Review : "Everynight...Everynight" -- Alkinos Tsilimidos

Synopsis and review of the Australian prison film Everynight...Everynight (Alkinos Tsilimidos, 1994). Includes cast and credits. An opening title states that Everynight… Everynight is a true story, but due to “legal implications”, the characters have been fictionalised. Another title dedicates the film to the memory of Christopher Dale Flannery, an infamous underworld figure known as ‘Mr Rent-a-Kill’ who spent time in H Division in the 1970s and 1980s. Originally from Melbourne, Flannery was a major figure in the Sydney ‘gang wars’ of 1984-85, dramatised in the television series Underbelly: A Tale of Two Cities (2009). He disappeared in mid-1985; there are several conflicting stories about his fate. The character of Bryant appears to have been based on Stan Taylor who had spent time in H Division with Flannery. Taylor was sentenced to life imprisonment without parole in 1988 for the 1986 bombing of police headquarters in Melbourne...

Climate variability over the last 35,000 years recorded in marine and terrestrial archives in the Australian region : an OZ-INTIMATE compilation

The Australian region spans some 60° of latitude and 50° of longitude and displays considerable regional climate variability both today and during the Late Quaternary. A synthesis of marine and terrestrial climate records, combining findings from the Southern Ocean, temperate, tropical and arid zones, identifies a complex response of climate proxies to a background of changing boundary conditions over the last 35,000 years. Climate drivers include the seasonal timing of insolation, greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere, sea level rise and ocean and atmospheric circulation changes. Our compilation finds few climatic events that could be used to construct a climate event stratigraphy for the entire region, limiting the usefulness of this approach. Instead we have taken a spatial approach, looking to discern the patterns of change across the continent. The data identify the clearest and most synchronous climatic response at the time of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 ± 3 ka), with unambiguous cooling recorded in the ocean, and evidence of glaciation in the highlands of tropical New Guinea, southeast Australia and Tasmania. Many terrestrial records suggest drier conditions, but with the timing of inferred snowmelt, and changes to the rainfall/runoff relationships, driving higher river discharge at the LGM. In contrast, the deglaciation is a time of considerable south-east to north-west variation across the region. Warming was underway in all regions by 17 ka. Post-glacial sea level rise and its associated regional impacts have played an important role in determining the magnitude and timing of climate response in the north-west of the continent in contrast to the southern latitudes. No evidence for cooling during the Younger Dryas chronozone is evident in the region, but the Antarctic cold reversal clearly occurs south of Australia. The Holocene period is a time of considerable climate variability associated with an intense monsoon in the tropics early in the Holocene, giving way to a weakened monsoon and an increasingly El Niño-dominated ENSO to the present. The influence of ENSO is evident throughout the southeast of Australia, but not the southwest. This climate history provides a template from which to assess the regionality of climate events across Australia and make comparisons beyond our region. The data identify the clearest and most synchronous climatic response at the time of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 ± 3 ka), with unambiguous cooling recorded in the ocean, and evidence of glaciation in the highlands of tropical New Guinea, southeast Australia and Tasmania. Many terrestrial records suggest drier conditions, but with the timing of inferred snowmelt, and changes to the rainfall/runoff relationships, driving higher river discharge at the LGM. In contrast, the deglaciation is a time of considerable south-east to north-west variation across the region. Warming was underway in all regions by 17 ka. Post-glacial sea level rise and its associated regional impacts have played an important role in determining the magnitude and timing of climate response in the north-west of the continent in contrast to the southern latitudes. No evidence for cooling during the Younger Dryas chronozone is evident in the region, but the Antarctic cold reversal clearly occurs south of Australia. The Holocene period is a time of considerable climate variability associated with an intense monsoon in the tropics early in the Holocene, giving way to a weakened monsoon and an increasingly El Niño-dominated ENSO to the present. The influence of ENSO is evident throughout the southeast of Australia, but not the southwest. This climate history provides a template from which to assess the regionality of climate events across Australia and make comparisons beyond our region.

A closed-form approximation for pricing temperature-based weather derivatives

This paper develops analytical distributions of temperature indices on which temperature derivatives are written. If the deviations of daily temperatures from their expected values are modelled as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with timevarying variance, then the distributions of the temperature index on which the derivative is written is the sum of truncated, correlated Gaussian deviates. The key result of this paper is to provide an analytical approximation to the distribution of this sum, thus allowing the accurate computation of payoffs without the need for any simulation. A data set comprising average daily temperature spanning over a hundred years for four Australian cities is used to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach for estimating the payoffs to temperature derivatives. It is demonstrated that expected payoffs computed directly from historical records are a particularly poor approach to the problem when there are trends in underlying average daily temperature. It is shown that the proposed analytical approach is superior to historical pricing.

Econometric Modelling with Time Series : Specification, Estimation and Testing

This book provides a general framework for specifying, estimating, and testing time series econometric models. Special emphasis is given to estimation by maximum likelihood, but other methods are also discussed, including quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, generalized method of moments estimation, nonparametric estimation, and estimation by simulation. An important advantage of adopting the principle of maximum likelihood as the unifying framework for the book is that many of the estimators and test statistics proposed in econometrics can be derived within a likelihood framework, thereby providing a coherent vehicle for understanding their properties and interrelationships. In contrast to many existing econometric textbooks, which deal mainly with the theoretical properties of estimators and test statistics through a theorem-proof presentation, this book squarely addresses implementation to provide direct conduits between the theory and applied work.

Get real : the development, implementation and evaluation of an intervention for primary aged children with High Functioning Autism

Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder experience difficulty in communication and in understanding the social world which can have negative consequences for their relationships, in managing emotions, and generally dealing with the challenges of everyday life. This thesis examines the effectiveness of the Active and Reflective components of the Get REAL program through the assessment of the detailed coding of video-recorded observations and longitudinal quantitative analysis. The aim of Get REAL is to increase the social, emotional, and cognitive learning of children with High Functioning Autism (HFA). Get REAL is a group program designed specifically for use in inclusive primary school settings. The Get REAL program was designed in response to the mixed success of generalisation of learning to new contexts of existing social skills programs. The theoretical foundation of Get REAL is based upon pedagogical theory and learning theory to facilitate transfer of learning, combined with experiential, individualised, evaluative and organisational approaches. This thesis is by publication and consists of four refereed journal papers; 1 accepted for publication and 3 that are under review. Paper 1 describes the development and theoretical basis of the Get REAL program and provides detail of the program structure and learning cycle. The focus of Paper 1 reflects the first question of interest in the thesis which is about the extent to which learning derived from participation in the program can be generalised to other contexts. Participants are 16 children with HFA ranging in age from 8-13 years. Results provided support for the generalisability of learning from Get REAL to home and school evidenced by parent and teacher data collected pre and post participation in Get REAL. Following establishment of the generalisation of learning from Get REAL, Papers 2 and 3 focus on the Active and Reflective components of the program in order to examine how individual and group learning takes place. Participants (N = 12) in the program are video-taped during the Active and Reflective Sessions. Using identical coding protocols of video data, improvements in prosocial behaviour and diminishing of inappropriate behaviours were apparent with the exception of perspective taking. Data also revealed that 2 of the participants had atypical trajectories. An in-depth case study analysis was then conducted with these 2 participants in Paper 4. Data included reports from health care and education professionals within the school and externally (e.g., paediatrician) and identified the multi-faceted nature of care needed for children with comorbid diagnoses and extremely challenging family circumstances as a complex task to effect change. Results of this research support the effectiveness of the Get REAL program in promoting pro social behaviours such as improvements in engaging with others and emotional regulation, and in diminishing unwanted behaviours such as conduct problems. Further, the gains made by the participating children were found to be generalisable beyond Get REAL to home and other school settings. The research contained in the thesis adds to current knowledge about how learning can take place for children with HFA. Results show that an experiential learning framework with a focus on social cognition, together with explicit teaching, scaffolded with video feedback, are key ingredients for the generalisation of social learning to broader contexts.

Semi-parametric forecasting of spikes in electricity prices

The occurrence of extreme movements in the spot price of electricity represents a significant source of risk to retailers. A range of approaches have been considered with respect to modelling electricity prices; these models, however, have relied on time-series approaches, which typically use restrictive decay schemes placing greater weight on more recent observations. This study develops an alternative, semi-parametric method for forecasting, which uses state-dependent weights derived from a kernel function. The forecasts that are obtained using this method are accurate and therefore potentially useful to electricity retailers in terms of risk management.

Settling the Pop Score : Pop Texts and Identity Politics [Book Review]

Review(s) of: Settling the Pop Score: Pop Texts and Identity Politics, Stan Hawkins, Aldershot, Hants. : Ashgate, 2002, ISBN 0 7546 0352 0; pb, 234pp, ill, music exx, bibl. , discog. , index. The scholarly study of popular music has its origins in sociology and cultural studies, disciplinary areas in which musical meaning is often attributed to aspects of economical and sociological function. Against this tradition, recent writers have offered what is now referred to as ‘popular musicology’: a method or approach that tends towards a specific engagement with ‘pop texts’ on aesthetic, and perhaps even ‘musical’ terms. Stan Hawkins uses the term popular musicology ‘at his own peril,’ clearly recognising the implicit scholarly danger in his approach, whereby ‘formalist questions of musical analysis’ are dealt with ‘alongside the more intertextual discursive theorisations of musical expression’ (p. xii). In other words, popular musicologists dare to tread that fine line between text and context. As editor of the journal Popular Musicology Online, Hawkins is a leading advocate of this practice, specifically in the application of music-analytical techniques to popular music. His methodology attests to the influence of other leading figures in the area, notably Richard Middleton, Allan F. Moore and Derek Scott (general editor of the Ashgate Popular and Folk Music Series in which this book is published).

Internet teaching foundation for the Remote Sensing Core Curriculum program

The Remote Sensing Core Curriculum (RSCC) was initiated in 1993 to meet the demands for a college-level set of resources to enhance the quality of education across national and international campuses. The American Society of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing adopted the RSCC in 1996 to sustain support of this educational initiative for its membership and collegiate community. A series of volumes, containing lectures, exercises, and data, is being created by expert contributors to address the different technical fields of remote sensing. The RSCC program is designed to operate on the Internet taking full advantage of the World Wide Web (WWW) technology for distance learning. The issues of curriculum development related to the educational setting, with demands on faculty, students, and facilities, is considered to understand the new paradigms for WWW-influenced computer-aided learning. The WWW is shown to be especially appropriate for facilitating remote sensing education with requirements for addressing image data sets and multimedia learning tools. The RSCC is located at http://www.umbc.edu/rscc. The Remote Sensing Core Curriculum (RSCC) was initiated in 1993 to meet the demands for a college-level set of resources to enhance the quality of education across national and international campuses. The American Society of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing adopted the RSCC in 1996 to sustain support of this educational initiative for its membership and collegiate community. A series of volumes, containing lectures, exercises, and data, is being created by expert contributors to address the different technical fields of remote sensing. The RSCC program is designed to operate on the Internet taking full advantage of the World Wide Web (WWW) technology for distance learning. The issues of curriculum development related to the educational setting, with demands on faculty, students, and facilities, is considered to understand the new paradigms for WWW-influenced computer-aided learning. The WWW is shown to be especially appropriate for facilitating remote sensing education with requirements for addressing image data sets and multimedia learning tools. The RSCC is located at http://www.umbc.edu/rscc.

Selecting volatility forecasting models for portfolio allocation purposes

Techniques for evaluating and selecting multivariate volatility forecasts are not yet understood as well as their univariate counterparts. This paper considers the ability of different loss functions to discriminate between a set of competing forecasting models which are subsequently applied in a portfolio allocation context. It is found that a likelihood-based loss function outperforms its competitors, including those based on the given portfolio application. This result indicates that considering the particular application of forecasts is not necessarily the most effective basis on which to select models.

Recovering Functional Integrity in Pastures Dominated by an Invasive Grass Species

Exotic grasses have been introduced in countries worldwide for pasture improvement, soil stabilisation and ornamental purposes. Some of these introductions have proven successful, but many have not (Cook & Dias 2006). In Australia, the Commonwealth Plant Introduction Scheme was initiated in 1929, and over-time introduced more than 5000 species of grasses, legumes and other forage and browse plants (Cook & Dias 2006). Lonsdale (1994) suggested that, in tropical Australia, 13% of introductions have become a problem, with only 5% being considered useful for agriculture. Low (1997) suggested that 5 out of 18 of Australia's worst tropical environmental weeds were intentionally introduced as pasture grasses. The spread and dominance of invasive grass species that degrade the quality of pastures for production can impact significantly on the livelihoods of small proprietors. Although Livestock grazing contributes only a small percentage to the world's GDP (1.5%), maintaining the long-term stability of this industry is crucial because of the high social and environmental consequence of a collapse. One billion of the world's poor are dependent on livestock grazing for food and income with this industry occupying more than 25% of the world's land base (Steinfeld et al. 2006). The ling-term sustainability of livestock grazing is also crucial for the environment. A recent FAO report attributed livestock production as a major cause of five of the most serious environmental problems: global warming, land degredation, air and water pollution, and the loss of biodiversity (Steinfeld et al. 2006). For these reasons, finding more effective approaches that guide the sustainable management of pastures is urgently needed. In Australia more than 55% of land use is for livestock grazing by sheelp and/or cattle. This land use dominate in the semi-arid and arid regions where rainfall and soil conditions are marginal for production (Commonwealth of Australia 2004). Although the level of agriculture production by conglomerates is increasing, the majority of livestock grazing within Australia remains family owned and operated (Commonwealth of Australia 2004). The sustainability of production from a grazed pasture is dependent on its botanical composition (Kemp & Dowling 1991, Kemp et al. 1996). In a grazed pasture, the dominance of an invasive grass species can impact on the functional integrity of the ecosystem, including production and nutrient cycling; wwhich will in turn, affect the income of proprietors and the ability of the system to recover from disturbance and environmental change. In Australia, $0.3 billion is spent on weed control in livestock production, but despite this substantial investment $1.9 billion is still lost in yield as a result of weeds (Sinden et al. 2004). In this paper, we adaprt a framework proposed for the restoration of degraded rainforest communities (Lamb & Gilmour 2003, Lamb et al. 2005) to compare and contrast options for recovering function integrity (i.e. a diverse set of desirable plant species that maintain key ecological processes necessary for sustainable production and nutrient cycling) within pasture communities dominated by an invasive grass species. To do this, we uase a case-study of the invasion of Eragrostis curvula (Africal lovegrss; hereafter, Lovegrass), a serious concern in Australian agricultural communities (Parsons and Cuthbertson 1992). The spread and dominance of Lovegrass is a problem because its low palatability, low nutritional content and competitiveness affect the livelihood of graziers by reducing the diversity of other plant species. We conclude by suggesting modifications to this framework for pasture ecosystems to help increase the effiency of strategies to protect functional integrity and balance social/economic and biodiversity values.

Test, test, test, transmedia

In this 1972 documentary, The Computer Generation, by John Musilli, artist Stan Vanderbeek talks about the possibility of computers as an artist tool. My aim with drawing on this documentary is to compare the current state of transmedia with previous significant changes in media history, to illustrate how the current state of transmedia is quite diverse.