Bayesian computation via empirical likelihood

Approximate Bayesian computation has become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models when the likelihood function is numerically unavailable. However, the well-established statistical method of empirical likelihood provides another route to such settings that bypasses simulations from the model and the choices of the approximate Bayesian computation parameters (summary statistics, distance, tolerance), while being convergent in the number of observations. Furthermore, bypassing model simulations may lead to significant time savings in complex models, for instance those found in population genetics. The Bayesian computation with empirical likelihood algorithm we develop in this paper also provides an evaluation of its own performance through an associated effective sample size. The method is illustrated using several examples, including estimation of standard distributions, time series, and population genetics models.

Empirical modelling of the relationship between bus and car speeds on signalised urban networks

Vehicle speed is an important attribute for the utility of a transport mode. The speed relationship between multiple modes of transport is of interest to the traffic planners and operators. This paper quantifies the relationship between bus speed and average car speed by integrating Bluetooth data and Transit Signal Priority data from the urban network in Brisbane, Australia. The method proposed in this paper is the first of its kind to relate bus speed and average car speed by integrating multi-source traffic data in a corridor-based method. Three transferable regression models relating not-in-service bus; in-service bus during peak; and in-service bus during off peak periods with average car are proposed. The models are cross-validated and the interrelationships are significant

A critical analysis of crisis escalation models : understanding stages and severity in infrastructure disturbance

A range of authors from the risk management, crisis management, and crisis communications literature have proposed different models as a means of understanding components of crisis. A generic component of these sources has focused on preparedness practices before disturbance events and response practices during events. This paper provides a critical analysis of three key explanatory models of how crises escalate highlighting the strengths and limitations of each approach. The paper introduces an optimised conceptual model utilising components from the previous work under the four phases of pre-event, response, recovery, and post-event. Within these four phases, a ten step process is introduced that can enhance understanding of the progression of distinct stages of disturbance for different types of events. This crisis evolution framework is examined as a means to provide clarity and applicability to a range of infrastructure failure contexts and provide a path for further empirical investigation in this area.

An IEEE 802.11p empirical performance model for cooperative systems applications

IEEE 802.11p is the new standard for Inter-Vehicular Communications (IVC) using the 5.9 GHz frequency band, as part of the DSRC framework; it will enable applications based on Cooperative Systems. Simulation is widely used to estimate or verify the potential benefits of such cooperative applications, notably in terms of safety for the drivers. We have developed a performance model for 802.11p that can be used by simulations of cooperative applications (e.g. collision avoidance) without requiring intricate models of the whole IVC stack. Instead, it provide a a straightforward yet realistic modelisation of IVC performance. Our model uses data from extensive field trials to infer the correlation between speed, distance and performance metrics such as maximum range, latency and frame loss. Then, we improve this model to limit the number of profiles that have to be generated when there are more than a few couples of emitter-receptor in a given location. Our model generates realistic performance for rural or suburban environments among small groups of IVC-equipped vehicles and road side units.

Spreading peak demand for urban rail transit through differential fare policy : a review of empirical evidence

More evenly spread demand for public transport throughout a day can reduce transit service provider‟s total asset and labour costs. A plausible peak spreading strategy is to increase peak fare and/or to reduce off-peak fare. This paper reviews relevant empirical studies for urban rail systems, as rail transit plays a key role in Australian urban passenger transport and experiences severe peak loading variability. The literature is categorised into four groups: a) passenger opinions on willingness to change time for travel, b) valuations of displacement time using stated preference technique, c) simulations of peak spreading based on trip scheduling models, and: d) real-world cases of peak spreading using differential fare. Policy prescription is advised to take into account impacts of traveller‟s time flexibility and joint effects of mode shifting and peak spreading. Although focusing on urban rail, arguments in this paper are relevant to public transport in general with values to researchers and practitioners.

Data requirements of hedonic models in determining the impact of infrastructure charges on new housing costs

The use of hedonic models to estimate the effects of various factors on house prices is well established. This paper examines a number of international hedonic house price models that seek to quantify the effect of infrastructure charges on new house prices. This work is an important factor in the housing affordability debate, with many governments in high growth areas having user-pays infrastructure charging policies operating in tandem with housing affordability objectives, with no empirical evidence on the impact of one on the other. This research finds there is little consistency between existing models and the data sets utilised. Specification appears dependent upon data availability rather than sound theoretical grounding. This may lead to a lack of external validity with model specification dependent upon data availability rather than sound theoretical grounding.

Structuring acyclic process models

This article studies the problem of transforming a process model with an arbitrary topology into an equivalent well-structured process model. While this problem has received significant attention, there is still no full characterization of the class of unstructured process models that can be transformed into well-structured ones, nor an automated method for structuring any process model that belongs to this class. This article fills this gap in the context of acyclic process models. The article defines a necessary and sufficient condition for an unstructured acyclic process model to have an equivalent well-structured process model under fully concurrent bisimulation, as well as a complete structuring method. The method has been implemented as a tool that takes process models captured in the BPMN and EPC notations as input. The article also reports on an empirical evaluation of the structuring method using a repository of process models from commercial practice.

Empirical modelling of rolling shutter effect

We propose and evaluate a novel methodology to identify the rolling shutter parameters of a real camera. We also present a model for the geometric distortion introduced when a moving camera with a rolling shutter views a scene. Unlike previous work this model allows for arbitrary camera motion, including accelerations, is exact rather than a linearization and allows for arbitrary camera projection models, for example fisheye or panoramic. We show the significance of the errors introduced by a rolling shutter for typical robot vision problems such as structure from motion, visual odometry and pose estimation.

Conceptualising business models : definitions, frameworks and classifications

The business model concept is gaining traction in different disciplines but is still criticized for being fuzzy and vague and lacking consensus on its definition and compositional elements. In this paper we set out to advance our understanding of the business model concept by addressing three areas of foundational research: business model definitions, business model elements, and business model archetypes. We define a business model as a representation of the value logic of an organization in terms of how it creates and captures customer value. This abstract and generic definition is made more specific and operational by the compositional elements that need to address the customer, value proposition, organizational architecture (firm and network level) and economics dimensions. Business model archetypes complement the definition and elements by providing a more concrete and empirical understanding of the business model concept. The main contributions of this paper are (1) explicitly including the customer value concept in the business model definition and focussing on value creation, (2) presenting four core dimensions that business model elements need to cover, (3) arguing for flexibility by adapting and extending business model elements to cater for different purposes and contexts (e.g. technology, innovation, strategy),(4) stressing a more systematic approach to business model archetypes by using business model elements for their description, and (5) suggesting to use business model archetype research for the empirical exploration and testing of business model elements and their relationships.

Theorizing the use of multiple conceptual models in combination

Conceptual modelling continues to be an important means for graphically capturing the requirements of an information system. Observations of modelling practice suggest that modellers often use multiple conceptual models in combination, because they articulate different aspects of real-world domains. Yet, the available empirical as well as theoretical research in this area has largely studied the use of single models, or single modelling grammars. We develop a Theory of Combined Ontological Coverage by extending an existing theory of ontological expressiveness of conceptual modelling grammars. Our new theory posits that multiple conceptual models are used to increase the maximum coverage of the real-world domain being modelled, whilst trying to minimize the ontological overlap between the models. We illustrate how the theory can be applied to analyse sets of conceptual models. We develop three propositions of the theory about evaluations of model combinations in terms of users’ selection, understandability and usefulness of conceptual models.

Empirical vehicle-to-vehicle pathloss modeling in highway, suburban and urban environments at 5.8GHz

In this paper, we present a pathloss characterization for vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications based on empirical data collected from extensive measurement campaign performed under line-of-sight (LOS), non-line-of-sight (NLOS) and varying traffic densities. The experiment was conducted in three different V2V propagation environments: highway, suburban and urban at 5.8GHz. We developed pathloss models for each of the three different V2V environments considered. Based on a log-distance power law model, the values for the pathloss exponent and the standard deviation of shadowing were reported. The average pathloss exponent ranges from 1.77 for highway, 1.68 for the urban to 1.53 for the suburban environment. The reported results can contribute to vehicular network (VANET) simulators and can be used by system designers to develop, evaluate and validate new protocols and system designs under realistic propagation conditions.

Mentor feedback : models, viewpoints and strategies

A mentor’s feedback can present professional insights to allow a mentee to reflect and develop practice. This paper positions two models for feedback that have emanated from empirical studies. It also demonstrates the diverse viewpoints of mentors and suggests strategies for providing quality feedback. In one qualitative study, 24 mentors observed a final-year preservice teacher through a professionally video-recorded lesson and wrote their observations towards giving feedback to the potential mentee. Tables illustrated in the paper, show that mentors’ positive feedback and constructive criticisms vary considerably on the same observed events. Data from this study were synthesised to posit a theoretical model for analysing mentor feedback in an interconnected, three-way Venn diagram, namely: visual, auditory and conceptual frames. Another study (n=28), which is a collection of mentor teachers’ work samples during the Mentoring for Effective Teaching (MET) program, provides strategies within six feedback practices, that is: (1) negotiated mentor-mentee expectations for providing feedback on practices, (2) reviewing teaching plans, (3) arranging for observations of practices, (4) providing oral feedback, (5) providing written feedback, and; (6) presenting opportunities for the mentee to evaluate teaching practices with consideration of the mentor’s feedback. For example, on the last mentioned practice (6) there were strategies such as “Plan a time for evaluation of practices (guided reflection)”, “Read the mentee’s reflection on practice and discuss how it aligns with your observations of their practices”, and “Highlight verbally and/or in writing where the mentee is perceptive about the reflection and how the reflection could be enhanced for future evaluations”. Developing a range of strategies that may assist the mentee in professional growth, include enlisting a community of mentors, ensuring mentors have a repertoire of strategies for articulating feedback, and using mentor feedback tools and models. This study has implications for the development of feedback models and strategies.

Empirical modelling of the relationship between bus and car speeds on signalised urban networks

Vehicle speed is an important attribute for analysing the utility of a transport mode. The speed relationship between multiple modes of transport is of interest to traffic planners and operators. This paper quantifies the relationship between bus speed and average car speed by integrating Bluetooth data and Transit Signal Priority data from the urban network in Brisbane, Australia. The method proposed in this paper is the first of its kind to relate bus speed and average car speed by integrating multi-source traffic data in a corridor-based method. Three transferable regression models relating not-in-service bus, in-service bus during peak periods, and in-service bus during off-peak periods with average car speed are proposed. The models are cross-validated and the interrelationships are significant.

Local music repertoire and the digitization of the international music industry: An empirical analysis 1994 – 2013

In some of the countries where there has been a rapid increase in the use of online music distribution technologies, analysts have reported about declining sales of local music repertoire (e.g. Nordgård, 2013). The analysts are concerned about such tendencies since local music repertoire accounts for a sizable share of an average country’s total recorded music sales (e.g. IFPI, 2012). This paper searches for empirical evidence that may confirm these reports in a number of music markets in North America, Europe and Australasia. The paper makes a contribution to the literature on the digital transformation of the music industry since it combines and analyses data sources that previously have not been used in this context and gives a new perspective on changing user consumption practices in the music industry. The paper also examines the variation of geographic diversity over time among international acts that become commercially successful in the countries covered by the study.

Estimating the parameters of stochastic volatility models using option price data

This article describes a maximum likelihood method for estimating the parameters of the standard square-root stochastic volatility model and a variant of the model that includes jumps in equity prices. The model is fitted to data on the S&P 500 Index and the prices of vanilla options written on the index, for the period 1990 to 2011. The method is able to estimate both the parameters of the physical measure (associated with the index) and the parameters of the risk-neutral measure (associated with the options), including the volatility and jump risk premia. The estimation is implemented using a particle filter whose efficacy is demonstrated under simulation. The computational load of this estimation method, which previously has been prohibitive, is managed by the effective use of parallel computing using graphics processing units (GPUs). The empirical results indicate that the parameters of the models are reliably estimated and consistent with values reported in previous work. In particular, both the volatility risk premium and the jump risk premium are found to be significant.