Structural Design under Seismic Risk Using Multiple Performance Objectives

Structural design is a decision-making process in which a wide spectrum of requirements, expectations, and concerns needs to be properly addressed. Engineering design criteria are considered together with societal and client preferences, and most of these design objectives are affected by the uncertainties surrounding a design. Therefore, realistic design frameworks must be able to handle multiple performance objectives and incorporate uncertainties from numerous sources into the process.

In this study, a multi-criteria based design framework for structural design under seismic risk is explored. The emphasis is on reliability-based performance objectives and their interaction with economic objectives. The framework has analysis, evaluation, and revision stages. In the probabilistic response analysis, seismic loading uncertainties as well as modeling uncertainties are incorporated. For evaluation, two approaches are suggested: one based on preference aggregation and the other based on socio-economics. Both implementations of the general framework are illustrated with simple but informative design examples to explore the basic features of the framework.

The first approach uses concepts similar to those found in multi-criteria decision theory, and directly combines reliability-based objectives with others. This approach is implemented in a single-stage design procedure. In the socio-economics based approach, a two-stage design procedure is recommended in which societal preferences are treated through reliability-based engineering performance measures, but emphasis is also given to economic objectives because these are especially important to the structural designer's client. A rational net asset value formulation including losses from uncertain future earthquakes is used to assess the economic performance of a design. A recently developed assembly-based vulnerability analysis is incorporated into the loss estimation.

The presented performance-based design framework allows investigation of various design issues and their impact on a structural design. It is a flexible one that readily allows incorporation of new methods and concepts in seismic hazard specification, structural analysis, and loss estimation.

Complexity of rupture propagation in large earthquakes in relation to tectonic environment

Complexity in the earthquake rupture process can result from many factors. This study investigates the origin of such complexity by examining several recent, large earthquakes in detail. In each case the local tectonic environment plays an important role in understanding the source of the complexity.

Several large shallow earthquakes (M_s > 7.0) along the Middle American Trench have similarities and differences between them that may lead to a better understanding of fracture and subduction processes. They are predominantly thrust events consistent with the known subduction of the Cocos plate beneath N. America. Two events occurring along this subduction zone close to triple junctions show considerable complexity. This may be attributable to a more heterogeneous stress environment in these regions and as such has implications for other subduction zone boundaries.

An event which looks complex but is actually rather simple is the 1978 Bermuda earthquake (M_s ~ 6). It is located predominantly in the mantle. Its mechanism is one of pure thrust faulting with a strike N 20°W and dip 42°NE. Its apparent complexity is caused by local crustal structure. This is an important event in terms of understanding and estimating seismic hazard on the eastern seaboard of N. America.

A study of several large strike-slip continental earthquakes identifies characteristics which are common to them and may be useful in determining what to expect from the next great earthquake on the San Andreas fault. The events are the 1976 Guatemala earthquake on the Motagua fault and two events on the Anatolian fault in Turkey (the 1967, Mudurnu Valley and 1976, E. Turkey events). An attempt to model the complex P-waveforms of these events results in good synthetic fits for the Guatemala and Mudurnu Valley events. However, the E. Turkey event proves to be too complex as it may have associated thrust or normal faulting. Several individual sources occurring at intervals of between 5 and 20 seconds characterize the Guatemala and Mudurnu Valley events. The maximum size of an individual source appears to be bounded at about 5 x 10²⁶ dyne-cm. A detailed source study including directivity is performed on the Guatemala event. The source time history of the Mudurnu Valley event illustrates its significance in modeling strong ground motion in the near field. The complex source time series of the 1967 event produces amplitudes greater by a factor of 2.5 than a uniform model scaled to the same size for a station 20 km from the fault.

Three large and important earthquakes demonstrate an important type of complexity --- multiple-fault complexity. The first, the 1976 Philippine earthquake, an oblique thrust event, represents the first seismological evidence for a northeast dipping subduction zone beneath the island of Mindanao. A large event, following the mainshock by 12 hours, occurred outside the aftershock area and apparently resulted from motion on a subsidiary fault since the event had a strike-slip mechanism.

An aftershock of the great 1960 Chilean earthquake on June 6, 1960, proved to be an interesting discovery. It appears to be a large strike-slip event at the main rupture's southern boundary. It most likely occurred on the landward extension of the Chile Rise transform fault, in the subducting plate. The results for this event suggest that a small event triggered a series of slow events; the duration of the whole sequence being longer than 1 hour. This is indeed a "slow earthquake".

Perhaps one of the most complex of events is the recent Tangshan, China event. It began as a large strike-slip event. Within several seconds of the mainshock it may have triggered thrust faulting to the south of the epicenter. There is no doubt, however, that it triggered a large oblique normal event to the northeast, 15 hours after the mainshock. This event certainly contributed to the great loss of life-sustained as a result of the Tangshan earthquake sequence.

What has been learned from these studies has been applied to predict what one might expect from the next great earthquake on the San Andreas. The expectation from this study is that such an event would be a large complex event, not unlike, but perhaps larger than, the Guatemala or Mudurnu Valley events. That is to say, it will most likely consist of a series of individual events in sequence. It is also quite possible that the event could trigger associated faulting on neighboring fault systems such as those occurring in the Transverse Ranges. This has important bearing on the earthquake hazard estimation for the region.

Toppling Analysis of Precariously Balanced Rocks under Earthquake Excitation

Toppling analysis of a precariously balanced rock (PBR) can provide insights into the nature of ground motion that has not occurred at that location in the past and, by extension, realistic constraints on peak ground motions for use in engineering design. Earlier approaches have targeted simplistic 2-D models of the rock or modeled the rock-pedestal contact using spring-damper assemblies that require re-calibration for each rock. These analyses also assume that the rock does not slide on the pedestal. Here, a method to model PBRs in three dimensions is presented. The 3-D model is created from a point cloud of the rock, the pedestal, and their interface, obtained using Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS). The dynamic response of the model under earthquake excitation is simulated using a rigid body dynamics algorithm. The veracity of this approach is demonstrated by comparisons against data from shake table experiments. Fragility maps for toppling probability of the Echo Cliff PBR and the Pacifico PBR as a function of various ground motion parameters, rock-pedestal interface friction coefficient, and excitation direction are presented. The seismic hazard at these PBR locations is estimated using these maps. Additionally, these maps are used to assess whether the synthetic ground motions at these locations resulting from scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault are realistic (toppling would indicate that the ground motions are unrealistically high).

Seismic structure above and below the core-mantle boundary

Seismic structure above and below the core-mantle boundary (CMB) has been studied through use of travel time and waveform analyses of several different seismic wave groups. Anomalous systematic trends in observables document mantle heterogeneity on both large and small scales. Analog and digital data has been utilized, and in many cases the analog data has been optically scanned and digitized prior to analysis.

Differential travel times of S - SKS are shown to be an excellent diagnostic of anomalous lower mantle shear velocity (V s) structure. Wavepath geometries beneath the central Pacific exhibit large S- SKS travel time residuals (up to 10 sec), and are consistent with a large scale 0(1000 km) slower than average V_s region (≥3%). S - SKS times for paths traversing this region exhibit smaller scale patterns and trends 0(100 km) indicating V_s perturbations on many scale lengths. These times are compared to predictions of three tomographically derived aspherical models: MDLSH of Tanimoto [1990], model SH12_WM13 of Suet al. [1992], and model SH.10c.17 of Masters et al. [1992]. Qualitative agreement between the tomographic model predictions and observations is encouraging, varying from fair to good. However, inconsistencies are present and suggest anomalies in the lower mantle of scale length smaller than the present 2000+ km scale resolution of tomographic models. 2-D wave propagation experiments show the importance of inhomogeneous raypaths when considering lateral heterogeneities in the lowermost mantle.

A dataset of waveforms and differential travel times of S, ScS, and the arrival from the D" layer, Scd, provides evidence for a laterally varying V_s velocity discontinuity at the base of the mantle. Two different localized D" regions beneath the central Pacific have been investigated. Predictions from a model having a V_s discontinuity 180 km above the CMB agree well with observations for an eastern mid-Pacific CMB region. This thickness differs from V_s discontinuity thicknesses found in other regions, such as a localized region beneath the western Pacific, which average near 280 km. The "sharpness" of the V_s jump at the top of D", i.e., the depth range over which the V_s increase occurs, is not resolved by our data, and our data can in fact may be modeled equally well by a lower mantle with the increase in V_s at the top of D" occurring over a 100 krn depth range. It is difficult at present to correlate D" thicknesses from this study to overall lower mantle heterogeneity, due to uncertainties in the 3-D models, as well as poor coverage in maps of D" discontinuity thicknesses.

P-wave velocity structure (V_p) at the base of the mantle is explored using the seismic phases SKS and SPdKS. SPdKS is formed when SKS waves at distances around 107° are incident upon the CMB with a slowness that allows for coupling with diffracted P-waves at the base of the mantle. The P-wave diffraction occurs at both the SKS entrance and exit locations of the outer core. SP_dKS arrives slightly later in time than SKS, having a wave path through the mantle and core very close to SKS. The difference time between SKS and SP_dKS strongly depends on V_p at the base of the mantle near SK Score entrance and exit points. Observations from deep focus Fiji-Tonga events recorded by North American stations, and South American events recorded by European and Eurasian stations exhibit anomalously large SP_dKS - SKS difference times. SKS and the later arriving SP_dKS phase are separated by several seconds more than predictions made by 1-D reference models, such as the global average PREM [Dziewonski and Anderson, 1981] model. Models having a pronounced low-velocity zone (5%) in V_p in the bottom 50-100 km of the mantle predict the size of the observed SP_dK S-SKS anomalies. Raypath perturbations from lower mantle V_s structure may also be contributing to the observed anomalies.

Outer core structure is investigated using the family of SmKS (m=2,3,4) seismic waves. SmKS are waves that travel as S-waves in the mantle, P-waves in the core, and reflect (m-1) times on the underside of the CMB, and are well-suited for constraining outermost core V_p structure. This is due to closeness of the mantle paths and also the shallow depth range these waves travel in the outermost core. S3KS - S2KS and S4KS - S3KS differential travel times were measured using the cross-correlation method and compared to those from reflectivity synthetics created from core models of past studies. High quality recordings from a deep focus Java Sea event which sample the outer core beneath the northern Pacific, the Arctic, and northwestern North America (spanning 1/8th of the core's surface area), have SmKS wavepaths that traverse regions where lower mantle heterogeneity is pre- dieted small, and are well-modeled by the PREM core model, with possibly a small V_p decrease (1.5%) in the outermost 50 km of the core. Such a reduction implies chemical stratification in this 50 km zone, though this model feature is not uniquely resolved. Data having wave paths through areas of known D" heterogeneity (±2% and greater), such as the source-side of SmKS lower mantle paths from Fiji-Tonga to Eurasia and Africa, exhibit systematic SmKS differential time anomalies of up to several seconds. 2-D wave propagation experiments demonstrate how large scale lower mantle velocity perturbations can explain long wavelength behavior of such anomalous SmKS times. When improperly accounted for, lower mantle heterogeneity maps directly into core structure. Raypaths departing from homogeneity play an important role in producing SmKS anomalies. The existence of outermost core heterogeneity is difficult to resolve at present due to uncertainties in global lower mantle structure. Resolving a one-dimensional chemically stratified outermost core also remains difficult due to the same uncertainties. Restricting study to higher multiples of SmKS (m=2,3,4) can help reduce the affect of mantle heterogeneity due to the closeness of the mantle legs of the wavepaths. SmKS waves are ideal in providing additional information on the details of lower mantle heterogeneity.

Structure of the earth's core and lowermost mantle from seismic PKP waves

This thesis addresses the fine structure, both radial and lateral, of compressional wave velocity and attenuation of the Earth's core and the lowermost mantle using waveforms, differential travel times and amplitudes of PKP waves, which penetrate the Earth's core.

The structure near the inner core boundary (ICB) is studied by analyzing waveforms of a regional sample. The waveform modeling approach is demonstrated to be an effective tool for constrainning the ICB structure. The best model features a sharp velocity jump of 0.78km/s at the ICB and a low velocity gradient at the lowermost outer core (indicating possible inhomogeneity) and high attenuation at the top of the inner core.

A spherically symmetric P-wave model of the core, is proposed from PKP differential times, waveforms and amplitudes. The ICB remains sharp with a velocity jump of 0. 78km/ s. A very low velocity gradient at the base of the fluid core is demonstrated to be a robust feature, indicating inhomogeneity is practically inevitable. The model also indicates that the attenuation in the inner core decreases with depth. The velocity at D" is smaller than PREM.

The inner core is confirmed to be very anisotropic, possessing a cylindrical symmetry around the Earth spin axis with the N-S direction 3% faster than the E-W direction. All of the N-S rays through the inner core were found to be faster than the E-W rays by 1.5 to 3.5s. Exhaustive data selection and efforts in insolating contributions from the region above ensure that this is an inner core feature.

The anisotropy at the very top of the inner core is found to be distinctly different from the deeper part. The top 60km of the inner core is not anisotropic. From 60km to 150km, there appears to be a transition from isotropy to anisotropy.

PKP differential travel times are used to study the P velocity structure in D". Systematic regional variations of up to 2s in AB-DF times were observed, attributed primarily to heterogeneities in the lower 500km of the mantle. However, direct comparisons with tomographic models are not successful.

Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.

Effect of nonuniform seismic input on arch dams

Standard earthquake analyses of civil engineering structures use uniform ground motions even though considerable variations in both amplitude and phase can occur along the foundation interface for long-span bridges and large dams. The objective of this thesis is to quantify the effect that these nonuniformities have on the structural response.

The nonuniform, free-field motions of the foundation interface are assumed to be caused by incident plane body waves. The medium in which these waves travel is a linear, elastic half-space containing a canyon of uniform cross section in which the structure is placed. The solutions for the free-field motions that are due to incident SH, P and SV waves are calculated using the boundary element method.

An analysis of Pacoima (arch) dam located near Los Angeles, California, is performed for both uniform and nonuniform excitations. The important effect of nonuniformities in the free-field motions, sometimes leading to a decrease in the dam response and sometimes to an increase, is quantified.

Characterization of diverse megathrust fault behavior related to seismic supercycles, Mentawai Islands, Sumatra

Long paleoseismic histories are necessary for understanding the full range of behavior of faults, as the most destructive events often have recurrence intervals longer than local recorded history. The Sunda megathrust, the interface along which the Australian plate subducts beneath Southeast Asia, provides an ideal natural laboratory for determining a detailed paleoseismic history over many seismic cycles. The outer-arc islands above the seismogenic portion of the megathrust cyclically rise and subside in response to processes on the underlying megathrust, providing uncommonly good illumination of megathrust behavior. Furthermore, the growth histories of coral microatolls, which record tectonic uplift and subsidence via relative sea level, can be used to investigate the detailed coseismic and interseismic deformation patterns. One particularly interesting area is the Mentawai segment of the megathrust, which has been shown to characteristically fail in a series of ruptures over decades, rather than a single end-to-end rupture. This behavior has been termed a seismic “supercycle.” Prior to the current rupture sequence, which began in 2007, the segment previously ruptured during the 14th century, the late 16th to late 17th century, and most recently during historical earthquakes in 1797 and 1833. In this study, we examine each of these previous supercycles in turn.

First, we expand upon previous analysis of the 1797–1833 rupture sequence with a comprehensive review of previously published coral microatoll data and the addition of a significant amount of new data. We present detailed maps of coseismic uplift during the two great earthquakes and of interseismic deformation during the periods 1755–1833 and 1950–1997 and models of the corresponding slip and coupling on the underlying megathrust. We derive magnitudes of Mw 8.7–9.0 for the two historical earthquakes, and determine that the 1797 earthquake fundamentally changed the state of coupling on the fault for decades afterward. We conclude that while major earthquakes generally do not involve rupture of the entire Mentawai segment, they undoubtedly influence the progression of subsequent ruptures, even beyond their own rupture area. This concept is of vital importance for monitoring and forecasting the progression of the modern rupture sequence.

Turning our attention to the 14th century, we present evidence of a shallow slip event in approximately A.D. 1314, which preceded the “conventional” megathrust rupture sequence. We calculate a suite of slip models, slightly deeper and/or larger than the 2010 Pagai Islands earthquake, that are consistent with the large amount of subsidence recorded at our study site. Sea-level records from older coral microatolls suggest that these events occur at least once every millennium, but likely far less frequently than their great downdip neighbors. The revelation that shallow slip events are important contributors to the seismic cycle of the Mentawai segment further complicates our understanding of this subduction megathrust and our assessment of the region’s exposure to seismic and tsunami hazards.

Finally, we present an outline of the complex intervening rupture sequence that took place in the 16th and 17th centuries, which involved at least five distinct uplift events. We conclude that each of the supercycles had unique features, and all of the types of fault behavior we observe are consistent with highly heterogeneous frictional properties of the megathrust beneath the south-central Mentawai Islands. We conclude that the heterogeneous distribution of asperities produces terminations and overlap zones between fault ruptures, resulting in the seismic “supercycle” phenomenon.

Aseismic deformation in subduction megathrusts : central Andes and north-east Japan

We aim to characterize fault slip behavior during all stages of the seismic cycle in subduction megathrust environments with the eventual goal of understanding temporal and spatial variations of fault zone rheology, and to infer possible causal relationships between inter-, co- and post-seismic slip, as well as implications for earthquake and tsunami hazard. In particular we focus on analyzing aseismic deformation occurring during inter-seismic and post-seismic periods of the seismic cycle. We approach the problem using both Bayesian and optimization techniques. The Bayesian approach allows us to completely characterize the model parameter space by searching a posteriori estimates of the range of allowable models, to easily implement any kind of physically plausible a priori information and to perform the inversion without regularization other than that imposed by the parameterization of the model. However, the Bayesian approach computational expensive and not currently viable for quick response scenarios. Therefore, we also pursue improvements in the optimization inference scheme. We present a novel, robust and yet simple regularization technique that allows us to infer robust and somewhat more detailed models of slip on faults. We apply such methodologies, using simple quasi-static elastic models, to perform studies of inter- seismic deformation in the Central Andes subduction zone, and post-seismic deformation induced by the occurrence of the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan. For the Central Andes, we present estimates of apparent coupling probability of the subduction interface and analyze its relationship to past earthquakes in the region. For Japan, we infer high spatial variability in material properties of the megathrust offshore Tohoku. We discuss the potential for a large earthquake just south of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake where our inferences suggest dominantly aseismic behavior.

Cloud computing services for seismic networks

This thesis describes a compositional framework for developing situation awareness applications: applications that provide ongoing information about a user's changing environment. The thesis describes how the framework is used to develop a situation awareness application for earthquakes. The applications are implemented as Cloud computing services connected to sensors and actuators. The architecture and design of the Cloud services are described and measurements of performance metrics are provided. The thesis includes results of experiments on earthquake monitoring conducted over a year. The applications developed by the framework are (1) the CSN --- the Community Seismic Network --- which uses relatively low-cost sensors deployed by members of the community, and (2) SAF --- the Situation Awareness Framework --- which integrates data from multiple sources, including the CSN, CISN --- the California Integrated Seismic Network, a network consisting of high-quality seismometers deployed carefully by professionals in the CISN organization and spread across Southern California --- and prototypes of multi-sensor platforms that include carbon monoxide, methane, dust and radiation sensors.

Exploiting seismic waveforms of ambient noise and earthquakes

In this thesis, I apply detailed waveform modeling to study noise correlations in different environments, and earthquake waveforms for source parameters and velocity structure.

Green's functions from ambient noise correlations have primarily been used for travel-time measurement. In Part I of this thesis, by detailed waveform modeling of noise correlation functions, I retrieve both surface waves and crustal body waves from noise, and use them in improving earthquake centroid locations and regional crustal structures. I also present examples in which the noise correlations do not yield Green's functions, yet the results are still interesting and useful after case-by-case analyses, including non-uniform distribution of noise sources, spurious velocity changes, and noise correlations on the Amery Ice Shelf.

In Part II of this thesis, I study teleseismic body waves of earthquakes for source parameters or near-source structure. With the dense modern global network and improved methodologies, I obtain high-resolution earthquake locations, focal mechanisms and rupture processes, which provide critical insights to earthquake faulting processes in shallow and deep parts of subduction zones. Waveform modeling of relatively simple subduction zone events also displays new constraints on the structure of subducted slabs.

In summary, behind my approaches to the relatively independent problems, the philosophy is to bring observational insights from seismic waveforms in critical and simple ways.

Methods of multiparameter inversion of seismic data using the acoustic and elastic born approximations

This thesis presents two different forms of the Born approximations for acoustic and elastic wavefields and discusses their application to the inversion of seismic data. The Born approximation is valid for small amplitude heterogeneities superimposed over a slowly varying background. The first method is related to frequency-wavenumber migration methods. It is shown to properly recover two independent acoustic parameters within the bandpass of the source time function of the experiment for contrasts of about 5 percent from data generated using an exact theory for flat interfaces. The independent determination of two parameters is shown to depend on the angle coverage of the medium. For surface data, the impedance profile is well recovered.

The second method explored is mathematically similar to iterative tomographic methods recently introduced in the geophysical literature. Its basis is an integral relation between the scattered wavefield and the medium parameters obtained after applying a far-field approximation to the first-order Born approximation. The Davidon-Fletcher-Powell algorithm is used since it converges faster than the steepest descent method. It consists essentially of successive backprojections of the recorded wavefield, with angular and propagation weighing coefficients for density and bulk modulus. After each backprojection, the forward problem is computed and the residual evaluated. Each backprojection is similar to a before-stack Kirchhoff migration and is therefore readily applicable to seismic data. Several examples of reconstruction for simple point scatterer models are performed. Recovery of the amplitudes of the anomalies are improved with successive iterations. Iterations also improve the sharpness of the images.

The elastic Born approximation, with the addition of a far-field approximation is shown to correspond physically to a sum of WKBJ-asymptotic scattered rays. Four types of scattered rays enter in the sum, corresponding to P-P, P-S, S-P and S-S pairs of incident-scattered rays. Incident rays propagate in the background medium, interacting only once with the scatterers. Scattered rays propagate as if in the background medium, with no interaction with the scatterers. An example of P-wave impedance inversion is performed on a VSP data set consisting of three offsets recorded in two wells.

Seismic reflection experiments imaging the physical nature of crustal structures in southern California

Seismic reflection methods have been extensively used to probe the Earth's crust and suggest the nature of its formative processes. The analysis of multi-offset seismic reflection data extends the technique from a reconnaissance method to a powerful scientific tool that can be applied to test specific hypotheses. The treatment of reflections at multiple offsets becomes tractable if the assumptions of high-frequency rays are valid for the problem being considered. Their validity can be tested by applying the methods of analysis to full wave synthetics.

Three studies illustrate the application of these principles to investigations of the nature of the crust in southern California. A survey shot by the COCORP consortium in 1977 across the San Andreas fault near Parkfield revealed events in the record sections whose arrival time decreased with offset. The reflectors generating these events are imaged using a multi-offset three-dimensional Kirchhoff migration. Migrations of full wave acoustic synthetics having the same limitations in geometric coverage as the field survey demonstrate the utility of this back projection process for imaging. The migrated depth sections show the locations of the major physical boundaries of the San Andreas fault zone. The zone is bounded on the southwest by a near-vertical fault juxtaposing a Tertiary sedimentary section against uplifted crystalline rocks of the fault zone block. On the northeast, the fault zone is bounded by a fault dipping into the San Andreas, which includes slices of serpentinized ultramafics, intersecting it at 3 km depth. These interpretations can be made despite complications introduced by lateral heterogeneities.

In 1985 the Calcrust consortium designed a survey in the eastern Mojave desert to image structures in both the shallow and the deep crust. Preliminary field experiments showed that the major geophysical acquisition problem to be solved was the poor penetration of seismic energy through a low-velocity surface layer. Its effects could be mitigated through special acquisition and processing techniques. Data obtained from industry showed that quality data could be obtained from areas having a deeper, older sedimentary cover, causing a re-definition of the geologic objectives. Long offset stationary arrays were designed to provide reversed, wider angle coverage of the deep crust over parts of the survey. The preliminary field tests and constant monitoring of data quality and parameter adjustment allowed 108 km of excellent crustal data to be obtained.

This dataset, along with two others from the central and western Mojave, was used to constrain rock properties and the physical condition of the crust. The multi-offset analysis proceeded in two steps. First, an increase in reflection peak frequency with offset is indicative of a thinly layered reflector. The thickness and velocity contrast of the layering can be calculated from the spectral dispersion, to discriminate between structures resulting from broad scale or local effects. Second, the amplitude effects at different offsets of P-P scattering from weak elastic heterogeneities indicate whether the signs of the changes in density, rigidity, and Lame's parameter at the reflector agree or are opposed. The effects of reflection generation and propagation in a heterogeneous, anisotropic crust were contained by the design of the experiment and the simplicity of the observed amplitude and frequency trends. Multi-offset spectra and amplitude trend stacks of the three Mojave Desert datasets suggest that the most reflective structures in the middle crust are strong Poisson's ratio (σ) contrasts. Porous zones or the juxtaposition of units of mutually distant origin are indicated. Heterogeneities in σ increase towards the top of a basal crustal zone at ~22 km depth. The transition to the basal zone and to the mantle include increases in σ. The Moho itself includes ~400 m layering having a velocity higher than that of the uppermost mantle. The Moho maintains the same configuration across the Mojave despite 5 km of crustal thinning near the Colorado River. This indicates that Miocene extension there either thinned just the basal zone, or that the basal zone developed regionally after the extensional event.

Travel time tomographic studies of seismic structures around subducted lithospheric slabs

The nature of the subducted lithospheric slab is investigated seismologically by tomographic inversions of ISC residual travel times. The slab, in which nearly all deep earthquakes occur, is fast in the seismic images because it is much cooler than the ambient mantle. High resolution three-dimensional P and S wave models in the NW Pacific are obtained using regional data, while inversion for the SW Pacific slabs includes teleseismic arrivals. Resolution and noise estimations show the models are generally well-resolved.

The slab anomalies in these models, as inferred from the seismicity, are generally coherent in the upper mantle and become contorted and decrease in amplitude with depth. Fast slabs are surrounded by slow regions shallower than 350 km depth. Slab fingering, including segmentation and spreading, is indicated near the bottom of the upper mantle. The fast anomalies associated with the Japan, Izu-Bonin, Mariana and Kermadec subduction zones tend to flatten to sub-horizontal at depth, while downward spreading may occur under parts of the Mariana and Kuril arcs. The Tonga slab appears to end around 550 km depth, but is underlain by a fast band at 750-1000 km depths.

The NW Pacific model combined with the Clayton-Comer mantle model predicts many observed residual sphere patterns. The predictions indicate that the near-source anomalies affect the residual spheres less than the teleseismic contributions. The teleseismic contributions may be removed either by using a mantle model, or using teleseismic station averages of residuals from only regional events. The slab-like fast bands in the corrected residual spheres are are consistent with seismicity trends under the Mariana Tzu-Bonin and Japan trenches, but are inconsistent for the Kuril events.

The comparison of the tomographic models with earthquake focal mechanisms shows that deep compression axes and fast velocity slab anomalies are in consistent alignment, even when the slab is contorted or flattened. Abnormal stress patterns are seen at major junctions of the arcs. The depth boundary between tension and compression in the central parts of these arcs appears to depend on the dip and topology of the slab.

On the solution of first excursion problems by simulation with applications to probabilistic seismic performance assessment

In a probabilistic assessment of the performance of structures subjected to uncertain environmental loads such as earthquakes, an important problem is to determine the probability that the structural response exceeds some specified limits within a given duration of interest. This problem is known as the first excursion problem, and it has been a challenging problem in the theory of stochastic dynamics and reliability analysis. In spite of the enormous amount of attention the problem has received, there is no procedure available for its general solution, especially for engineering problems of interest where the complexity of the system is large and the failure probability is small.

The application of simulation methods to solving the first excursion problem is investigated in this dissertation, with the objective of assessing the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitations modeled by stochastic processes. From a simulation perspective, the major difficulty in the first excursion problem comes from the large number of uncertain parameters often encountered in the stochastic description of the excitation. Existing simulation tools are examined, with special regard to their applicability in problems with a large number of uncertain parameters. Two efficient simulation methods are developed to solve the first excursion problem. The first method is developed specifically for linear dynamical systems, and it is found to be extremely efficient compared to existing techniques. The second method is more robust to the type of problem, and it is applicable to general dynamical systems. It is efficient for estimating small failure probabilities because the computational effort grows at a much slower rate with decreasing failure probability than standard Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation methods are applied to assess the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitation. Failure analysis is also carried out using the samples generated during simulation, which provide insight into the probable scenarios that will occur given that a structure fails.