Earned value management insights using inferential statistics

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to summarise a successfully defended doctoral thesis. The main purpose of this paper is to provide a summary of the scope, and main issues raised in the thesis so that readers undertaking studies in the same or connected areas may be aware of current contributions to the topic. The secondary aims are to frame the completed thesis in the context of doctoral-level research in project management as well as offer ideas for further investigation which would serve to extend scientific knowledge on the topic. Design/methodology/approach – Research reported in this paper is based on a quantitative study using inferential statistics aimed at better understanding the actual and potential usage of earned value management (EVM) as applied to external projects under contract. Theories uncovered during the literature review were hypothesized and tested using experiential data collected from 145 EVM practitioners with direct experience on one or more external projects under contract that applied the methodology. Findings – The results of this research suggest that EVM is an effective project management methodology. The principles of EVM were shown to be significant positive predictors of project success on contracted efforts and to be a relatively greater positive predictor of project success when using fixed-price versus cost-plus (CP) type contracts. Moreover, EVM's work-breakdown structure (WBS) utility was shown to positively contribute to the formation of project contracts. The contribution was not significantly different between fixed-price and CP contracted projects, with exceptions in the areas of schedule planning and payment planning. EVM's “S” curve benefited the administration of project contracts. The contribution of the S-curve was not significantly different between fixed-price and CP contracted projects. Furthermore, EVM metrics were shown to also be important contributors to the administration of project contracts. The relative contribution of EVM metrics to projects under fixed-price versus CP contracts was not significantly different, with one exception in the area of evaluating and processing payment requests. Practical implications – These results have important implications for project practitioners, EVM advocates, as well as corporate and governmental policy makers. EVM should be considered for all projects – not only for its positive contribution to project contract development and administration, for its contribution to project success as well, regardless of contract type. Contract type should not be the sole determining factor in the decision whether or not to use EVM. More particularly, the more fixed the contracted project cost, the more the principles of EVM explain the success of the project. The use of EVM mechanics should also be used in all projects regardless of contract type. Payment planning using a WBS should be emphasized in fixed-price contracts using EVM in order to help mitigate performance risk. Schedule planning using a WBS should be emphasized in CP contracts using EVM in order to help mitigate financial risk. Similarly, EVM metrics should be emphasized in fixed-price contracts in evaluating and processing payment requests. Originality/value – This paper provides a summary of cutting-edge research work and a link to the published thesis that researchers can use to help them understand how the research methodology was applied as well as how it can be extended.

Nitrous oxide emissions from irrigated wheat in Australia : impact of irrigation management

Background and Aims: Irrigation management affects soil water dynamics as well as the soil microbial carbon and nitrogen turnover and potentially the biosphere-atmosphere exchange of greenhouse gasses (GHG). We present a study on the effect of three irrigation treatments on the emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) from irrigated wheat on black vertisols in South-Eastern Queensland, Australia. Methods: Soil N2O fluxes from wheat were monitored over one season with a fully automated system that measured emissions on a sub-daily basis. Measurements were taken from 3 subplots for each treatment within a randomized split-plot design. Results: Highest N2O emissions occurred after rainfall or irrigation and the amount of irrigation water applied was found to influence the magnitude of these “emission pulses”. Daily N2O emissions varied from -0.74 to 20.46 g N2O-N ha-1 day-1 resulting in seasonal losses ranging from 0.43 to 0.75 kg N2O N ha-1 season -1 for the different irrigation treatments. Emission factors (EF = proportion of N fertilizer emitted as N2O) over the wheat cropping season, uncorrected for background emissions, ranged from 0.2 to 0.4% of total N applied for the different treatments. Highest seasonal N2O emissions were observed in the treatment with the highest irrigation intensity; however, the N2O intensity (N2O emission per crop yield) was highest in the treatment with the lowest irrigation intensity. Conclusions: Our data suggest that timing and amount of irrigation can effectively be used to reduce N2O losses from irrigated agricultural systems; however, in order to develop sustainable mitigation strategies the N2O intensity of a cropping system is an important concept that needs to be taken into account.

Netflix : a house of cards or the new HBO?

'House of Cards' was a $100 million, 13-episode TV series starring Kevin Spacey and directed by David Fincher, that premiered in 2013 exclusively online, available only to Netflix subscribers. For over a year, Netflix had received much media attention for both its rapid international expansion and for its financial woes resulting in a plummeting share price and had some financial analysts postulating that it might not even survive. This article asks how can a company that teetering on the brink spend $100 million commissioning a TV series, let alone push ahead with global expansion? It asks is Netflix’s business model sustainable? And if it is, what does its entry into original programming mean for the future of television?

The distribution of construction project bids

This paper describes an analysis of construction project bids to determine (a) the global distribution and (b) factors influencing the distribution of bids. The global distribution of bids was found, by using a battery of ll test statistics, to be approximated by a three-parameter log normal distribution. No global spread parameter was found. A multivariate analysis revealed the year of tender to be the major influencing factor. Consideration of the construction order, tender price and output indices lead to the conclusion that distributional spread reflected the degree of difference in pricing policies between bidders and the skewness of the distributions reflected the degree of competition. The paper concludes with a tentative model of the causal relationships between the factors and distributional characteristics involved.

The contribution of psychosocial factors to socioeconomic differences in food purchasing

In developed countries the relationship between socioeconomic position (SEP) and health is unequivocal. Those who are socioeconomically disadvantaged are known to experience higher morbidity and mortality from a range of chronic diet-related conditions compared to those of higher SEP. Socioeconomic inequalities in diet are well established. Compared to their more advantaged counterparts, those of low SEP are consistently found to consume diets less consistent with dietary guidelines (i.e. higher in fat, salt and sugar and lower in fibre, fruit and vegetables). Although the reasons for dietary inequalities remain unclear, understanding how such differences arise is important for the development of strategies to reduce health inequalities. Both environmental (e.g. proximity of supermarkets, price, and availability of foods) and psychosocial (e.g. taste preference, nutrition knowledge) influences are proposed to account for inequalities in food choices. Although in the United States (US), United Kingdom (UK), and parts of Australia, environmental factors are associated with socioeconomic differences in food choices, these factors do not completely account for the observed inequalities. Internationally, this context has prompted calls for further exploration of the role of psychological and social factors in relation to inequalities in food choices. It is this task that forms the primary goal of this PhD research. In the small body of research examining the contribution of psychosocial factors to inequalities in food choices, studies have focussed on food cost concerns, nutrition knowledge or health concerns. These factors are generally found to be influential. However, since a range of psychosocial factors are known determinants of food choices in the general population, it is likely that a range of factors also contribute to inequalities in food choices. Identification of additional psychosocial factors of relevance to inequalities in food choices would provide new opportunities for health promotion, including the adaption of existing strategies. The methodological features of previous research have also hindered the advancement of knowledge in this area and a lack of qualitative studies has resulted in a dearth of descriptive information on this topic. This PhD investigation extends previous research by assessing a range of psychosocial factors in relation to inequalities in food choices using both quantitative and qualitative techniques. Secondary data analyses were undertaken using data obtained from two Brisbane-based studies, the Brisbane Food Study (N=1003, conducted in 2000), and the Sixty Families Study (N=60, conducted in 1998). Both studies involved main household food purchasers completing an interviewer-administered survey within their own home. Data pertaining to food-purchasing, and psychosocial, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics were collected in each study. The mutual goals of both the qualitative and quantitative phases of this investigation were to assess socioeconomic differences in food purchasing and to identify psychosocial factors relevant to any observed differences. The quantitative methods then additionally considered whether the associations examined differed according to the socioeconomic indicator used (i.e. income or education). The qualitative analyses made a unique contribution to this project by generating detailed descriptions of socioeconomic differences in psychosocial factors. Those with lower levels of income and education were found to make food purchasing choices less consistent with dietary guidelines compared to those of high SEP. The psychosocial factors identified as relevant to food-purchasing inequalities were: taste preferences, health concerns, health beliefs, nutrition knowledge, nutrition concerns, weight concerns, nutrition label use, and several other values and beliefs unique to particular socioeconomic groups. Factors more tenuously or inconsistently related to socioeconomic differences in food purchasing were cost concerns, and perceived adequacy of the family diet. Evidence was displayed in both the quantitative and qualitative analyses to suggest that psychosocial factors contribute to inequalities in food purchasing in a collective manner. The quantitative analyses revealed that considerable overlap in the socioeconomic variation in food purchasing was accounted for by key psychosocial factors of importance, including taste preference, nutrition concerns, nutrition knowledge, and health concerns. Consistent with these findings, the qualitative transcripts demonstrated the interplay between such influential psychosocial factors in determining food-purchasing choices. The qualitative analyses found socioeconomic differences in the prioritisation of psychosocial factors in relation to food choices. This is suggestive of complex cultural factors that distinguish advantaged and disadvantaged groups and result in socioeconomically distinct schemas related to health and food choices. Compared to those of high SEP, those of lower SEP were less likely to indicate that health concerns, nutrition concerns, or food labels influenced food choices, and exhibited lower levels of nutrition knowledge. In the absence of health or nutrition-related concerns, taste preferences tended to dominate the food purchasing choices of those of low SEP. Overall, while cost concerns did not appear to be a main determinant of socioeconomic differences in food purchasing, this factor had a dominant influence on the food choices of some of the most disadvantaged respondents included in this research. The findings of this study have several implications for health promotion. The integrated operation of psychosocial factors on food purchasing inequalities indicates that multiple psychosocial factors may be appropriate to target in health promotion. It also seems possible that the inter-relatedness of psychosocial factors would allow health promotion targeting a single psychosocial factor to have a flow-on affect in terms of altering other influential psychosocial factors. This research also suggests that current mass marketing approaches to health promotion may not be effective across all socioeconomic groups due to differences in the priorities and main factors of influence in food purchasing decisions across groups. In addition to the practical recommendations for health promotion, this investigation, through the critique of previous research, and through the substantive study findings, has highlighted important methodological considerations for future research. Of particular note are the recommendations pertaining to the selection of socioeconomic indicators, measurement of relevant constructs, consideration of confounders, and development of an analytical approach. Addressing inequalities in health has been noted as a main objective by many health authorities and governments internationally. It is envisaged that the substantive and methodological findings of this thesis will make a useful contribution towards this important goal.

Genetic improvement of giant freshwater prawn in Vietnam

The giant freshwater prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) or GFP is one of the most important freshwater crustacean species in the inland aquaculture sector of many tropical and subtropical countries. Since the 1990’s, there has been rapid global expansion of freshwater prawn farming, especially in Asian countries, with an average annual rate of increase of 48% between 1999 and 2001 (New, 2005). In Vietnam, GFP is cultured in a variety of culture systems, typically in integrated or rotational rice-prawn culture (Phuong et al., 2006) and has become one of the most common farmed aquatic species in the country, due to its ability to grow rapidly and to attract high market price and high demand. Despite potential for expanded production, sustainability of freshwater prawn farming in the region is currently threatened by low production efficiency and vulnerability of farmed stocks to disease. Commercial large scale and small scale GFP farms in Vietnam have experienced relatively low stock productivity, large size and weight variation, a low proportion of edible meat (large head to body ratio), scarcity of good quality seed stock. The current situation highlights the need for a systematic stock improvement program for GFP in Vietnam aimed at improving economically important traits in this species. This study reports on the breeding program for fast growth employing combined (between and within) family selection in giant freshwater prawn in Vietnam. The base population was synthesized using a complete diallel cross including 9 crosses from two local stocks (DN and MK strains) and a third exotic stock (Malaysian strain - MY). In the next three selection generations, matings were conducted between genetically unrelated brood stock to produce full-sib and (paternal) half-sib families. All families were produced and reared separately until juveniles in each family were tagged as a batch using visible implant elastomer (VIE) at a body size of approximately 2 g. After tags were verified, 60 to 120 juveniles chosen randomly from each family were released into two common earthen ponds of 3,500 m2 pond for a grow-out period of 16 to 18 weeks. Selection applied at harvest on body weight was a combined (between and within) family selection approach. 81, 89, 96 and 114 families were produced for the Selection line in the F0, F1, F2 and F3 generations, respectively. In addition to the Selection line, 17 to 42 families were produced for the Control group in each generation. Results reported here are based on a data set consisting of 18,387 body and 1,730 carcass records, as well as full pedigree information collected over four generations. Variance and covariance components were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood fitting a multi-trait animal model. Experiments assessed performance of VIE tags in juvenile GFP of different size classes and individuals tagged with different numbers of tags showed that juvenile GFP at 2 g were of suitable size for VIE tags with no negative effects evident on growth or survival. Tag retention rates were above 97.8% and tag readability rates were 100% with a correct assignment rate of 95% through to mature animal size of up to 170 g. Across generations, estimates of heritability for body traits (body weight, body length, cephalothorax length, abdominal length, cephalothorax width and abdominal width) and carcass weight traits (abdominal weight, skeleton-off weight and telson-off weight) were moderate and ranged from 0.14 to 0.19 and 0.17 to 0.21, respectively. Body trait heritabilities estimated for females were significantly higher than for males whereas carcass weight trait heritabilities estimated for females and males were not significantly different (P > 0.05). Maternal and common environmental effects for body traits accounted for 4 to 5% of the total variance and were greater in females (7 to 10%) than in males (4 to 5%). Genetic correlations among body traits were generally high in both sexes. Genetic correlations between body and carcass weight traits were also high in the mixed sexes. Average selection response (% per generation) for body weight (transformed to square root) estimated as the difference between the Selection and the Control group was 7.4% calculated from least squares means (LSMs), 7.0% from estimated breeding values (EBVs) and 4.4% calculated from EBVs between two consecutive generations. Favourable correlated selection responses (estimated from LSMs) were detected for other body traits (12.1%, 14.5%, 10.4%, 15.5% and 13.3% for body length, cephalothorax length, abdominal length, cephalothorax width and abdominal width, respectively) over three selection generations. Data in the second selection generation showed positive correlated responses for carcass weight traits (8.8%, 8.6% and 8.8% for abdominal weight, skeleton-off weight and telson-off weight, respectively). Data in the third selection generation showed that heritability for body traits were moderate and ranged from 0.06 to 0.11 and 0.11 to 0.22 at weeks 10 and 18, respectively. Body trait heritabilities estimated at week 10 were not significantly lower than at week 18. Genetic correlations between body traits within age and genetic correlations for body traits between ages were generally high. Overall our results suggest that growth rate responds well to the application of family selection and carcass weight traits can also be improved in parallel, using this approach. Moreover, selection for high growth rate in GFP can be undertaken successfully before full market size has been reached. The outcome of this study was production of an improved culture strain of GFP for the Vietnamese culture industry that will be trialed in real farm production environments to confirm the genetic gains identified in the experimental stock improvement program.

Poly(2-oxazoline) hydrogels for controlled fibroblast attachment

Currently there is a lack of choice when selecting synthetic materials with the cell-instructive properties demanded by modern biomaterials. The purpose of this study was to investigate the attachment of cells onto hydrogels prepared from poly(2-oxazoline)s selectively-functionalized with cell adhesion motifs. A water-soluble macromer based on the microwave-assisted cationic ring-opening polymerization of 2-methyl-2-oxazoline and 2-(dec-9-enyl)-2-oxazoline was functionalized with the peptide CRGDSG or controls using thiol-ene photochemistry followed by facile crosslinking in the presence of a dithiol crosslinker. The growth of human fibroblasts on the hydrogel surfaces was dictated by the structure and amount of incorporated peptide. Controls without any peptide showed resistance to cellular attachment. The benignity of the crosslinking conditions was demonstrated by the incorporation of fibroblasts within the hydrogels to produce three-dimensional cell-polymer constructs.

The molecular bases of training adaptation

Skeletal muscle is a malleable tissue capable of altering the type and amount of protein in response to disruptions to cellular homeostasis. The process of exercise-induced adaptation in skeletal muscle involves a multitude of signalling mechanisms initiating replication of specific DNA genetic sequences, enabling subsequent translation of the genetic message and ultimately generating a series of amino acids that form new proteins. The functional consequences of these adaptations are determined by training volume, intensity and frequency, and the half-life of the protein. Moreover, many features of the training adaptation are specific to the type of stimulus, such as the mode of exercise. Prolonged endurance training elicits a variety of metabolic and morphological changes, including mitochondrial biogenesis, fast-to-slow fibre-type transformation and substrate metabolism. In contrast, heavy resistance exercise stimulates synthesis of contractile proteins responsible for muscle hypertrophy and increases in maximal contractile force output. Concomitant with the vastly different functional outcomes induced by these diverse exercise modes, the genetic and molecular mechanisms of adaptation are distinct. With recent advances in technology, it is now possible to study the effects of various training interventions on a variety of signalling proteins and early-response genes in skeletal muscle. Although it cannot presently be claimed that such scientific endeavours have influenced the training practices of elite athletes, these new and exciting technologies have provided insight into how current training techniques result in specific muscular adaptations, and may ultimately provide clues for future and novel training methodologies. Greater knowledge of the mechanisms and interaction of exercise-induced adaptive pathways in skeletal muscle is important for our understanding of the aetiology of disease, maintenance of metabolic and functional capacity with aging, and training for athletic performance. This article highlights the effects of exercise on molecular and genetic mechanisms of training adaptation in skeletal muscle.

Alcohol consumption in young adults : the role of multisensory imagery

Little is known about the subjective experience of alcohol desire and craving in young people. Descriptions of alcohol urges continue to be extensively used in the everyday lexicon of young, non-dependent drinkers. Elaborated Intrusion (EI) Theory contends that imagery is central to craving and desires, and predicts that alcohol-related imagery will be associated with greater frequency and amount of drinking. This study involved 1,535 age stratified 18–25 year olds who completed an alcohol–related survey that included the Imagery scale of the Alcohol Craving Experience (ACE) questionnaire. Imagery items predicted 12-16% of the variance in concurrent alcohol consumption. Higher total Imagery subscale scores were linearly associated with greater drinking frequency and lower self-efficacy for moderate drinking. Interference with alcohol imagery may have promise as a preventive or early intervention target in young people.

Monitoring the impacts of trade agreements on food environments

The liberalization of international trade and foreign direct investment through multilateral, regional and bilateral agreements has had profound implications for the structure and nature of food systems, and therefore, for the availability, nutritional quality, accessibility, price and promotion of foods in different locations. Public health attention has only relatively recently turned to the links between trade and investment agreements, diets and health, and there is currently no systematic monitoring of this area. This paper reviews the available evidence on the links between trade agreements, food environments and diets from an obesity and non-communicable disease (NCD) perspective. Based on the key issues identified through the review, the paper outlines an approach for monitoring the potential impact of trade agreements on food environments and obesity/NCD risks. The proposed monitoring approach encompasses a set of guiding principles, recommended procedures for data collection and analysis, and quantifiable ‘minimal’, ‘expanded’ and ‘optimal’ measurement indicators to be tailored to national priorities, capacity and resources. Formal risk assessment processes of existing and evolving trade and investment agreements, which focus on their impacts on food environments will help inform the development of healthy trade policy, strengthen domestic nutrition and health policy space and ultimately protect population nutrition.

A novel real time pricing scheme for demand response in residential distribution systems

Price based technique is one way to handle increase in peak demand and deal with voltage violations in residential distribution systems. This paper proposes an improved real time pricing scheme for residential customers with demand response option. Smart meters and in-home display units are used to broadcast the price and appropriate load adjustment signals. Customers are given an opportunity to respond to the signals and adjust the loads. This scheme helps distribution companies to deal with overloading problems and voltage issues in a more efficient way. Also, variations in wholesale electricity prices are passed on to electricity customers to take collective measure to reduce network peak demand. It is ensured that both customers and utility are benefitted by this scheme.

Forrest v ASIC : a ‘perfect storm’

The policy objectives of the continuous disclosure regime augmented by the misleading or deceptive conduct provisions in the Corporations Act are to enhance the integrity and efficiency of Australian capital markets by ensuring equality of opportunity for all investors through public access to accurate and material company information to enable them to make well-informed investment decisions. This article argues that there were failures by the regulators in the performance of their roles to protect the interests of investors in Forrest v ASIC; FMG v ASIC (2012) 247 CLR 486: ASX failed to enforce timely compliance with the continuous disclosure regime and ensure that the market was properly informed by seeking immediate clarification from FMG as to the agreed fixed price and/or seeking production of a copy of the CREC agreement; and ASIC failed to succeed in the High Court because of the way it pleaded its case. The article also examines the reasoning of the High Court in Forrest v ASIC and whether it might have changed previous understandings of the Campomar test for determining whether representations directed to the public generally are misleading.

People living in hilly residential areas in metropolitan Perth have less diabetes : spurious association or important environmental determinant?

BACKGROUND: Variations in 'slope' (how steep or flat the ground is) may be good for health. As walking up hills is a physiologically vigorous physical activity and can contribute to weight control, greater neighbourhood slopes may provide a protective barrier to weight gain, and help prevent Type 2 diabetes onset. We explored whether living in 'hilly' neighbourhoods was associated with diabetes prevalence among the Australian adult population. METHODS: Participants ([greater than or equal to]25years; n=11,406) who completed the Western Australian Health and Wellbeing Surveillance System Survey (2003-2009) were asked whether or not they had medically-diagnosed diabetes. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software was used to calculate a neighbourhood mean slope score, and other built environment measures at 1600m around each participant's home. Logistic regression models were used to predict the odds of self-reported diabetes after progressive adjustment for individual measures (i.e., age, sex), socioeconomic status (i.e., education, income), built environment, destinations, nutrition, and amount of walking. RESULTS: After full adjustment, the odds of self-reported diabetes was 0.72 (95% CI 0.55-0.95) and 0.52 (95% CI 0.39-0.69) for adults living in neighbourhoods with moderate and higher levels of slope, respectively, compared with adults living in neighbourhoods with the lowest levels of slope. The odds of having diabetes was 13% lower (odds ratio 0.87; 95% CI 0.80-0.94) for each increase of one percent in mean slope. CONCLUSIONS: Living in a hilly neighbourhood may be protective of diabetes onset or this finding is spurious. Nevertheless, the results are promising and have implications for future research and the practice of flattening land in new housing developments.

Aspect-based model of user experience

Traditional HCI design and evaluation methods merely focus on functional and usability aspects of a product. Although these aspects are important, they do not guarantee product’s success, especially the consumer product. Many consumer products are now part of user’s everyday activities – that support fun, pleasure, entertainment, etc. Secondly, in today’s consumer market many of the products have become similar in terms of their technology, functionality, price and quality. In response, many companies have started designing products with added emotional and experiential values. This has challenged designer’s to explore and visualize directions in product design field that could evoke intended and desired experiences amongst its users. Subjective product qualities such as fun, pleasure, entertainment, etc. are not the part of a product, but they are better thought of as the outcome of user’s interaction with the product...

Impacts of introduced aquaculture species on markets for native marine aquaculture products : the case of edible oysters in Australia

Economic competition between introduced and native aquaculture species is of interest for industry stakeholders since increased production can affect price formation if both aquaculture species are part of the same market or even substitutes. In this study, we focus on the Australian edible oyster industry, which is dominated by two major species—the native Sydney rock oyster (grown mainly in Queensland and New South Wales) and the non-native Pacific oyster (grown mainly in South Australia and Tasmania). We examine the integration of the Australian oyster market to determine if there exists a single or several markets. Short- and long-run own, cross-price and income flexibilities of demand are estimated for both species using an inverse demand system of equations. The results suggest that the markets for the two species are integrated. We found evidence that the development of the Pacific oyster industry has had an adverse impact on Sydney rock oyster prices. However, our results show that both species are not perfect substitutes. Demand for Sydney rock oysters is relatively inelastic in the long run, yet no long-run relationships can be identified for Pacific oysters, reflecting the developing nature of this sector.