on mobile devices

Current mobile devices and streaming video services support high definition (HD) video, increasing expectation for more contents. HD video streaming generally requires large bandwidth, exerting pressures on existing networks. New generation of video compression codecs, such as VP9 and H.265/HEVC, are expected to be more effective for reducing bandwidth. Existing studies to measure the impact of its compression on users’ perceived quality have not been focused on mobile devices. Here we propose new Quality of Experience (QoE) models that consider both subjective and objective assessments of mobile video quality. We introduce novel predictors, such as the correlations between video resolution and size of coding unit, and achieve a high goodness-of-fit to the collected subjective assessment data (adjusted R-square >83%). The performance analysis shows that H.265 can potentially achieve 44% to 59% bit rate saving compared to H.264/AVC, slightly better than VP9 at 33% to 53%, depending on video content and resolution.

Modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes

Abnormally high price spikes in spot electricity markets represent a significant risk to market participants. As such, a literature has developed that focuses on forecasting the probability of such spike events, moving beyond simply forecasting the level of price. Many univariate time series models have been proposed to dealwith spikes within an individual market region. This paper is the first to develop a multivariate self-exciting point process model for dealing with price spikes across connected regions in the Australian National Electricity Market. The importance of the physical infrastructure connecting the regions on the transmission of spikes is examined. It is found that spikes are transmitted between the regions, and the size of spikes is influenced by the available transmission capacity. It is also found that improved risk estimates are obtained when inter-regional linkages are taken into account.

Identity-by-Descent Mapping to Detect Rare Variants Conferring Susceptibility to Multiple Sclerosis

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified around 60 common variants associated with multiple sclerosis (MS), but these loci only explain a fraction of the heritability of MS. Some missing heritability may be caused by rare variants that have been suggested to play an important role in the aetiology of complex diseases such as MS. However current genetic and statistical methods for detecting rare variants are expensive and time consuming. 'Population-based linkage analysis' (PBLA) or so called identity-by-descent (IBD) mapping is a novel way to detect rare variants in extant GWAS datasets. We employed BEAGLE fastIBD to search for rare MS variants utilising IBD mapping in a large GWAS dataset of 3,543 cases and 5,898 controls. We identified a genome-wide significant linkage signal on chromosome 19 (LOD = 4.65; p = 1.9×10-6). Network analysis of cases and controls sharing haplotypes on chromosome 19 further strengthened the association as there are more large networks of cases sharing haplotypes than controls. This linkage region includes a cluster of zinc finger genes of unknown function. Analysis of genome wide transcriptome data suggests that genes in this zinc finger cluster may be involved in very early developmental regulation of the CNS. Our study also indicates that BEAGLE fastIBD allowed identification of rare variants in large unrelated population with moderate computational intensity. Even with the development of whole-genome sequencing, IBD mapping still may be a promising way to narrow down the region of interest for sequencing priority. © 2013 Lin et al.

Polymorphisms in the receptor tyrosine kinase MERTK gene are associated with Multiple Sclerosis susceptibility

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a debilitating, chronic demyelinating disease of the central nervous system affecting over 2 million people worldwide. The TAM family of receptor tyrosine kinases (TYRO3, AXL and MERTK) have been implicated as important players during demyelination in both animal models of MS and in the human disease. We therefore conducted an association study to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within genes encoding the TAM receptors and their ligands associated with MS. Analysis of genotype data from a genome-wide association study which consisted of 1618 MS cases and 3413 healthy controls conducted by the Australia and New Zealand Multiple Sclerosis Genetics Consortium (ANZgene) revealed several SNPs within the MERTK gene (Chromosome 2q14.1, Accession Number NG_011607.1) that showed suggestive association with MS. We therefore interrogated 28 SNPs in MERTK in an independent replication cohort of 1140 MS cases and 1140 healthy controls. We found 12 SNPs that replicated, with 7 SNPs showing p-values of less than 10-5 when the discovery and replication cohorts were combined. All 12 replicated SNPs were in strong linkage disequilibrium with each other. In combination, these data suggest the MERTK gene is a novel risk gene for MS susceptibility. © 2011 Ma et al.

Whole-genome screening in ankylosing spondylitis: Evidence of non-MHC genetic-susceptibility loci

Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is a common inflammatory arthritis predominantly affecting the axial skeleton. Susceptibility to the disease is thought to be oligogenic. To identify the genes involved, we have performed a genomewide scan in 185 families containing 255 affected sibling pairs. Two-point and multipoint nonparametric linkage analysis was performed. Regions were identified showing "suggestive" or stronger linkage with the disease on chromosomes 1p, 2q, 6p, 9q, 10q, 16q, and 19q. The MHC locus was identified as encoding the greatest component of susceptibility, with an overall LOD score of 15.6. The strongest non-MHC linkage lies on chromosome 16q (overall LOD score 4.7). These results strongly support the presence of non-MHC genetic-susceptibility factors in AS and point to their likely locations.

Immunochip analysis identifies multiple susceptibility loci for systemic sclerosis

In this study, 1,833 systemic sclerosis (SSc) cases and 3,466 controls were genotyped with the Immunochip array. Classical alleles, amino acid residues, and SNPs across the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region were imputed and tested. These analyses resulted in a model composed of six polymorphic amino acid positions and seven SNPs that explained the observed significant associations in the region. In addition, a replication step comprising 4,017 SSc cases and 5,935 controls was carried out for several selected non-HLA variants, reaching a total of 5,850 cases and 9,401 controls of European ancestry. Following this strategy, we identified and validated three SSc risk loci, including DNASE1L3 at 3p14, the SCHIP1-IL12A locus at 3q25, and ATG5 at 6q21, as well as a suggested association of the TREH-DDX6 locus at 11q23. The associations of several previously reported SSc risk loci were validated and further refined, and the observed peak of association in PXK was related to DNASE1L3. Our study has increased the number of known genetic associations with SSc, provided further insight into the pleiotropic effects of shared autoimmune risk factors, and highlighted the power of dense mapping for detecting previously overlooked susceptibility loci.

The interleukin 1 gene cluster contains a major susceptibility locus for ankylosing spondylitis

Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is a common and highly heritable inflammatory arthropathy. Although the gene HLA-B27 is almost essential for the inheritance of the condition, it alone is not sufficient to explain the pattern of familial recurrence of the disease. We have previously demonstrated suggestive linkage of AS to chromosome 2q13, a region containing the interleukin 1 (IL-1) family gene cluster, which includes several strong candidates for involvement in the disease. In the current study, we describe strong association and transmission of IL-1 family gene cluster single-nucleotide polymorphisms and haplotypes with AS.

The effect of HLA-DR genes on susceptibility to and severity of ankylosing spondylitis

Objective. To analyze the effect of HLA-DR genes on susceptibility to and severity of ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Methods. Three hundred sixty- three white British AS patients were studied; 149 were carefully assessed for a range of clinical manifestations, and disease severity was assessed using a structured questionnaire. Limited HLA class I typing and complete HLA-DR typing were performed using DNA-based methods. HLA data from 13,634 healthy white British bone marrow donors were used for comparison. Results. A significant association between DR1 and AS was found, independent of HLA-B27 (overall odds ratio [OR] 1.4, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.1-1.8, P = 0.02; relative risk [RR] 2.7, 95% CI 1.5-4.8, P = 6 x 10-4 among homozygotes; RR 2.1, 95% CI 1.5-2.8, P = 5 x 10-6 among heterozygotes). A large but weakly significant association between DR8 and AS was noted, particularly among DR8 homozygotes (RR 6.8, 95% CI 1.6-29.2, P = 0.01 among homozygotes; RR 1.6, 95% CI 1.0-2.7, P = 0.07 among heterozygotes). A negative association with DR12 (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.09-0.5, P = 0.001) was noted. HLA-DR7 was associated with younger age at onset of disease (mean age at onset 18 years for DR7-positive patients and 23 years for DR7-negative patients; Z score 3.21, P = 0.001). No other HLA class I or class H associations with disease severity or with different clinical manifestations of AS were found. Conclusion. The results of this study suggest that HLA-DR genes may have a weak effect on susceptibility to AS independent of HLA-B27, but do not support suggestions that they affect disease severity or different clinical manifestations.