The impact of mobile phone distraction on the braking behaviour of young drivers : a hazard-based duration model

Braking is a crucial driving task with a direct relationship with crash risk, as both excess and inadequate braking can lead to collisions. The objective of this study was to compare the braking profile of young drivers distracted by mobile phone conversations to non-distracted braking. In particular, the braking behaviour of drivers in response to a pedestrian entering a zebra crossing was examined using the CARRS-Q Advanced Driving Simulator. Thirty-two licensed drivers drove the simulator in three phone conditions: baseline (no phone conversation), hands-free, and handheld. In addition to driving the simulator, each participant completed questionnaires related to driver demographics, driving history, usage of mobile phones while driving, and general mobile phone usage history. The drivers were 18–26 years old and split evenly by gender. A linear mixed model analysis of braking profiles along the roadway before the pedestrian crossing revealed comparatively increased decelerations among distracted drivers, particularly during the initial 20 kph of deceleration. Drivers’ initial 20 kph deceleration time was modelled using a parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) hazard-based duration model with a Weibull distribution with clustered heterogeneity to account for the repeated measures experiment design. Factors found to significantly influence the braking task included vehicle dynamics variables like initial speed and maximum deceleration, phone condition, and driver-specific variables such as licence type, crash involvement history, and self-reported experience of using a mobile phone whilst driving. Distracted drivers on average appear to reduce the speed of their vehicle faster and more abruptly than non-distracted drivers, exhibiting excess braking comparatively and revealing perhaps risk compensation. The braking appears to be more aggressive for distracted drivers with provisional licenses compared to drivers with open licenses. Abrupt or excessive braking by distracted drivers might pose significant safety concerns to following vehicles in a traffic stream.

Spatially varying ground motion effects on seismic response of adjacent structures considering soil-structure interaction

Spatial variation of seismic ground motions is caused by incoherence effect, wave passage, and local site conditions. This study focuses on the effects of spatial variation of earthquake ground motion on the responses of adjacent reinforced concrete (RC) frame structures. The adjacent buildings are modeled considering soil-structure interaction (SSI) so that the buildings can be interacted with each other under uniform and non-uniform ground motions. Three different site classes are used to model the soil layers of SSI system. Based on fast Fourier transformation (FFT), spatially correlated non-uniform ground motions are generated compatible with known power spectrum density function (PSDF) at different locations. Numerical analyses are carried out to investigate the displacement responses and the absolute maximum base shear forces of adjacent structures subjected to spatially varying ground motions. The results are presented in terms of related parameters affecting the structural response using three different types of soil site classes. The responses of adjacent structures have changed remarkably due to spatial variation of ground motions. The effect can be significant on rock site rather than clay site.

Soil–pile interaction of pile embedded in deep-layered marine sediment under seismic excitation

This paper investigates the soil–pile interaction of a pile embedded in a deep multi-layered soil under seismic excitation considering both kinematic and inertial interaction effects. A comprehensive three-dimensional finite element model is developed and validated using existing results in the literature. The response of the pile in the deep multi-layered soil profile is investigated with respect to pile head response, deflection modes and maximum deflections along the pile. Results show that the pile exhibits complex deflection patterns and that the pile response is influenced by the properties of both the soil profile and the seismic excitation. It is also evident that kinematic interaction effects have a greater influence on the pile response than the inertial interaction effects.

Remaining useful life prediction of rotating equipment using covariate-based hazard models : industry applications

The ability to estimate the expected Remaining Useful Life (RUL) is critical to reduce maintenance costs, operational downtime and safety hazards. In most industries, reliability analysis is based on the Reliability Centred Maintenance (RCM) and lifetime distribution models. In these models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure time data; however, statistically sufficient failure time data are often difficult to attain in practice due to the fixed time-based replacement and the small population of identical assets. When condition indicator data are available in addition to failure time data, one of the alternate approaches to the traditional reliability models is the Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM). The covariate-based hazard modelling is one of CBM approaches. There are a number of covariate-based hazard models; however, little study has been conducted to evaluate the performance of these models in asset life prediction using various condition indicators and data availability. This paper reviews two covariate-based hazard models, Proportional Hazard Model (PHM) and Proportional Covariate Model (PCM). To assess these models’ performance, the expected RUL is compared to the actual RUL. Outcomes demonstrate that both models achieve convincingly good results in RUL prediction; however, PCM has smaller absolute prediction error. In addition, PHM shows over-smoothing tendency compared to PCM in sudden changes of condition data. Moreover, the case studies show PCM is not being biased in the case of small sample size.

Motorcyclist hazard perception research: The last 10 years

Motorcycle trauma is a serious issue in Queensland and throughout Australia; the fatality rate per 100 million kilometres travelled for motorcycle riders in Australia is nearly 30 times the rate for drivers of other vehicles (Australian Transport Safety Bureau, 2002). In 2009, the then Queensland Transport (later the Department of Transport and Main Roads or TMR) appointed CARRS-Q to provide a three-year program of Road Safety Research Services for Motorcycle Rider Safety. Funding for this research originated from the Motor Accident Insurance Commission who had the uncommon foresight to fund such a comprehensive program of research.

Effect of constitutive material models on seismic response of two-story reinforced concrete frame

This paper focuses on the finite element (FE) response sensitivity and reliability analyses considering smooth constitutive material models. A reinforced concrete frame is modeled for FE sensitivity analysis followed by direct differentiation method under both static and dynamic load cases. Later, the reliability analysis is performed to predict the seismic behavior of the frame. Displacement sensitivity discontinuities are observed along the pseudo-time axis using non-smooth concrete and reinforcing steel model under quasi-static loading. However, the smooth materials show continuity in response sensitivity at elastic to plastic transition points. The normalized sensitivity results are also used to measure the relative importance of the material parameters on the structural responses. In FE reliability analysis, the influence of smoothness behavior of reinforcing steel is carefully noticed. More efficient and reasonable reliability estimation can be achieved by using smooth material model compare with bilinear material constitutive model.

Use of semi-active dampers in seismic mitigation of building structures

This research provides information for providing the required seismic mitigation in building structures through the use of semi active and passive dampers. The Magneto-Rheological (MR) semi-active damper model was developed using control algorithms and integrated into seismically excited structures as a time domain function. Linear and nonlinear structure models are evaluated in real time scenarios. Research information can be used for the design and construction of earthquake safe buildings with optimally employed MR dampers and MR-passive damper combinations.

Eye movements and road hazard detection: Effects of blur and distractors

Purpose To examine the effects of optical blur, auditory distractors and age on eye movement patterns while performing a driving hazard perception test (HPT). Methods Twenty young (mean age 27.1 ± 4.6 years) and 20 older (73.3 ± 5.7 years) drivers with normal vision completed a HPT in a repeated-measures counterbalanced design while their eye movements were recorded. Testing was performed under two visual (best-corrected vision and with +2.00DS blur) and two distractor (with and without auditory distraction) conditions. Participants were required to respond to road hazards appearing in the HPT videos of real-world driving scenes and their hazard response times were recorded. Results Blur and distractors each significantly delayed hazard response time, by 0.42 and 0.76s respectively (p<0.05). A significant interaction between age and distractors indicated that older drivers were more affected by distractors than young drivers (response with distractors delayed by 0.96 and 0.60s respectively). There were no other two- or three-way interaction effect on response time. With blur, both groups fixated significantly longer on hazards before responding compared to best-corrected vision. In the presence of distractors, both groups exhibited delayed first fixation on the hazards and spent less time fixating on the hazards. There were also significant differences in eye movement characteristics between groups, where older drivers exhibited smaller saccades, delayed first fixation on hazards, and shorter fixation duration on hazards compared to the young drivers. Conclusions Collectively, the findings of delayed hazard response times and alterations in eye movement patterns with blur and distractors provide further evidence that visual impairment and distractors are independently detrimental to driving safety given that delayed hazard response times are linked to increased crash risk.

Ship collision avoidance and COLREGS compliance using simulation-based control behavior selection with predictive hazard assessment

This paper describes a concept for a collision avoidance system for ships, which is based on model predictive control. A finite set of alternative control behaviors are generated by varying two parameters: offsets to the guidance course angle commanded to the autopilot and changes to the propulsion command ranging from nominal speed to full reverse. Using simulated predictions of the trajectories of the obstacles and ship, compliance with the Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea and collision hazards associated with each of the alternative control behaviors are evaluated on a finite prediction horizon, and the optimal control behavior is selected. Robustness to sensing error, predicted obstacle behavior, and environmental conditions can be ensured by evaluating multiple scenarios for each control behavior. The method is conceptually and computationally simple and yet quite versatile as it can account for the dynamics of the ship, the dynamics of the steering and propulsion system, forces due to wind and ocean current, and any number of obstacles. Simulations show that the method is effective and can manage complex scenarios with multiple dynamic obstacles and uncertainty associated with sensors and predictions.

Determination of preventive maintenance lead time using hybrid analysis

The time for conducting Preventive Maintenance (PM) on an asset is often determined using a predefined alarm limit based on trends of a hazard function. In this paper, the authors propose using both hazard and reliability functions to improve the accuracy of the prediction particularly when the failure characteristic of the asset whole life is modelled using different failure distributions for the different stages of the life of the asset. The proposed method is validated using simulations and case studies.

Re-invent yourself: from London intensive care nursing and the Nigerian oil fields to an an academic library in Brisbane; a career change worth making.

A complete change of career forces a seismic shift in every aspect of your life. From day one, you have to face the loss of long held beliefs, behaviours, the known world of self, and security. We came from professions that themselves are poles apart, and many of the challenges we faced entering the profession were the same: juggling full-time work, part time study, and family commitmemts, taking a pay cut, and loss of social life. But over a short period of time we both transitioned to our new profession successfully. so what make our successful transition possible?

Drivers of technology substitution : successive generations of high tech products

Principal Topic High technology consumer products such as notebooks, digital cameras and DVD players are not introduced into a vacuum. Consumer experience with related earlier generation technologies, such as PCs, film cameras and VCRs, and the installed base of these products strongly impacts the market diffusion of the new generation products. Yet technology substitution has received only sparse attention in the diffusion of innovation literature. Research for consumer durables has been dominated by studies of (first purchase) adoption (c.f. Bass 1969) which do not explicitly consider the presence of an existing product/technology. More recently, considerable attention has also been given to replacement purchases (c.f. Kamakura and Balasubramanian 1987). Only a handful of papers explicitly deal with the diffusion of technology/product substitutes (e.g. Norton and Bass, 1987: Bass and Bass, 2004). They propose diffusion-type aggregate-level sales models that are used to forecast the overall sales for successive generations. Lacking household data, these aggregate models are unable to give insights into the decisions by individual households - whether to adopt generation II, and if so, when and why. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large-scale empirical study that collects household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in comparision to traditional analysis that evaluates technology substitution as an ''adoption of innovation'' type process, we propose that from a consumer's perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing the generation I product with generation II). Based on this proposition, we develop and test a number of hypotheses. Methodology/Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear ''substitutes'' for the earlier generation, in that they have almost identical functionality. For example, successive generations of PCs Pentium I to II to III or flat screen TV substituting for colour TV. More commonly, however, the new technology (generation II) is a ''partial substitute'' for existing technology (generation I). For example, digital cameras substitute for film-based cameras in the sense that they perform the same core function of taking photographs. They have some additional attributes of easier copying and sharing of images. However, the attribute of image quality is inferior. In cases of partial substitution, some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Extensive research on innovation adoption has consistently shown consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic that drives adoption timing (Goldsmith et al. 1995; Gielens and Steenkamp 2007). Hence, we expect consumer innovativeness also to influence both additional and substitute generation II purchases. Hypothesis 1a) More innovative households will make additional generation II purchases earlier. 1 b) More innovative households will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. 1 c) Consumer innovativeness will have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases than on substitute generation II purchases. As outlined above, substitute generation II purchases act, in part like a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Prior research (Bayus 1991; Grewal et al 2004) identified product age as the most dominant factor influencing replacements. Hence, we hypothesise that: Hypothesis 2: Households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Our survey of 8,077 households investigates their adoption of two new generation products: notebooks as a technology change to PCs, and DVD players as a technology shift from VCRs. We employ Cox hazard modelling to study factors influencing the timing of a household's adoption of generation II products. We determine whether this is an additional or substitute purchase by asking whether the generation I product is still used. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. Consumer Innovativeness is measured as domain innovativeness adapted from the scales of Goldsmith and Hofacker (1991) and Flynn et al. (1996). The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include age, size and income of household, and age and education of primary decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases (exp = 1.11) and substitute purchases (exp = 1.09). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 1.0 on a 7-point innovativeness scale. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD (exp = 2.92) and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks (exp = 1.30). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 10 years in the age of the generation I product. Yet, also as hypothesised, there was no influence on additional purchases. The results lead to two key implications. First, there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. Treating these as a single process will mask the true drivers of adoption. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Hence, implications for marketers of high technology products can utilise data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.

A review on reliability models with covariates

Modern Engineering Asset Management (EAM) requires the accurate assessment of current and the prediction of future asset health condition. Suitable mathematical models that are capable of predicting Time-to-Failure (TTF) and the probability of failure in future time are essential. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of assets is estimated using failure time data. However, in most real-life situations and industry applications, the lifetime of assets is influenced by different risk factors, which are called covariates. The fundamental notion in reliability theory is the failure time of a system and its covariates. These covariates change stochastically and may influence and/or indicate the failure time. Research shows that many statistical models have been developed to estimate the hazard of assets or individuals with covariates. An extensive amount of literature on hazard models with covariates (also termed covariate models), including theory and practical applications, has emerged. This paper is a state-of-the-art review of the existing literature on these covariate models in both the reliability and biomedical fields. One of the major purposes of this expository paper is to synthesise these models from both industrial reliability and biomedical fields and then contextually group them into non-parametric and semi-parametric models. Comments on their merits and limitations are also presented. Another main purpose of this paper is to comprehensively review and summarise the current research on the development of the covariate models so as to facilitate the application of more covariate modelling techniques into prognostics and asset health management.