672 resultados para Prediction theory


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The purpose of this book by two Australian authors is to: introduce the audience to the full complement of contextual elements found within program theory; offer practical suggestions to engage with theories of change, theories of action and logic models; and provide substantial evidence for this approach through scholarly literature, practice case studies together with the authors' combined experience of 60 years.

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Building information models are increasingly being utilised for facility management of large facilities such as critical infrastructures. In such environments, it is valuable to utilise the vast amount of data contained within the building information models to improve access control administration. The use of building information models in access control scenarios can provide 3D visualisation of buildings as well as many other advantages such as automation of essential tasks including path finding, consistency detection, and accessibility verification. However, there is no mathematical model for building information models that can be used to describe and compute these functions. In this paper, we show how graph theory can be utilised as a representation language of building information models and the proposed security related functions. This graph-theoretic representation allows for mathematically representing building information models and performing computations using these functions.

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The Queensland University of Technology Research Team has recently edited a book on the idea of information experience. Authors from many parts of the world and focussed on many contexts have contributed chapters. The book represents the first attempt to profile and discuss information experience as a research domain and a research object, together with emphasis on different theories and methods being used in workplace, educational and community contexts. In this session members of the editorial team will introduce the book. We anticipate it will be of interest to any information professionals, students or researchers interested in understanding peoples' information experience.

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INTRODUCTION: The shortage of nurses willing to work in rural Australian healthcare settings continues to worsen. Australian rural areas have a lower retention rate of nurses than metropolitan counterparts, with more remote communities experiencing an even higher turnover of nursing staff. When retention rates are lower, patient outcomes are known to be poorer. This article reports a study that sought to explore the reasons why registered nurses resign from rural hospitals in the state of New South Wales, Australia. METHODS: Using grounded theory methods, this study explored the reasons why registered nurses resigned from New South Wales rural hospitals. Data were collected from 12 participants using semi-structured interviews; each participant was a registered nurse who had resigned from a rural hospital. Nurses who had resigned due to retirement, relocation or maternity leave were excluded. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and imported into NVivo software. The constant comparative method of data collection and analysis was followed until a core category emerged. RESULTS: Nurses resigned from rural hospitals when their personal value of how nursing should occur conflicted with the hospital's organisational values driving the practice of nursing. These conflicting values led to a change in the degree of value alignment between the nurse and hospital. The degree of value alignment occurred in three dynamic stages that nurses moved through prior to resigning. The first stage, sharing values, was a time when a nurse and a hospital shared similar values. The second stage was conceding values where, due to perceived changes in a hospital's values, a nurse felt that patient care became compromised and this led to a divergence of values. The final stage was resigning, a stage where a nurse 'gave up' as they felt that their professional integrity was severely compromised. The findings revealed that when a nurse and organisational values were not aligned, conflict was created for a nurse about how they could perform nursing that aligned with their internalised professional values and integrity. Resignation occurred when nurses were unable to realign their personal values to changed organisational values - the organisational values changed due to rural area health service restructures, centralisation of budgets and resources, cumbersome hierarchies and management structures that inhibited communication and decision making, out-dated and ineffective operating systems, insufficient and inexperienced staff, bullying, and a lack of connectedness and shared vision. CONCLUSIONS: To fully comprehend rural nurse resignations, this study identified three stages that nurses move through prior to resignation. Effective retention strategies for the nursing workforce should address contributors to a decrease in value alignment and work towards encouraging the coalescence of nurses' and hospitals' values. It is imperative that strategies enable nurses to provide high quality patient care and promote a sense of connectedness and a shared vision between nurse and hospital. Senior managers need to have clear ways to articulate and imbue organisational values and be explicit in how these values accommodate nurses' values. Ward-level nurse managers have a significant responsibility to ensure that a hospital's values (both explicit and implicit) are incorporated into ward culture.

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This paper examines the impact of allowing for stochastic volatility and jumps (SVJ) in a structural model on corporate credit risk prediction. The results from a simulation study verify the better performance of the SVJ model compared with the commonly used Merton model, and three sources are provided to explain the superiority. The empirical analysis on two real samples further ascertains the importance of recognizing the stochastic volatility and jumps by showing that the SVJ model decreases bias in spread prediction from the Merton model, and better explains the time variation in actual CDS spreads. The improvements are found particularly apparent in small firms or when the market is turbulent such as the recent financial crisis.

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AN ENGINEERING Workshop was held from 21 to 24 November 2006 in Veracruz, Mexico. Forty delegates from 12 countries attended the workshop on theory and practice of milling and diffusion extraction. This report provides a general overview of activities undertaken during that workshop which consisted of five technical sessions over two days with presentations and discussions plus two days of field and factory visits. Topics covered during the technical sessions included: power transmissions, cane preparation, diffusers, mills, and a comparison of milling and diffusion.

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Product Ecosystem theory is an emerging theory that shows that disruptive “game changing” innovation is only possible when the entire ecosystem is considered. When environmental variables change faster than products or services can adapt, disruptive innovation is required to keep pace. This has many parallels with natural ecosystems where species that cannot keep up with changes to the environment will struggle or become extinct. In this case the environment is the city, the environmental pressures are pollution and congestion, the product is the car and the product ecosystem is comprised of roads, bridges, traffic lights, legislation, refuelling facilities etc. Each one of these components is the responsibility of a different organisation and so any change that affects the whole ecosystem requires a transdisciplinary approach. As a simple example, cars that communicate wirelessly with traffic lights are only of value if wireless-enabled traffic lights exist and vice versa. Cars that drive themselves are technically possible but legislation in most places doesn’t allow their use. According to innovation theory, incremental innovation tends to chase ever diminishing returns and becomes increasingly unable to tackle the “big issues.” Eventually “game changing” disruptive innovation comes along and solves the “big issues” and/or provides new opportunities. Seen through this lens, the environmental pressures of urban traffic congestion and pollution are the “big issues.” It can be argued that the design of cars and the other components of the product ecosystem follow an incremental innovation approach. That is why the “big issues” remain unresolved. This paper explores the problems of pollution and congestion in urban environments from a Product Ecosystem perspective. From this a strategy will be proposed for a transdisciplinary approach to develop and implement solutions.

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While existing multi-biometic Dempster-Shafer the- ory fusion approaches have demonstrated promising perfor- mance, they do not model the uncertainty appropriately, sug- gesting that further improvement can be achieved. This research seeks to develop a unified framework for multimodal biometric fusion to take advantage of the uncertainty concept of Dempster- Shafer theory, improving the performance of multi-biometric authentication systems. Modeling uncertainty as a function of uncertainty factors affecting the recognition performance of the biometric systems helps to address the uncertainty of the data and the confidence of the fusion outcome. A weighted combination of quality measures and classifiers performance (Equal Error Rate) are proposed to encode the uncertainty concept to improve the fusion. We also found that quality measures contribute unequally to the recognition performance, thus selecting only significant factors and fusing them with a Dempster-Shafer approach to generate an overall quality score play an important role in the success of uncertainty modeling. The proposed approach achieved a competitive performance (approximate 1% EER) in comparison with other Dempster-Shafer based approaches and other conventional fusion approaches.

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This work deals with estimators for predicting when parametric roll resonance is going to occur in surface vessels. The roll angle of the vessel is modeled as a second-order linear oscillatory system with unknown parameters. Several algorithms are used to estimate the parameters and eigenvalues of the system based on data gathered experimentally on a 1:45 scale model of a tanker. Based on the estimated eigenvalues, the system predicts whether or not parametric roll occurred. A prediction accuracy of 100% is achieved for regular waves, and up to 87.5% for irregular waves.

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This paper proposes a physically motivated reappraisal of manoeuvring models for ships and presents a new model developed from first principles by application of low aspect-ratio aerodynamic theory and Lagrangian mechanics. The coefficients of the model are shown to be related to physical processes, and validation is presented using the results from a planar motion mechanism dataset.

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Complex behaviour of air flow in the buildings makes it difficult to predict. Consequently, architects use common strategies for designing buildings with adequate natural ventilation. However, each climate needs specific strategies and there are not many heuristics for subtropical climate in literature. Furthermore, most of these common strategies are based on low-rise buildings and their performance for high-rise buildings might be different due to the increase of the wind speed with increase in the height. This study uses Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to evaluate these rules of thumb for natural ventilation for multi-residential buildings in subtropical climate. Four design proposals for multi-residential towers with natural ventilation which were produced in intensive two days charrette were evaluated using CFD. The results show that all the buildings reach acceptable level of wind speed in living areas and poor amount of air flow in sleeping areas.